Got foreign exchange gain and also higher fair value gain, excluding those eps is around 1.26 cents per qtr by taking 4 MIL out from other operating income.. Prospect will still remains good as they are looking for more acquisition in the future

Hi Venfx, do u mind to share with us the separate press u mentioned?

venfx, can check where you found the company securing 200/300 mil box build in FY 2018? Do u have the link on it?

can I ask when is EG-OR listed?

we dont need every quarter to have 90 cents eps, 30 cents eps already very good

sales value drop yes, but sales volume does not, as long as the spread margin in ringgit value remains same (say RM xx per barrel), the profit is there...in fact, cheaper selling price is better - can help increase volume or at least make volume stable.

panic selling..market sentiment...

probability, do u consider writing an article on how to analyse refiner (such as Heng Yuan) and compare against petronm?

Not necessary the most undervalued..but is quite attractive to me actually

can I ask anyway to track the crack spread applicable to Heng Yuan? and also why the average price is reported in USD in Part B of the QR?

Why cant the problem being resolved? 1 package loan got so much impact?

Not so big kids..hahaha...din buy so much..thanks..have good profit from it..I also did buy mfcb shares as well

still holding mfcb wa since it was 0.65

You are welcome Michael...and good night everyone here...

1 more thing I just realised, the tax is imposed on MFCB's subsidiary and the subsidiary is 65% owned by MFCB, my best guess is may be the tax that imposed on MFCB is only 65% for that 26 Mil - oni 17 Mil...from the Q3 report, 38% and 34% of the company earnings is in USD and RMB respectively and we know rm has depreciated against both currencies in Q4 so I guess it will help in profit margin...it will helps cushion the provision slightly...and most important...the provision is one time off...

Yeah I rmb I saw it somewhere...even better if got provision...why? The worst event will soon come - " the provision" and no more hindrance going forward except for the pending tawau plant renew...note that tawau plant contribute very little to mfcb revenue and profit...If the court case doesn't go through, bonus for mfcb later on...

Yuan lai is this court case announcement...but that was old news already...is in the announcement few months back and may not materialise as the management claims that the event is not taxable, even materialise, it will just be one time impact on their P&L, and 26 Mil can be covered by their 1 quarter profit...this is the reason I still invest in MFCB...

Investment Merits
1) Net Cash Company, currently cash per share stood at RM 0.84 while share price only RM 2.2.
2) Debt/Equity stood at less than 0.1
3) Potential tripple of existing core revenue upon completion of the Laos Power Plant by Dec 2019 - more than offset potential loss of the current income generated from the coal-fired power concession license in China in Year 2022.
4) Most importantly, new stream of income arise from construction of the new power plant valued at USD 500 Mil (or RM 2 Billion based or RM4/1USD). The construction has just completed 11.5% of the work (240 Mil has been recognised in Q1,2,3 2016) and is targeted to complete by 2019 Dec, management is confident to complete it on time. - This would means MFCB has additional construction income of RM (2*0.8-0.24) = 1.36 billion recognized over remaining 3.25 years, ie: 1.36/3.25/4 = 105 Million to be recognised each quarter. Not to forget, it is based on RM 4 per 1USD rate. USD is above 4.45 now. Note that I factor in 0.8 as the contract is 80% owned by MFCB with remaining 20% owned by the Laos government.
5) Chart is super uptrend.

Based on historical 3 quarters result, the pre tax profit margin is around 26%, and hence net margin is slightly above 20%, we haven't factor in the USD appreciation yet in the margin to be conservative, so purely from this new stream of income, MFCB should get > 20 Mil profit each quarter from this construction until 2019, if other operations contribute 16 Mil profit after tax, then it will give MFCB 36 Mil net income, about 9.5 cents EPS per quarter, if PE = 10, the FV will be RM 3.8. Let see whether this FV can be meet by year end.
Cheers.
Disclaimer: The above is just my personal opinion, please do your homework to confirm the accuracy of the info above. This opinion does not imply any buy or sell recommendation.

4.5 cents still not good? I think is good

congratz all!

Do u mind to share what are ur source of reference for using true return in Black Scholes Model?

different people have different strategies and risk appetite, if u can make consistent good return in long term using the strategy/practices, then u r successful in terms of wealth

qing qing qing, only have small stake, not big fish ya

this counter has liquidity problem, so buy at low and sell at high patiently

just one thing, r should refer to risk free rate, when u use black scholes, it uses risk neutral probability and hence risk free rate in ur valuation as well. u can use MTB one year rate and 6 months rate

haha, I din say banker acceptance is not debt ya, I see bigger concern with how they manage their receivables ageing problem as well as whether their revenue can be sustainable (ie: the project), I am not so concern with their BA...thats all ya

Liability? Which liability? Their main debt is banker acceptance which is normal, their finance cost is low, this company oni has one concern, the ageing of receivables, ageing not mean cant be received, it just a way the trading partner of the company manage their cash flows, the company can consider price in the potential impairment and then provide incentive such as rebate schedule if they pay ontime, just my comment, buy at ur own risk

I think ur comment a bit over, the director is of the view this receivables can be received in full without material losses if u read carefully, moreover, the auditor wont sign the financial statement if this is not well justified, further to that, last year annual report also have about 20million receivables pass dues, but at the end we still see good result, this is a norm for this company, may be can raise this issue during agm to see anyway to improve this if anyone going to the agm in feb, if this can be improved, this might probably help the company to maintain or improve their profitability, but I guess this might not be so easy

Not correct interest rate in black scholes and binomial refer to risk free rate which is mgs rate and volatility refers to volatility of the underlying share, genting, 30% is too high

The eps of 2.45 is not adjusted, because the split is after 30 june 2015

can I join your group as well? my email is chuweiloo1184@gmail.com

yea, I saw it, but cant deny their share price is cheap relative to their earnings prospect, I can imagine at least 50% return on this in the coming months(not years), hopefully I am not just imagining la, haha, cheers

Anyone can share where to find info on the expected profit of 200 million over the next three year for Capital City?

hi, duit, I have sometime not receiving ur email le, can you check whether my email still in ur list? Email:chuweiloo1184@gmail.com

what 14b?

positive impact of exposure to usd revenue is more than the negative impact of its usd denominated debt, coz revenue denominated in USD is more than debt denominated in USD, more importantly, hevea has good track record so far.If you check their financial, you will find out their margin is improving also, so the MD really said so? May be he said in terms of their current balance sheet exposure?

just to highlight something, the sensitivity test in the financial risk section is just the currency risk for current balance sheet exposure if I not mistaken, it is true that USD denominated loan is bad for tongher, but we can't denied that exposure of revenue in USD is more than exposure of USD in loan for tongher assuming all 77% of revenue exported to oversea is denominated in USD. (I din read through the financial statement for tongher, so I might be wrong, but this is based on my experience reading other companies/ financial report, please correct me if I am wrong ya, thanks for sharing especially on the investment in associate, some companies have loan in USD to serve as natural hedge to their revenue that is majority denominated in USD.

yes, Icube is correct, though they export little to US, but their transaction majority in USD, besides that, sang harimau also correct, but I saw the effort of hevea reducing their debt significantly from 2013 onwards, In 2015 Q1 and Q2,they have repay10.28 million of debt, they have the ability of repaying debt because they are cash rich, I expect hevea to be a net cash company in year 2016. On the other hand, with majority of revenue denominated in USD, we can see their gross margin keep increasing from quarter to quarter, hevea has over 400 million revenue per year, however hevea only have around 60-63 million debt in its balance sheet, so USD should have positive impact on hevea earnings. Hevea also mentioned they will embark in making their operations more efficient and sell higher margin product. This is just my personal opinion, please do not act solely on my opinion above

I would like to say hevea result is a lot better than mieco, evergreen and pohuat, their PE os definitely a lot higher compared to hevea, moreover hevea has shown us its track record and the consistency in growing their earning, I love hevea a lot compared to others

hx will be another h1 tomorrow as it is so cheap, no premium at all, similar situation like H1 last Friday

magni, be strong

hx coming soon

30% grow is referring to quarter-to-quarter or annual 2014 vs 2015?

but ur hv and hk already 100% premium, u not worry ur warrants drop later?

why not buy some put warrants which just enough to hedge ur portfolio, while holding the export-oriented companies and good performing counter, then you will not lose out when the stocks appreciate due to good performance while riding on the trend of declining index? just my opinion, please do not act purely on my comment above...

y ur not considering invest in US ya? just curious...

interesting, haha

Thanks a lot, Duit! Wish you have a good sleep tonight...

hi, thanks for the sharing on using the elliott wave analysis on yspsah!

hi, duit, thanks for the detail explanation, a very comprehensive one! just want to confirm something, Firstly, the normalized value refer to the total of the seven put/call,is it? and not referring to just one put/call right? So, the general idea is to measure whether the MM has clear view on how the direction of KLCI right?
Secondly, when you say whether MM control almost 100% or lesser, I a bit confused on this control as you also mentioned that the retailers buy/sell small pieces to them in your reply to yapie? What I understand 100% means they own most of the call/put, haha, and they own most, then who they sell to at the end? Thirdly, normally, the MM will close position for their client at day end? ie: they trade intraday only for their client normally? Fourthly, I saw last friday around 4.30pm, got ppl selling their put (may be to close their position?) and then after that got ppl to buy back and push the price up a bit? Do you know whats their intention on that? Lastly, do you keep track of USD/MYR and Oil Price every night before next day trading before you bet on the KLCI direction? A bit too much questions, haha, but really thanks for your reply on the previous questions, was very curious on how these MM works...Cheers, bro!