market very bullish. Not joining the party ? or you are still waiting for warren buffet to come and rescue you ?

I bought at 55 sen


Dakewlest I bought at 92.5sen. Hope can go above RM1.00 first.
22/04/2019 9:44 AM

LOL you are a fast learner

Ya must take care of PNB investors

Step no. 1 : swing more goodies to Heitech Padu

X P

I am the successor of Uncle Koon's Golden Rule of "Buying Stocks Which Next Year Earning Is Expected To Be Higher Than This Year", which he himself has abandoned and run away with his new mistress "Buy Stocks With Two Consecutive Quarters of Earnings Increase" (something like that).

So far the Original Uncle Koon Golden Rule works well for me, except 2018, when a broad swath of the economy has been adversely affected. I want to escape also cannot.

As for you people who believe in whatever high quality method, stick to your own way loh. But just be open minded that other people's methods work as well.

When come to investing, nobody has monopoly of wisdom

I dont know lah... I just follow my own method, guided by value, which 99% of the time was EPS based. These few years I made some money to buy KFC. That is good enough.



Posted by (2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip > Apr 21, 2019 4:47 PM | Report Abuse

There are two ways to look at it.

Probability is right from an academic point of view.

I prefer the wb, cm and Seth klarman way.

In investment you don't have to swing at every ball. You can wait and wait and wait for the perfect ball, and when it comes you put everything into it and swing it out of the fences.

The trick is to identify the perfect ball.

My method is simple, when I connect with the ball I swing with full extension, adding more weight and strength as time passes, keeping your form straight and true.

If you do the math, if you can do non spectacularly 20% every year return for 8 years on a few carefully chosen stocks, your returns in the long run is going to be better than someone who did:

+15%
-10%
+70%
-17%
+69%
+47%
+30%
-25%

The math checks out. When Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world, he knew what he was talking about.

When you add the fact that knowing your business well gives you the confidence to reinvest your earnings in bigger and bigger amounts, well then you would know what I am talking.

Capital preservation is about knowing risk. I would argue that excessive diversification invites higher risk ( looking at icon8888 track record) because you just cannot know 35 stocks well enough to see who will end up in MIT and HARVARD.

My style works for me

I am contented

Most people focus on petty things like this.

It reflects your lack of intellect

be guided by EPS. Don’t get distracted by all kind of nonsenses

PP is only bad if it dilutes EPS so badly until at current 77 Sen, jaks has become expensive

I am tired of teaching kindergarten


goodguess
280 posts
Posted by goodguess > Apr 21, 2019 1:54 PM | Report Abuse

Going to have private placement 10% of total share. Can't remember but I think the 3rd time already. The few months upside was to push up for pp price.

No cut loss, unless there is substantial deterioration of fundamentals. In this case, fraud


Posted by anticonman > Apr 21, 2019 1:41 PM | Report Abuse

Jaks dumb-dumb hold no need to cut loss? What if drop back to 60 sen?


anticonman
247 posts

Jaks is utility mah

IPP

Damn, do your home work before Attack

over diversification is bad during normal market, but it makes sense if you buy them during market rock bottom

all the 40 stocks now in my portfolio were bought at rock bottom price early 2019, so all 40 will deliver great return going forward

it is harvesting in batches

to help you to understand better, if I have 40 kids, do I have too many kids ? of course the answer is yes

but what if I tell you all 40 of them will graduate from MIT, HARVARD, CAMBRIDGE AND OXFORD, and then subsequently became billionaires

then 40 kids are a blessing, not a mistake

get what I mean ?



Posted by qqq3 > Apr 21, 2019 1:36 PM | Report Abuse

hahaha................35 - 40 stocks.............how to be KYY?

I am a believer of riding prevailing industry trend. As such, I dont simply cut loss when the stock I hold suffer losses when the industry they are in is still healthy

I just dumb dumb hold and wait for things to improve

(for example : thong guan warrants dropped in 2015 for 20% after reported two consecutive quarters of forex induced losses. however, the overall plastic packaging and export industry still very healthy, so I dumb dumb hold, and it subsequently went up 100% plus)

however, in 2018, when construction sector was thrashed, and I believed it is entering a long winter, I cut loss on HSL, Gadang, etc and switched to equally beaten down stocks that were more promising such as 3A at 80 sen, MBM at 2.20, MFCB WA at 1.10, success at 53 sen, jaks wb at 25 sen, bimb wb at 13 sen, etc

now those stocks are pulling me back from the Abyss

(in 2014, I cut loss on pantech, global oriental, etc and switched to export stocks. as mentioned above, those new stocks delivered 69% realised gain in 2015)

In short, I dumb dumb hold in normal market, but cut loss and drastic reshuffled portfolio during major bear market to reflect new industry trend and directions (to keep portfolio fresh and relevant). It so far worked ok

please tell that to Philips

tell him he is not the only person that know how to punt the market

I am just lazy to shout


Posted by probability > Apr 21, 2019 1:12 PM | Report Abuse

Icon, i still think in reality you made much more than you had stated there...all your stocks like thong guan and johotin were flying...

please note the above was based on realised gain / loss

if based on paper gain, the swing is much more volatile

for example : 2015 paper gain was 105% (even though realised gain was 69%)

I prefer realised gain instead of paper gain because that was real money into my pocket

On realised gain / loss basis :

2011 I made 15% gain,

2012, I made 10% loss (the 2012 loss was because I was extremely aggressive by holding a lot of warrants of pantech, engtex and pjdev. They didn't do well. However, nowadays I don't act so aggressive anymore)

2013, I made whopping 70% gain because those warrants of pantech, engtex and pjdev did extremely well after shrinking in 2012

2014 I made 17% losses because of property and oil and gas downturn. I wasn't immuned.

2015 69% gain (export boom)

2016 47% gain (mostly airasia)

2017 30% gain (mostly airasia, and ekovest also)

2018 25% loss

I tend to male losses when there was a major cyclical downturn (most people do). In 2014, it was property crash and oil and gas melt down. In 2018, almost all sectors got hit (semiconductor, palm oil, construction, steel, even timber in the form of priceworth)

so far I am back to 85% of my 2018 starting portfolio value

that is roughly my track record

I also bought Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com (a mistake), Taiwan Semicon, ASML and IQIYI

interesting few months punting US stocks, I learned so much from that brief period. Subsequently sold most of them to switch my funds back to Malaysia by end 2018 because I saw bull coming to Bursa. US stocks not marginable, so I chose to sell them and punt Bursa.

You got to venture overseas in order to appreciate how mundane Malaysia stocks are. Once you have seen China and US stocks, you will give up the illusion of so called Moat in Malaysia. It is a rare species. Buffetology very difficult to work in Malaysia

my favourite was Xilinx

manufacturer of FPGA, which is also used widely for AI purpose

they announced good result and I jumped in at 80+, now 130+

my Nvidia cost was about USD200

it dropped to lowest 130 ? now rebounced to 186 ?

a great company

I bought it for Artificial Intelligence exposure

Philip's biggest weakness is he doesn't know what he knows, what he doesn't know

He thinks the elephant is flat and thin, after touching the elephant ear



qqq3 Philips.....

I think 5 stocks in 10 years guy cannot understand how and why people make money in Dayang and in Jaks and in many other shares.

U should stick to what u do best, go pick the number 6 stock in 10 years......


in the meantime, Jaks vs Yinson, end of the year, how?


Trading/ speculations is benefiting from the movements in share prices.......There is enough clarity in Jaks to buy and to challenge u.... Jaks vs Yinson, end of the year,

end of the year $ 1.20 cannot meh? I think can one lah......This will be a good year for Jaks.

KC and I are like Neighbours. We know each other Long time already lah

Sometime we see each other in street corner Kopitiam, we gave each other a polite nod

We might differ in some of our views, but we share a common set of language

We respect each other


kcchongnz Sell.
Thank you for re-posting my comments. Yes they are my true comments, exactly what I think about Jaks.

However, I think it is naive to think that that would create hatred icon888 towards me, just because I provide a different opinion, albeit a totally different opinion on a stock.

Good try though.
20/04/2019 4:50 PM

kcchongnz My friendship with icon8888 has been in a long time, that although we may differ in investment ways, we respect each other, at least for me.
20/04/2019 4:58 PM

Doesn't matter. You are one of those fools that I mentioned above

I don't expect you to understand

My prediction is that history will repeat itself. Come end 2019, the sharp tongues will go back to the jungle to hide. I will be sitting on 200% profit, at least

My decision to buy or hold is guided by EPS

I don’t understand why you guys are confused and distracted by so many other things

But it is ok, I thrive on other people foolishness

Such as when I bought wb at 25 sen

A big thank you to those fools. Without you, I would not be able to do so well

I spent half an hour going through past few days discussions

Some sharp tongues said all kind of things, this remind me of Jaks wb at 25 sen early this year. So where are those sharp tongues now ?

Conversely, I am sitting on 100% Profit for wb

Added some WB at 54

Please come down more

I am not done building my position yet

now you know how it tastes


Posted by 3iii > Apr 19, 2019 7:08 PM | Report Abuse


PERHAPS, I should forgive icon8888's arrogance in this post of his.

stop dreaming

are you investing in Bursa or DJ ?

it is true, DJIA has been going up long term

but not Malaysia

How many times do I need to tell you I am not a big fan of timing cycles



Posted by 3iii > Apr 19, 2019 6:31 PM | Report Abuse

By the way, icon8888 migjt have read this book but the true message is not absorbed.

Continuously and repeatedly, Howard Marks stressed his teaching is only applicable on rare occasions in the market. Specifically he mentioned the extremes of the market cycle.

In his lifetime of investing, he has been very correct (100%) in calling the market cycle.

But wait for catch.

Only on 5 times in his long career. Yes, he admitted that those were the 5 times when he was certain of the market cycle. At other times, he is smarter to admit, he didn't know.

You should t keep on telling him he is perfect

He is not

Nobody is

There is room for improvement

Don't be the author of "the end of history"

There is a big world out there


Posted by qqq3 > Apr 19, 2019 6:27 PM | Report Abuse

icon

3iii is not doing the wrong thing u know?

Don't be so rigid and dogmatic

Whatever Howard mark said doesn't bother me . I didn't even watch his video

I am just saying it casually (the bull market until 2020). I could be wrong, doesn't matter. No harm having a view on certain thing, but bear in mind there is not sufficient data to deem it a high probability event



Posted by 3iii > Apr 19, 2019 6:25 PM | Report Abuse

<<<
Icon8888 I think we are still at early stage of bull

will last until end 2020

because US presidential election November 2020

market usually up in election year
19/04/2019 6:17 PM
<<<


I disagree and I agree with Howard Marks in his video.

I think we are still at early stage of bull

will last until end 2020

because US presidential election November 2020

market usually up in election year

dogmatism is a big sin

3iii missed a once in a decade opportunity by failing to act in early 2019 to capitalise on low asset price brought about by the 2018 bear market

my opinion

Dumb dumb hold

When come to timing market cycles, I agree with you it is easy say than done

I am seldom successful in doing that

But we are not arguing about the merit of timing market cycles, we are arguing whether Howard mark holds long term. The answer is NO, because Howard mark times market cycles

yes, when he said ""In 2018, I missed the chance of a lifetime to buy xyz"? , he could means buying in 2018 and hold until 2023. That is the long term by your definition. I have no issue with that.

But that doesn't mean he is not at the same time punting non-long term by riding on cyclical upturns.

I saw an egg on the table, I said, "this is an egg"

you saw an egg on the table, you said "this is the only egg in the world"




Try to travel into the future and look back. In 2023, do you think you are more likely to say,

(1) - "Back in 2018, I wish I'd been more aggressive" or
(2) - "Back in 2018, I wish I'd been more defensive"?

And is there anything today about which you'd be likely to say,
(3) -
"In 2018, I missed the chance of a lifetime to buy xyz"?

>>>


The above are from Howard Mark's book.

It is obvious to me that he asked his readers to think long-term (?5 years).

when Howard Mark said the paragraphs below, he means you should not try to time the market based on days or weeks ("next month")

I wholeheartedly agree with him on that

but that doesn't mean he holds long term like 5 to 10 years

he is silent on that

as a matter of fact, he is against that. If you read his book carefully, you will notice that he thinks it is a mistake to stay defensive when the market is bullish (and conversely, when market is toppish). He advocates adopting a flexible stance, time the MAJOR market cycles (even though might not be successful) and reallocate your assets to protect your gain or generate new gains

it is totally different from your blind blind long term hold strategy




=======================

Howard : IF you frequently try to discern where we are in the cycle in the sense of "what is going to happen tomorrow?" OR "what is in store for us next month?" You are unlikely to find success.

NO one can make fine distinctions like those often enough or consistently right enough to add materially to investment results.

YOU ARE WRONG

How many pages of Howard Mark has you read ? I have read the entire book. You can fool others, but cannot fool me.

When he said " ... positioning portfolios for the major cycles has been a big contributor to Oaktree's success", he is saying that investors should make an effort to time the market cycles (one of the very few gurus who advocates doing so), because he believes that it will make a big difference in enhancing long term performance.

What he means is that when the cycle peaks, you should deleverage or allocate your assets to big caps, which are less volatile. And when everyone is bearish, you should increase your risk appetite.

That is all he has said. He has never mentioned whether you should hold long term or not. He is silent on that (while you are putting words in his mouth saying that he favours longterm-ism).




Posted by 3iii > Apr 18, 2019 6:21 PM | Report Abuse

icon8888


You need to read carefully.

Here is another passage by Howard Mark.


The reasonableness of the effort at cycle timing depends simply on what you expect of it.

IF you frequently try to discern where we are in the cycle in the sense of "what is going to happen tomorrow?" OR "what is in store for us next month?" You are unlikely to find success.

NO one can make fine distinctions like those often enough or consistently right enough to add materially to investment results.


On the other hand, positioning portfolios for the major cycles has been a big contributor to Oaktree's success.





Comment:

What Howard wrote is common sense. I have know of these points for a long time. Tactical asset allocation is not easy to implement except in the extremes of the cycles, i.e. over-exuberant the bubble or the severe bear stages.

one of my major holding

You seldom BS lah. You not from Sabah

Like you say Gkent good pchem good, share price cannot go up, it is all bull shit Loh

May be you should be (Bullshit) Philips

Whatever happens in the interim does not matter. By end 2019, if price is up and I make money, that is what counts

Everything else is bullshit


Posted by (2.6m shares buyback April ) Philip > Apr 18, 2019 7:38 PM | Report Abuse

Share price go up, i dilute my shareholding. Share price go down i dilute less. I put rights issue, price placement, warrants sales, share splits all in the same genre.

Make no bones about it, dilution of shares without growing revenues and earnings is never a good thing.

Only newbies think share dilution is a good thing. Qqq3, call it what it is.

>>>>>>>>>

if they can sell 60 million shares, its good news

Not interested in your article

You have turned out to be a bit of a disappointment for me


Posted by Investor 999 > Apr 18, 2019 6:42 PM | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/investment_advisory_mai/202928.jsp

这篇文章很适合你， 读一读。

很不幸的，你说对了， 我在WB价格0.300 时换去母股了。

Private placement if done properly can be price positive

Place the shares out to syndicate at attractive price, then ask them to goreng

This is standard practice

I am not saying it is going to happen in Jaks case, but keep your mind open

Anything is possible

after selling jaks wb at 29 sen, this fellow has become one of the biggest Jaks sour grape




Investor 999 这是投资银行见了管理层和综合多方面的考虑和讨论而给予顾客的意见。

你们有和管理层讨论过吗？

我感谢与尊重他们的意见。
17/04/2019 12:19 PM

2023

where is the Howard mark quote about long term ?

?

if I am not wrong, they have been in Latin America for long time