Looks interesting. Price seems just about fair for now, but might be undervalued for future potential of the AGIBS system.

Never ending trouble with Armada, haih.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:aTUkGtTPNxkJ:www.upstreamonline.com/hardcopy/1335522/bumi-armada-hits-back-at-speculation-over-floater+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=my&client=safari

I might finally cave in and put one leg in at 1.15 in the coming week. Should the price get to RM1.05 I can top up a second time, and a third time at 0.95. Hold for the long term. Should be a relatively safe three-bagger in 5 yrs time.

Agreed with Skliew observation. I noticed the same, hence I have held off from coming in just yet, especially since there are buy orders for 5,000 lots at 1.17.

Amundi likely will not liquidate all their position, doesn't make sense. But they might sell off another block of 5,000 lots given that there are ready buyers.

Problem with Prolexus is, there are many buyers queuing on the buy queue (and little sellers on the sell queue), but there are too few buyers buying off the sell queue (and too many sellers selling to the buy queue).

This suggests that there is no "initiative" to take Prolexus higher in the interim, probably in expectation of weaker Q4 results. However, it also means that should a big buyer come in at these price levels (say, Kenanga or Eastpsring small/mid cap funds), it will easily push the price up to RM1.30 levels.

Esceram might be able to claim one-off tax credits for modernizing their PPE from 2015-2017 under this new gazette.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysia-gazettes-order-income-tax-exemption-modernising-manufacturing-activities

Hevea might be able to claim one-off tax credits for modernizing their PPE from 2015-2017 under this new gazette.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysia-gazettes-order-income-tax-exemption-modernising-manufacturing-activities

Please read this for those who have forgotten the potential

https://www.amesecurities.com.my/gc/download/Prolexus%20161017.pdf

Better wait for the sell-off from this adverse news. Prepare to buy in on a sudden plunge (if it happens). Likely next Q result also not good, and then they would have to tell all shareholders clearly that the plant is delayed, leading to a further sell-off. Looks like we might even hit RM1 level if we are patient. Long-term, the company is in good shape/health, but short term there are substantial weaknesses present. Remember, it is your entry price that will eventually dictate your returns when you decide to sell a stock. Buy low, sell high. That be the mantra.

Results are not as bad as they look. Infact it is probably a surprise to the upside. Don't just focus on the Income Statement and reported bottomline...look beyond that.

Yay, suspended pending material announcement. This is definitely for AAC. Here we go guys! I've queued at RM3.93 to sell. :)

Deferred tax...need to understand more the nature of it. OCF is very strong though, almost RM1bil in half a year.

So results out at lunchtime or evening? Is there a press conference? If yes, likely during lunch. Otherwise, evening. I think good chance AAC sale is finalized/reported, but even so, a special dividend announcement is unlikely just yet.

Haha what a joke. I'm prepared for a 4th round of top up if this crazily breaches RM0.70 again!

Not worth predicting the stock movement lah. I'm out of here, will return once we breach either of RM0.70/RM0.80.

Market is not fully confident of the earnings being this good actually due to an unknown amount of one-off profit and revenue coming from Lukoil. This is my impression after reading the research reports this morning.

Ok, so far:

MIDF from 0.71 > 0.85
RHB from 0.72 > 0.78
PublicInvest retain 0.90

Keep on? AFAIK they have never done a rights issue. Also quarterly is down heavily due to one-off corporate exercise expenses (maybe again some more for the rights issue, previous one is for name change).

Might be a good long-term play. But I am more interested in buying in at a cheaper price.

Likely special dividend of RM0.08 for AACE and RM0.75 for AAC. If indeed AAC sale is finalized, expect the price of AA to jump up by RM0.60 almost immediately, i.e. ~RM3.90.

I have queued to sell at RM3.93 just in case it gets triggered in a moment of madness.

Hopefully tomorrow is a good week...a short one, but hopefully a good week nonetheless.

For the price to trend to RM0.80 and beyond, we need positive earnings upgrade/call upgrades from the IBs. Those who were recommending ~RM0.70 before should be going to RM0.80-RM0.90, and those recommending ~RM0.90 before should be heading towards RM1.00.

If we see this happening tomorrow, there's a good chance the institutions will pile in. Friday may have been too short a time to adequately react and verify all the info from the quarterly, i.e. were the reported earnings substantially higher than the core earnings?

AdCool, what makes you say that their China business is going from bad to worse? Have you seen Q1 and Q2 2017 financial statements? It's quite clear that they have managed some turnaround to return to neutral levels. Still a far cry from the glory days, but it's definitely not from "bad to worse" as you put it.

What is getting from bad to worse is their SEA operations, especially in SEA ex-Malaysia.

Guys, when I look at the segmental results for Q2 alone, I get these figures:

Particle board:

Rev: 75,765 vs 52,432
PBT: 11,484 vs 6,696 (71.5% growth YoY)

RTA:

Rev: 77,557 vs 69,332
PBT: 6,495 vs 11,241 (42.2% decline YoY!)

------

I would like some of your input on the above. Why two such divergent results? How come particleboard can grow so much (when you compare to Evergreen for example) despite all the cost pressure with raw materials but the niche for Hevea which is their RTA sector that they source raw particle boards in-house got so badly hit? RTA contributes majority of bottom line since past 2 years, but now all of a sudden particleboard contributes twice as much?

Surely there has to be a reason for this. Maybe some smart people can share their ideas.

The only thing that comes to mind is that the selling prices for RTA were not raised in the current Q in tandem with rising costs.

https://eresearchsystem.bursamalaysia.com/eResearch/webdownload.pub?id=19899

Have a good weekend folks. Let's aim for RM0.80 and beyond next week.

We might be headed into the RM1.50s soon...

Quarter report not pretty, but the substantial decline in inventories is a major positive.

Wow man all also bickering like kids.

Anyway it does seem like there is lots of selling pressure still over here. No catalyst to buy. I will wait for it to go lower. It's already at an attractive price, but no hurry. The lower you buy in at, the lower your downside risk + the more magnified your eventual returns.

Bottomless better. Let it fall, lower the better. I bought in first at RM0.775, but now am holding off. Long term this one close two eyes will surely rebound. It's the Petronas Group's in-house fabricator. It has net cash per share of ~RM0.41. It has got much more facilities than 3-5 years ago.

This is a good company to bet on with limited downside but unlimited upside. We are talking about a plausible ten-bagger over a 5 year period. Imagine IF oil returns to $100 levels...a number of the local competitors in the fabrication arena are in trouble (such as THHE). There is a third drydock to be built, and a floating dock off Terengganu is also operational. Assets have been written down over the past two years and will continue this year.

To me, this is a low-risk company IN THE LONG TERM. Now, where's the bottom? RM0.62...or maybe RM0.565....or maybe RM0.515? I don't know. I honestly don't know when I go in the second time.

But Charlie Munger and Seth Klarman talk about the fat pitches. This, right here, to me is a fat pitch, and likely to be an even fatter pitch in the coming days and weeks.

If it breaches the RM1bil market cap, it's likely some institutional holders may be forced to sell due to the stock falling outside of their permitted mandate.

Aiya today somehow Malaysia down day. But still close at RM0.75 considered decent already. Now you see the local/foreign IBs increase their TPs to RM0.90++, some maybe even to RM1.00++.

Slow and steady does it. One pip every day for the next 3 months also I ok already!

Looks like the party is over for today. We might need to wait for the IBs to release their reports on Monday morning, as some fund managers may want better clarity before jumping in. I'm also interested to know if the reported profits exceed or fall short of the actual core net profits.

Lol sell on news...only works when the stock is overvalued. The opposite happens when the stock is undervalued...it gets re-rated upwards.

Nice, we tee off at RM0.76. May be hitting RM0.78-RM0.80 by end of the day.

Good luck to all. Personally, my analysis tells me this is just the beginning. Hold-off from selling until we get to the RM0.90 region.

Do not fall in love with a stock either, there will come a time when you should be selling Armada. But today, ... today is not that day. Not yet.

If you back at ALL past quarters, NP to SH of RM116mil is effectively the highest ever (two previous quarters had RM121mil and RM124mil profit).

This means Armada is back in business boys. This despite not 100% revenue from Olombendo, zero from Sterling III and very little from Kraken. So there is room to improve by a lot more.

I think no dividend for this year. They need to clear up as much debt as possible and tidy up the balance sheet. Next year onwards, once all their major FPSO projects are stable already, they should be able to pay out some handy dividends. I won't be surprised of dividends of RM0.05/share...imagine if you bought at ~RM0.60...your yield will be amazing.

Let's see how the market reacts after lunch. I'm expecting at least RM0.75!

OMS revenue should be supported till end 2018 based on the Lukoil contract, it's not sensible the recognized most of it by end of Q2 2017, and the contract was signed in Q3 2017 only.

Correction, media release says no supplementary payment for Kraken. To me most important is what is the core net profit. Have to wait for Monday morning for the IBs to tell us that.

Nice, above the expectation of RM100mil. I think since this includes payments for Kraken, core net profit should be higher still at around RM150mil. Not too sure about the taxation as well, seems a lot.

But at the same time we do not know how much of the profit has been boosted by the disposal of assets. It seems like RM15mil came from disposal of assets based on cash flow statements.

Chanyut, I know nothing about buy and sell signals. I buy when there's a promising story, I sell when the story is no longer as promising as it initially was. Very simple really.

I topped up 2 Fridays ago at RM0.685. I would have been an idiot to do so if I thought the quarter is bad. You can scroll up to confirm my past comments.

When did I say that? Please find any proof. I say QR will be better YoY AND QoQ.

I only said the price could have fallen yesterday due to adverse newsflow about Kraken. But if you read within the lines of the Kraken statement, Armada is already earning bareboat charter rates, just not at 100% until everything is commissioned.

Usually out end of day, no? I think quarter core net profits will be around RM80-100mil but reported net profits will be higher due to writeback of provisions for Kraken and sale of one of their Nigerian FPSO and some other assets.

Ask and ye shall receive (RHB report): http://rhb.ap.bdvision.ipreo.com/NSightWeb_v2.00/Handlers/Document.ashx?i=9d0cf7a994ed43eab822e8d72a71a2e0

I can share Maybank report later.

Volume is still very low. For price to jump up appreciably, you need the big fish to come in with big volumes and bid up the price.

I do believe we are at the bottom. With the PRA housekeeping done and two successive quarters of successful turnaround in China, better days lie ahead. Now, we won't ever go back to the glory days of RM10++, not even above RM1 likely. But going to RM0.60 and RM0.70 should be achievable. Parkson Bhd is now trading at a fairly large discount to NAV, even when you take into account a substantial holding company discount and remove goodwill/tangible assets from the equation.

Yeah I think for a long term, fund managers can stomach it. Will probably end the day solidly at RM1.72 and above. Then we go range-bound from RM1.70-RM1.80 for the next quarter (assuming the MYRUSD rate is at 4.25-4.32. Anything above/.below that range will trigger FX-based buying/selling.

Tomorrow some people might push the price up a bit to speculate on the results.

Guys, when I look at the segmental results for Q2 alone, I get these figures:

Particle board:

Rev: 75,765 vs 52,432
PBT: 11,484 vs 6,696 (71.5% growth YoY)

RTA:

Rev: 77,557 vs 69,332
PBT: 6,495 vs 11,241 (42.2% decline YoY!)

So we have particle board segment greatly increasing (most possibly due to the plant shutdown in April 2016), but the RTA segment has greatly fallen.

I think if the stock somehow hits ~RM1.80 in the next one week I will exit for now. Doesn't seem solid enough, unless there is a very good explanation in the sharp fall in PBT and margins for RTA segment.

Now to see this fall below RM1.20...come on!

Usually fund managers will wait for the research reports before they make a decision to buy/sell. So what's important now is that we get some good qualitative analysis in the HLIB/JF Apex reports.

How many outstanding warrants remain and when do they expire? I hope to start seeing comparable EPS growth.

It looks like the RTA segment contributed to the lower margins. Must find out how come. The particleboard segment was resilient.