1. Covid vaccine from China will soon ending its final clinical trial these month, and seek approval for wide administration. US vaccine may delay a month later after China. All in, vaccine will be available by end of these year and mass production next year onward

2. Vaccination need syringe

3. Every vaccination need single use disposable Syringe

4. Every person need 2 vaccination

5. Worldwide, at least few billion people need vaccination, especially, entire US, European population are mandatory for vaccination

6. Syringe is disposable and sterile. Manufactured from
polypropylene/polyethylene.

7. Lctitan 80% product is polypropylene/polyethylene

8. Lctitan feedstock, naphtha is at multiyear low level due to oversupply crude oil. Crude oil will unlikely rebound back to above USD 50 in near future due to travel restriction, limiting large portion of crude oil product, jet fuel, petrol usage in the world

Lcitian Profit margin is derive from crack spread between feedstock price, naphtha and product price, polypropylene, polyethylene, butadiene.

Any crack spread above production cost is pure profit to Lcititan. In the previous result, lotte only manage to reap about 5-7% net profit margin. If the crack spread widen to 15%, lotte net profit will increase 200%

Russia's Sputnik V vaccine not working......the Russia covid case is in V shape case high now

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/russia/

LCtitan is undervalue stock, 75% market price is back by net cash, PE valuation is unjustified too low for upcoming V-shape earning recovery

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkstTUGCYXE

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/beyondfit-mask/the-beyond-fit-face-mask-custom-fit-3d-printed-and-reusable

Supermax will declare share dividend 1 for 45 these month, translate into final 21.5sen dividend

Supermax = top glove (mark to market ASP hike in manufacture) + prolexus (beyondfit mask) + own distribution brand

bought supermax at 9.55-9.56

Crack spread between naphtha and resin is key determinant. Another Hurrican on track to hit US petro hub again

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/06/weather/hurricane-delta-tuesday/index.html

Lotte Q result to be release these month is very important, it serve as real recovery in profit margin forward. The real test on impact ASP hike to profit margin, EPS > 10sen will serve as major catalyst for Lotte to breakout year high level RM 2.55

If wan to wait for share to go back to IPO price RM 6.50, you may need to wait for another 2-3 year till completion of its mega project line petrochemcial plant in Indonesia which is 2 x higher capacity. The line mega project is main reason Lotte raise fund of RM 3.5 billion from previous IPO.

sold back FGV at 1.04

sold back BP at 48sen

While many personal protective equipment (PPE) related stock have outperform several hundred % gain, the most important raw material (polypropylene and butadiene rubber) supplier LCtitan still far laggard behind.

1. Nitrite glove, vinyl glove,
2. face mask (polymer layer in 3 ply mask act as filtration against virus),
3. face shield,
4. eye goggle,
5. Syringe (will be on mass demand once vaccine available, every single person in the world for vaccinated, need twice injection, huge demand for disposal syringe)
6. Other healthcare plastic bag use for hazard, container etc

In upcoming Q result, lotte may declare interim dividend with dividend reinvestment share to rectify public spreading issue which have deadline until 23 Jan 2021.

Remark: Bursa Securities had vide its letter dated 7 July 2020 approved a further extension of time of 6 months until 23 January 2021 to comply with the public shareholding spread requirement pursuant to Paragraph 8.02(1) of the Main Market Listing Requirements.

As at the date hereof, the public shareholding spread of LCTH is 23.97%, which is below the minimum public shareholding spread requirement.

The Company wishes to inform that LCTH proposes to establish a Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (“DRS”) that provides shareholders with an option to elect to reinvest their dividends declared by LCTH (if any), in lieu of receiving cash, to facilitate the Company to address the shortfall in its public shareholding spread.

add all margin capital to LCtitan at 2.16-2.17

bought back FGV at 1.03

sold back jcy at 74.5sen

sold back at 1.72-1.73

add last LCtitan at 2.26-2.27

sold back FP at 1.06

downside limited, CPO regain positive, still above RM 2800

bullish

higher high, bullish

bought back JHM at 1.67-1.68

bought D&O at 1.04

bought back all JCY at 72-72.5sen

bought back LCtitan at 2.15

bought back BP at 44.5sen

sold back topglove at 8.82-8.85

Trump and wife test positive for Covid-19 (updated

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2020/10/02/trump-and-wife-test-positive-for-covid-19

Hopefully these wave of rebound trigger by trump indeed can surpass above RM 10

Trump quarantine, may diagnosed infected. Glove stock back on radar

add all margin at 8.61-8.62

bought topglove at 8.66-8.67

cut at 1.04 first

Most of the FGV CPO production are use for in house purpose, refine to produce cooking oil. FGV newly venture into downstream cooking oil, under in house brand, Saji, is now command nearly 40% of entire market share.

FGV operating cost breakeven level is at RM 2200, anything surplus above these threshold level is pure net profit.

Based on average CPO price for Q3 about RM 2750, the estimate EPS for upcoming Q result is 4sen

USDA reports large declines in U.S. grains stocks, lifting prices for soybeans, corn and wheat
Published: Sept. 30, 2020 at 1:00 p.m. ET
By Myra P. Saefon

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday reported big declines in U.S. stocks of soybeans, corn and wheat from year-ago levels. The Grain Stocks report showed U.S. soybean stocks at 523 million bushels, down 42% from Sept. 1, 2019. Corn stocks were down 10% from a year ago at 2 billion bushels and all wheat stocks were down 8% at 2.16 billion bushels, the USDA data showed. The report revealed "unexpectedly large declines," leading to a rally in prices for the grains, said Sal Gilbertie, president and chief investment officer at Teucrium Trading. November soybeans SX20, +0.07% traded at $10.26 a bushel, up 33 cents, or 3.4%. December corn CZ20, +0.85% added 16 cents, or 4.4%, to $3.80 3/4 a bushel and December wheat WZ20, -1.42% added 30 1/2 cents, or 5.5%, to $5.80 a bushel.

The WRO does not have any material financial and operational impact on FGV Group

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3092680

It is worth reiterating that FGV does not tolerate any form of human rights infringements or criminal offense in its operations. FGV pays serious attention to any allegation of physical or sexual violence as well as intimidation or threats, and as a responsible company any case of such nature will be acted upon by FGV including by reporting them to the relevant authorities.

Recognising that respecting human rights is a continuous endeavour, FGV became a participating company of the Fair Labor Association (FLA) and is currently implementing a long-term and comprehensive action plan under its affiliation to the Fair Labor Association (FLA) that comprises a number of initiatives to further strengthen various aspects of our labour practices such as our recruitment process, human rights training programmes, working and living conditions, as well as grievance mechanisms, among others. FGV’s action plan for 2020 was adopted on 31 March 2020 in consultation with the FLA and with various other stakeholders including civil society organisations (CSOs).

The action plan was adopted at a time when the COVID-19 situation was rapidly worsening globally, including in Malaysia. Despite the unprecedented challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced FGV to realign its priorities to ensure that necessary measures are taken to curb and combat the spread of COVID-19, FGV remained committed to implementing the action plan, and FGV believes that concrete progress has been made in the six months of implementation beginning April 2020. FGV is confident that it is on the right track to be able to accomplish the action items due to be completed by the end of 2020.

FGV’s affiliation to the FLA is subject to a rigorous validation exercise and public reporting. FLA’s report on FGV’s progress on the implementation of the action plan is published on FLA’s website.

Since August 2019, FGV been communicating with CBP through our legal counsel and have submitted evidence of compliance of labour standards as committed by FGV. It will continue to engage with CBP to clear FGV’s name, and is determined to see through its commitment to respect human rights and uphold labour standards.

FGV Holdings Berhad

FGV Holdings Berhad (“FGV”) refers to the Withhold Release Order (WRO) issued by the United States Customs and Border Protection (“CBP”) against palm oil and palm oil products made by FGV.

FGV would like to emphasise that all issues raised have been the subject of public discourse since 2015 and FGV has taken several steps to correct the situation. FGV’s efforts are well documented and available in the public domain.

FGV is disappointed that such decision has been made when FGV has been taking concrete steps over the past several years in demonstrating its commitment to respect human rights and to uphold labour standards. As mentioned in our statement dated 26 September 2020, various efforts have been carried out by FGV in honouring such commitment, including the following:

i. FGV continues to strengthen its procedures and processes in the recruitment of migrant workers. FGV has established four One-Stop Centres in Malaysia and in source countries namely in India and Indonesia, as part of our efforts to strengthen the pre-departure and post-arrival orientation programmes for our migrant workers. Through these orientation sessions, our migrant workers are briefed on various matters including the terms of their employment, job scope and nature of work, rights and responsibilities, as well as benefits and entitlements.

ii. FGV has also adopted its Guidelines and Procedures for the Responsible Recruitment of Migrant Workers in 2019 in accordance with international standards and will continue to strengthen the document. Under the Guidelines, FGV is committed to paying official costs associated with the recruitment of migrant workers, which include airfare and costs for work permit, visa, medical check-up and insurance. FGV has also revised its contract with recruitment agencies to require them to ensure that no fees are charged on the workers.

iii. FGV is not involved in any recruitment or employment of refugees. Effective 2020, FGV recruits its migrant workers mainly from India and Indonesia through legal channels and processes recognised and approved by the authorities of Malaysia and the source countries. As of August 2020, FGV has 11,286 Indonesian workers and 4,683 Indian workers, who together, form the majority of FGV’s plantation workforce. Furthermore, FGV does not hire contract workers and all workers are employed directly by FGV.

iv. FGV is also pioneering the implementation of the electronic wallet (e-wallet) cashless payroll system for its plantation workers. The e-wallet system, which gives empowerment to the workers, acts as a more convenient and efficient way for workers to manage their finances, was successfully rolled out since February 2020 in Gua Musang, Kelantan, involving 1,500 registered users in 11 of its estates. By first quarter 2021, FGV aims to implement this system for its entire plantation sector including estates in Sabah and Sarawak.

v. FGV does not practice the retention of its workers’ passports and has installed a total of 32,250 safety boxes throughout all its 68 complexes, as an option for migrant workers to keep their passports safely.

vi. In fulfilling the rights of workers to adequate housing, FGV has over the past three years, invested approximately MYR350 million to upgrade housing facilities for its workers by constructing new residences in our plantations all over the country.

vii. FGV respects workers’ right to healthcare through the benefits provided, which cover annual expenses for outpatient care and an unlimited allocation for inpatient treatment.

viii. Mindful that human rights and sustainability standards must be fulfilled throughout our supply chain, FGV has adopted a Supplier Code of Conduct (SCOC), outlining the principles and standards relating to sustainability; business ethics and integrity; safety, health and environment; and labour, with which our suppliers and vendors are required to comply. Any supplier or vendor that do not comply with the SCOC will be subjected to FGV’s Supplier Delinquency Guidelines, with the possibility of being suspended or terminated and blacklisted should they fail to demonstrate willingness to rectify gaps in their practices.

bought maxiumum FGV, all at 1.05

India: US$5.4 billion (21.9% of total palm oil imports)
China: $4.1 billion (16.7%)
Netherlands: $1.7 billion (6.9%)
Spain: $1.2 billion (4.8%)
Italy: $1.1 billion (4.3%)
United States: $1 billion (4.1%)
Russia: $668 million (2.7%)
Malaysia: $549.3 million (2.2%)
Germany: $517.5 million (2.1%)
Japan: $498.1 million (2%)
Pakistan: $458.5 million (1.9%)
Belgium: $376.1 million (1.5%)
Turkey: $373.5 million (1.5%)
South Korea: $348.7 million (1.4%)
Saudi Arabia: $337.4 million (1.4%)

China and india are the biggest importer for CPO, US demand is at tailing as it have its own soybean oil

bought FGV at 1.05

Investment bank that act as Underwriter may now trying to marked up jaks price in order for Jaks to fix higher 5-day weight average volume price for upcoming right share determination

sold JCY at 72-72.5sen, cut first

sold on strength at 2.20-2.21