DickyMe miss the plantation rally cause he is trying to time the market. CPO at RM4,000 he did not buy any plantation counter cause he thought CPO near all time high and going to drop to RM1000 soon. When CPO at RM5000 he did not buy any plantation counter he thought CPO at all time high going to drop to RM1000 soon. Right now CPO at RM6000 he dare not even touch plantation counter or FIFO cause in his mind CPO is going to drop to RM1000 very soon.
Plantation stocks are not in my portfolio and I don't like them. This post is to remind fools of the insane vertical rise and unexpected rejection. From the chart, it is evident that those who bought above RM8000 are already bleeding.
The only sector that I would invest heavily in Bursa Malaysia for long term is plantation. And may be a little bit in property (township) developer, as I see inflation and ringgit depreciation. For banks, we should invest in those countries that the currency is stronger, e.g. Singapore.
This is normal reaction by people with interest. When there is something negative about their interest, they deploy their arsenal to counter the situation for their benefit. However, it would not last long.
if i so confident the FCPO will drop til 1000....i will quietly short FCPO or buy any put warrants and earn 99 quietly rather than write something to warn investors outside and curse them if no believe him..
The way I see it, Sslee is a knowledgeable old timer; Johnzhan is knowledgeable and with experience in oil palm plantations. Their opinions are more trustable than those suddenly came from nowhere and simply shout CPO crash.
How can CPO crash ? Unless Soya oil and canola oil crash ! CPO is trading at > USD200 discount to soya oil now . It is the cheapest option for all the developing and underdeveloped countries amid shortage of sunflower oil . The surge of export volume in March resulting 3% drop in end March inventory level is a very positive sign .
Average CPO price for Q1 2022 was about $6,000. CPO spot price yesterday $6,700. End March CPO inventory at 12- month low is merely about 1 month export volume. Ukraine war prolonged disrupting substantial supply of sunflower oil . EU may even increase the usage of biofuels amid Russian oil sanction pressure. Tell us how the price is crashing soon ?
Most mid cap and small cap plantations sell their production on spot month basis and their realized selling price is very close to spot prices ! This can be easily verified from the realized CPO price in the qtrly reporting. What basis you say spot price is irrational benchmark?
The chart tell you almost nothing fundamentally. The chart doesn’t explain to you all the climactic, social and political factors that has great bearing to the short term, mid term and long term prospect of CPO.
If you lack technical expertise, just say so and don't beat around the bush. What basis?? Read my comment again to find the answer. If you lack understanding of English, ask i3lurker or SsLee to coach you.
John thanks for your input, but I think shouldn't bother with this guy too much, many different type of players in the market, investor should behave like investor, speculator behave like speculator... just wish everyone well
Now, Palm oil reeling below RM5000 and at the brink of breaking RM4000. The long term crash is JUST beginning. By 2025, palm oil will trade below RM2000 when China and India becomes self sufficient with their own palm oil cultivation.
"NEW DELHI/MUMBAI (Reuters) - India is considering raising import taxes on edible oils as the country seeks to become self-reliant by boosting local oilseed production with the help of tax revenues, two government and two industry officials told Reuters.
The tax hike could curb the world's biggest vegetable oils importer's purchases and weigh on Malaysian palm oil (FCPOc3), along with soy and sunflower oil prices, while propping up local prices of oilseeds such as rapeseed, soybean and ground nut. ...... India spends around $10 billion every year on edible oil imports as the country's reliance on overseas purchases have jumped to 70% from 44% in 2001/02.
The latest move is a part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's push toward reducing India's dependence on imports and raising cash to support local production."
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by i3gambler > 2022-04-11 12:31 | Report Abuse
We should not invest in any plantation company base on their latest EPS.
We should check their past EPS record at various CPO prices then, use spreadsheet to predict their EPS if the CPO prices going down to, say 10 years average.
For your information, SWKPLNT should be making EPS 21 sen a year if the CPO going down to the 10 years average, or PE would be only 13 times.