@enning22,

if u make money, do i get any?

so what for i tell u false info when u can double check on the info?

and tell me, m i wrong in saying that there is a surplus of cooking oils out there and the 0-profitability of biodiesel?

unlike @calvintaneng who gave us misleading info that biodiesel that will be profitable and hence be a offtake for palm oil.

@chongyu,

yes, u did mentioned that fertilizer is at a 15-20 yr lows, so dont deny it.

Posted by chongyo > Aug 7, 2017 08:20 PM | Report Abuse

Joetay, I can see that how badly you are mis-informed about production cost of the efficient plantation! Or is it your deliberation to mis-inform others ?

Fertilizer which make up significant portion of the production cost are near 15-20 years low due to global over supply situation. Hope you can do more research on fertilizer prices trend before you shoot your mouth.

how can fertilizer be at a 15-20 yr low when the main ingredients, potash/urea/phosphate price to be almost double of 2000 level???

i m no expert in fertilizer, but i do know that the main ingredients for fertilizer mixing r potash, urea, phosphate and ammonia sulphate.

i just exposed ur wrong info for pricing.

u know why up can be so efficient? the reason is becos their plantations have train tracks for collection which optimized their efficiency and quality. thereby bring their estimated cost of production to be ard rm1.6k/mt.

have a look at ioi and u a back of hand calculation and their costing is ard rm1.7k/mt currently.

the reason why plantation coys r having 50% gross margin in the previous 6mths is becos of the higher cpo prices, not becos of lower costs. if the price of cpo drops below rm2800/mt, do u think they can still enjoy 50% gross profit?

u r assuming that cpo prices will maintain above rm2800/mt and how confident r u that cpo prices will crawl back above this level in the coming 2 mths and maintain till end this yr????

@ks55,

any idea on kip reit???

looks attractive if can buy at below rm0.9

the casino rumor is since 2015 under berjaya hotel group.

@enning22,

yup, the big boys r doing cost of production rm1.7k/mt currently on average. once u add in d&a, it will be ard rm1.8-1.9k/mt

the only plantation company that can do ard rm1.5k/mt is up due to its mechanized train tracks.

@lion88,

parkson has been using aminvest as the banker/broker.

lth has a near 10% stake while epf has ard 2% as in 2015/2016.

not sure abt latest.

@enning22,

u obviously do not know how things work in sarawak.

the big issue facing plantation companies in sarawak is native land rites issues, which can dragged on for yrs and may not be resolved easily.

even if a company works with the state govt via pelita, the company will still get into legal issues. and furthermore, there is the rspo and csr with major mnc to deal with.

thats why u dont see klk or up venturing into sarawak or even ioi expanding its footprint in sarawak since 2006.

@lion88,

really cant give u advice now that u r in.

either u cut and take the loss of rm60k or u stick to the stock in the hope that the privatization story will play out.

like i said b4, the banker has all the cards in a privatization play and if u r in for the turnaround story, it will take a while to play out and the odds may not be favorable.

ok article and but not in-depth enough to understand the crude oil refining biz.

the article neglected to mention in-depth complexity of a refinery and the crude/blended/semi-refined grades used since it will have an impact on refining margin.

another then-popular strategy not mentioned is arbitraging between wti and brent futures.

@chongyu,

if u say my estimate of efficient cost of production for a big planter is wrong, then give us ur estimate then.

i m more than willing to discuss.

@chongyu,

by saying that potash is at near 15-20 yr lows, i know that u r a joker.

current potash price is nowhere near a 15-20 yr lows. however, potash is definitely cheaper from the 2008-2009 level.

potash price is now at usd220/mt, give or take and the low of potash price is ard usd110/mt in 2000.

there, i just expose ur wrong info.

@calvintaneng,

as small holders, ur friends will not be able to provide u with a full and accurate picture.

talk to plantation guys from klk or ioi instead.

they will give u a better picture.

@nikicheong,

maybe true.

but end of the day, the strategy is still a privatization play.

the cards r with the banker, not with the players.

@stock kingdom,

always glad to share info.

@calvintaneng,

thats why i m giving u the cost of production, so u can calculate ur gross margin.

so where is the 50% gross margin????

assuming cpo of rm2.6k/mt and efficient cost of production ard rm1.9k/mt??

@patron,

i wouldnt say @calvintaneng as kena slapped.

more like exposed for false misleading info.

@calvintaneng,

btw, do u know why indian/chinese buyers buy so much peanut/soybean/rapeseed oils as well despite palm oil being at such an attractive discount?

if u have figured out the answer, perhaps u will know why palm oil did not take over the cooking oil market.

@enmning22,

yes, the costing is dependent on how efficient a plantation coy is managed. thats why i gave a range.

but today, with protash @ usd300/mt, increased labor costs and rm4.28:usd1, do u think a production cost of rm1.5-1.6k/mt is still achievable??? nowadays, a plantation-cum-mill manager will be very happy if he can achieve rm1.8k/mt production cost.

the production cost of rm600/mt is a long long time ago, ard the early 1990s.

@calvintaneng,

ur friend's info is 30 yrs ago, that means it is 1987. now is 2017, so the info is outdated by 30 yrs.

do ur friend know that india produces not only peanut but also rapeseed and soybean now????

@calvintaneng,

when wrong info r given, someone will expose it.

same as the misleading info u gave in this thread.

@calvintaneng,

but i have proven ur fundamental analysis on cpo to be flawed, point-for-point.

so do u think u have any credibility????

more bs from @calvintaneng and my point-for-point exposure

1) production cost of cpo is currently rm1.9-2.2k/mt, only normal crushing margin. where is the good 50% margin u talking abt???

2) droughts r in wheat growing areas of us, not in soybean growing areas of us. and dry weather is normal in illinois/iowa during this time of yr.

3) china imports from indo as well and moving into autumn and winter, the demand for palm oil is going to weaken.

4) india has surplus production of groundnut for use as cooking oil. so not much need for imports of cooking oils.

5) palm husk cannot even be counted as a substitute for poultry feed due to the lack of protein and carbohydrates.

6) biodiesel is not profitable at current crude oil price of usd50/bbl.

7) been proven that u r bs from point 1-6

8) hengyuan is up becos of improving refining margin. there is excess production capacity and supply for crude oil out there.

seriously, do u want to be embarrassed time and time again????

@calvintaneng,

ur friend has his so-called 30 yrs in a related industry so what???

he still get the current production costs wrong and gave u a 10 yrs ago numbers, so do u think he can be a trustworthy source????

@calvintaneng,

dont bs with me since once i see the numbers ur friend provided, i know it is old numbers.

the production cost of rm1.3-1.5k/mt is donkey yrs ago, maybe ard 2005-2008 and this is when fertilizer costs still at usd150/mt and rm3.5:usd1

current production cost is now ard rm1.9-2.2k/mt with potash at ard usd300/mt and rm4.28:usd1

the dryness in illinois and iowa is normal for this time of yr, nothing to be shocking.

the crop progress in soybean-growing states r per normal, so what drought u bs abt????

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-07-31-2017.pdf

admin ought to ban bigbrother for being a bs stock promoter.

if anyone listen to him/her/it, i can only say good luck in the investment.

@calvintaneng,

what rubbish r u talking abt having 50% gross profit and drought in us???

cpo production cost in west malaysia now is ard rm2.0-2.2k/ton while east malaysia is at rm1.9-2k/ton, thus only giving gross profit of less than 25% depending on the operational efficiency.

and there r no reports of lower projected usda soybean productions from mid-west growing areas of the us or serious dry weather conditions in illinois or major soybean growing areas.

only wheat growing areas like montana and dakotas having serious droughts.

so stop bs and give false info.

@nikicheong,

i can understand the strategy u r using or similarly, parkson can be viewed as a privatization play.

however, the issue with using this strategy is that banker is holding all the cards while player is in a passive position.

in other words, the banker has the first mover advantage while the player can only react.

a similar stock for comparison will be mui, where the stock keeps on getting lower and lower despite a 'high' na value.

@nikicheong,

even parkson's china ops r gone case becos the trend there is chinese shoppers either shopping online or going to the more popular fully fledged shopping malls.

parkson is now trying to transform into a fully-fledged mall concept, but this is alrdy too late since competitors such as wanda, sunac, sm, aeon etc r far ahead and the competition is only going to intensify.

despite having several valuable pieces of real estate in china, parkson is alrdy late in transforming, so can it be able to turn ard the biz under such challenging environment, or will it choose to sell out????

@TF Tan,

i dont know if u r plain naive or just a blind follower of parkson.

to push a share up, the share must have story.

so what sort of story parkson can spin???? given that its stronghold of china is no more.

dont tell me it can suddenly have a qr profit of rm100m later this mth.

@m168,

like what @greedy44 said, no bandar m, iwc is dead.

so merger or no merger makes no difference.

should just ban this @bigbrother like how one of the forumers got @sharemeakers banned.

really making a mockery of the forummers' intellects.

@stanleysee,

like what a veteran trader once told me, '.... the mkt is always rite.'

for me, i dont really like lion-related stocks becos i find their operational efficiencies and corp. strategies to be highly ineffective and even at times, nonsensical. another reason is becos i noticed that a lot of local ibs r involved in giving lion stocks favorable reports, much like how gs advertise berjaya a few yrs ago. thats why i m cynical of lion-related counters.

@zefftan,

no worries. we always get a bit heated during sharing of povs.

thats why i m staying away for lion-related counters, can anytime lose big money.

parkson and lioncor the best examples.

one get hammered from 10 to current penny stock level while the other get delisted after 37 yrs.

@chl1989,

the high level of capital-intensive itself is already a barrier-to-entry.

anti-dumping policy is only used to protect the existing local players.

@zefftan,

at least i know what is important in the operation of a manufacturing plant and willing to learn more on a matter.

do u even know the basic abcs for running a plant firstly and r u willing to learn????

@leoting,

thx for the operational info on lion ind. however, do note that lion ind do use iron ores in its production for hbi as well.

dont mind if u can share where u get the scrap metal prices from???

it is always good to learn more abt the industry.

@leoting,

u r basing ur bullish call on average selling price, not traded price.

how abt the raw mat prices, production costs and exchange rates???

iron ores prices have increased from the low of usd35/mt cfr china in end 2016 to the current usd70/mt cfr china while rm is remaining weak against the usd.

whether if the mills can make profit is not only dependent on the operational efficiency but also the procurement/exchange rate plannings.

as a result, the higher prices of steel may not reflect in higher margins.

@royce chan,

the settlement between the landlord and parkson is reflected in 2015 accounts but question is whether the landlord has paid the bank.

if not, parkson will still have legal issues.

but that is besides the point.

parkson is having shrinking pats from 2012-15 culminating into loss last yr, and if it was not due to the gains from disposal, the company would have been deeper in the red.

@gcke,

very well said in detail.

my logic is simpler, the risk-reward ratio must be attractive for me to punt.

@yucaihacai,

where is the misleading???

parkson is still on the hook if the landlord doesnt pay the bank.

the rental amount due from parkson in the 2015 related judgement is ard rmb103m. with interest counting from 2016, it will be ard an additional rm3.1m in needed provision.

read the judgement properly.

only the bank accounts r unfreezed, but the 2015 award of rmb140m from parkson still stands.

@ming,

how can this be good news when parkson is still on the hook with the landlord????

if the landlord didnt pay up, parkson have to pay up part of the award. there is a possible additional rmb3.1m interest payment on top of the rmb103m which was the rental part of the award to the landlord in a related litigation between parkson and landlord.

so now parkson may need additional rmb3.1m provision just in case.

good news will only be if parkson is totally off the hook in both cases, but that is not possible.

@future,

thats why i enjoy punting penny stocks with a possible minimum of 100% returns.

but of cos, sometimes, bankers still hold more cards.

a combi of skills and luck.

@kelvin62,

did u even know ur basic accounting and legal???

this judgement meant that parkson has no choice but to pay out the original 2015 amount plus interest, which will work out to ard rmb10.5m, thus meaning parkson has to pay ard rmb151m now.

and u can tell me this qr will not be affected by this additional interest payment????

@chl1989,

u r rite, lion ind is a 'turnaround' punt.

but looking at the mess the lion group is in currently and steel price not being super high as in 2010, makes any 'turnaround' very challenging.

@investoroem,

i would have much preferred the steel import protection be in the form of quotas rather than tariffs.

chinese steelmakers r highly efficient compared to the malaysians.

so the china factor is only mitigated, not eliminated.

@chl1989,

if u look at backer and the operational efficiency, u will know which is the safer bet.

lion ind is anytime can turn bearish while ssteel is more steady.

@jackpotjill,

i bot @ 11 and out @ 14.

so now just watch show.

@adcool,

if one punt into fgv on the low, one can still lepak ard.

if fgv dies, that means 50% of malaysian rural economy is gone.

so worth a punt

@investoroem,

like i said to @albukhary b4, becos of the china factor, i m steering away from local steel stocks.

i m punting into constructions and banks for the time being.

@leoting,

ssteel is far better than lionind.

ssteel has a strong backer/outlets in hong leong group, lionind has who as backer????

lth??? not a strong backer.