Can confirm Amundi sold on the 12th as well. Let's party man!!!

Skliew, it's called pips.

Skliew, my NTA is at RM1.24. I calculate NTA only based on equity attributable to owners of the parent - non-controlling interest's equity is disregarded (as it should be). Number of shares outstanding at around 174mil after discounting 6mil treasury shares.

How they get T4Q P/E of 13.4X? That is if you fully dilute the warrants conversion, but it is silly as the warrant exercise price is at RM0.92 dated 2021. Actual T4Q P/E is at 10X excluding warrant dilution.

Also, how can they call it "demanding valuation"? Net cash, low P/BV, possible expansion in ROE. It's at worst fairly priced, maybe very slightly under priced.

But I missed the boat at RM0.72. My margin of safety has eroded. I obviously hope it comes down another time for me to get in, but if it doesn't I'd be interested to see regardless where this goes in 2-3 years time. Lots of potential I believe.

Looking at the past one month volume chart, 5/7 highest volume days have Amundi selling to the market. 2/7 remaining days are 8 Sept and 12 Sept, for which substantial shareholding circulars have not been published. Highly likely Amundi was the major player again.

Some analysis:

Lowest of the "7 days" is 22/8 with volume of 371,500. The next highest (i.e. 8th highest trading day) is 152,000. It shows that on days Amundi shows up, volume is MUCH HIGHER than on days Amundi is away. Also look at the one month chart...non Amundi days tend to be green days.

22/8 -- 300,000/371,500
24/8 -- 500,000/620,200
25/8 -- 500,000/528,700
06/9 -- 450,800/512,200
07/9 -- 763,800/979,700

Roughly on all the above days >80% of the daily trade volume is coming JUST FROM AMUNDI!

We can extrapolate for the research skliew has done that on 08/9 and 12/9, Amundi was selling again. If we take that Amundi would be involved in ~80% of the trading on those two days, then 80% * (412,000 + 578,900) = ~793,000. Which again matches the balance outstanding shares held by Amundi per skliew's research.

The data is there for all to see. Look at the buy queue at the end of today...it's got lots of interest. Sell queue barely anybody left now.

I feel tomorrow is when we can finally change course (unless somebody else decide to mess with the party!). Congrats to those who bought between 1.14-1.18. Those who didn't get what you get at open in the morning on the morrow. Prlexus time to move up has come!

PS: Might be wishful thinking, but there might be some truth to it here.

Now that MYR has stopped its ascent, we can go back to mid 1.65 hopefully. MD really potong stim lah.

Different managers. Epf outsource to many companies. Epf buying and selling on the same counter is nothing new.

Interesting work. Hopefully they've buggered off for good. Doesn't really make sense to sell at this so called bottom to be honest. As an EPF member, I'm kinda angry they're doing stupid things like this. Buy high, sell low. But as you said they might have to do it due to internal institutional guidelines mandating a selling off of non compliant securities within 4 months, for example. That's a possibility. Another possibility is they find out from the CEO that cash will still be more than 0.33x of total assets at the end of this quarter.

Whatever, that's their loss. Hopefully the selling ceases now that Amundi is likely out of the picture.

Skliew how many Amundi left holding? I have a feeling their want to sell all. No point keep whatever they have left. Once they bugger off we should be fine.

Maybe it can fall back to 0.65. I will be gleeful. Or maybe it goes to 0.90. Market still doesn't trust the earnings quality of Armada. Time will tell if the so-called "smart money" is smart after all, or not.

Results are always going to be baffling. You go and see Tan Chong. I bought it in May 2017 at RM1.82. The recent quarterly result was TERRIBLE, yet the share price did not fall any lower as it was massively priced in. I kinda feel the same will happen with Prolexus. Not to mention, Prolexus Q4 17 results WILL NOT be looked at for the profitability...rather what will be seen is has the cash & cash equivalents been transferred to plant, property and equipment on the balance sheet. This is because having a ratio of more than 0.33X cash/total assets took it out of the shariah compliant list. Getting back to below 0.33X of the ratio should see it re-included on the Shariah list in November. Islamic funds would then be free to buy the stock again and heavily average their holdings down.

To me, the stock market is crazy. Sometimes strong earnings beats see the stock falling. And sometimes a poor showing sees the stock rising. To me I am safe in my knowledge that Prolexus must be near the bottom at these levels. It may certainly fall lower, yes, but it will be an even more enticing bargain in such a situation.

Drop more buy more. Simple as.

nicholas, again that is also true. We can't tell for sure when the Feds/BNM/etc will raise rates. We can't predict events that spike currency rates (such as Trump winning presidency and 1MDB scandal). Best thing accoridng to Peter Lynch (and common sense if you ask me) is to diversify via natural hedging. Buy some "cheap"/well-priced growth-orientated net exporters, and buy some cheap/well-priced net importers (i.e. automakers). That way you benefit from swings in interest/exchange rates all the same, plus you get the bonus of having these companies appreciate in value regardless of the outcome since you bought at a margin of safety. It's just the timelines involved may be a bit different/out-of-sync.

I don't say ignore. I say we cannot be sure of the direction of the currency movement. Also read what I said above, in normalized/relative terms the Ringgit is still OK with the currencies of its export markets.

Guys, the currency of trade is USD but the pricing per export destination is always determined on a normalized/relative basis. During 2014-2016, Ringgit was depreciating against USD and a basket of CNY/JPY/KRW/INR. However, this year while Ringgit is appreciating against USD, it is holding steady or in some cases depreciating against CNY/JPY/KRW/INR...which is the local currency for a bulk of their exports.

Do not worry. As Peter Lynch said, ignore interest rates/currencies/etc. Focus on the fundamental story. As long as it holds, do not sell. Not any single human can actually predict interest rates/currencies/etc with any kind of certainty. These are largely unpredictable.

Good news from Kraken, that's why it rise at 4pm.

Not really, other wood furniture companies still ok. Hevea dropped like a rock because the MD spooked everyone, be it the retailers or institutions.

I too noted the huge selling volume. Indeed, we might be at the end of it. I know yesterday's big player was Amundi, maybe today it was them as well.

Quarter will definitely be worse YoY, but not necessarily be bad enough to warrant further downwards share price movement. But the market is irrational, it is but a folly to predict what the maniac will do.

If you don't mind sharing, how have you been buying the way down? Meaning, at what prices and when?

Since I failed to sell at RM1.60-RM1.70, I'm now stuck and holding on. Lesson to learn, but I do not regret not selling out. The story hand't changed and the valuation was not at too high a premium/unfounded.

Hello everybody, in @ RM1.16 just moments ago. Long-term holding. Fundamentals look good. Near term catalyst is the re-inclusion into the Shariah index in mid/end Nov 2017. Long-term growth possible with the Vietnam plant (topline expansion) and the Johor fabric mill (margin expansion).

I buy cause I deem it to be "cheap" at the moment. It is finally the "best" option I have at this moment in time. However, doesn't mean the price won't drop lower still. I will likely come in for a second round should the price for whatever reason tank at the end of this month when Q4 17 results are out. My second round will be when the price gets 10% below my buying price, i.e. at ~RM1.05.

Good luck to everyone. I remember putting in buy orders at RM1.48 a few months ago. Thankfully they never got filled. Patience to some extent has paid off. Now to hope for Prolexus to be a multi-bagger over a 3-5 year period.

Out at 3.42. Good luck to the rest. Entry at 2.67 in Feb with 0.12 in dividends collected.

Walao I just read the Maybank report for Q2 2017. Not sure what to think of it.

According to Maybank, the CORE NET PROFIT was only RM35mil!!! They claim RM85mil of the profit was of a one-off nature. Sounds very, very off base. Anyone can make sense of it?

If what Maybank is saying is true, then we might be in big trouble and this may likely be what's holding the stock price down. Still, I don't believe the core net profit assumption is accurate, but I wanted some independent thought from you guys.

Link: http://factsettd.maybank-ke.com/TD_PORT_FactSetPartners/iredirect?wop=0001340005789b62&BSQDEhhSHCwUXEkVPDIHeEEFB11UfFJZCjxCFXlWKgUBV1YFLmQSdlUZPExDfgRWQ0cGWVxzWGlJUURxV10VOR1OJlUJERVfKSEDEls7Hh9sGSRFBQVe

Ringgit is already at RM4.235. I think it might be prudent to start thinking about jumping ship soon.

To me the reason it has dropped the past 2 days is due to the USD-MYR FX rate.

Also, it is true. EPF buying in and of itself means nothing. They lose more often than they win. But it's indication that Hevea is gaining institutional support, which is usually important as the prices will be supported by these big institutions.

The buyer already queue there long time. Might be Manulife group of funds or some other person.

Gone, block at 1.19 is gone. Question is, how low do we fall? Someone disposed a 5000 lot block. Looks like EPF-Amundi is at it again.

free2invest, those are sell side analysts lah. They don't do buying or selling. The buying and selling is done at the buy side, i.e. unit trust funds/EPF/PNB/insurance etc.

Management may be urging caution simply to avoid expectations running ahead. The TP for Apex/HLB is for end of FY2018. Management can't possibly know the direction of the Ringgit or the price of commodities, which tend to fluctuate for no reason at all.

There might be other strategic reasons for management to urge caution.

But still, it's worrying.

I wonder though...did Hevea head honcho call The Edge, or The Edge call him.

If he call, question is what's the motive? It doesn't necessarily seem like Hevea is totally overvalued...since it at least has a healthy dividend yield and is generating cash consistently on a yearly basis.

If The Edge call him, then they may have their own agenda one. The tone of the article is dictated by them. Business news reporters sometimes try to act funny and affect prices. Might be the writer missed the boat earlier and wants a second chance to buy in at ~RM1.50? ;)

Good prospects most likely. Management knows something is up. They sapu the shares in the open market slowly and they have given their commitment to the rights issue, even though the rights issue is not necessary since CWG has ample FCF, sufficient working capital and an adequate current ratio. Net gearing at 0.35X.

So ask yourself...why management so syoik to rights issue? They know more than us...they want to increase their stake at the expense of the small holder. They probably foresee that costs are under control.

I might enter to test my theory above, but only at roughly 0.45 cents to give myself some room for error in judgement.

This is one of the most overvalued stocks

Today opened at RM14.70 at high volume (usually sell queue is thin at open), seems suspicious given the lack of positive newsflow. Then algos kicked in momentarily to drive price higher, before sensible fund managers took profit.

Walao, that means EPF is not a substantial shareholder in Hevea. This explains the fast move from ~RM1.45 to RM1.65 one or two months back. EPF was aggressively collecting.

Usually if EPF buy or sell it doesn't mean much lah to be honest, cause EPF's stock market performance is pretty poor in general terms. But it does mean that the institutions have taken interest in Hevea, and they tend to have a longer term view, so share prices may be supported at RM1.60 by these very same institutions.

Fair enough, looking at the long term. The potential future yield does not look attractive just yet. Maybe if it retreats to RM2.25 levels I will consider it more strongly. For now, it goes on my watchlist. I've done my preliminary research. Read the MIDF initiation report to get up to speed on the business's fundamentals. Favco seems to have a very strong moat and track record with offshore/tower cranes.

It is the export of sawn timber that has been banned. Hevea uses the logs. Logs have always been banned. Hevea is an upstream customer of rubber wood, they will not benefit. The benefit in terms of production costs will be seen by downstream users of sawn timber.

Patrick you are not answering the good sir's question.

Answer from the article:

"HeveaBoard isn’t benefiting much from the export ban on rubber wood [sawn timber] mainly because the company consumes rubber wood [logs] as raw materials. And that log export has been banned a long while ago."

Wow I had a shocker looking at the buy queue. Big buyer @1.19, then poof...all the way down to 1.12. All we need is Amundi to dispose one block (or even just 300k as they sometimes do), and we're good to go.

Yeah Patrick, not sure how much of it is down to media sensationalization. Direct quotes from the Hevea head honcho don't sound so bad/depressing.

Today Hevea drop not to market, but due to unclear/uncertain future growth sustainability.

Seems more like the MD just wants to keep expectations in check. I might bail soon. See if I find other better opportunities or not.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/heveaboard-faces-challenges-sustain-growth

Bad news but he just sounds very diplomatic. Better to avoid over-confidence and then surprise on the upside. Sometimes they do this in the USA. But over the long-run, Hevea should be ok, so long the Ringgit don't strengthen too much.

Engine die already, cannot fly so fast one.

Walao weh.,..looks big in absolute terms, but % terms not much.

Likely AirAsia will open positively tomorrow.

Thing is, Tony say AAC sale is "imminent"...when wor?

Net cash per share is at RM1.61/share. Seems rather high. Would appreciate it if someone could point out if I am missing something.

So what's the deal here, net cash position at half the market cap. What am I missing?

Since Prolexus is already hiring for their new plants, this will likely further eat into the start-up costs for Q1/Q2 FY2018.

Now my dilemma is...do I come in now, or wait for end of September (after Q4 FY17 out), or wait for end of December (after Q1 FY18)...have to make decisions soon.

Patience my friends, let the warrants get converted. No hurry. Current price is good entry point, but as an investor your job is to look for large discounts, not minor discounts or fair value, or worst still, pay a premium.

Be patient guys, next few weeks/months likely the trading will be rangebound. Downside would be capped pending Q3 results. In the event Q3 results do not live up to the hype, only then will we see a mass exodus and a plunge in the share price. Till then, keep a look out on the big picture. Trading will likely be stuck between 1.60-1.80 till end November.

We are only at 0.55X P/BV. As long as ROE goes back above 6%, price will move up. If ROE can return to the glory days of double digit (i.e. 11% ROE), then we are looking at the share price doubling/tripling up.