Why a PPE shortage still plagues America and what we need to do about it

Doctors and nurses are still reusing single use N-95s and experiencing shortages of face shields and gloves. How did this happen in a country ranked No. 1 in pandemic preparedness by the WHO, one which comprises 40% of total global pharma spending, and represents 24% of global economic output?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/22/coronavirus-why-a-ppe-shortage-still-plagues-the-us.html

Why a PPE shortage still plagues America and what we need to do about it

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/22/coronavirus-why-a-ppe-shortage-still-plagues-the-us.html

@bkeong

You are implying that next 6 months, no more profit growth?

Do you know gloves are a necessity even when pandemic like Covid 19 stops?

I'm very confident that 30 years down the road in your elderly condition, the nurse attending to you will be wearing a pair of gloves.



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Posted by bkeong > Sep 6, 2020 11:23 PM | Report Abuse

Newbie, share price reflect future expectations ( say in six month) , glove counters current price up how many times since March already . The current price reflect current profit growth. What is the next six months ? every quarter profit growth 100% again ?

These days, quite difficult to find companies that can make a guaranteed good profit with guaranteed good profit margin consistently for next 12 mths.
I can only think of glove at this moment.
Don't really bother about the share price movement.
At the end of the day, the company that makes the best profits consistently should be reflected in the share price as well.

It doesn't matter glove in red zone for a few days.

Green color earnings and extreme profit growth % will lead to higher share price.

I never believe a company share price that register profit earnings growth 100% every quarter will be in the red forever.

Possible the Harta is looking to be the 1st glove company to hit RM100.

The IBs kept adjusting higher target price.
Why can't they estimate the fair value by anticipating the peak earnings.
Foe example, putting RM4 billion profit after tax per annum based on peak earnings for this pandemic. Thus, it will generate estimated eps=RM1.40, then assigning pe=20(lowest), which will provide a target price of RM28.

Then leave it alone till the pandemic hits peak.

Malaysia's glove makers struggle to meet booming demand


Malaysian manufacturer Top Glove, which describes itself as the world's biggest producer of rubber gloves, said it is seeing orders for 11-12 billion a month, compared with 4.5 billion prior to the pandemic.

As a result, customers must now wait nearly 600 days for their orders to be filled, compared with a normal delivery time of 30-40 days, said chief executive, Lim Wee Chai.

US-based Allied Market Research estimates that the global disposable gloves market amounted to US$6.8 billion in 2019, and is expected to nearly triple to US$18.8 billion by 2027.

https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/09/622064/malaysias-glove-makers-struggle-meet-booming-demand

Malaysia's glove makers struggle to meet booming demand


Malaysian manufacturer Top Glove, which describes itself as the world's biggest producer of rubber gloves, said it is seeing orders for 11-12 billion a month, compared with 4.5 billion prior to the pandemic.

As a result, customers must now wait nearly 600 days for their orders to be filled, compared with a normal delivery time of 30-40 days, said chief executive, Lim Wee Chai.

US-based Allied Market Research estimates that the global disposable gloves market amounted to US$6.8 billion in 2019, and is expected to nearly triple to US$18.8 billion by 2027.

https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/09/622064/malaysias-glove-makers-struggle-meet-booming-demand

Jakarta cemetery space running out as Covid-19 cases goes above 190,000 and death toll at 7,940


https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2020/09/05/jakarta-cemetery-space-running-out-covid-19-cases-goes-above-190000-and-death-toll-at-7940

WHO says widespread coronavirus vaccinations are not expected until mid-2021

The organization is stressing the importance of rigorous checks on their effectiveness and safety.

None of the candidate vaccines in advanced clinical trials so far has demonstrated a “clear signal” of efficacy at the level of at least 50% sought by the WHO, spokeswoman Margaret Harris said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/who-says-widespread-coronavirus-vaccinations-are-not-expected-until-mid-2021-.html

Widespread vaccinations against the coronavirus are not expected until mid-2021, a spokeswoman for the World Health Organization said, Reuters reported.

“We are not expecting to see widespread vaccination until the middle of next year,” spokeswoman Margaret Harris told reporters at a briefing in the United Nations agency’s Geneva headquarters, according to Reuters.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/who-says-widespread-coronavirus-vaccinations-are-not-expected-until-mid-2021-.html

Trump’s vaccine chief says unlikely one is ready by November

Dr. Moncef Slaoui, the chief advisor for Operation Warp Speed, the White House’s vaccine program, said in an interview with NPR that a vaccine is unlikely to be ready and introduced into the population before November.

Slaoui’s comments come after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention directed state health officials to be prepared to distribute a vaccine by Nov. 1. The move raised concerns that the date was tied to the approaching Nov. 3 presidential election. Slaoui said the date is for planning purposes and that “it’s the right thing to do to be prepared in case.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/coronavirus-live-updates.html

Good write up.
Pharma are not displaying ANY superior revenue & profit as compared to gloves.
Pharma are just hypes and there's so many of them unlike the major top5 for glove that commands 70% of market share for gloves.

Agreed.
Supermax will lead the rally as it can capitalise on ASP growth
Topglove will lead the 2nd leg of the rally having the largest capacity to spare for spot price.

Different company serves different location(50 states) as US market is huge with population of 328mil

Actually, Top Glove ban is good for others especially, Supermax and the rest will cover for Top Glove banned capacity. Besides, ASP for US is 5% higher than other countries.

Probably need some time for US Customs to verify the audit.
In this short term(3mths-6 mths), no impact to Top Glove as order backlogs can be fulfilled with US capacity.

BlackRock says it’s ‘underweight’ stocks in emerging markets due to the coronavirus

Emerging markets have reported some of the highest numbers of cumulative coronavirus cases globally, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Four of the five countries with the largest outbreaks — Brazil, India, Russia and Peru — are emerging markets, the data showed.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/03/blackrock-is-underweight-emerging-market-stocks-due-to-coronavirus.html

Agreed.

Will still post good quarter results regardless of US ban.

But it will apply during this pandemic period only.

The fact is demand backlog is more than 9 mths.

US portion can be absorbed easily with europe and other asia countries.

Looking at the 1000 stocks listed in Bursa, I believe glove counters are the only companies certain to make huge profit with high profit margin in next 2-3 quarters in this global pandemic event.

WHO cautions against prematurely authorizing a vaccine


WHO warns that ‘no country can just pretend the pandemic is over’

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/31/coronavirus-who-warns-that-no-country-can-just-pretend-the-pandemic-is-over.html

Europe sees sharp rise in the number of new coronavirus cases, as Spain and Russia infections spike

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/01/europe-coronavirus-resurgence-spain-and-russia-see-infections-spike.html

Yes.
Very much agreed.

At the end of the day, the counter that produce good result for revenue and profit will do well.

Gloves has proven that already in previous quarters.

Vaccine as we know has low profit margin(<5%) for our Msian pharma companies as we do not produce them, only fill and finish packaging.

Furthermore, msian pharma needs to pay these multinational pharma to produce this patented vaccine.

Besides, by the time it has completed approval by MOH, NPRA,etc and release to public as safe and reliable vaccine, it would be quarter 4 2021.

Sri Trang Thailand has 33 bil capacity only.
Global demand is currently over 320 bil with current supply(Big 5) less than 230 bil.
The rest has to be delivered next year which is a backlog of more than 9 months.

Winter is coming

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/08/31/moh-preparing-for-possible-covid-19-winter-spike-says-health-dg

Understanding vaccine before you preach (from CDC).

Unlike most medicines, which treat or cure diseases, vaccines prevent them.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/vpd-vac-basics.html

Many people here thought that:

Vaccine = Cure

Reality, vaccine is merely a tool to help prevent.

Do you know your yearly flu shots taken (does not guarantee) you won't be infected with flu?

https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/flu-shot-guidelines-for-adults#1

To be honest, let's put our thinking cap on.

Firstly, there's only the main Top5 glove companies in the world (4 in Msia, 1 in Thai) supporting the world's demand of glove for this historic Covid-19 event. Gloves is still required after pandemic though significantly less than currently in hospitals, medical centres, science laboratory,food industries,tech industries,etc

Secondly, there's many vaccine manufacturers in the world as many as 20-30 companies. Most developed countries have their own manufacturers of vaccine. Vaccine is required only for a short period during pandemic till everything is under control.


Overall, you should be able to determine the long term values that both can provide.

Let the share price determine who is right or who is wrong.
Why bother to debate?

Time will tell before the year 2020 ends.

During pandemic like this, the US ban will have no impact on sales/revenue as the plan capacity allocated for US can be routed to other countries with urgent need.

Backlog 590 days for Nitrile glove. Refer to the company website.

US has their annual seasonal flu between Oct to Feb which may compound the infection rates.
Besides that, Huricane Laura may cause additional problems to the community in the south.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html#:~:text=While%20the%20impact%20of%20flu,61%2C000%20deaths%20annually%20since%202010.

If vaccine arrive , still need 12to 18 months testing by Malaysia National Pharmaceutical Regulatory Agency (NPRA) & Ministry of Health Malaysia.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Khairy Jamaluddin said DPharma and Pharmaniaga would be involved in the fill-and-finish processes for Covid-19 vaccines, once they are available. However, Khairy later clarified that the packaging for these vaccines would not be exclusively managed by these two firms.

It depends on the type of Covid-19 vaccines that become available. The line has first to be validated with a new vaccine prior to full scale production, which typically takes 12 to 18 months to complete.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/08/08/duopharma-eyes-packaging-for-covid-19-vaccines

It should be over RM3 bil for revenue with Spot Order representing more than 15% of total capacity.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/08/08/duopharma-eyes-packaging-for-covid-19-vaccines

Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Khairy Jamaluddin said DPharma and Pharmaniaga would be involved in the fill-and-finish processes for Covid-19 vaccines, once they are available. However, Khairy later clarified that the packaging for these vaccines would not be exclusively managed by these two firms.

It depends on the type of Covid-19 vaccines that become available. The line has first to be validated with a new vaccine prior to full scale production, which typically takes 12 to 18 months to complete.

KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 25): The Ministry of Health suspects that the Covid-19 cases from the Tawar cluster in Kedah and Penang could have been caused by the highly infectious D614G mutation.

Bernama had quoted him as saying that the D614G mutation was first detected in July, and studies may reveal that any existing vaccine is ineffective against the mutation.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/covid19-tawar-cluster-cases-could-have-been-caused-mutated-d614g-strain

KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 25): The Ministry of Health suspects that the Covid-19 cases from the Tawar cluster in Kedah and Penang could have been caused by the highly infectious D614G mutation.

Bernama had quoted him as saying that the D614G mutation was first detected in July, and studies may reveal that any existing vaccine is ineffective against the mutation.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/covid19-tawar-cluster-cases-could-have-been-caused-mutated-d614g-strain

Researchers in Hong Kong on Monday reported what appears to be the first confirmed case of Covid-19 reinfection.The strength and durability of the immune response is also a crucial factor in how long vaccines will be effective for, and for how often people might need a booster dose.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/24/first-covid-19-reinfection-documented-in-hong-kong-researchers-say.html

Researchers in Hong Kong on Monday reported what appears to be the first confirmed case of Covid-19 reinfection, a 33-year-old man who was first infected by SARS-CoV-2 in late March and then, four and a half months later, seemingly contracted the virus again while traveling in Europe.

The case raises questions about the durability of immune protection from the coronavirus. The strength and durability of the immune response is also a crucial factor in how long vaccines will be effective for, and for how often people might need a booster dose.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/24/first-covid-19-reinfection-documented-in-hong-kong-researchers-say.html

Malaysia don't produce the vaccine. Only manufacture on behalf of large Pharma MNC eg: Sanofi, Moderna,etc

Have to pay the MNC pharma ,fees, royalties and %profit sharing for the vaccine patent as well.

Any idea why Tadmax is selling its remaining shareholding(40%) in the power biz to Worldwide?

The ASP price iquoted for Spot Price only. Please take note.

I was wondering when you posted the first blog with a new id.
Firstly, if this is a secret conversation that would make you rich, why would you want to share with us.

Secondly, the Uncle is possibly a fictional character in your mind. Trying to cook something up, as you had dip into this stock at high price.

What are you up to?
Another case of unsound mind people losing money in the past?

Old news about the sale back in 2019.
Now finally conclude

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=2960661

Good write up. Factual and honest opinion.
Being realistic.
Thumbs up.

It will be lower than 0.50, after the Rights issue

Yes, it's very sad to see the news.

If I'm a scientist trying hard to figure out the solution of Covid-19 strain A, before even commercialise, the virus had mutated into Covid-19 strain B.

How to produce a vaccine if it keeps mutating?

It never occur to me that Covid-19 can mutate.
Then the months of R&D effort and money for the vaccine is all wasted.
Those Bursa Listed companies trying to produce vaccines are going to make losses as the vaccine works one one of the man types of Covid-19.

Sounds weird but it is actually quite a serious matter.
While many of us enjoying profits of money from Glove but the fact that our lives are at stake with new strains mutating.

You are right gemfinder.

A word of advice for everyone out there, if you have no upfront cash , please do not trade.

Trade only with your excess cash other than your savings/FD/etc.

Don't cause hurt by making unnecessary risk of losses to you and your love ones at home especially in this difficult and challenging times.