Wonder why so many naysayers here. Only SsLee, Probability gives facts and figures that is important. Already PetronM results shows good profit, so why doubt about Heng Yuan results ?

Whole world refiners make lots of profit, why M sia exception ? Share market never go up in straight line, always up, then down a bit. So not surprising even if say eps of RM 2/ share, price goes Down !!! Then later people realize this is good result, price then goes up !! Typical reaction, of Sell on News !!!

look at Hibiscus. After results out, price went down first. Malaysians, always Sell on News, buy on rumours. Then after 1 or 2 days only, price went up !! dont be surprised, Petronm will be like this.

Petron s results will have impact on HYuan s price. Upon good result of HYuan, say 1 rgt/share, or more, will go Limit UP ?

Since Petron results out, high chance Heng Yuan results will be out ESOK. !! SsLee calculations is Fantastic, to the Dot. !! Conservative estimate of RM1 Eps can achieve. Since 10.5 mil barrels of Refined oil is produced, say 2x Petron s, say lah 2X Petrons Eps of 68 cents, so , eps is more than RM 1 !! Also, first time HYuan s price, more than Petron Malaysia. !

SsLee, fantastic calculation !!! Eps of 68 cents. Means half year profit already over RM1 !! Since Refining and plus retail is more stable, present PE is less than 3x !! Rm6/2. Call Warrant CY is very undervalued at less than 10% as Expiry is end of 2022, still long time to go.

Uncle Koon, now Heng Yuan shares going up due to good results. Please join us. Hibiscus is good also, but eps wise, less than HY. Crack spread going down is MoGas 92., and not others. Many are wary of HY as many lost their pants in 2017 as it fell from RM 18 to RM 5. Those playing CWs , like in Gloves, lost more as it is leveraged.

Possible PetronM next to limit up ?

Good day today. Follows world trend of incredible profit of Refining company. Got chance even Hibiscus will announce huge profit due to high Brent Oil price. Thnks to those that believe despite incredible opposition.

Very good day today !! Have to thank Sifu OTB, SSlee, Probability and Zhuge Liang, for the excellent work and Faith in Heng Yuan. As mentioned, even Eps of RM1/ share is enough. Thought slow and steady enough, suddenly Limit UP !!! Incredible Velocity !!

Crude Oil price up, so Petron and HengYuan should do well. With 750 stations and slow to reduce prices when price down, can have inventory gain. HYuan C 24, have gone down a lot, now only 6.5 cents !! Long maturity, worth a try.

Now, Tech Analysis shows good to go in Margin of Safety OK as MM accumulating around RM 4 for a long time before pushing up when astonishing profit announced.

Ha Ha. May our wishes come true. HYuan reach RM 8.88, Call Warrants C 24 reach RM 0.88, and PetronM, Call Wrt, CY also reach 0.88 or at least RM 0.77 !! Hopefully Petron and HengYuan can give bumper dividends.!!

Yes, buying Call Wrt C 24, 25,26. If Heng Yuan goes up to RM7.70, former peak, call warrants will give good profit. Just pray Inv Banks dont push down Mother share to avoid losses as they hate paying to Call Warrant holders. Petron s results wil be out very soon.

Petron Phillipines already reported strong profit thru higher Refining Margins and Retail sales in M sia, Phillipines and trade in Singapore. No reason why Petron will show lower profit. Heng Yuan should also do well as seen in Binh Son astonishing profit.

Petron reported strong refining margin and increase in sales of its products. So like Binh Son in Vietnam and elsewhere, PetronM, and Heng Yuan should do well in the coming 6 or 7 work days results. Petron strong in retail sales and HengYuan from its 10.5 mil production, through its refining process, which has a high crack spread, resulting in huge profits.

For HYuan, there are 3 call warrants, each with difft ratios and difft exercise price. Valuations of CW depends on premiums depending on Maturity and leverage. C 26 only has 30 mil, expiring 2023, C 24, has an issue of 80 mil, expiring also in 2023, but C 25 has best ratio of 4 to 1, with larger issue of 150 mil, but expiring at end October. You will notice most active is C 24, but more responsive to any HYuan price increase is C 25. It is more risky as it is expiring soon, and Inv bank may push down Mother share price to avoid losses on its Call Warrants. Anyway, to be om the conservative side, estd Eps of HengYuan is around RM1/share, anything above is a bonus. If we take Eps of RM3/share and profit is less, like in 2017, prices will plummet cos it did not meet expectations !!

Refineries are a good bet this round as shortage of refiners cos of MCO. PetronM usually release results earlier after parent Co in Phillipines announce group result. HengYuan is complex refiners able to produce Diesel which has higher crack spread, at around 46% of its 10.5 mil barrel / Qtr, but it has to hedge Crude Oil Price and also Prices of Refined Oil where cost of production is USD 2/ barrel. PetronM is simple Refiner where hedging is minimal as it has 750 stations but Mogas 92 crack spread is low for this product. It is expected that HYuan will announce an estimated net profit of RM1/ share, or 300 mil, barring huge derivative losses, like last quarter.

coming results should be good as Oil prices uptrend. 750 petrol station should give good profit as economy recovers. Only thing is it is a simple refinery not a complex refinery like Heng Yuan. KYY just mentioned that Hibiscus is now good, so Oil and refineries should do well.

Hope TSH with its superior planting material and yield, plus explosive value from its Kalimantan land will be a Goldmine to investors. What Calvin says is true as seen in Directors non-stop buying. !! Long Term can reach RM 7 ?

Today, Saudi Aramco reported huge profit of US 88 billion for half year, in World News. Anyway, safer to be on the conservative side of EPS RM 1, for Q2 and Q3/2022. Of course many predict gross profit of RM 1 billion, before hedging losses, operating cost, inventory loss, etc. Number of shares is only 300 million !! Heng Yuan has touched RM 7 before, and RM 10 should be possible as good results will make the PE ratio very low, below 5x.

OTB never badmouthed Heng Yuan . All other refiners reporting awesome profit, why is Malaysia the exception ? Only because many afraid of Derivative loss, or hedging loss. Anyway, better to have low expectations of Eps of Rm1 or Nett profit of 300 mil, Too high expectations of Gross Profit of 1 bil, and when it is lower, price will fall as happen last time HY touch RM17. Thus when profit is more than RM 1, then price will go up.

number of shares only 300 mil, so net profit of RM 300mil will give EPS of Rm 1/ !!! Dont understand why many wants to see HYuan go down to RM2. Even below RM 4/, there will be many buyers. In 2017, even with crack spread of around USD 10-15, price was above Rm 8 !! The most under rated share cos of fear of Derivative loss, which may turn to derivative gain !! Europe, Asia all stupendous gain for Refiners, why is Malaysia exceptional when refining capacity is limited ? Will be like TSH, now only starting to move, watch out. !!

With all good fundamentals, all the way to Rm 1.80. Production of FFb has increased and also plantations in Indonesia has less problems of getting workers. Also products sent to Wilmar for processing, thus Q2/22 will be fantastic.

Stock Win, even an Earnings per Share of RM 1/ is good enough. I remember the last time HY hit RM18, expectations were too high, and when results not up to expectations, price fell !! So it is better to have conservative estimate of EPS. In Europe, oil companies reported superb earnings and so is Vietnam, closer to home. So I guess, eps should not be too far off RM1/.

With all the bullish news, especially Vietnam s refinery super profit, HYuan should do well. Dont understand why crack spread can be so low for MoGas 92, whereas Diesel crack spread is so much higher. Anyway, major HYuan plroduction is Diesel, so should be doing well.

OTB constantly being attacked when he does a posting, so better diam diam. Todays news, India s Reliance getting good profit from Refining. Just wait for Q2 report as U Plt already reported their profit. Even RM 1/ share or RM 300 million net profit is already good enough.
Noticed that heavy bookings of Honda HRV and new Alza will lead to vehicle sales of 630,000 this year, a record. will lead to high Fuel demand. believe that Rm 4 is near bottom, and it is on way up.

Buy signal appeared. Forecast eps for year above RM 2/. Today, hammer appeared, i.e. it went down earlier then reversed up, so good sign. Crack spread still above USD 20.

Nato and Ukraine already said War wont end soon !! Today s Star article bullish on Refineries due to China shutdown. KYY quietly bought HYuan without writing at i3, and then wrote that should have sold. Now asking people to cut loss, possibly for him to average down. Why should investors sell when price is already so low ? Fundamentals will prevail at the end. SsLee wrote that HY do hedging on Crude and Refined Oil to minimize fluctuations in prices and thus, the Derivative loss in Q1 will be lesser in Q2. Hope is impt as it is what kept prisoners alive during WW2 amid hardships in POW camps!! Still believe HY is undervalued as Crack Spread is still above USD 20.!! Cost of production is only USD 2/!!

Petron eps of 40 cents, and 106 mil Later, HYuan will get higher Eps. Go to HYuan to see how OTB calculate the potential EPS for Q1, and how SSLee calculate the potential profit.

Tomorrow HYuan results probably out. With Inventory gain, high Gross Refinery Margin, hope net profit can touch 300 mil, if not more or Eps of RM1. For Q2, crack spread is higher at USD 30, thus profit will be much higher !!

Petron capacity is half of Heng Yuan. So if profit is 106 mil for Q1, maybe Heng Yuan profit will be double. Seems due to Inventory Gain, plus high Gross Refinery Margin, maybe HYuan profit can touch around 300 mil !! with high crack spread of US 30, profit wil be enormous for capacity of 150,000 barrels/ day.

TQ, Vinc3362. Wow, 150,000 barrels per day, x 30 / mth, x USD 30/ barrel will give a very good profit. 4.5 mil barrels/ mth x RM 130/ barrel =RM 580 mil / mth x 3 mths. Do correct if wrong. Enormous profit, yet price is down.

If not wrong Refining capacity of HYuan is 2x PetronM. Capacity is 160,000 barrel per month if not wrong. As calculated above, Nett crack spread is USD 30/ x 4.4 =RM 132/ barrel x 160,000 x 12. Kindly correct if wrong !!

To be fair, OTB puts his reco based on facts and figures as can be seen by the results of other refiners like Reliance in India. Have been a long time subscriber and I find no wrong in him, no doubt lost a bit in HiapTek, MSC and PMBTech. Who can be 100% accurate all the time ? Crack spread is indeed high, and it can be true that HYuan and PetronM fall is due to some CWs maturing, force selling or Short Selling. Look at Hibiscus, eps of 15 cents for a Quarter Year, Net profit of 307 mil and PE of 6X !! His reco on AYS still hold as eps is 6 cents, and PE is only 2X!

Calvin, I too thought of going almost 100% in CPO. However, thinking of all the losses in Steel and Tech shares, and wondering if can cover the losses from the 2 sectors and whether putting all the eggs in 1 basket is risky. !!Anyway , Calvin you have helped many times by your accurate diagnosis and gained a little, but did not heed your warning on Gloves, so suffer great losses as a result !!

Sifu Ooi Teik Bee is spot on when encourage subscribers to go for Bonus issue. Should have more confidence in him and buy more !!! Only MSC suffers from falling price. KYY promoting Subur, but would prefer CPO shares not up yet or consolidating - SHChan, TSH.

At least TSH dont have problem with labour. Also it can sell for other uses compared to Exporting it. Dont forget its land value near to Nusantara.

Thanks for your comments Calvin. So far only bought 3 of the above in small amount, except THPlant. From observation, TaAnn is very good, as it is constantly on the move up and second is HSPlantation which went up after buying within a short time. Seems IOI Corp is responsive to CPO price movement but its price is lagging compared to others. SHChan is also a laggard.

Noticed Cepat and MHC Plantation is not mentioned. Also curious as to how Plantation Companies are taxed - Excess profit Tax when CPO price over Rm3500? Windfall Tax when annual profit above RM 100 million, and normal Tax of 24 % on Net Profit.

When people bullish on Cpo shares, all other cheap shares will also go up, like SHChan, Tdm, RSawit, etc. I have seen it before. Only way most punters can buy KLK, Utd Pltatn shares is through Call Warrants, or company Warrants like KMLoong.

IOI corp, can buy Call Warrant if price is a bit high, esplly C 35. KYY now prefers JTiasa.. Noticed that TaAnn, Inno, uptrend whereas SHChan have not rebounded yet and very cheap. SimePlant has many cheap Call Warrants too. Calvin really helped investors a lot. As early buyer of CPO shares , was not patient enough as CPO did not move for a long time, and thus cut loss on BPlant, TSH, Subur, SOP etc. In May, BPlant and TSH will announce their profit form land sales. Overall as Calvin says, the Nusantara, new Indon capital, will cause a very drastic re-evaluation of land price on TSH land in East Kalimantan. Keep up the good work Calvin of informing Investors. Sometimes we wonder how Tanco with very small profit and Revenue, can have Capitalization of nearly 1bil. Beware.

In 2009, sold my Oil Palm land, 8 years old, Tenera variety, at Geddes Estate, Bahau , besides Agric Road, for Rm40000/ acre. At that time CPO was at 3k/ ton. Thus price per Ha, x 2.471, equals 100k/ Ha. I believe other factors play a part , like forward sales, borrowings, productivity of mature areas, management quality, segment of profit due to Oil Palm, dividend policy, etc. That is why TaAnn, Inno net profit margin is higher than others as it has no borrowings. Subur Tiasa has borrowings and not 100% Oil Palm. If you notice, as Calvin says - IOI Corp has not moved much due to PNB selling tho it has upstream and downstream investments. Another share is SHChan which at this time of high CPO price, its price fell, probably as Smart Money collecting before it goes higher. In 1993, SHChan touches more than RM20.

Not possible for Cpo to tumble below RM 2000 in the near future with what is going around in the world today. No doubt there is a possibility of China planting Oil Palm planting large scale with plants modified to temperate climate to reduce their import of CPO. However there is a long gestation period before it matures. Strike while iron is hot, will still go to the least popular CPO shares like SHChan and IOI Corp which has not really moved up, but in fact is at a low price level. Sooner or later, these shares will move up.

Subur high quarterly eps could be due to extra ordinary items. Also bear in mind that it has high borrowings. A cheaper alternative can be found in Sin Heng Chan, fell from 50 over cents to 40 cents something. Paid up Capital not very high. In 1993, price up to over RM20 !! Anyway another good choice is IOI Plantation as it has large acreage and PNB selling non stop to get money for 10 k withdrawal. One of the few CPO shares that has not moved up, in fact it fell from a high price, despite high Cpo price.

TecGuan only 40 mil shareholders, SHChan has around 290 mil shares and has good profit for the year. Should go up like TecGuan., need KYY to spruce it up ?

remember, SHChan also has good eps for whole year. Price is undervalued, down from 50 over cents. Good fundamentals.

Exercise price is 50 cents, so going down to 50 cents ? Why the sell down unless insider knows results poor ?

Bought at 25 cents, thinking to convert at 50 cents and sell at expected 80 cents at that time. Now price is ONLY 64.5 cents !!!

Means to break even, Bsl Wa should be bought at lowest 14 cents. !!

Results going to be out soon!! Hope results good.

Why interest in this share ?