Posted by DK66 > Sep 29, 2019 12:05 AM | Report Abuse
Kcchongnz,
In any case, what is your estimate of Jaks' power plant worth given your estimate of RM141m FCF ?

Jaks' worth in this power plant per share basis, in my opinion, is definitely worth a lot more than its 75 sen per share, no matter how we slice it. If you are investing in Jaks based on this assumption, I don't think you should worry about it. There is a big margin of safety.

However, when we invest in Jaks, bear in mind we are not investing in the power plant, but the whole of Jaks; its other businesses, its management especially. In this respect, I think may be good to be in it, but if one sailang on it, it is another matter. This is just my opinion.

Good luck.

Even when we estimate cash flows from payback period is a guess. Cash flows should be given and then we compute payback period, and not the other way.

Anyway, this is the first time I estimate cash flow by using payback period. There are two ways to do it; either from the equity or the firm (equity + debt) way.

Firm way is cost of project USD1870m
Cash flows for the whole firm = 1870/8 = USD234m
This estimation is free of any capital structure. How is the project funded and how much interest and principle repayment, we don't know. However the future cash flow is distributed depends on your decision on the capital structure. How much goes to the equity shareholder and the debt holder is hence depended on the funding structure, the interest rate etc.

The bottom-line is, USD234m, the cash inflow for the whole firm has to be divided between the equity shareholders and debt holders depending on the capital structure. Hence it is strange that you add the interest cost to the cash flow of the firm.

The equity way is what I have shown before.

Posted by DK66 > Sep 29, 2019 5:12 PM | Report Abuse
I can only guess that the RM100m provided by the management actually refers to cash distribution instead of FCF or profit.

I have to say this is a very wild guess.

Posted by DK66 > Sep 29, 2019 2:48 PM | Report Abuse
However, if the US$234 has already netted off the interest costs, the project IRR increase to 9.76%. Still below 12% but closer.

DK66, I agree with your cash flows estimation here, but not sure what you mean by your statement that it has netted off the interest cost.

My interpretation is that USD234m is the cash flows for the firm, the JV, and that belongs to both the equity and debt holders. But with that cash flows, and if it is constant, that won't give you an IRR of 12%, but just 9.8% as stated by you, which I agree. So it is likely the assumption was the cash flow is not constant at USD234, but increasing, say according to inflation or whatever, or simply the assumption of estimation the cash flow using payback period is incorrect.

To get the cash flows of the equity holders, you have to deduct the cash flows for the debt holders, which includes principle and interest payments, before you apportion it to both equity and debt holders. That is why I don't understand what you mean by "the US$234 has already netted off the interest costs", and that when you calculate the cash flows to Jaks in the article that you did not take this into consideration.

Another question is why did the management guided that the cash flow to the company was about RM100m only, which is substantially less than what is being estimated by you and me? is it because our estimation of cash flows based on assumption of the payback period was incorrect? Or the management deliberately hiding something? For example something not related to our "pay", but rather more on "kick".

Payback period.

Initial outlay by JV = USD468m

Payback period = 8 years

Cash flow per year = 468/8 = USD58m

If we use USD 58m of cash inflow, you will find that the IRR for the equity shareholders of the JV is actually very close to 12%.

Posted by DK66 > Sep 28, 2019 11:41 PM | Report Abuse
Kcchongnz,
Your estimate of cash flow has an implied IRR of 5%. Management has guided an IRR of 12%


Not sure how you calculate IRR.

For the project, based on all the numbers given by you, this is how I evaluate.

Initial layout 25% of USD1870m=468m spread over 4 years of construction
Cash inflows from my rough estimates above for 18 years = USD112m, subsequently USD234m, following your information that debts are paid off in 18 years.

How can the above IRR be just 5%? It is more like 18%, way above the 12% mentioned all this while.

If that is so, the rough estimate of the cash inflow is overstated, and hence even my rough estimate of RM141m cash inflow which was based on the payback period given is also overstated. The guidance of management of cash flow for Jaks of about RM100m seems close.

Well, I could be wrong.

I estimate the cash flow in this way.

Project cost 1870
Payback period 8
FCF 233.75

The project cost is provided by both the equity and debt holders. Hence the equity and debt holders will share this cash flow of USD234m a year.

Debt holders who have paid 1400m will be paid principle and interest payment of USD122m a year for 18 years, assuming interest rate at 6%. What is left for equity shareholders will be 234-122= USD112m.

Jaks portion = 30%*USD112m = USD33.6m

In RM = 33,6*4.2 = 141m

This is close to what I read someone mentioned what the director told him of RM100m to RM150m a year.

Assuming the above is close to actual, the cash flow is still substantial. The only remaining concern is, if this cash flows will be equally shared by all shareholders, and not squandered away.

Just for discussion purpose,

1)In project financial appraisal, when estimating cash flows from total project cost through the payback period, it should not have included interest payment.

2) Hence annual repayment of loan must include interest payment, in accordance with an amortization table. This amount is very big for a 18 years payment. It is somewhere near 120m-130m a year if say interest rate is 6%-8%.

3)Cash flows should increase over the years but not sure why the jump in cash flows from RM197m to RM295m from year 19 to 25.

DK66,

Thanks for the response. You are still the best person in i3investor to get answer from Jaks power plant project.

For discussion purpose, I look at project evaluation differently, and it is best to use cash flows, or rather free cash flows the JV will get from the 25 years operations.

I concur with you the payback period, using your numbers, that cash flows will be US234m a year. This will be "the number" to be used for valuation.

"Profit" unless it is the same as cash flows, has not much meaning, and hence the PE ratio.

But that number should be the cash flows the jv will get, the cash flows for the firm, CFF of USD234m, but it should not have included interest payment, as the payback formula does not imply it is as such.

The more important thing is what is the cash flows for the equity shareholders, the two partners, CFE. As interest and loan repayment have to be made to the debt providers, that annual amount has to be taken off from CFF to obtain CFE. For a loan of USD1.4b for 25 years, that annual amount of payment is very significant at USD103m a year. That gives a much lower CFE.

What do you think?

Posted by qqq3 > Sep 25, 2019 8:41 PM | Report Abuse
kc....sure or not u know what is profitable investing? not dead share investing which you are famous for...............

So which "dead share" you are referring to?

How have they compared to Jaks and Sendai being shouted margin and sailang for the last three years?

Oh by the way, still holding your London Biscuits bought at 16 sen a couple of weeks ago?

Oh, you forgot to post that you have sold and cut win them at 17 sen which you are doing all the time?

Or still waiting to see how the share price going to move in another week, and if go up to 30 sen, will say you have sailang again at 10 sen; and if have gone down to 5 sen, will say you have sold at 20 sen on 25th September as usual?

Posted by qqq3 > Sep 25, 2019 8:12 PM | Report Abuse
kc...don't ask me stupid questions.....want to buy, buy...don't want to buy, get lost.....I noticed Ang is buying some recently .......


My post was directed to the writer of this blog, of whom I respect because he got substance, and I would learn a lot from him and make my own decision to buy Jaks or not.

Obviously, it was not directed to a trading pro(stitute), or a hapa dog who the only thing he knew was shouting sailang and margin to get novice and newbies to buy Jaks when it was trading at RM1.80, and proudly claimed he profited again and again from it, but knows nothing at all about investing

I have no idea why people who call themselves internet sifus assume bankers and project investors are idiots.

In i3investor, I can only read one internet "sifut" called himself "pro(stitute)" in day trading.

Just curious.

Do you have to make annual loan repayment and interest that comes with it?

Are you looking at profit, or cash flows, or a combination of it?

Which is the relevant figure, profit or cash flows?

What is the eventual total number of Jaks shares outstanding?

Posted by okdoke > Aug 29, 2019 3:43 PM | Report Abuse
KC ...good write up thanks. Are targetting shares prices to increase 300% in 6 years time and 500% in 10 years time realstic target? thanks in advance

The link below is my opinion. Please read.


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/87726.jsp

A few comments here,

1) Short-term return of Unit trust funds, and its comparison has not much meaning as upfront fee will trash the real return.

2) Investment in unit trust funds, or any investment for that matter, has to be long-term, and comparison has to be long-term in term of compounded annual return, CAR.

3) Compounded return is normally in annual basis, or more precisely, compounded annual rate of return.

4) Cumulative return, say over two years, is not the same as CAR.

5) Return alone says little about how good the strategy is. It has to consider in parallel with the risk involved.

6) The risk profiles of unit trust investment and EPF dividend are totally different.

7) Unit trust investment may be good for those who have no knowledge about investing in stocks, but asking EPF contributor to withdraw their money to invest in unit trust, in my personal opinion, is highly irresponsible.

8) Why 7 above? Go check the return of unit trust funds over 3 years, 5-year, 10-years or longer periods in Malaysia, and compare with the return of EPF. I haven't taken into consideration of risk-adjusted return yet.

Posted by i3lurker > Aug 17, 2019 10:10 PM | Report Abuse
I tried golf too.
found out that i dun have the hatred to hit something with a stick
found it a very silly game

Golf is not an easy game to pick up. It requires some talent in sport too. There are simply too many departments involved that getting good at it is difficult. But once you get it, it is a very interesting game.

Golf is particular good for retirees who are no longer fit and can get easily injured doing other vigorous sports. Besides, it provides an avenue for socializing at retirement, besides having some good exercise, and whiling away the abundant time available while remaining active in mind and body, otherwise would be boring without having much thing to do.

Retirees should try to pick up this wonderful game.

Posted by qqq3 > Aug 16, 2019 5:24 PM | Report Abuse
otb..........Kc talking about snake oil sales men...very apt description of you.........
me? My $ 50,000 of a few year ago is now worth $ 300,000 but that is just me.....not for sale, not for you...........

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 10, 2019 4:28 PM | Report Abuse
my trading adventure? From $ 50k to $ 350 k, last few years.....good enough for me.....and best of all, I am actually very bearish last couple of weeks................


So lost 50k in a month? How many months before everything gone?

You know what the truth is? All what you said are just siok sendiri, "reporting big number". Kept on lying until just impossible to remember so many lies and then everything contradicting itself. I doubt the miserable 50k is still there. Most likely using the monopoly money now.

That is a snakeoil salesman.

Posted by paperplane > Aug 16, 2019 4:24 PM | Report Abuse
3%....consistent ya...

Well, in investing, it is good to make some money, or if lose, just a little, it is okay.

Don't agree? Just look at this portfolio which lost 63%! Which is better? Or is there any comparison?

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/99613.jsp

Posted by paperplane > Aug 16, 2019 4:23 PM | Report Abuse
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/116402.jsp

Not bad. Still made a few percent even in this market.

It is excellent when compared to this portfolio below which lost 63% in a year!

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/99613.jsp

Posted by qqq3 > Aug 16, 2019 3:06 PM | Report Abuse

everyone will find their place in the bell curve....

ME; WHAT THE HELL YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT? MUMBO JUMBO? ANY VALUE AH?


people like u and that OTB promises sunshine and millionaire status to their customers............nobody ever commit suicide due to the writings and promotions of OTB and KC

ME: ME PROMOTE? PROMOTE WHAT? PROMISE WHAT?

I TEACH PEOPLE TO BE VERY CAREFUL OF THE SNAKEOIL SALESMAN HIDING BEHIND MULTIPLE NICKS OF DESA6769, SMARTASS, LONGRANGER, STOCKMANNY, QUACK QUACK QUACK ETC OUT TO DECEIVE NEWBIES AND THE PUBLIC TO SAILANG AND MARGIN IN JAKS AND SENDAI SO THAT HE COULD MAKE A KILLING ON THEIR IGNORANCE, SAVING MANY FROM THESE FRAUDULENT CHEAT, AND SAVED THEM FROM LOSING AND COMMITTING SUICIDE.THIS ALSO SAVED THE SNAKEOIL SALESMAN FROM GOING TO JAIL FOR THAT.

DON'T YOU THINK I HAVE DONE A GREAT SERVICE TO THE COMMUNITY, AND ALSO THE SNAKEOIL SALSMAN?

Posted by qqq3 > Aug 15, 2019 8:28 PM | Report Abuse
kc.......the KLCI is at 5 years low................if u had invested in Bursa based on its 30 largest and most profitable companies, you have negative compounding for last 5 years.................
what compounding you talking about? the only compounding is the negative kind....................................

If you know nothing, it is best to shot up rather than telling everyone that you are that stupid. There are a few flaws in your statement above,

1) In the last 5 years, KLCI was lowest in August 2015, not now.

2) Do you know there is such a thing as dividend yield?

3) The 30 component stocks are chosen for their market cap, not the "most profitable companies" as spewed out by your mouth.

4) Why you so stupid investing in the 30 largest companies in Bursa?

5) How could you get any extra-ordinary return from investing the 30 largest companies in Bursa when most unit trust funds are in?

6) So how much "negative return" is from investing in the 30 largest companies in Bursa? Can give a figure on how you compute?

One more time, seriously are you a retired accountant, or a snakeoil salesman?

Posted by teoct > Aug 15, 2019 1:59 PM | Report Abuse
KC thanks for sharing. However, the proposed RM 80K/year or RM 7.2K/month seems a lot. Does this include having to pay housing loan?

At retirement, it is assumed that a retiree is debt free.

The 80k a year is not a proposal in this article. It is for those who has RM2m in his retirement fund, debt-free, the amount he could spend a year without having the worry of running out of money in his retirement.

If some one has RM4m in his retirement sum, he could spend 160k, and if someone has only RM1m, he should only spend RM40k a year in order to survive until he dies, with the assumption that he lives another 30 years after retirement.

That is the "4% rule".

Posted by cheoky > Aug 12, 2019 5:28 PM | Report Abuse
Can retire at 35-40years? Enjoy to fullest. Cos life is too short...Any advise?

Tell me what is your plan to "enjoy to fullest" when you retire at 35-40 years old? What are you going to do? How many times you are going to do that?

Posted by InvestWin > Aug 10, 2019 10:14 PM | Report Abuse
From the curve presented by KC, about 50% will die at the age of about 85. If a person stopped working at about 65, 50% will probably die between 65 to 85.

Retirees, eat and do what you like, and enjoy your life to the fullest, starting now. Life is too short.

Posted by dadakang_chiakchitor > Aug 10, 2019 10:38 PM | Report Abuse

Jaga cucu lor,


Main main dengan cucu sedap, but not sure of jaga cucu.

Posted by wlchew > Aug 11, 2019 7:04 AM | Report Abuse
whatever you do don't gamble. i am one of those who lost everything after going to the casino. I was like a zombie when i gamble and loost all my savings now regretting everyday

Your advice through your personal experience is priceless. Hope others learn and benefit from it.

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 5:18 PM | Report Abuse
re jaks and sendai...the relevant question to ask is............would jaks and Sendai have drop to 50 sen and 40 sen respectively if there is no selling by a 30% shareholder over a few months...........
kc..so it is more about technical reasons and not that u are so smart.................

So what do you think the reasons for the big shareholders selling Jaks and Sendai at such a huge loss?

Is it because they are great stocks, or is it because he finally knew they were rubbish stocks touted by you?

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 5:24 PM | Report Abuse
kc.......shares with syndicates such as OTB/KYY shares.......u must know when to in and out if u want to have any thing to do with OTB shares...

In Jaks and Sendai case, if you knew it is a syndicate play, why you enticed those newbies and beginners to sailang and margin on them, and you at the back sold to them and caused them to lose their pants?

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 5:24 PM | Report Abuse
what has that to do with education except one sentence?

If someone has learnt from me about investing, or even just read my articles on them in i3investor, instead of listening to PLP thingy from someone else, he would not got himself burnt so badly to the tune of more than RM100m.

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 5:24 PM | Report Abuse
kc.......shares with syndicates such as OTB/KYY shares.......u must know when to in and out if u want to have any thing to do with OTB shares......................
what has that to do with education except one sentence?

What is that to do with education?

I can tell you for sure none of those who have learnt from me would have been cheated by you when you were shouting margin and sailang Jaks and Sendai.

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 4:09 PM | Report Abuse
Do dignified honest hard working people choose this profession ...they think they can help u make money one..........?

There are many people involve in this investing industry. It is not a matter of if someone is involved in this industry is a person with dignity, or if this industry is a dignified or not dignified. It is how one carries himself.

A person who is involves in this industry has dignity because,
1. He teaches people to invest in the right way, and to me, it has to be treating investing in stock like investing in part of a business.
2. He teaches them to avoid the pitfalls of investing, understand risks
3. He teaches them not to do risky things such as using margin finance, or swinging for the fence
4. He teaches them not to follow stock tips from anybody, rumours, and hypes.
5. He teaches them to invest in good companies, how to determine if a company is good or bad. And only invest if it is a good company selling at reasonable price, or a mediocre company at a great price.
6. Invest for long term, long term doesn’t mean holding a stock for long term, and not trading stocks.
Another person who has absolutely no dignity.
1. He touts stocks for himself or hand-in-hand with manipulators
2. He encourages newbies and beginners to sailing stocks
3. He relentlessly touting them to use margin
4. He glorifies his trading adventure and encourage others to do the same
5. He talks quality but trade rubbish stocks
6. He touts others to buy a stock and sell at the back and then proclaim he has made a killing
7. He PLP the rich and scorn all others who share their knowledge

Question, which resembles you and which resemble me?

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 4:09 PM | Report Abuse
Do dignified honest hard working people choose this profession ...they think they can help u make money one..........?
stock market like that one meh?? U think stock market like being a mechanic or an engineer?

Obviously OTB has a dignified job as many of his investors praise him. Even your master admires him because he had advised him not to invest in Jaks and Sendai as touted by you. His regret is listened to you instead of OTB.

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 4:09 PM | Report Abuse
Can you elaborate how I am a "conman" with specifics?
my answer to that question.......
Do dignified honest hard working people choose this profession ...they think they can help u make money one..........?
stock market like that one meh?? U think stock market like being a mechanic or an engineer?

A teacher, whether he teaches science or art, or the right way of investing, is a definitely a dignified career. I had had great teachers in my school and university days.

An accountant is also a dignified profession, of course not if you do hanky panky stuff and got sacked and banned from the profession. That is incredibly "Undignified".

Investment bankers and remisiers can also be a dignified career if they can help investors to build long-term wealth with low risk.

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 3:54 PM | Report Abuse
kc...what I have shared about myself is out of various casual conversation......but not relevant to what I say about u and OTB...2 little con men.

Conman?

I can easily show you are a big conman, not little but big, which I have shown numerous time on how you conned newbies and beginners to sailang and margin Jaks and Sendai and you have profited again and again. Actually no need to show, you told everyone here numerous times.

Can you elaborate how I am a "conman" with specifics? or is it "änticonman" because I have exposed a conman of you?

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 25, 2019 2:34 PM | Report Abuse
u know where he dig all that them from meh? I don't.
maybe it shows, speculate / trade better than buy and hold because my portfolio went from $ 50,000 to $ 350,000 in last 5 years.........

You know with 12111 comments in i3investor, and that is only with the nick of qqq3, not including comments with other nicks such as Desa6769, Brightsmart, Loneranger, Stockmanny, etc,

1) People know what stocks you bought. We don't know the price you sold and whether you made money or not, although you claimed you had, months later that you claimed you had sold them. But we know what are the prices of those stocks now, and how badly they have tanked, everyone of them,and yet you claimed you had made money. A true "pro"indeed. Only thing is we don't know you are a "pro" of cheating, or pro of trading. We do know the pros in trading is less than 5% in the market. May be, who knows, you are one of them. Hack, we don't even know the method or process of your trading.

2) Those who are long in i3investor know what stocks you have touted in i3investor, and asked people here to sailang and margin, and the prices like Jaks and Sendai tanked by more than two thirds now.

3) Even those stocks tanked and newbies and beginners lost their pants, as the stocks prices of those stocks fell relentlessly, yet you claimed you have made killings for numerous rounds. That you have revealed the kind of person you are; manipulative, ruthless, as long as you make money, you will do everything hurting others. You have exposed your character in shameless PLP rich people and aim to benefit from that, but at the same time scorning and cursing all others, including many sincerely sharing knowledge and experience.

4) From your comments, people know details of your life and your family. How much you have(but confusing as sometimes you said you have RM100k, and later RM50k, what your children do, even though classifying one as an "änalyst"" although he have just gone through the first year of CFA programme, their salaries, where you live, how many cars and parking lot you have or don't have, your previous job as an "accountant", though I cannot fathom the knowledge that you are so lacked of doing your job.

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 24, 2019 6:28 PM | Report Abuse

kcchongnz > Jul 24, 2019 6:20 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 23, 2019 3:57 PM | Report Abuse
kcchong from NZ
I hold you personally responsible for directing newbies, beginners and students into asset rich shares like Insas instead of quality rich shares favored by Philips......so why? Is it because of excellent track record of such an approach or because quantitative is easy to teach compared to quality and business sense?
=========
kc...u have not answered why so....but we all already know why so, don't we?


Aiyo, you don't even realize how stupid you are. The more you talk, the more you reveal how retarded you are. Take my advice. Keep quiet, then no one will know you are that ridiculously and incredibly stupid

Posted by i3lurker > Jul 24, 2019 6:17 PM | Report Abuse
the remisier community is very small. they will know each other over a period of time.


Soon some remisiers will be able to find out the true trading records of the big-mouth. I am very sure what the results would be. Absolutely!

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 23, 2019 3:57 PM | Report Abuse
kcchong from NZ
I hold you personally responsible for directing newbies, beginners and students into asset rich shares like Insas instead of quality rich shares favored by Philips......so why? Is it because of excellent track record of such an approach or because quantitative is easy to teach compared to quality and business sense?

Sometimes I wonder if I am talking to a kid or a 60+ year old "accountant".

Hold me responsible for directing newbies, beginners and students into asset rich shares?

1) Did I?
2) What is wrong with that?

I must direct them to quality rich shares favoured by Philip?

1) Why must I direct to "quality rich shares"? Can eat ah?
2) Why must be the shares of Philip? Can't be anyone else ah?
3) Tell me what "quality rich shares are"?
4) How to you approach quality shares?
5) You buy shares just because they are quality shares, and not because you are going to make money from it?

Answer the following question. You hold me responsible because

a) I share that the quality of Insas' assets are good quality assets?
b) Because I don't dirct them to Philip's shares
c) That I did not recommend them to buy your shares in Jaks, Sendai, London Biscuits, etc?
d) That I warned newbies, beginners, and students against the calls of sailang and margin by the guy with the nicks of Desa 6967, Brightsmart, Loneranger, Stockmanny, qqq3 etc?
e) All of the above

And also this type of trading skill from a "Pro".

Stock price then 24-Jul-2019 Gain/loss Gain/loss %
Jaks 1.80 0.805 -1.00 -55%
Sendai 1.40 0.455 -0.95 -68%
Bornoil 0.10 0.045 -0.055 -55%
CBIP 2.25 0.93 -1.32 -59%
Ecoworld 1.29 0.78 -0.51 -40%
Taan 4.79 2.26 -2.53 -53%
Jtiasa 1.35 0.475 -0.875 -65%
Genting w 1.07 0 -1.07 -100%

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 24, 2019 11:44 AM | Report Abuse
I got enough money to support my cycling.................that is all that matters.

Hey, where is your great ambition of becoming a RM200 millionaire in 10 years? Gone with the wind already ah?

Cycling also need money to maintain the bicycle you know. With this type of result FROM TRADING, how to?

7/15/2019 7/24/2019
Teoseng 1.24 1.17 -5.6%
Jaks 0.81 0.805 -0.6%
Armada 0.24 0.24 0.0%
Ekovest 0.86 0.84 -2.3%

Posted by i3lurker > Jul 22, 2019 11:11 PM | Report Abuse
the warrants will just expire with no sound
even though the locked RM804 million unquoted subsid consumes RM50 million per Q, there is still 19.2% of Inari to further sell down
selling down Inari is still the lesser of other evils and the best option for management at the current moment.

1) warrants
The exercise price of warrants is RM1.00. If Insas share price is above RM1.00, warrants will be exercised. Major warrant holders probably has substantial amount of preference shares to exercise some of the warrants. So it depends on the share price of Insas on expiry date. There is still about 8 months to go. So, it is not a sure thing.

2) If Insas has RM804m of "ünquoted shares", which will work out to RM1.21 per share, that is very substantial and Insas may not be that undervalued after all, as unquoted share is not liquid and has no market value and hence may not get what is in the book, and sometimes can be way off. But how do you get the figure?

The actual figure is RM48m, or 7 sen per share, which does not make much difference to the undervaluation even if you put a zero value to them.

By the way, Inari is an associated company and its shares are quoted in Bursa.

Posted by i3lurker > Jul 21, 2019 8:00 AM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz
JCBNEXT?
is the company fully valued? or richly valued?
if you invest in any fully valued company, your growth factor will be economic growth itself.
Fully valued companies tend to nose dive in price during recessions and fluctuate with market sentiment.
Is JCBNEXT at an all time low to warrant a writeup?
Only you can answer these questions.

From your questions, you seem to be in the same page as me in this respect. I believe that is one of the good ways in investing; what is its price, what is its value. A great company which is worth say RM10 won't be a great investment if it is sold at RM20. A mediocre company which is worth RM1.00 may be a great investment if it is sold at 28 sen.

That is what we can control in our investing, to find out what is the value of the company and compare with its price. Other things such as if a controlling stake would be sold at a premium or a discount, we won't know, although we know it is normally sold at a premium.

But the introduction of this JOBNEXT was by someone else giving a comment in this thread, not from me. He has given a link to it in his comment. I only concur with him.

Posted by untong > Jul 20, 2019 4:47 PM | Report Abuse
Considering both qualitative and quantitative factors; why not consider JCBNEXT?
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/204901.jsp
It may seem not as undervalued as INSAS, but it is better than INSAS on these areas:
1) Management track record is more convincing, the fact that they successfully built up Jobstreet and sell it for good price and distributed it as special dividends (INSAS minority shareholders get almost nothing when INSAS trimming their stacks on INARI)
2) Their investment portfolio is more stable and predictable results compared to INSAS (all investments are receiving dividends), their major portfolio (104corp) is related to their previous expertise; (job market advertisement)
3) More minority shareholder friendly, their management which is also major shareholder holds more than 50%, their dividend yield is higher, also regularly doing share buyback until today.
Just some alternative views, no offence~


Excellent introduction to Jobstreet. I would say you will likely to untong a lot holding JCBNEXT for the long term.

Posted by experttanengyee > Jul 20, 2019 3:32 PM | Report Abuse
THIS IS MOST STUPID THEORY FROM KC.cleary show kc is clueless about stock market and financing.to borrow 530m from bank,you net worth must be 6bil.no financial institution going to let someone borrow 530m without collateral.
no wonder KC can talk only and a total noob in stock market.
Quote
Theoretically someone can borrow RM530m from banks to buy up all the shares in the open market at 80 sen, and
Unquote

Hi expert, before we get into discussing about your point, can you try to understand what was written and what they really means,

1) Did I say "theoretically", or "according to kcchong's theory" in my post?
2) Did I use "theoretically", or the word "practically"was used.

Next, are you a banker specialized in borrowing? Can you explain why someone needs a net worth of RM6 billion in order to have collateral to borrow RM530m?

Posted by Connie555 > Jul 19, 2019 10:09 PM | Report Abuse
This Kay See only know how to choose a particular period for that stock to prove that it is better than others.
What if those people who bought at Rm1 at 2017, until now they lose about 20% nvr even recover yet after 2 years.
I also know how to pick a particular period to talk about share


Well, my comparisons for short-term, mid term and long term return of investing (not speculating)in a stock in this article were by comparing the returns over a one, three and ten years period from now, not trying to choose a date to suit.

Share price of those three stocks I used have changed by more than 500% over the last few years, which one you like to use?

If you are not agreeable to my benchmarks, you may use your own periods to dispel it. Please do and show us rather than just making a random statement like that.

Or if you prefer to use the peak and trough price of each stock, I know you won't be able to get them, I will provide you wit those prices which I took time to obtain from the Bursa graphs, maximum about 6 years, for your ease of reference as below,

Company Price Peak Trough Best gain Worst loss
Insas 0.800 1.300 0.400 100% -38%
Jaks 0.795 1.800 0.400 99% -56%
Sendai 0.460 1.700 0.400 15% -73%

To help you to understand them which I am not sure you could just by looking at the table above,

If you take the peak prices of $1.30, Insas has lost 38% to-date, compared to the loss of 56% and 73% respectively for Jaks and Sendai.

If you talk about gain from the lowest price for the last 6 years, and interestingly, all stocks have the same lowest price, Insas gained 100%, the same as Jaks, but 15% for Sendai respectively.

Take your pick, or go to do some data mining to come out with your own figures.

Posted by (S=QR) Philip > Jul 19, 2019 7:51 AM | Report Abuse

Also kc Chong math is inaccurate on INSAS performance. As someone who also does not have a crystal ball and unable to know exactly when to buy a stock, all I can do is try to understand the business and add more every quarter. As this is a more natural progression of investors ( rather than the guy who can buy and forget for 10 years), my record of INSAS would then become far less exemplary ( for the period of 17 July 2009 to 17 July 2019). In other words, lumpy.

Math is math. Although math is very useful in investing, but math is not investing, and investing is also not math.

Which part of the math I put forward is inaccurate? I would like to correct it in my post if it is grossly inaccurate.

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 18, 2019 10:00 AM | Report Abuse
Jaks is betting on major improvements to its fortune...............Insas betting on what??

Ai, what a poor accountant you are! Kena F left and right for the last few years by Jaks management still find it enjoyable and proud to tell the whole world about it, and bet that to happen to you again.

Owning Insas at this price need not bet for the obscure future. It is all already here, now!

Posted by deMusangking > Jul 18, 2019 10:42 AM | Report Abuse
maybe betting on kon artists like Sslee, kcchong, raider!!!!!
hahaha

Why so happy ah?

You have 4215 posts in i3investor, not little and you must be here in i3 for quite a while, haven't you?

If by now you still cannt identify which is a con artist, you will only have yourself to blame eventually. Then you won't laugh like that any more.

Posted by GrahamNewman > Jul 18, 2019 11:17 AM | Report Abuse
There's no right or wrong with INSAS, just people's preference. Sure 10 year CAGR 7.2% is commendable given FD 3%, but if you have alternative which you are very confident will beat this, why choose INSAS?

Some might say:alright, after the 100% return, what's next? INSAS got 10 year record, 100% in 1 year then poof, no more target to shoot. But come to think of it, if i can get 100% in 1 year, why would i want 100% in 10 years? I think its a no brainer question.


You are brilliant!

Please tell us your "no-brainer" stock which will give us 100% in the next one year. I certainly will sell all my holding and buy your no-brainer.

Posted by siradrian > Jul 18, 2019 12:12 AM | Report Abuse
Hi KC, recent events on LONBISC reminded me of an article you issued in 2014. If only people had heeded your advice to abandon ship back then, many could have avoided "Infinity War" and unnecessary casualties today.
Your ingenuity has put a lot of substance in your articles and I dare say that newbies and veterans have benefited from your knowledge sharing. Thank you for that. Keep up the good work!

Thank you for your kind words.

Yes, I wrote a number of articles about London Biscuits 4-5 years ago, together with some other stocks like KNM, CSL, MPCorp, AsiaMeida, Smartrack etc which on average tanked by more than 80%, or even de-listed. Of course, not every stock I wrote fell to the same faith. GCB is one of them which sees its share price rises. But the hit list is more than 80%.

Not to forget I wrote so many articles about Jaks and Sendai when they were touted big time for everyone here to sailang and use margins when they were selling at RM1.80 and RM1.40 respectively.