cut FP group at 1.02, swap to add hibiscus

use all margin line, add all in hibiscus at 63sen

Favco will announce notice of AGM and dividend entitlement date today as AGM is scheduled by 10 of Sept, notice must announce 3 week before excluding weekend

bought uzma at 60sen

bought hibiscus at 61sen

add more jtiasa at 64sen

add more JHM at 1.54-1.56, average down cost

Favco is expect to declare dividend 15sen within these week, dividend yield > 7%

Jtiaasa CPO volume and FFP production on increasing trend, along with increasing CPO price


July 2020 as follows:
1) Fresh Fruit Bunches - 117,676 metric tonnes

2) Crude Palm Oil - 20,936 metric tonnes

3) Palm Kernel - 4,929 metric tonnes

4) Logs - 15,118 cubic metres


June 2020 as follows:
1) Fresh Fruit Bunches - 98,234 metric tonnes

2) Crude Palm Oil - 15,750 metric tonnes

3) Palm Kernel - 3,237 metric tonnes

4) Logs - 24,276 cubic metres



May 2020 as follows:
1) Fresh Fruit Bunches - 73,650 metric tonnes

2) Crude Palm Oil - 12,225 metric tonnes

3) Palm Kernel - 2,358 metric tonnes

4) Logs - 7,291 cubic metres

bought jtiasa at 66sen

sold back at 3.70-3.75

sold back at 70sen

bought favco at 2.03-2.05

bought petron at 3.60

add more JHM at 1.62

bought back lctitan at 1.88

bought coastal at 64.5sen

bought JHM at 1.65-1.67

bought FP group at 1.03-1.04

sold back supermax at 22.90-23.02

In 2020, supermax installed capacity is top 4 with capacity 26.2 billion glove production

In 2021, supermax installed capacity will be top 3 with capacity 36.4 billion glove production, overtake Kossan

In 2022, supermax installed capacity will be top 2 with capacity 48.4 billion glove production, overtake harta.

The highest ASPs have not been reflected this current quarter and we are optimistic that our OBM cum distribution business model will exhibit even healthier performance in the coming quarters.

Next Q result supermax confirm achieved net profit above RM 1 billion.

Supermax recommend 1 for 45 share dividend after bonus share, translate to current yield 50/ share before bonus.

My estimate supermax profit > RM 1 billion seem only can materialize in next Q result due to timing of recognized on ASP hike, the full impact will record in next Q result.

use all margin line, all in supermax at 21.20

Covid-19 has created higher safety and hygiene awareness across all industries. As a result, the medical glove industry is expected to undergo a structural step-up in demand with rising awareness on the importance of hand protection.

Supermax profit can be clearly estimate from its manufacture selling price ASP hike + distribution selling price ASK hike. All you need is just calculator

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/supermax_analystbriefing/2020-07-10-story-h1509856695-_5_JULY_UPDATED_Analyst_Briefing_Report_from_Supermax_Corporation_Berha.jsp

Comparing to top glove ASP hike 15%-20% each month, supermax ASP hike is significant 15-20x higher than top glove selling price https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/supermax_analystbriefing/2020-07-10-story-h1509856695-_5_JULY_UPDATED_Analyst_Briefing_Report_from_Supermax_Corporation_Berha.jsp

1. Jan 2020 Before covid
Manufacture selling price at USD 23/1000pc ( assume USD 23 is manufacture cost of factory operation)
Distribution selling price at USD 37/1000pc. ( assume USD 37 is cost of distribution operation

2. 18 Mar - 15 April
Manufacture selling price marked up to USD 50/1000pc, ASP hike 117%
Distribution marked up selling price up to USD 50/1000pc, ASP hike 43%

3. 15 April - 15 May
Manufacture selling price marked up to USD 70/1000pc, ASP hike 205%
Distribution marked up selling price to USD 80/1000pc, ASP hike 116%

4. 15 May - 15 June
Manufacture selling price marked up to USD 100/1000pc, ASP hike 335%
Distribution marked up selling price to USD 60/ 1000 pc, ASP hike 62%

Why I estimate supermax profit > RM 1 billion? These is because ONLY Supermax have dual stream of profit generator, manufacture profit and distribution profit. Other top 3 glove maker only derive profit from manufacture selling price with contract order from different external brand customer (OEM)

Supermax manufacture is further divided by OBM (original brand manufacture), manufacture own in house brand glove with independent full control on capacity production and full control over selling price), and OEM ( original equipment manufacture), manufacture on behalf of external glove brand, dependent on external contract value and demand). Supermax have tactically switching higher allocation ratio capacity from 60% OBM: 40% OEM pre covid time to 90% OBM: 10% OEM, essentially withdraw capacity locked in OEM to more capacity to OBM model, therefore enable supermax OBM selling pricing to closely follow spot market, marketing its own glove brand to end user.

Supermax distribution is house under its wholly own, supermax healthcare in which it is responsible to logistic export affair from Malaysia factory, established warehouse management and major distribution hub in 7 oversea center ( Canada, US, Brazil, UK, HK, etc) to cater global market glove demand. In time of demand > supply, these distribution business have ability to marked up selling price to end user.

Supermax have further streamline these distribution division to eliminate all agent, dealer middleman cost, enable these distribution to enjoy full value in supply chain .

1. Jan 2020 Before covid
Manufacture selling price at USD 23/1000pc ( assume USD 23 is manufacture cost of factory operation)
Distribution selling price at USD 37/1000pc. ( assume USD 37 is cost of distribution operation

2. 18 Mar - 15 April
Manufacture selling price marked up to USD 50/1000pc, ASP hike 117%
Distribution marked up selling price up to USD 50/1000pc, ASP hike 43%

3. 15 April - 15 May
Manufacture selling price marked up to USD 70/1000pc, ASP hike 205%
Distribution marked up selling price to USD 80/1000pc, ASP hike 116%

4. 15 May - 15 June
Manufacture selling price marked up to USD 100/1000pc, ASP hike 335%
Distribution marked up selling price to USD 60/ 1000 pc, ASP hike 62%

1. Supermax is manufacturer

2. Supermax distributor, house under Aurelia, is one of the global few glove brands that sources directly from our own manufacturing facilities

3. Supermax is marketer of high-quality medical gloveshttp://aureliagloves.com/products/

Supermax Healthcare is a leading international manufacturer, distributor and marketer of high-quality medical gloves. Currently, Supermax Healthcare exports to over 150 countries throughout the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Asia and the South Pacific. With 11 manufacturing plants equipped with state-of-the-art machinery, energy-saving biomass systems and a research and development center, Supermax Healthcare produces up to 26 billion glove units per year or approximately 12% of the world demand for latex examination gloves.

As a division of Supermax Healthcare, Aurelia® Gloves has been the preferred provider of examination gloves in the North American market since 2000. Our extensive portfolio of innovative Nitrile and Latex gloves are trusted and recognized by healthcare professionals around the world. Aurelia® is also proud to be one of the few glove brands that sources directly from our own manufacturing facilities

Why I estimate supermax profit > RM 1 billion? These is because ONLY Supermax have dual stream of profit generator, manufacture profit and distribution profit.

Supermax manufacture is further divided by OBM (original brand manufacture), manufacture own in house brand glove with independent full control on capacity production and full control over selling price), and OEM ( original equipment manufacture), manufacture on behalf of external glove brand, dependent on external contract value and demand). Supermax have tactically switching higher allocation ratio capacity from 60% OBM: 40% OEM pre covid time to 90% OBM: 10% OEM, essentially withdraw capacity locked in OEM to more capacity to OBM model, therefore enable supermax OBM selling pricing to closely follow spot market selling price.

Supermax distribution is house under its wholly own, supermax healthcare in which it is responsible to logistic export affair from Malaysia factory, established warehouse management and major distribution hub in 7 oversea center ( Canada, US, Brazil, UK, HK, etc) to cater global market glove demand. In time of demand > supply, these distribution business have ability to marked up selling price to end user. Supermax have further streamline these distribution division to eliminate all agent, dealer middleman cost, enable these distribution to enjoy full value in supply chain .

1. Jan 2020 Before covid
Manufacture selling price at USD 23/1000pc ( assume USD 23 is manufacture cost of factory operation)
Distribution selling price at USD 37/1000pc. ( assume USD 37 is cost of distribution operation

2. 18 Mar - 15 April
Manufacture selling price marked up to USD 50/1000pc, ASP hike 117%
Distribution marked up selling price up to USD 50/1000pc, ASP hike 43%

3. 15 April - 15 May
Manufacture selling price marked up to USD 70/1000pc, ASP hike 205%
Distribution marked up selling price to USD 80/1000pc, ASP hike 116%

4. 15 May - 15 June
Manufacture selling price marked up to USD 100/1000pc, ASP hike 335%
Distribution marked up selling price to USD 60/ 1000 pc, ASP hike 62%

Remark: Harta latest Q result only increase selling price at manufacture ASP 5.6%
Remark: topglove in earlier Q result only increase selling price at manufacture ASP 5%

Let do a survey on profit for coming qtr result. See who has the balls to put their name here

1)MYR200mil
a)
b)
2)MYR300mil
a)
b)
3)MYR400mil
a) Goldberg-428m
b)
4)MYR500mil
a)inPeace
b)
5)MYR600mil
a)
b)

6)>MYR700mil
a)Kukuman
b)Pzogro:838m
c)DJoker89 718m
d)Staypositive
e)See2sea
f) blackwhite90
g) MaiKanCheong
h)keyboardman
i) Aramco
J) hng33 ( ASP hike profit from manufacturer )

7) >MYRM1 billion
a) hng33 (ASP hike profit from manufacture + distribution)

The ability supermax to marked up selling price at multiple time higher is due to

1. Original brand manufacture, fully control own manufacture capacity to increase in house glove manufacture in the expense from locked in to external brand contract order, allocation ratio OBM:OEM from 65:35 to 90:10

2. Possess own distribution center, adopt strategy to streamline entire distribution by eliminate external agent, dealer, oversea distribution

ONLY Supermax have dual stream of profit generator, manufacture profit and distribution profit

1. Jan 2020 Before covid
Manufacture selling price at USD 23/1000pc
Distribution selling price at USD 37/1000pc.

2. 18 Mar - 15 April
Manufacture selling price marked up to USD 50/1000pc, ASP hike 117%
Distribution marked up selling price up to USD 50/1000pc, ASP hike 43%

3. 15 April - 15 May
Manufacture selling price marked up to USD 70/1000pc, ASP hike 205%
Distribution marked up selling price to USD 80/1000pc, ASP hike 116%

4. 15 May - 15 June
Manufacture selling price marked up to USD 100/1000pc, ASP hike 335%
Distribution marked up selling price to USD 60/ 1000 pc, ASP hike 62%

Remark: Harta latest Q result only increase selling price at manufacture ASP 5.6%
Remark: topglove in earlier Q result only increase selling price at manufacture ASP 5%

cut LCitian, swap all to supermax

bought back all supermax at 23.06

sold back all dayang ar 1.14-1.15

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

crude oil price up

crude oil price up

Upcoming US stimulus package 3 trillion should boost up recovery economic. Such massive printing US dollar will flush global market, causing weakness in dollar currency. These in turn will increase commodity price such as crude oil, petrochemical product price hike especially butadiene, a feed-stock for nitrite glove

Such massive printing US dollar will flush global market, causing weakness in dollar currency. These in turn will increase commodity price such as crude oil, gold, silver etc

Upcoming US stimulus package 3 trillion should boost up recovery economic

LCtitan main product, butadiene, is the key raw material to produce nitrite glove (synthetic latex glove)

https://www.lottechem.my/products/productGuide_view.asp

Add balance capital all to dayang at 1.05

add more LCtitan at 1.84

bought dayang at 1.04

bought back LCtitan at 1.83

sold back balance at 19.30-19.36