HRC fast approaching the grossly oversold position. Margin calls and Contra , all finished ? Then only HRC can go up as weak holders all sold out.

Those CW buyers wanting to ave down, better to buy Mom as when Mom goes up, CW also goes up.

I have done my part, buying HRC ordinary shares instead of CW though I have lots of position in CW and losing thousands !!!

HRC fundamentals has not changed, crack spread still healthy.

Eps for year will be around 3.60. At 13.80rgt, the PE is 3.8 x !!!!

Very low PE for a very profitable company !!

Tai KT, Call warrants value depend on the Mother share !! You can support all the CWs, but if HRC ordinary shares go down, ALL the Call Warrants will go down !!

Conversely, if all Call Warrant buyers concentrate on buying HRC Ordinary shares, then the Mom price will recover gradually . This will then pull up ALL the CWs.!!!

This is a better strategy to counter the IBs, who will lose lots if HRC price is high, as their CWs has higher value, and they have to pay out more.

Many caught by sudden drop of HRC shares. Good strategy is to gather some funds, then buy mother share, NOT call warrants, when the price stabilizes, i.e. small difference is price and oversold.

When HRC ordinary shares recover, all CW will automatically readjust to the higher level.

Am selling all shares that are still profitable, and then average down on HRC ordinary shares.

Believe that averaging down on Call Warrants losses may not be right action though most of us lost a lot on these CW.

I would agree that IB suffers if HRC price high. Up till now, NO Investment Bank has written on Heng Yuan !!!

So when sell down occurs, they, IB create panic, and aggravate situation by force selling those with margin account.

HRC fundamentals still same. No such thing as crack spread down !! Dr David Lim has already done analysis. Only negative is whether HRC has to pay tax on 4 th quarter earnings of around 1.20 rgt.

Those can afford , support Mother share, then CW automatically will follow.

Definitely will rebound, as no other company with such good fundamentals. It does not deserve this sell down. Which company makes more than 1 billion/ year for a 300 million shares. ?

HRC price now is good. People pay good money to have this number for their car. !

Believe it can go up, from 1688, maybe to 1888, or better still 1988 before Chinese New Year !! After all , it already touches 1920.

Even with tax, total eps should still be around 3.50 or 3.60. PE 6x, price will be around RM 20.00

Call warrant CF, has been pushed down and is value for money now.

HRc is not like other China company - like HB global, CSL, etc where many lost money, including me.

Even though they have money, call for rights issue.

HRC auditors can be trusted and management mostly by Ex Shell directors.

Your opinion greatly discourage people who might consider HRC and deprive them of a chance to recover their losses.

Super investor KYY and OTB wont simply put his money if HRC is not the best company in KLSE.!!!!

CW investors of YTL, please be careful. Many lost thousands on the last CW, esp C8, C9, and those expiring end Dec.2017. Main reason is price of Ytl on downtrend from early part of the year. Price fell below the exercise price, thus the CW has Zero value.

I believe it was purposedly pushed down, and now after the CW has expired, the price was pushed up again despite Fundamentals has not changed. Lost tens of thousands on these Call Warrants.

I think other CW good to consider - like Gamuda C 39, Maybank C34.

Newbie, most of us here are Die Hard Heng YUan investors. We are very confident that this is just a minor hiccup.

An army cannot just advance without consolidating its supplies, logistics, etc. HRC has advanced much, and needs to rest before ascending again. Oil Price is the highest for 3 years.

Do tell me another share that has better fundamentals than HRC.

While waiting for HRC, maybe can consider Maybank C-34, and Gamuda C 39. Gamuda has a high chance of break out if you examine the charts.

Maybank CW 34 offers incredible value. Worth to consider.

As Dr David Lim has written, all positive factors are intact. Only thing is whether there will be tax credit still available. However, even if there is 25 % tax , off eps of around 1.40, then 4 th quarter profit will be around RM 1.00.

So total year eps is 2.40 + 1.00 is 3.40. Taking PE of 6x, it will still be higher than 19.20, the highest price reached.

As I have mentioned, the CW after the results announced will be better. CD, CE, CF offers better value and lower premium compared to others.

Be aware of CW that is seldom traded, or has very low volume as it may be difficult to sell when you need it.

Value for money go for CW- CA, CD, CE and CF. Premium very low, around 1 %. Others the premium is higher tho the price is lower.

Noticed that Gamuda CW 39 moving nicely.

HRC has all positive factors, - Forex gain, inventory gain, Crack spread still high, - ave USD 9+, low tax,

At current price for PE less than 5, its still a very,very, good bargain !!

3.60 x pe 6. Rugi , kalau tak beli .

CW after CH, has very high conversion ratio. I still think CK is too over priced.

Other CW that can make money is Vitrox CW, Gamuda C39 and AnnJoo- CW. Ann Joo has not really moved yet despite bullish Steel Sector.

Profited from Vitrox CD, Gamuda - about to break even. Gamuda will surely go up and the CW - C 39, is very cheap with long maturity.

Overall, all loses for past year covered by playing Heng Yuan Call Warrant, of which more is to come as HRC price is still undervalued.

3.60 eps x Pe 6, and still low price. !!!

So far, all Investment Banks have ran away from Heng Yuan. Am still wondering what is/are the reasons.

HRC has the potential to catch up close to Petronas Dagang price as its eps is much higher and PE will go up as profits become consistent

Kindly check which plant is older. To upgrade PETRON refinery costs much more than for Euro 4 upgrade for HRC. HRC plant is not as old as Petron . It is a complex refinery compared to simple refinery like Petron.

Capacity of HRC is higher than Petron. Both will gain from current Oil price, Petron can declare higher dividend whereas HRC needs money for the upgrade.

Price potential wise, believe that HRC results will be exremely good and price may go to 20 rgt. - Eps 3.60 x PE 6x.

OTB subscribers all gain from his reommendations lah. Nobody blame him when he sold HRC as it met his TP.

KLSE market is made up of many types of investors/ traders/ speculators. Some, if not many are ignorant of Rationale/ reason why the share is worth to buy. Explains why CK is over priced due to irrational exuberance with a very high premium. !!!

HRC has many many good reasons to justify a higher price !!Crack Margin spread is still high, above USD 9 for Diesel, Jet fuel, Mogas 95, Naptha, Propylene, etc.

Ringgit appreciating, thus Forex gain. Brent, WTI all went up due to Iran protests and Cold spells in US, Europe, etc. This will result in huge Inventory gain,due to its huge inventory as HRC uses FIFO.

Concur with kYY that 4 th qtr eps could be higher than 3 rd quarter eps of 1.20 rgt. Thus total eps is 3.60 rgt.

Taking a PE of 6x, you will gain by buying at this level. Should PE be re-rated due to consistent profit growth, price will go higher.

Mr Koon, we really appreciate your sharing, on shares and on principles of life.

Reminds me of the saying- to err is only human, but to forgive others is divine. Also politics is important and we all hope for a fair and just government, free of Corruption.

In the case of Heng Yuan- HRC, sometimes even tho we know the fundamentals, yet because of fear of losing money, we are tempted to sell so as not to lose money. This is the case on Friday when it dived from 19.20 to 16.30

However, I would agree and confident that 4 th quarter will be a good quarter for HRC, despite the possibility of HRC having to pay tax on its profit for the whole year.

Total eps for year is conservatively at RM3.60, and conservative PE at 6, will already make nice profit from present Rm 17.14.

A word of caution to Call Warrant traders. I notice at closing there is wide gap between buyers and sellers. If HRC price rising, the selling price will be jacked up much higher by IB so that difficult for you to buy. Conversely, when HRC price going down, the buying price is very low quoted by Inv Bankers as they are the Market Makers which can manipulate the prices.

Call warrant CK is overpriced as its premium is over 30 % compared to others with low premium of less than 3 %. Bargain CW are- CA, CD, CE and CF. Hope this will help those with low capital to profit on HRC.

BY believing in HRC, I have recovered tens of thousands of losses from the market. Fundamentals of HRC has not changed, in fact it is stronger now, with higher Crude prices and cold weather overseas.

Monday may see price going up as HRC has stopped falling, and slowly moving up.

Good closing. After two days fall, today up and shows small candle. Storm affecting UK, France plus Iran factor causing Crude price to go up.

HRC will get good Inventory gain, as they have huge stocks, which if they sell, will reduce borrowings to large extent. Diesel price up, Crack spread still maintain at around USD 9+, as well as for other products like Jet Fuel, Kerosene, Mogas 95, etc.

Our currency strengthening, so will have forex gain.

Noticed that for CE and CF, Investment Bankers Kenanga, RHB pushed up the selling price so that quite difficult to buy as price difference is high. These call warrants quite a bargain as very low premium and maturity after results out.

Hope HRC plrice will go up on Monday. Whole year conservative EPS of 3.60rgt is definitely achievable!! PE of 6x is also very very low for a high growth company with ROE of above 60%.

Price has already touched 19.20 rgt., but has never closed beyond RM 17.96 as there is strong resistance for 18 rgt closing.

For charts not to remain toppish, Price must close above17.96.!!

Call Warrant CD seldom traded ? Rhb IB as market maker should give B/S quotes..

Anyway, fair value at this price should be around 31 to 32 cents.

Tomorrow price may go down, but then later, towards closing may rebound. Monday is generally bullish !
Have calculated the break even value of CK warrant. Conversion Ratio: 18:1, 18 x .715= 12.87. Exercise price is 10.50, Add 10.50 = 23.37 rgt.

At Expiry, 24/7/2018, if HRC less than RM23.37, then you will lose your money !!!

A prudent investor will change to CI, or CH which has less premium, only around 6% compared to around 38 % !!!!

CD, CE, CF better still, less premium and more sensitive to HRC price movement.

Is this high premium of CK showing potential of HRC, can touch 24 rgt in few months time ?

Remember,HRC is a complex refiner, Diesel , Kerosene, crack spread maintained at USD 9+, and Motor Gasoline 95, Mogas 95 sustainable at above USD 8. Ringgit strengthening, Crude Oil Prices up, thus Inventory gain.

RM 3.60 Eps x 6 PE =21 rgt !!!

Up till now, I still wonder why all the Investment Banks keep silent on Heng Yuan?

There is absolutely no write up or official comments on HRC !!! Only TA securities made a comment that the buying was overdone.

I believe HRC fundamentals are still there and has not changed. Should HRC use tax credit to offset taxation, eps for the year is conservatively estimated at 3.60 rgt.

WTI, and Brent price at a high, Mogas 95 stable, Diesel, Kerosene up, thus HRC as complex refiner still enjoy stable Crack spread on average of USD 9+.

Those playing CW, premium will increase when Mom price drops. So CK will be above 40% !!!

Just download klse screener apps and you will see the premium.

If you can afford, the best is CA, CD. Then at lower price is CE and CF. CE and CF expiry is after after end year profit announced !!

CC is not tradeable, and CG is rarely traded or volume very low. At the very least is CH if you cant afford others.

Should you hold CK, take profit, change to other cheaper premium call wrt, or buy Mom, since price is lower.

As always, 3.60 eps x 7 pe, will give you TP before CNY!!!

Some Call Warrants are cheap now, but not CK, a whopping nearly 40% premium. Those playing this CW need their heads to be examined !!!

Ck call warrant valuation is absurd at 36 % premium.

Good if you have justification, as 3.60 eps x PE 7x, so around 22 rgt, should be fine.

Brent, WTI price , near all time high. HRC probably has no tax as they still have tax credit.

Still think Eps for year , conservative is 3.60 rgt x PE 7x, = Around 22 rgt would still be OK, but has room to go higher if PE re rated.

Agree that everyone is entitled to have own opinion. There are always 2 sides of a coin.

Anyway, I just dont understand the rationale of people buying Call Warrant CK. Fair value of HRC nearly 23 rgt to justify the price.

Dont they know the high ratio, and the high premium compared to other CW ?
HRC, possible to touch RM 20 by CNY , and give good AMG Pow to those who believe in it.

Call warrant traders, CK is highly overvalued at 30 % premium !!

From todays chart, looks like HRC can go further up as it is almost similar to Thursday, before the sell off on Friday.

I am not a TA xpert. Just my opinion. Normally correction will extend for a few days. Check past corrections.

It is better to buy bit by bit, rather than all at one go, meaning when price go lower,U can buy more if you are confident that HRC fundamentals still there.i.e. 3.60 eps/yr..

After all weak holders have sold, or when volume done is less, then price may slowly go up bit by bit. This is reversal, and the trend is bullish if higher highs and higher lows. Confidence takes time to rebuild.

The other method, buy on break out means buying when it is higher than 19.20, which to me is not so smart as you are paying more. If you bought at 16.30, then you are able to sell b4 it reaches 19 rgt. waiting

Actually, many waiting for correction as they missed the boat. To me, this selling gives opportunity for many to enter at a low price. We wont know when is the bottom before it goes up, we just have to risk it. Using candlestick or other chart patterns like a hammer,plus confirmation will be good.

For those buying Call Warrant, please check the premium. Some CW are ridiculously high, and some are very low and a bargain as it is pushed lower by the IB.

Bearish engulfing candle, so price may go down.

Noticed IB purposedly push prices down at 4.45pm , resulting in wide gap between buyers and sellers for CE, CF.

They are the market makers and they are caught, so wants the price to go down !!!

When you see 500 buyers, 500 sellers, they are at work, dictating the market price.

Profit taking healthy. Before going up, it goes down.

Fundamentals of HRC does not change. EPS for 2017 is RM 3.60 the least.

CK is highly overvalued !! 18 x 62 = 11.16 + 10.50 = RM 21.66 !!!

Divided by closing of 17.96 =3.70 difference/17.96 = 21 % Premium.


Obviously somebody got carried away, or typed wrongly !!

PE 7x, Year eps is 3.60, i.e 2.40 + 1.20 ( 4 th qtr ), so RM 25 loh.!!

After KYY write up, modest target of middle path is ;3.60 eps x 7x PE, = RM 25. I know lots of people have sold at or around RM17.

Now there are more buyers, so TP of 18 reachable by tomorrow !! Can price above be reachable by CNY ?

To me, HRC fundamentals are very strong and solid and should not warrant price going to below 10, unless and until unwanted incidence happens - like - fire, tsunami, earthquake, unexpected shut downs, etc.

Initially I was very sceptical, and refused to believe even tho OTB asked us to buy as early as below 7 RGT.!!

After reading, poring over the various blogs and reading the Annual Report, then only tried to buy a bit. By then, price has gone up to almost 10 rgt !!

Losing money in the market due to lots of losses, decided to take a risk. Sold off most of my losing shares and concentrate major portion of capital on HRC.

The rest is history. since then recovered all my losses. Amen.

Investee, Call warrants are unlike company warrants which can be converted to mother share, and thus dilute the eps.

They CW are issued by IB that makes money from the issuance. CW no need get time consuming approval from authorities.

They are cash settled on maturity by calculating the intrinsic value versus market value. They are like Options in US market.

After HRC published in Xinhua news, noticed that the daily gains were much higher. China Funds buying, and to them this price is really dirt cheap.

December coming to an end, and all the positive factors still remain intact. We can safely estimate that 4 th quarter eps will be 1.20 rgt, if not more. Thus, total eps is RM 3.60 for year. Based on present Petron Malaysia PE of 8, then present price is still LOW.!!

For those who dont want to miss the boat, and aware of the risk, but also know the potential rewards, can try buying Call warrants since coughing up RM 1,650 is difficult for 1 lot.

CA, CD is the best. After this comes CE, CF call warrant based on the lower the premium and the lower the conversion ratio the better. CH price, should theoretically be below CF, but at present almost equal although it is 12: 1.

Noticed that CC is very seldom traded, and CG always low volume traded, and wide range exist among buyers and sellers.

For New Year and CNY Ang Pow, take a calculated risk!!! No risk, no gain right ? If price falls below the support, cut loss. this type of opportunity seldom happen.

However, looking at HRC pattern, price goes down only a little, but shoots up very fast. This is despite no write up from Investment Bankers, aka Fund Managers. !!! This is a very great mystery.

As always, the Final Decision is yours to make.

Fantastic day. Seems 18 rgt within reach. 3.60eps x pe 5. China funds, and locals buying.

Up till today, still wondering why Inv Banks do not dare to do a write up on HRC, but Public Invest wrote on Petron.

Why ah ? Scared if they do write up, price can only go higher due to strong fundamentals?

Brent Crude at all time high !!

Two write ups in one day, no wonder price go up like rocket.!!!

One is local Edge news, the other in China, - Xinhua news. So it entices local and Chinese investors to go in.

Ringgit 18, within reach, i.e. PE 5x, EPs of 3.60 per year. These figures are very, very conservative estimates only.

Capital gains from shares are not taxable !!

Very undervalued. Price can only go higher is people know more about the value of Inari shares it holds and the business it is in.

Lost tons of money on YTL and Atta, but thanks to HRC, managed to cover all my losses !!!

Coming to the next year, I believe HRC can still deliver as the EPS of RM 3.60 is the highest in BUrsa. It is still Tax Free.

ROE of 65%, so far nobody can beat it, as paid up is only 300 million.

Considering 2017 as a whole, Return of around 15 % is still not bad.

Share with strong fundamentals. PE is very low. High profits. Very transparent in their reporting as in the bullish Steel sector.

A Gem that is waiting for right time to move. Fair value should be RM 1.00

Met an Ex Shell employee of over 20 years recently and discussed about HRC. He did not oppose my views on all the positive factors given, but cautioned that Petronas project coming onstream later, and their serious financial position may have an effect on HRC.

As KYY said, the price is on high side and not everybody can afford it. So it certainly is institutions buying as it is a Huge bargain to get such a high quality stock with an ROE of above 65 %. eps 3.60/ nta of 5.52.

Linggi at Melaka will become major port of call when completed. Thus HRC is strategically located to benefit from the many ships plying the route and requiring fuel.

Dec 2017 coming to an end and so far Brent price is above RM 60, and crack spread average is above USD 9/++ Ringgit appreciates, so forex gain, the huge inventory also gained much as Crude oil is high.

So many positive factors. Very sure 4 th quarter eps will be above RM 1.20. Conservative estimate at low PE is still 3.60 x 5 = RM 18 rgt.

Please confine to HRC and not to promote other shares. so far no negative news, but lots of positive news for HRC.

Please have a summary for those who wrote in Chinese so others can follow. Thank YOu.

Hope those new to this HRC forum, will read up first . There were many detailed explanations given. Suffice to say HRC is in good hands and is a good share to hold.

At present it is undergoing correction. First , it was shooting Star, leading many to sell as this is bearish. Later , an engulfing candle appeared, which is a bullish indicator.

Many hoping price will go down further, but it is yet to be seen. You can punt on this share by using Call Warrant, which is cheaper than buying Mom.

Dont buy CW based on lowest price as the conversion ratio is high, - 20:1. Check on the premium and maturity.

Never buy CW that is not liquid, few buyers, few or no sellers. Most liquid CW, may not be the best choice as it may be overvalued. Choose lowest premium, but fairly liquid with sufficient time before maturity.

Well written. Hopefully HRC will not disappoint many. Present scenario is, how much it will fall, before climbing back. Will it be below 14 rgt ?

KYY still buying. thus, all forumers can consider what he said.

If can hold longer, better, price will go up.

RM3.60 eps, PE 10x, therefore, new TP 36 rgt !!!

Apa macam, Heng Yuan Boleh !!!

Sold CH too soon when premium went higher compared to other CW !!!

Remember, it is a cash settled warrant, IB will finally pay you for its

Intrinsic Value, and NOT the premium when CW matures.!!!

Awet91, are you aware of the conversion ratio of CK ? Try not to go for cheap CW, but look at the details, especially the premium, i.e. value you pay for , over the intrinsic value.

Still believe now time for CE, Cf to move !!! CH has already jumped a lot, and has to rest, ha ha.

Anyway, PetronM has advantage over HRC in that it now has no debt, can declare higher dividend, and earnings can touch 50 cents or higher this quarter, plus it has its retailing arm.