Brent, WTI price , near all time high. HRC probably has no tax as they still have tax credit.

Still think Eps for year , conservative is 3.60 rgt x PE 7x, = Around 22 rgt would still be OK, but has room to go higher if PE re rated.

Agree that everyone is entitled to have own opinion. There are always 2 sides of a coin.

Anyway, I just dont understand the rationale of people buying Call Warrant CK. Fair value of HRC nearly 23 rgt to justify the price.

Dont they know the high ratio, and the high premium compared to other CW ?
HRC, possible to touch RM 20 by CNY , and give good AMG Pow to those who believe in it.

Call warrant traders, CK is highly overvalued at 30 % premium !!

From todays chart, looks like HRC can go further up as it is almost similar to Thursday, before the sell off on Friday.

I am not a TA xpert. Just my opinion. Normally correction will extend for a few days. Check past corrections.

It is better to buy bit by bit, rather than all at one go, meaning when price go lower,U can buy more if you are confident that HRC fundamentals still there.i.e. 3.60 eps/yr..

After all weak holders have sold, or when volume done is less, then price may slowly go up bit by bit. This is reversal, and the trend is bullish if higher highs and higher lows. Confidence takes time to rebuild.

The other method, buy on break out means buying when it is higher than 19.20, which to me is not so smart as you are paying more. If you bought at 16.30, then you are able to sell b4 it reaches 19 rgt. waiting

Actually, many waiting for correction as they missed the boat. To me, this selling gives opportunity for many to enter at a low price. We wont know when is the bottom before it goes up, we just have to risk it. Using candlestick or other chart patterns like a hammer,plus confirmation will be good.

For those buying Call Warrant, please check the premium. Some CW are ridiculously high, and some are very low and a bargain as it is pushed lower by the IB.

Bearish engulfing candle, so price may go down.

Noticed IB purposedly push prices down at 4.45pm , resulting in wide gap between buyers and sellers for CE, CF.

They are the market makers and they are caught, so wants the price to go down !!!

When you see 500 buyers, 500 sellers, they are at work, dictating the market price.

Profit taking healthy. Before going up, it goes down.

Fundamentals of HRC does not change. EPS for 2017 is RM 3.60 the least.

CK is highly overvalued !! 18 x 62 = 11.16 + 10.50 = RM 21.66 !!!

Divided by closing of 17.96 =3.70 difference/17.96 = 21 % Premium.


Obviously somebody got carried away, or typed wrongly !!

PE 7x, Year eps is 3.60, i.e 2.40 + 1.20 ( 4 th qtr ), so RM 25 loh.!!

After KYY write up, modest target of middle path is ;3.60 eps x 7x PE, = RM 25. I know lots of people have sold at or around RM17.

Now there are more buyers, so TP of 18 reachable by tomorrow !! Can price above be reachable by CNY ?

To me, HRC fundamentals are very strong and solid and should not warrant price going to below 10, unless and until unwanted incidence happens - like - fire, tsunami, earthquake, unexpected shut downs, etc.

Initially I was very sceptical, and refused to believe even tho OTB asked us to buy as early as below 7 RGT.!!

After reading, poring over the various blogs and reading the Annual Report, then only tried to buy a bit. By then, price has gone up to almost 10 rgt !!

Losing money in the market due to lots of losses, decided to take a risk. Sold off most of my losing shares and concentrate major portion of capital on HRC.

The rest is history. since then recovered all my losses. Amen.

Investee, Call warrants are unlike company warrants which can be converted to mother share, and thus dilute the eps.

They CW are issued by IB that makes money from the issuance. CW no need get time consuming approval from authorities.

They are cash settled on maturity by calculating the intrinsic value versus market value. They are like Options in US market.

After HRC published in Xinhua news, noticed that the daily gains were much higher. China Funds buying, and to them this price is really dirt cheap.

December coming to an end, and all the positive factors still remain intact. We can safely estimate that 4 th quarter eps will be 1.20 rgt, if not more. Thus, total eps is RM 3.60 for year. Based on present Petron Malaysia PE of 8, then present price is still LOW.!!

For those who dont want to miss the boat, and aware of the risk, but also know the potential rewards, can try buying Call warrants since coughing up RM 1,650 is difficult for 1 lot.

CA, CD is the best. After this comes CE, CF call warrant based on the lower the premium and the lower the conversion ratio the better. CH price, should theoretically be below CF, but at present almost equal although it is 12: 1.

Noticed that CC is very seldom traded, and CG always low volume traded, and wide range exist among buyers and sellers.

For New Year and CNY Ang Pow, take a calculated risk!!! No risk, no gain right ? If price falls below the support, cut loss. this type of opportunity seldom happen.

However, looking at HRC pattern, price goes down only a little, but shoots up very fast. This is despite no write up from Investment Bankers, aka Fund Managers. !!! This is a very great mystery.

As always, the Final Decision is yours to make.

Fantastic day. Seems 18 rgt within reach. 3.60eps x pe 5. China funds, and locals buying.

Up till today, still wondering why Inv Banks do not dare to do a write up on HRC, but Public Invest wrote on Petron.

Why ah ? Scared if they do write up, price can only go higher due to strong fundamentals?

Brent Crude at all time high !!

Two write ups in one day, no wonder price go up like rocket.!!!

One is local Edge news, the other in China, - Xinhua news. So it entices local and Chinese investors to go in.

Ringgit 18, within reach, i.e. PE 5x, EPs of 3.60 per year. These figures are very, very conservative estimates only.

Capital gains from shares are not taxable !!

Very undervalued. Price can only go higher is people know more about the value of Inari shares it holds and the business it is in.

Lost tons of money on YTL and Atta, but thanks to HRC, managed to cover all my losses !!!

Coming to the next year, I believe HRC can still deliver as the EPS of RM 3.60 is the highest in BUrsa. It is still Tax Free.

ROE of 65%, so far nobody can beat it, as paid up is only 300 million.

Considering 2017 as a whole, Return of around 15 % is still not bad.

Share with strong fundamentals. PE is very low. High profits. Very transparent in their reporting as in the bullish Steel sector.

A Gem that is waiting for right time to move. Fair value should be RM 1.00

Met an Ex Shell employee of over 20 years recently and discussed about HRC. He did not oppose my views on all the positive factors given, but cautioned that Petronas project coming onstream later, and their serious financial position may have an effect on HRC.

As KYY said, the price is on high side and not everybody can afford it. So it certainly is institutions buying as it is a Huge bargain to get such a high quality stock with an ROE of above 65 %. eps 3.60/ nta of 5.52.

Linggi at Melaka will become major port of call when completed. Thus HRC is strategically located to benefit from the many ships plying the route and requiring fuel.

Dec 2017 coming to an end and so far Brent price is above RM 60, and crack spread average is above USD 9/++ Ringgit appreciates, so forex gain, the huge inventory also gained much as Crude oil is high.

So many positive factors. Very sure 4 th quarter eps will be above RM 1.20. Conservative estimate at low PE is still 3.60 x 5 = RM 18 rgt.

Please confine to HRC and not to promote other shares. so far no negative news, but lots of positive news for HRC.

Please have a summary for those who wrote in Chinese so others can follow. Thank YOu.

Hope those new to this HRC forum, will read up first . There were many detailed explanations given. Suffice to say HRC is in good hands and is a good share to hold.

At present it is undergoing correction. First , it was shooting Star, leading many to sell as this is bearish. Later , an engulfing candle appeared, which is a bullish indicator.

Many hoping price will go down further, but it is yet to be seen. You can punt on this share by using Call Warrant, which is cheaper than buying Mom.

Dont buy CW based on lowest price as the conversion ratio is high, - 20:1. Check on the premium and maturity.

Never buy CW that is not liquid, few buyers, few or no sellers. Most liquid CW, may not be the best choice as it may be overvalued. Choose lowest premium, but fairly liquid with sufficient time before maturity.

Well written. Hopefully HRC will not disappoint many. Present scenario is, how much it will fall, before climbing back. Will it be below 14 rgt ?

KYY still buying. thus, all forumers can consider what he said.

If can hold longer, better, price will go up.

RM3.60 eps, PE 10x, therefore, new TP 36 rgt !!!

Apa macam, Heng Yuan Boleh !!!

Sold CH too soon when premium went higher compared to other CW !!!

Remember, it is a cash settled warrant, IB will finally pay you for its

Intrinsic Value, and NOT the premium when CW matures.!!!

Awet91, are you aware of the conversion ratio of CK ? Try not to go for cheap CW, but look at the details, especially the premium, i.e. value you pay for , over the intrinsic value.

Still believe now time for CE, Cf to move !!! CH has already jumped a lot, and has to rest, ha ha.

Anyway, PetronM has advantage over HRC in that it now has no debt, can declare higher dividend, and earnings can touch 50 cents or higher this quarter, plus it has its retailing arm.

iFag, if can afford, of course CA and CD. If looking for value, then can buy CE, CF. CG is good but liquidity is a problem as it is thinly traded.

CH, which was highlighted by me, has gone up too high.

Try to download KLSE screener apps, it is a very, very useful apps !!! It calculates the premium and ratio of the call warrants.

Thomas, Tech stocks are still hot - Inari, Penta, VS, Vitrox. Penta has insider selling shares, so not so good. You can consider Vitrox CD at around 25 cents.

Try to look at Leon and Masteel, Choo Bee cos steel sector should be OK also.

Today, took some profit, but still holding some shares. Will be buying when HRC undergoes consolidation.

Thomas, buy Vitrox call warrant, cheap.

Also, steel stocks , especially LeonFB, and Masteel.

Gamuda C 39 is also extremely cheap. I bought at much higher price.

Happy, we beat Petron, ha ha ha.!!! Heard HRC may consider granting people and Analyst for briefing. After IB write up, guess ?

If that happens, guess 18 rgt can be reached early !! I think value wise, CE, CF better as lower ratio.

Fat CNY AngPow !! Siapa boleh kasi right !!

Still not to late to go to HRC call warrant. Conservative eps 4 th qtr for HRC is RM 1.20, so total yr eps is RM 3.60

At PE 5x, value should be RM 18.

Asked traders buy CH, now jumped lots. Time to go for HRC CE, and CF which is fairly valued for its long maturity, after HRC results known by end February.

Anyway, have also bought some PetronM shares.

Thomas Han, did you buy the call warrant ?

Alamak, told some HRC CH undervalued. Now, vroom like rocket !! Sayang, sold too early!!

Now Ch overvalued. Time for CE, and Cf to move. Wanna Join ?

Thks Sifu OTB, KYY !! not forgetting Stock raider for his confidence !!

Target RM 15.50 can be reached by 31/12!!

BY CNY, can reach TP 21 ?

KYY wrote that when all IBs are bullish on certain stocks, maybe time to sell.

So now, there has yet to be a reco by IBs, then it is time to be contrarian and buy1

Richman 96, e mail to Mr Ooi Teik Bee at tbooifx@gmail.com. remember, you also have to do FA and TA before you decide.

sometimes, he also makes mistakes as he has no insider info. But he is good. Asked us to buy Heng Yuan below RM 7, but most hesistated as we think price is already high.

If using 3rd quarter results, then full year eps is RM3.60 !! Believe this is v.conservative estimate.

Already close to end Dec, Oct and NOv , and probably Dec margin spread average USD9+.

Brent Crude, more than USD 60 !! Inventory gain.

Ringgit appreciate, relative to USD, so forex gain.

I think re rating will occur as earnings clearly visible, stable and consistent high profit, and IB takes notice. Fair PE say 7x. Focus and Edge magazines published write up.

Thus, maybe TP of 21 is conservative and have to increase to RM 25 !!

A good Christmas gift and CNY Ang Pow for those who believe and act on it !!

As Hoolahoo mentioned, Heng Yuan is very undervalued, and switching to HRC made me to recover my losses.

Target of 15 rgt is very conservative. Many have Target of 21 rgt !!

Read comments on HRC and you will know the reasons for their optimism .

Mind sharing the basis of your statement that it is undervalued. Thanks.

So far, only Heng Yuan has planned for upgrading to Euro 4M. Petron has yet to do so.

BY the way, many forumers has target of RM21. Can I know the basis of the calculation, is it based on EPS, and PE same as present PetronM ?

At the time Shell sold to HRC, crack margin was almost negative and losing money.

Now it is opposite, and refiners will be making billions of money !! If HRC turns in 1 rgt eps for 4 th quarter, then total year profit, exceeds 1 billion !!! Up to 3 rd quarter already RM2.40 eps.!!

300m paid up share capital of 1 rgt, x eps of 3.40 rgt. Target very, very conservative = RM15.

yes, C31 is cheaper, lower premium and higher volume.

C34 has advantage of longer expiry date, though more expensive by 3x. Premium almost comparable.

People buy CW for their gearing effect, small outlay of capital , and a chance to gain profit, which without CW, you dont have ability to participate.

When HRC ordinary shares go up, in most cases, the CW price will normally go up, UNLESS some force, try to stifle the advance so that they can buy more before price go up !!! Just like accumulation of shares b4 they push price up.

Go to Malaysia warrants com my by Macquire to understand more.

Hai yah, susah susah, just close your eyes lah, buy or trade on paper to understand more OK. You have to pay for your lessons !! I lost a lot on YTL call warrant C8, buying 6 figure amount at 9 cents, but HRC helped me to recover. Be assured , good that not many believe in HRC, otherwise you cant get CW, at such LOW premium !!

Over and out.

Figures too small, and no explanation on charts.

Now only CH starts to move !! Thomashan, you have to do your homework !!! The longer time period, higher the premium cos time has VALUE !!

It is not necesary for premium to increase always. If HRC price increase, but CH does not move, then premium will go down !!

With call warrant, you must always be careful of Market Maker, or the Investment Bank. they sat the pace. there are times you want to sell, at 4.45 pm, , suddenly no buyer at all !!

Then you want to buy, but there are no sellers, so liquidity is important. When call warrants or company warrant close to maturity, tendency for the price to be driven down.

First criteria in buying CW is the lower the premium better. BUT be careful of expiry as trading close 1 wk before expiry. If you hold until expiry, you frust, cos money will be held up for around 3 weeks as I have experienced it many times.

In conclusion, if you have huge capital, buy Mother share. If moderate capital, buy CA or CD as conversion ratio is less than 10:1

However, me, I dont have lots of capital, so I go for cheaper CW, but one with reasonable premium and got time b4 expiry;

Many plus points for HRC. Target of 13, then 15 rgt, is v possible to reach. Margin spread is ave USDollar 9, Ringgit go up, Brent Crude higher than 60 US, high Inventory gain, which if they want can already wipe off all the debts !!!

So, as they say, Apa lagi you takut to go in ? Today Focus has write up on HRC, and CIMB overweight on O and Gas. Barring, fire ( touch wood ), unforeseen maintenance work, derivative loss, USD go up, EPS for last quarter is v conservative , RM1. Total 3.40 rgt for year.

13 and 15 rgt, IMO, HRC boleh !!!

should also consider Heng Yuan.

Heng Yuan still a buy as expected eps for year, v conservative is RM 3.40. Average crack margin at USD 9+, more than last quarter of US 8. At US 8, eps was RM1.20. At US 9 crack margin, eps should be more barring unexpected shut down or maintenance work.

Those with low capital, can try call warrant CH, cheap at around 3 % premium for a long duration till end June 2018. BY then HRC may already touch more than 15 rgt. Premium among lowest, besides CA, and CD.

Other CW follow Mom, go higher. Only CH is below level on December 4 where CH touch 45, 46 cents and is now only 41 cents. !!

Opportunity, when it comes, please grab it before you miss it.

On 4/12, HRC was at RM 11.40 and call warrant CH was at around 45 cents. Now HRC at 12.50 rgt, , but call warrant CH is at ---42 cents!!

So CH still has potential to go up as it is only 3% premium to Mother, for those with low capital.

HRC earnings visibility is v good, and is a complex refiner. Present crack margin is still around 10, compared to latest report average of 8. Brent crude is still over US 50.

At 8 margin, eps is RM 1.20 for 3 rd quarter, so at margin of 10, eps for 4 th quarter is ???

At the present rate, HRC can possibly touch RM 13 before year end.

Forgot to tell you all, so far NO Investment Bank has covered HRC. Just imagine if an IB gives a recommendation to buy HRC, because - very, very low PE, high Cash Flow, highest ROE,high transparency, simple to understand profitability etc.

I believe IB have not collected enough to cover for their call warrant exposure and they are scrambling. Once they have their CW covered, then only will they issue a recommendation to buy.

Worth a try for those brave enough. Price can only go higher from here.

It depends, 100 shares of HRC costs RM1,246. For RM1246, you can buy 3 HRC CD call warrants, each costing RM400, with a gearing of over 2. Risk of Call warrant is higher compared to buying HRC ordinary share.

However, in uptrend, call warrant performance is profitable. 40 cents x 12 =4.80 add 8 rgt Ex Px, gives 12.80, total value, minus present Mom's price of 12.46, Thus premium you pay because you have a chance to participate in Heng Yuan despite price of 12.46, by paying only 40 cents, and valid for long months, is 34 cents divided by Mom 12.46, giving you a premium of over 2% !!!

For me, it is a small price to pay, to give those daring enough to offer an apportunity to get profit.every time HRC go up in price, due to lack of capital !!

Already going to be end of December, and Crack Margin is high, thus barring unforeseen circumstances, a very conservative eps estimate of more than RM1/ for 4 th quarter is very highly achievable.!! Plus HRC has no tax.!!

For those new to call warrant, premium is amount in percentage, the higher price you pay compared to fair value when you convert to Mother share, i.e.- price you pay, times the conversion ratio, then add the exercise price.

CH has the advantage of being a low price, 40 cents, and the premium is low, comparable to CD which is higher price at around 71 cents.

Cheap entry to Heng Yuan if you believe it can go higher,( Rm 15/ possible plus higher percentage gain !!! - Bought many, and will be buying more, i.e. if the price, still never move !!!