Beautiful result, now if only it goes down to RM0.50...what a solid long-term buy that will be!

Can share the article on the privatization?

Quite bad wor.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5671313

Definitely looking attractive from a value perspective. However insiders are NOT buying this fall (despite it falling so much in such a short time), and as such I think we should be a tad cautious.

Even in the interview with The Edge, the director says that any meaningful recovery can only occur in the year 2019.

The company try to be big heroes, bite off more than they can chew...and now must pay the price of it.

First few quarters surely badly hit, then Hevea will be able to raise ASPs and recoup the losses. For now I don't enter, but when things go to 90 sen levels I will consider it in a few months time.

https://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/mubadala-petroleum-petrochemicals-to-finalise-investments-in-malaysia-and-us-1.695060

Final investment decision for Pegaga within the next few weeks. This is it guys! There might be a premature speculative rally in the coming days/weeks possibly taking MHB above RM1 levels. It's a 50-50 between MMHE and Sapura...although do not get too excited as Upstreamonline reported a few weeks ago that Sapura has it in the bag (and Upstreamonline is pretty reputable source). Still many things can change.

I've been MHB shareholder for some time now, avg price below RM0.80. I don't hold Sapura. I obviously hope MHB can get Pegaga, but Upstreamonline is usually one of the best news sources about O&G industry and according to them Sapura has it in the bag. So, I'm not hoping for anything...but if we DO get Pegaga, then yo yo yo...rally to RM1.30-RM1.50.

I won't be surprised we head back to RM0.80 levels soon, as the share price has been rallying for no obvious reason. A meaningful long-lasting rally above RM1 can only take place if there is positive newsflow in my opinion. Until there we are at the risk of going lower not higher. But long term from these levels I expect we can easily make 2-3x profit over 3-5 year period.

I heard Sapura got Pegaga. Doesn't matter either way. Petronas CAPEX in 2018-2020 is set to rebound and lots of offshore fabrication contracts to be had.

Limited loh the warrant's price, hence "stuck" there

"Cost of sales increased by 10.6% which was not in line with the inrease in revenue of 9.1% for FY2017. The higher cost of sales was due to the increase in cost of raw materials as the result of weakening of RM. The RM traded between RM3.95 and RM4.50 in FY2017 as compared to RM3.75 and RM4.46 in FY2016. Besides, cost of raw materials increased also due to higher in the price of paper in the global market."

Revenue for Malaysia was at ~25% for FY2017.

So long story short, CWG will indeed be impacted adversely by the strengthening Ringgit given that it is a net exporter, but I presume there are some elements of natural hedging at play here given that some costs are Dollar denominated. Plus, CWG's selling point is increasing sales of the Arto range of products and moving on to higher-margin products. This should lead to an increase in profitability no matter the Ringgit's level vis-a-vis the Dollar.

Regardless I expect profits to be up by at least 50% in FY18, if not more than 100% increase in net profits.

Sebastian, not a big issue. CWG has substantial costs denominated in USD for imports. Also 30% of sales are in MYR. This is unlike furniture manufacturers where costs are fully in MYR and sales in MYR is at less than 10%.

So yeah, no big deal. Continue holding. Growth in export sales will beat any impact from strengthening Ringgit, plus costs will be lowered.

Read latest annual report for confirmation of what I am saying.

Quite bad in short to mid term, but value is superb for long term holders.

Heck if the warrants go down to 10sen region I might have to consider it strongly.

Stock Pick 2018.

1) CWG (30%)
2) MHB (25%)
3) TCHONG (20%)
4) SKBSHUT (15%)
5) AJIYA (10%)

Entered once more today @1.38. Avg price now at 1.60. Tan Chong Motors is well-positioned to benefit from the strengthening Ringgit, rebound in consumer sentiment (which always eventually mirrors GDP growth rate) and launch of new models in the new year (namely Serena Hybrid 2018 and Xtrail 2018, plus one or two other launches). Possible upside from quick growth in Indochina as well, namely Vietnam and Myanmar.

Tan Chong trades at very undemanding valuations. True, it could be a value trap, but this is also precisely the type of company that becomes a multi-bagger over the long term (5-10 years) due to the depressed valuations.

Who cares about technicals? Just buy based on fundamentals and intrinsic value.

Some value is emerging. Very attractive. Buy for the very long term (3-5 years++) and it should be a good investment. Be disciplined and average down every 15% drop or something, and NEVER SELL unless the fundamentals deteriorate.

@Sebastian, I "incorrectly" bought ES Ceramics in March at 0.465, sold in October at 0.370.

I have no strong opinion on ES Ceramics. I think there are better buys out there honestly speaking.

Dividend is OK. Now to play the waiting game and to let the story unfold.

@Jon, don't fall for the "sunk cost" fallacy.

This is just cross trades or between the same fund house (like RHB to RHB fund).

Don't get so excited about yesterday. It might just have been rotational play (churning). Hold and keep till this goes to the RM0.80-RM1.00 region at least.

Sell, then buy again once MYR hits ~RM3.95 to the Dollar and the price is at ~RM1.05. Hevea still has solid fundamentals and is probably the best fibreboard company in SEA.

Not a bad result. But PNB still got many to throw. Might go up a bit but upside is capped as PNB continues paring down their stake.

Got booted out of the FBM Mid 70 Index and thus the FBM Top 100 Index. This means that there might be some selling pressure in the week ahead.

How come SIMEPROP have 8 characters in the ticker? I thought Bursa max limit is 7 characters? Any info on this ?

@ajibkor, that's the stupidest reason man. It won't even impact Parkson's bottomline by 0.01%.

Cannot move be happy lah, means you can buy more at lower and longer.

Thanks for your kind concerns dear folks. I am more than capable of thinking for myself. My investment style has served me very well indeed. Tan Chong Motors will be a winner. When? I don't know. But till that happens, I can rest easy knowing I am buying into a company that will surely rebound in the mid to long term.

Look at MHB.

The stock market is forward looking. Tan Chong is selling at depressed valuations. Any minor news (new car launch for example) will serve as a catalyst to bridge the valuation gap.

We shall judge the rationality of my decision in the 12-24 month period.

Not BV per say, but the trough situation. We are at the bottom of the cycle. Improving Ringgit, improving GDP in Malaysia and Indochina, new models in the pipeline...from bottom to top, companies easily move 4-6x. Now the question is, are we at (or near) the bottom? That is the key.

Btw I like the Q3 report. Regardless there will be a selldown tomorrow and I will be there to pick up the pieces. Some of them at least.

@ahson, mentality is half the game. You need to be wise enough to get out when the fundamentals deteriorate. Yes, do not react to price of the stock. But react to the fundamentals. Ask yourself this question. Introspect.

Come on...anyone with the CIMB report pdf copy?

CAn anyone link to Cimb research pdf document please?

yingkang87, I don't really care about short-term price movements since I am a long-term investor. However, having said that, should the fundamentals deteriorate, I will not think twice about selling out. For now, I assess that Bumi's fundamentals are still solid. However, for example, should the Kraken project be terminated, I will immediately sell out and say bye bye.

UOB TP at RM1.06. Kraken and Olombendo full acceptance are the risks outstanding.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/11/24/bumi-armada-petronas-dagangan-on-uob-kay-hian-buy-list/

Sadly I can't add more now. Must wait till mid December. If it still is at around RM0.52, I will definitely add more.

Use your brains. TP and profit forecast at HLIB/JF Apex reduced, and they are assuming MYR USD at 4.30!

Yes, kraken is the biggest risk.

HLIB from RM2.19 to RM1.91.

http://www.bursamarketplace.com/index.php?ch=research&pg=research&ac=283513&bb=288879

JF Apex from RM2.12 to RM1.58.

http://www.bursamarketplace.com/index.php?ch=research&pg=research&ac=283515&bb=288881

------------

These guys have no idea. JF Apex just saja saja can reduce future expectations by so much. Two months ago they recommend everyone to buy at RM1.70! Listen to IB sure make you pokai. Act independent of their stupid recommendations.

Perhaps now the sentiment will be too pessimistic. If it somehow goes to sub RM1.10-levels, I might consider re-entering. Stock market always moody and swings wildly and overreacts.

@RJ87, no I just want to know...the cost of finance...is it being accounted for on a proportional basis, or on a fixed basis? Meaning, let's say their Bareboat Charter for Olombendo is $100 a day. The finance cost is $60. The current revenue is only 80% of BBC, so $80.

My question is...in the above scenario, are they taking the finance cost as $60, or at 80% of $60? If it is the former, that means that earnings have A LOT of upside as the BBC nears 100% for Olombendo and Kraken. If it is the latter, then earnings won't rise as drastically.

choochen, read LiiHen report. It incorporates the latest USD MYR in their future outlook. It does NOT look good. Use some common sense. Ringgit is recovering to its fair value at RM3.80-RM4.00.

Based on the results per Sep 2017, the BV/Share is at RM0.633 (after taking into account the rights issue). At RM0.505 which was my entry cost in the Rights Issue and subsequent market purchase, this indicates a P/BV of 0.798x..which is a super bargain for a stock about to embark on a period of sustained growth (and the growth might be in the triple digits!).

The ROE is exactly at 10.0% for the trailing for quarters (once you adjust for the rights issues sharebase dilution). It's even higher once you take into account the one-off corporate exercise expenses accounted for in Q4 2017. And it will be even higher going forward.

Good luck to everyone who decides to buy tomorrow onwards. Make sure to hold for a long time, or at least until such a time till the fundamentals deteriorate.

To me Hevea is too sensitive to FX rates. So I sold out as I felt the chances of Ringgit strengthening was great. I won't be surprised we see a drop to RM1.20 region by middle of next week, if not tomorrow itself.

Just wait until you see the jokers at HLIB downgrading their forecasts and TP.

Lit Kok Wai, TA cannot predict fundamental changes. Don't talk BS please.

Wow, profits have crashed. This is a big problem now. Luckily I got out two weeks ago at RM1.71. Good luck to those still holding. Remember, sell when fundamentals change. Have the fundamentals changed? You need to figure that out by yourself...

Gone. Losses some more...

@RJ87, the revenue is indeed strong.

Now the question is...how is Bumi Armada accounting their loans? For example, for Armada Olombendo, they have a loan repayment lasting for the duration of the contract. Are they paying 100% of the loan amount due, or only proportional to their share of the BBC (i.e. ~80%)? If they are paying loan fully now, that means the additional remaining 20% BBC would be almost pure profits since there are no other costs associated besides taxes.

Does anyone understand what I am trying to say?

I am so excited man. I will be a Tambun shareholder, sooner than you know it. I have been patiently waiting since ~RM1.50. Look at my comments above.

Kraken revenue in Q3 lower than in Q2. This does not make much sense. Meaning, Armada is not getting paid for this. Also Olombendo is not yet full revenue recognition. Maybe RM0.80 is the fair value until those two issues get sorted out. I hold my position as I think long-term Bumi is likely to surprise on the up side.

It all depends on how much was the Armada Intrepid sold for. What's the net profit arising from that? As long as it is <RM22mil, we should see slight upgrades.

Any estimate for how much it would have sold for?