On any individual basis Omicron is milder 70% milder than delta.
However on a communal basis Omicron is pretty bad because it is 300-400% more transmissible.

This is why US hospitals in states like New York, are starting to see record high levels of hospitalization.

Hospital capacity is limited. It does not if the virus is more severe or not, if it fills the hospital to capacity.

Essentially which is worst?
Option A: 10% hospitalization, 100,000 infected
Option B: 3% hospitalization 1,000,000 infected.

To a person Option A is worse, because higher chance you go to hospital (option A: Option B = 10%: 3%)

To a community Option B is worse because more people end up in the hospital (Option A: Option B = 10,000 vs 30,000)

Given the fall is mostly due to selling at the +1000 lot range... institutional investors are dumping.

So who knows.... might be the continuation of Inari fall.

Pfizer 3 doses is 70% efficacy to Omicron. 30% masuk hospital
Pfizer 2 dose is 20-25% efficacy to Omicron

Put it another way, 3 dose of pfizer offers less protection to Omicron than 2 doses pfizer to Delta. Omicron 70% vs Delta 85%

No idea how long that protection will last but it will be less than 6 months.


Posted by UlarSawa > Dec 15, 2021 10:28 PM | Report Abuse
Pfizer said 3 dosea can handle omicron. Sinonac said 3 doses can handle omicron. Moderna said maybe cannot handle omicron. Then use Pfizer and Sinovac vaksin lah. Simple right. Correct?

BURSA

Or maybe short sellers wanted to break the block at RM1.98

Probably the horrible realization that omicron is real. And China need more gloves for the winter Olympics.

Nooo... my RM1 dream...

Actually it is 89% effective against preventing deaths from Delta and works on Omicron too. They have no good number for Omicron, because not that many people have died from omicron yet.

However for hospitalization, the drug is only 30% effectiveness. And Pfizer production capacity is only 80 million courses per year (enough for 80 million people). US government has already purchased 10 million courses at USD 529 a course.

So that is RM2120 and we have no chance of getting any.



Posted by haha1234 > Dec 15, 2021 4:03 PM | Report Abuse
pfizer final report shows 90% efficiency against omicron

Nope. New game.

Now is bargain hunting time! If panic selling can push TG to RM1.00 or below, I am all in.

Where is the bottom? Catch the bottom? Can we push below pre-covid prices.

Posted by GlovesOff > Dec 15, 2021 3:24 PM | Report Abuse
Apa ini red pill blue pill
Game/party over, apa susah paham?

And you must understand what the pill does and does not do.
It reduces deaths significantly but reduce hospitalization by only 30%.

People are still stuck in the hospital. THey just don't go to the morgue so much.




-----

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 15, 2021 1:29 PM | Report Abuse

must understand the industry

Covid pill will be free for all residents in North America and most of Europe, China, Australia, Israel,......citizens and aliens included

a whole city of businesses have this characteristic
[Basic Business School Lesson 101]

=> Those with money to buy your product do not need it.

=> Those with no money to buy your product needs it.

I think Chinese government has more important things on their mind than buying 100bn gloves and giving it away FOC. Evergrande just crash with USD 300 billion in debt.



Posted by i3lurker > Dec 15, 2021 1:32 PM | Report Abuse
Thats where China will buy 100 Billion pcs of gloves from mainland China Factories
and give it away for free to those who cannot afford to pay for it,,,

As of 2 December 2021, there were 129,423 Malaysian CDS accounts and 9080 Singaporean CDP accounts,

At most 138K share holders holding 8 billion shares. Top 25 shareholders own 62.03% of the company.


Posted by williamh > Dec 15, 2021 1:21 PM | Report Abuse
Dividend to pay for 8 million share holders to coming Q will be a challenging factor considering 1.2 c now

I talk of insufficient supply and lack of political will to nationalize critical supplies.

If we humanity, really wanted to end covid, we can do so in as little as 3 weeks. No drugs. No vaccine. Just 95% quarantine and mask wearing One and done. Can end covid before Jan 2022... if there was the will.

But that is unrealistic... just like 80 million course a year of a moderate costing drug... that people in many poorer nations cannot afford.

Same reason why we don't see monoclonal antibody treatment wiping out Delta or Omicron. Monoclonal antibodies work, works well and cost USD 2000 - USD 3000 per dose and several doses are need.



Posted by i3lurker > Dec 15, 2021 12:55 PM | Report Abuse
aiseh we talk apple you talk rotten oranges

:)

Ah but while the pill reduces covid death by 89% (which variant?), it only reduces hospitalization by 30%. (Omicron is 300%-400% more contagious)

Pfizer has production capacity to make about 80 million courses of ritonavir in 2022. 10 million courses has already been purchased by the US government at USD 529 per course. Aka EM2120 per course and only 80 million people can be treated.

40% of Americans do not have 400 dollar in the bank.

So yeah... try something else to justify TP = 50 sen.



https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/14/pfizer-covid-19-pill-near-90-percent-effective-in-clinical-trial

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 15, 2021 12:23 PM | Report Abuse

after Global Distribution of Covid Pill

for TG, both 2022 and 2023 is very possible reporting losses

MrsLim TP = 50 sen might be achievable

Haha... no. Cancer is not a single disease... it is problem similar to house repair. Can't prevent a house from needing repairs. Wear and tear and time. The big problem is the house was shoddily built and was not designed to for large repair work. Only minor things.

So how to keep the house in good working order?

The solution that nature settled on was for the resident to move to a new house when the old house got worn and tired. Get a new house and throw the old house away. The problem is we aren't the resident... we are the house.


Posted by DickyMe > Dec 15, 2021 12:00 PM | Report Abuse
There are many discoveries in medical science kept under wraps.

Diabetes and cancer ailments will be a thing of the past.

If sentiment is negative. People will sell. And JPM will issue an even lower TP. And people will sell some more. And the big boys will come in and buy.

I mean at this point, the 1000+ lot range.. is 88% buy. While the 1-99 lot range is only 47% Buy.




Posted by metroview > Dec 15, 2021 11:17 AM | Report Abuse
price everyday getting lower and lower, TP really 1.5 ?

Everyone who wants to sell has already sold. TG has reverted to pre-pandemic prices. Sentiment has already declared the pandemic over.

In the real world, Delta is still present while newcomer Omicron is 300%-400% more contagious and only 29% less severe than Delta.

Milder does not mean harmless. People in S. Africa are still in the ICU. 10% of S.African hospitalization for covid is in the ICU. Lower than delta but still in the ICU. People still die. Excess deaths in S.A doubled between the last week of November and the first week of December.

Alot of people are going to be infected by Omicron as it can cut through double vaccination like butter and reinfect people who had previous infection of covid.

And with alot more people infected, even a small percentage dying is still a lot of people dead. A small percentage of a big number is still a big number. Omicron dramatically increased transmisiblity and wider host range more than makes up for its lower lethality.

As for vaccine... Half the world has not yet been vaccinated. But sure it will be reformulated. People in the US and other developed countries will get their vaccine... but we aren't in the developed world will get ours later.. much later. The first pfizer vaccine got released in December 2020. I don't know about you, but I only got vaccinated in August 2021.

Moderna says they can get their vaccine done in March 2022. So we can expect to get our vaccine somewhere around December 2022-Jan 2023. And still half of the world won't have the new vaccine if we rolled out as slowly as we did in 2021.


You can say don't buy TG shares because the super bull run will not occur again. I can accept that. Sentiment has fully turned against gloves. But never say, Omicron is safer. It can kill a lot more people than Delta because it is several times more infectious than Delta.

And remember, Delta is also mild. The SAR-Cov2 virus from Alpha to Delta has been a mild virus. 80% of people infected will never know they had the virus. Only 1-2% who are infected actually die. A small percentage. So there is very little pressure on Omicron to dramatically improve the preservation of the current host because most of the host (98%-99%) survive anyway.

But because so many people were infected, over 5 million people around the world are now dead. The power of covid has never been its killing ability. Its power is its ability to spread.

Also when speaking of the virus becoming milder, it was in reference to viruses such as myxomatosis virus with an initial mortality rate of close to 99.8%, or even the 1918 H1N1 influenza (spanish flu) with a mortality rate between 10%-20%. To recap, the mortality rate of SARS-Cov2 is 1-2%. There is not as much space for Covid to go down.

So keeping wear a mask, were some eye protection and keep social distancing. Keep your guard up. Don't buy TG share if you don't like it. The glove bull run is over but the pandemic is not.

Don't remember CBP ban? MCO lock down, then TG lockdown due to covid outbreak.



Posted by Stockisnotfun > Dec 14, 2021 1:22 PM | Report Abuse
That's even worse. With whatever variant coming up, u can see that topglove QR has gradually decline. That means what? Demand is increasing but topglove market sales kena divided by other competitors.

Does Serba have any assets?
Which bank has seniority in the loan? If there are assets to liquidate, which banks gets paid first.


Posted by i3lurker > Dec 9, 2021 10:45 PM | Report Abuse

I highly doubt Public Bank loan to Serba is recoverable

Public Islamic Bank, Term Equity Financing, Cash Line, Overdraft : RM 18.8 million

vs

CIMB Bank Berhad, Overdraft, LC, Guarantee : RM 4 million


The kindergarden question => Is 18.8 bigger or 4 million bigger?

Well luckily TG is still profitable. As the pandemic ends, it dividends will shrink and going back to normal, like it has done many times in the past 20 years. But each outbreaks injects massive amount of money into the company, allowing it to expend. By 2025, TG aims to increase its production capacity to 201bn gloves, which is nearly 300% from its pre-pandemic days. TG has already increased its production capacity from 68bn gloves to 100bn gloves per year.

It is how much money the company generate and how much money dividends it is paying.

Public Bank has a NTA of RM2.421 and is trading at RM4.01

LCTITAN has a NTA of RM5.70 and is trading at RM2.25, when as low as 97.5sen

Tenaga has an NTA of RM9.639 and is trading at RM9.20

Maybank has an NTA of RM7.174 and is trading at RM8.11

Anyway... if you don't feel comfortable investing in TG, don't. There are a lot of other companies you can invest in.

Just remember, even though the glove bull run is over and has reverted to pre-pandemic prices, the covid pandemic continues. Take care of yourself.


Posted by FabioDulan > Dec 14, 2021 10:54 AM | Report Abuse
After minus everything else the net tangible assets is only 0.86 per share. If company is not profitable running into losses, how is dividend payout sustainable? Don't u think share price now 2.xx is overpriced?

All who wanted to sell already sold.

All who wanted to stay and in it for the long term.

We have looked at China, TG has factory in China. If China is so conducive to Gloves, TG can open more factories in China. TG can follow Wilma.

Gloves are a dead end industry, there is no national future making gloves. Chinese government will put most of its money into high tech. Microchips etc. Even China has finite resources.

Gloves will not surge because market sentiment is 100% against gloves. And even when there was a covid surge in 2021, gloves share prices fell. More people were hospitalized and died in 2021 than 2020, but TG share peaked in October 2020 before the first large covid surge.

So even if there were surges of covid throughout 2022, gloves will remain down, many people share the antiglove sentiment,. However a surge and with CBP ban gone, TG sales will improve and dividend will be good.

This is mainly of interested to people who have decided to become long term investors of TG. The covid pandemic is continuing and TG has reverted to pre-covid prices.

China would be better served donating vaccines which it produces in large quantities and requires significant technical skill, rather than expend its production of low value, large volume item like gloves.



Posted by NatsukoMishima > Dec 14, 2021 8:33 AM | Report Abuse

So whst ? U think glove stock will surge again just because the uk death cases ? USA market already digested the omicron news n no kneel jerking ! Wake up all glove loyalty fans because the main factor to impact malaysia glove stock is China continue throwing price until net loss to control the market n even donate free to poor countries for good relationship !

Covid: First UK death recorded with Omicron variant
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59627188

Glove bull run is over but Covid pandemic remains.

TG now has factory in China. Can open more if sales are always 100%.
Sooo....


Posted by i3lurker > Dec 13, 2021 7:45 PM | Report Abuse
despite what Macau Scammers brainwash you, Gloves is now Number 1 priority to China.
Glove company in China will be well supported.
China government will buy up all 100% of their production and give it away for free.

All he burn was his own dividends.
At his level what is a few hundred million? Lose some, earn some. Most important when he list in HK, his percentage ownership remains high.

Posted by hoot9e996 > Dec 13, 2021 5:09 PM | Report Abuse
a bit hard TG boss bought own share are high price, he himself burnt his own hands. with EPF selling everday..... cant see the light at the end of the tunnel. company should just consolidate and try to defend share price 1 green week not like up a lot just stabilize the share price and you can see all promoters come back with good news

Covid chaos in South Africa as country finds 19,000 unrecorded cases making a record 37,000 new infections added today and leaving public clueless as to whether Omicron wave has peaked or not – and even the PRESIDENT has tested positive

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10302439/Covid-chaos-South-Africa-country-finds-19-000-unrecorded-cases-President-tests-positive.html

Yup, even the 'peaking' of omicron is an artifact.

Just an IT problem over the weekend. Cases could not be reported to the system. In reality omicron continues to grow.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10302439/Covid-chaos-South-Africa-country-finds-19-000-unrecorded-cases-President-tests-positive.html

China's Evergrande group just crash under billions of debt. China's government and banking sectors will be busy putting out that debt fire.

I don't think Chinese banks or its governments will be interested in investing in gloves.. low cost, large volume item. They will be too busy. Gloves isn't the technology that will bring China into the future. That is microchips.

And TG is already entrenched will billions to burn in its expansion. So it will be an uphill battle for a piece of real estate that is not part of China's future. New factories aren't profitable For some time.

China does not have infinite resources. Can't be king everywhere, because if you try, you are king of nowhere.

Posted by xiaomixiaohai > Dec 13, 2021 9:56 AM | Report Abuse
China is the most determined country in the world mah.... when they decided to produce gloves in large numbers....then Malaysia's glovemakers cannot compete loh....game over!

Then what stock would benefit if the covid pandemic continues?

AA will fly if pandemic ends. Glove is my example of a contra to AirAsia in the pandemic. PPE vs Air travel. Perhaps you have a better example.

What is your favorite stock. And are you an investor or trader?


Posted by i3lurker > Dec 11, 2021 8:38 PM | Report Abuse
Wrong advice to buy gloves

It depend on your position on the covid pandemic.

If you think the covid pandemic is going to end soon, you should buy AirAsia now. Price is quite low and should shoot up as countries open up and people start traveling again.

If you think the covid pandemic has more to go, you should buy gloves because the price is quite low, and should shoot up as more countries lockdowns in order to buy themselves time to prepare for the new wave of covid variants. With less travel, AA will continue to starve and is in real danger of going bust.

Right now, both gloves and AA are down, indicating that the market is confused and fearful. The pandemic is going to end soon or it is not. Omicron is a danger or it is not. It cannot be both.

Practically, what price you buy depends on how much loses (paper and real) you can take, how long you are willing to hold and how confident you are in the company. And what person are you, an investor or trader.

If you are a trader... then the only answer you need to know is will the share prices will go up within your time frame. (next 5 min, next 3 days or next week). If you can forecast the future, it does not matter what price you buy or what you buy.

If you are an investor, AA at its peak was worth RM3.50 and was the largest budget carrier in South East Asia. So what does it matter if you buy are RM1, RM0.78 or RM0.30, you are going to make a profit anyway if you can hold on, if the company survives this pandemic.

However if AA goes bust, and dies... your stocks goes to zero.... can you take that? Ask yourself how much are you willing to lose. Technically AA is already bankrupt. This right issue is CPR in an attempt to keep the company alive a little longer. Most airlines have their government financial support but not AA.



Posted by Benhobenhobenho > Dec 10, 2021 3:48 PM | Report Abuse
Someone told me to buy AirAsia, should I n what price can buy, anyone

If can below 2... it would be a good deal. pre-covid price... while covid is stil kicking around.

Posted by Gkhan > Dec 10, 2021 4:59 PM | Report Abuse
high possibility below 2

Entitlement Date:
Thursday, 2 December 2021 at 5.00 p.m.

Last date and time for the sale of Provisional Allotments:
Friday, 10 December 2021 at 5.00 p.m.

Last date and time for the transfer of Provisional Allotments:
Tuesday, 14 December 2021 at 4.30 p.m.

Last date and time for acceptance and payment:
Monday, 20 December 2021 at 5.00 p.m.

Last date and time for excess application and payment:
Monday, 20 December 2021 at 5.00 p.m.


Today is the last trading day for rights.

Because Andy Hall has the magic ability... when he speaks the US government obeys.

Alternatively he is a paid US agent, whose job is to attack Malaysian industry.. to give cause for the US government to exert pressure on the Malaysian government by way of Malaysian industries... so that Malaysia cuts off economic ties with China... or better yet attack China economically. Join the American Anti-China block

Posted by xiaomixiaohai > Dec 8, 2021 9:57 PM | Report Abuse
Then how come it took only one social activist like Andy hall can bring down so many companies accused of forced labour leh haha lol

How did you come to that?

Posted by limkokthye > Dec 8, 2021 8:10 PM | Report Abuse
tnb fair value 5.00

Much healthier times.
EPS was over RM1 and DPS was around 30sen.
Now average EPS is around ~70sen and DPS is ~90sen.

It is not EPS that is worrying. It is the DPS that is the killer.
Management problem.



Posted by prudentinvestor > Dec 7, 2021 11:48 AM | Report Abuse
Think of the days when Tenaga was trading at over RM14 a share and its earnings per share exceeded RM1. The good old days will return one day. Think positive!

Nope.

Don't own any TNB but looking to buy given the fall in share prices. TNB has a monopoly on Malaysian power production. So TNB should be a super great company to own.

However my 'research' paints a weird picture. Does not make sense why TNB is paying more Dividends than its Earns for 2 years in a row. Normal dividend is already quite good. The special dividend is too much, and no logical reason.

Feels like some major share owner is trying to empty the company of its value, before dumping the husk back to the malaysian government (Khazanah/EPF)

I would prefer TNB stopped paying its special dividend... because that would bankrupt the company in the long run. I am worried that TNB has been placed on the same path that MAS was forced to walk 30 years ago... and we all know what eventually happened to MAS. (Poor MAS)

Being long term investor in dividend paying companies is alot easier. Trading is for excitement. Investing is for making money.


Posted by LossAversion > Dec 7, 2021 8:43 AM | Report Abuse
pBlue, sour grape?

Since 2019 TNB has been paying more dividend than it earns in profits. Thereby TNB has to be accruing debt somewhere to make these unsustainable dividend payments.

TNB has also been on a longer term decline in share prices since 2018, falling from a high of RM15.8x

So I think TNB special dividends will have to come to an end. Take that out and TNB share prices is worth a lot less.


Posted by M55555 > Dec 6, 2021 10:35 PM | Report Abuse
KWSP know somethings we don't??? They have been disposing non stop. And we collecting ?

Worse, only full vaccinated people are allowed to leave S.Africa as per international travel rules. So only subvariants that can overcome the vaccine (usually pfizer) are able to spread internationally.

Every case of omicron outside S. Africa is a case where the virus beat the vaccine.

This means the subvariant of omicron that will hit the international community will have significant resistance to the vaccine.

Posted by EatCoconutCanWin > Dec 3, 2021 7:49 AM | Report Abuse
Vaccine can't work for Omicron. This virus transmitted from vaccinated ppl.

Hospitalisations have risen by 330% in the past two weeks in the South African province where the Omicron Covid variant was first detected.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/hospitalisations-soar-330-south-african-25576743

IVM is not an antiviral. Has no antiviral activity. It is a ion channel inhibitor of invertebrate muscles and nerves. Covid is not an insect and does not have muscles or nerves. Zero effect.

Posted by jasonor > Dec 1, 2021 5:23 PM | Report Abuse

don't worry. africa got antiviral drugs like ivm. soon it will goes down like nothing happened.

Must understand something about SA . Most people being tested in SA at the moment are fully vaccinated people who are traveling internationally or uni students going back to campus.

So omicron is mild for fully vaccinated, young healthy adults, who have had the virus for less than a week.

The same can be said for Delta for young healthy adults that have been fully vaccinated and has only recently caught the virus (1-2 weeks).

What happens after week 3 of illness. What happens when person is not vaccinated. What happens when person is not 20 something and has diabetes.



Posted by ahbah > Nov 30, 2021 11:55 AM | Report Abuse

'The South African ministry of health said most cases have been mild.'

Mild onli lah.

So, no wori.

As for omicron being mild, all covid are mild in the first week of infection. And most people (80%) who get covid are asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms. This is true even for Delta.

Covid only becomes a problem if your body cannot beat it within 2 weeks. And this is a seen in about 20% of people infected. Only 5% actually become very ill.

The real problem is that hospitals cannot accommodate many people at any one time. Global average is 2.89 hospital beds for 1000 people. So if even 0.3% of the population became ill at the same time, the hospital system would collapse.

Omicron is estimated to be 5x more infectious than Delta. So even if Omicron was 2x milder than Delta, it would still land more people in the ICU

If omicron were 5x milder, it would still put as many people in the ICu as a delta outbreak,

The point that is being stressed is don't let your guard down.

Given what we have seen a good QR is not important. Stock prices in the short term is driven by sentiment. As long as people believe the pandemic will end tomorrow, TG prices will be low. Does not matter if tomorrow is a year or two from now.


Posted by UlarSawa > Nov 30, 2021 9:01 AM | Report Abuse
not only dji recovered even bitcoin also recovered as new variant news is not going to much effect already. Only good QR is the answer. Correct?

It isn't RM3.47, but RM3.2x isn't bad. Up ~50 sen in a day.

The vaccine for D614G was ready in Dec 2020. 79% of malaysia have been vaccinated as of late nov 2021. Globally only 55.5% of the population has been vaccinated by late Nov 2021. And we already need a new vaccine because we may have a variant that has made the original vaccine obsolete.

It is too slow. The roll out is too slow.



Posted by mf > Nov 29, 2021 11:36 AM | Report Abuse
Moderna says an omicron variant vaccine could be ready in early 2022

These people were all tested negative 72 hours before leaving South Africa.

----
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/passengers-south-africa-face-wait-covid-19-testing-amsterdam-2021-11-26/

AMSTERDAM, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Dutch health authorities said that 61 people who arrived in Amsterdam on two flights from South Africa on Friday tested positive for COVID-19, and they were conducting further testing early Saturday to see if any of the infections are with the recently discovered Omicron coronavirus variant.

Around 600 passengers arrived at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport on the two KLM flights on Friday and then faced hours of delays and testing due to concerns over the new virus variant.

The Dutch health ministry said early Saturday 61 tests had come back positive.

"Travelers with a positive test result will be placed in isolation at a hotel at or near Schiphol," health authorities said in a statement.

"Of the positive test results, we are researching as quickly as possible whether they are the new variant of concern, now named 'Omicron'."

While I agree about quarantine. 10 days is too short. 21 days is the minimum and you still need to watch out for viral escape. About 1% of covid cases have an incubation period longer than 14 days. Longest covid incubation period was 27 days.


Posted by IronShirt > Nov 27, 2021 6:05 PM | Report Abuse
just a simple 10days quarantine will stop all transmission dead....localised quarantine of only
infected area rather than blanket quarantine that ruin the economy is proven to be more effective.
A very Good example is China with 1.3Bil people....the problem is most westerner cannot due
with quarantine as compare with Chinese

Already too late
Omicron is already outside Africa. It is now in Belgium, Hong Kong and Israel.



Posted by IronShirt > Nov 27, 2021 8:36 AM | Report Abuse

After the Delta Variant fiasco, EU and USA are reacting very fast by cutting Air Travel to South
Africa Countries. Even Malaysia blocks travelling to South Africa and Others as of Today.
In 2-3 weeks, South African Variant B.1.1.529 will be contained in Africa countries maybe inside
one or 2 countries ( other neighbours will also closed border ) So far only 100 active cases are
discovered......Big Over reaction by Dow Jones. However DJ is balance on a "Pin Head", even
a breeze can caused a massive Humpty-Dumpty Big Fall....

Also less buying.
Less everything. Less movement.

Posted by bpsiah > Nov 1, 2021 11:28 AM | Report Abuse

Short run 0.15% and RM200 no good but in long run may be good bcos short sellers will need to think twice before shorting.

Taxes is up in 2022 ... so while revenue maybe up, profit maybe flat if lucky.

Posted by Thirai Thiraviam > Nov 1, 2021 3:23 PM | Report Abuse
Bursa revenue is up, profit is above consensus, but TP is slashed. Funny.

Alot given EPF likes to trade, and doesn't quietly sit and collect dividends