sunztzhe

sunztzhe | Joined since 2014-01-13

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News & Blogs

2014-10-14 13:08 | Report Abuse

Right now there's no clarity.... lots of gloom & doom,uncertainty but quietly USA is exporting Oil & Gas, US economy is gaining more traction, US BOP is improving as USA is now a Oil & Gas exporter. The bulk of US LNG will go to Asia which will demand more and more energy as Asian countries restructure their economies, encourage investments, industrialize more and move up the economic value added chain.

The expanded Panama canal due to be completed by late 2015/early 2016 will provide larger opportunities for US LNG suppliers as they compete in the global marketplace. Travel times from the Gulf Coast to East Asia could be cut from 63.6 days down to 43.4 days, reducing costs by 24 percent.

US infrastructure since the 1940s had been decaying and remained underinvested. There is increasing likelihood that as manufacturing gathers more traction in USA, investment in upgrading/new infrastructure will follow in tandem. So all is not gloom and doom as it is currently perceived to be.

Stock

2014-10-14 11:19 | Report Abuse

congrats to hng33 for buying at lowest and he's in the money now.

Stock

2014-10-14 10:45 | Report Abuse

Buy at these prices and become a STRONG HAND and ride the up trend.

Stock

2014-10-14 10:44 | Report Abuse

The window of opportunity to accumulate at these undervalued prices may be closing soon.

Stock

2014-10-13 22:15 | Report Abuse

Improving fundamentals of any stock will lead to higher future prices. Deteriorating fundamentals will lead to lower future prices. Charts are just recording past stock info and gives good info on supports, resistance, trend lines etc. I rather focus on stock fundamentals as this has a direct impact on its future share price movement.

Stock

2014-10-13 22:04 | Report Abuse

Every person has to be very clear on whether they want to be a value investor, a trader or punter or a mixed FA cum TA. Just stick to the profile which best suit you and which you had great success in.

Stock

2014-10-13 22:01 | Report Abuse

The intrinsic value of any business is always expressed in $$$$ whether the market is bullish or bearish. The market price may vary in bullish market versus bearish market but the intrinsic value is the same whether in bear or bull market. In normal cases the market price is below the intrinsic worth of any stock.

Stock

2014-10-13 21:24 | Report Abuse

Not to worry xdar..Zelan's glory will be coming in 2015, just be patient.

Stock

2014-10-13 21:19 | Report Abuse

As population grows and economy grows the consumption of water will grow higher and higher. This is an evergreen business. Politicians come and go. Some make good decision for the rakyat but some just play politics to the gallery for their own interest. But they still come and go.

Stock

2014-10-13 20:38 | Report Abuse

Just think through objectively and ask yourself whether the fundamentals of KPS had been impaired by the past week stock market gyrations cum deep correction? KPS business is still the same throughout the week . It is business as usual. What has changed. It is your own subjective perception that has changed but not KPS business.

What is the intrinsic value of KPS right now? Will be the intrinsic value of KPS be enhanced tremendously if SPLASH deal is closed at 1.0 book value as per 2009 offer by Khalid, the previous MB? I have observed that the only person who fully understand KPS business and knows how to value its business is hng33. He had been buying as he knows the true worth of KPS business. Others may know but they are guided by emotional thinking rather than focused objective thinking on current and future intrinsic worth if SPLASH deal is sealed at 1.0 book value.

Stock

2014-10-13 20:21 | Report Abuse

There had been a lot of unwarranted fear over the past week causing many to panic first rather than think through that it is not all gloom and doom. In my view, the past week especially last Friday and today was a great opportunity to buy in.

The US economy is gaining stronger growth traction and that will be good for the global economy and the global market will soon be heading higher in the fourth quarter.

Stock

2014-10-13 20:20 | Report Abuse

There had been a lot of unwarranted fear over the past week causing many to panic first rather than think through that it is not all gloom and doom. In my view, the past week especially last Friday and today was a great opportunity to buy in.

The US economy is gaining stronger growth traction and that will be good for the global economy and the global market will soon be heading higher in the fourth quarter.

Stock

2014-10-13 20:20 | Report Abuse

There had been a lot of unwarranted fear over the past week causing many to panic first rather than think through that it is not all gloom and doom. In my view, the past week especially last Friday and today was a great opportunity to buy in.

The US economy is gaining stronger growth traction and that will be good for the global economy and the global market will soon be heading higher in the fourth quarter.

Stock

2014-10-13 20:18 | Report Abuse

There had been a lot of unwarranted fear over the past week causing many to panic first rather than think through that it is not all gloom and doom. In my view, the past week especially last Friday and today was a great opportunity to buy in.

The US economy is gaining stronger growth traction and that will be good for the global economy and the global market will soon be heading higher in the fourth quarter.

Stock

2014-10-13 20:09 | Report Abuse

Strong hands are patiently picking up BJCORP at undervalued prices from weak hands and contra players.

News & Blogs

2014-10-12 21:25 | Report Abuse

US manufacturing had and are already moving back to USA and requires better infrastructure facilities in USA. It is just a matter of time that current gloom, doom and market uncertainty will soon make way for renewed optimism as Tarullo, a voting member of the Fed's policymaking committee had already hinted of future possibilities in USA

Quote: "Right now the physical capital stock (of the country) is about as old as it has been in the post World War Two era ... That suggests an underinvestment" Unquote

It will be very interesting to see who gets elected in the forthcoming mid term elections in USA on November 4th 2014. The odds are in favor of Republican candidates securing victory in their respective constituencies and also in securing a house majority in the forthcoming mid term elections...

News & Blogs

2014-10-12 21:17 | Report Abuse

US manufacturing had and are already moving back to USA and requires better infrastructure facilities in USA. It is just a matter of time that current gloom, doom and market uncertainty will soon make way for renewed optimism as Tarullo, a voting member of the Fed's policymaking committee had already hinted of future possibilities in USA

Quote: "Right now the physical capital stock (of the country) is about as old as it has been in the post World War Two era ... That suggests an underinvestment" Unquote

It will be very interesting to see who gets elected in the forthcoming mid term elections in USA on November 4th 2014. The odds are in favor of Republican candidates securing victory in their respective constituencies and also in securing a house majority in the forthcoming mid term elections...

Stock

2014-10-12 21:13 | Report Abuse

US manufacturing had and are already moving back to USA and requires better infrastructure facilities. It is just a matter of time that current gloom, doom and market uncertainty will soon make way for renewed optimism as Tarullo, a voting member of the Fed's policymaking committee had already hinted of future possibilities in USA

Quote: "Right now the physical capital stock (of the country) is about as old as it has been in the post World War Two era ... That suggests an underinvestment" Unquote

It will be very interesting to see who gets elected in the forthcoming mid term elections in USA on November 4th 2014. The odds are in favor of Republican candidates securing victory in their respective constituencies and also in securing a house majority in the forthcoming mid term elections...

Stock

2014-10-12 20:42 | Report Abuse

What is the likelihood that USA and certain first world countries in Europe will invest to replace its decaying infrastructure?

Stock

2014-10-12 20:18 | Report Abuse

The unintended consequence of manipulating the crude oil price to punish Russia is that the profits of Major US Oil & Gas corporations will be negatively affected and if sustained over a long term basis, it will trigger mass layoffs in unprofitable fields. This manipulation of Crude oil price to punish Russia is untenable and may not be sustained as eventually economic discipline and market forces will take over.

The mid term USA elections is coming soon on November 4th, 2014 and it looks like Republicans candidates who are pro business have high chance of victory and will most likely secure the majority. If that happens President Obama will be a lame duck president for the remaining term in office and the manipulation of crude oil price may no longer be tenable.

Stock

2014-10-12 20:18 | Report Abuse

The drop in price of crude oil had spooked the market n created great uncertainty on the global stock markets. There is new evidence that the drop in crude oil prices is being manipulated to punish Russia. The key question to ask are
- will global consumption of energy decrease or increase in the future?
- can the supply of unconventional shale oil have a sustained significant impact on future crude oil supply ?
The global demand for energy produced from crude oil n gas will continue to grow as more n more emerging market countries in former Soviet republics, Asia n South America aspires for US n Western European lifestyle. This can only mean that the demand for energy will increase in the future. Major oilfields in the world r facing declining production n many have resorted to enhanced oil recovery to try to maintain production volume.
Unconventional shale oil n gas accounts for 2%-3% of world supply. The unconventional shale oil n gas has maximum production during the first year n thereafter the production tails off at an exponential rate where the maximum life of the shale field is 10 years. It may even be shorter.USA is now a gas exporter but how long can USA continue to export unconventional gas? The export may not be sustainable over a long time period as shale oil n gas production will be unreliable.

So the key question to ask is how long can the Price of crude oil remain at around USD 90 given that the people in the emerging economies in former Soviet republics, Asia, South America aspire for US n European lifestyle which consumes high energy on a per capita basis? As energy consumption grows in the future, the future demand for crude oil n gas may even exceed the future supply.

News & Blogs

2014-10-12 20:01 | Report Abuse

The unintended consequence of manipulating the crude oil price to punish Russia is that the profits of Major US Oil & Gas corporations will be negatively affected and if sustained over a long term basis, it will trigger mass layoffs in unprofitable fields. This manipulation of Crude oil price to punish Russia is untenable and may not be sustained as eventually economic discipline and market forces will take over.

The mid term USA elections is coming soon on November 4th, 2014 and it looks like Republicans candidates who are pro business have high chance of victory and will most likely secure the majority. If that happens President Obama will be a lame duck president for the remaining term in office and the manipulation of crude oil price may no longer be tenable.

News & Blogs

2014-10-12 19:58 | Report Abuse

The unintended consequence of manipulating the crude oil price to punish Russia is that the profits of Major US Oil & Gas corporations will be negatively affected and if sustained over a long term basis, it will trigger mass layoffs in unprofitable fields. This manipulation of Crude oil price to punish Russia is untenable and may not be sustained as eventually economic discipline and market forces will take over.

The mid term USA elections is coming soon on November 4th, 2014 and it looks like Republicans candidates who are pro business have high chance of victory and will most likely secure the majority. If that happens President Obama will be a lame duck president for the remaining term in office and the manipulation of crude oil price may no longer be tenable.

News & Blogs

2014-10-12 19:57 | Report Abuse

The unintended consequence of manipulating the crude oil price to punish Russia is that the profits of Major US Oil & Gas corporations will be negatively affected and if sustained over a long term basis, it will trigger mass layoffs in unprofitable fields. This manipulation of Crude oil price to punish Russia is untenable and may not be sustained as eventually economic discipline and market forces will take over.

The mid term USA elections is coming soon on November 4th, 2014 and it looks like Republicans candidates who are pro business have high chance of victory and will most likely secure the majority. If that happens President Obama will be a lame duck president for the remaining term in office and the manipulation of crude oil price may no longer be tenable.

News & Blogs

2014-10-12 18:54 | Report Abuse

The drop in price of crude oil had spooked the market n created great uncertainty on the global stock markets. There is new evidence that the drop in crude oil prices is being manipulated to punish Russia. The key question to ask are
- will global consumption of energy decrease or increase in the future?
- can the supply of unconventional shale oil have a sustained significant impact on future crude oil supply ?
The global demand for energy produced from crude oil n gas will continue to grow as more n more emerging market countries in former Soviet republics, Asia n South America aspires for US n Western European lifestyle. This can only mean that the demand for energy will increase in the future. Major oilfields in the world r facing declining production n many have resorted to enhanced oil recovery to try to maintain production volume.
Unconventional shale oil n gas accounts for 2%-3% of world supply. The unconventional shale oil n gas has maximum production during the first year n thereafter the production tails off at an exponential rate where the maximum life of the shale field is 10 years. It may even be shorter.USA is now a gas exporter but how long can USA continue to export unconventional gas? The export may not be sustainable over a long time period as shale oil n gas production will be unreliable.

So the key question to ask is how long can the Price of crude oil remain at around USD 90 given that the people in the emerging economies in former Soviet republics, Asia, South America aspire for US n European lifestyle which consumes high energy on a per capita basis? As energy consumption grows in the future, the future demand for crude oil n gas may even exceed the future supply.

News & Blogs

2014-10-12 18:53 | Report Abuse

The drop in price of crude oil had spooked the market n created great uncertainty on the global stock markets. There is new evidence that the drop in crude oil prices is being manipulated to punish Russia. The key question to ask are
- will global consumption of energy decrease or increase in the future?
- can the supply of unconventional shale oil have a sustained significant impact on future crude oil supply ?
The global demand for energy produced from crude oil n gas will continue to grow as more n more emerging market countries in former Soviet republics, Asia n South America aspires for US n Western European lifestyle. This can only mean that the demand for energy will increase in the future. Major oilfields in the world r facing declining production n many have resorted to enhanced oil recovery to try to maintain production volume.
Unconventional shale oil n gas accounts for 2%-3% of world supply. The unconventional shale oil n gas has maximum production during the first year n thereafter the production tails off at an exponential rate where the maximum life of the shale field is 10 years. It may even be shorter.USA is now a gas exporter but how long can USA continue to export unconventional gas? The export may not be sustainable over a long time period as shale oil n gas production will be unreliable.

So the key question to ask is how long can the Price of crude oil remain at around USD 90 given that the people in the emerging economies in former Soviet republics, Asia, South America aspire for US n European lifestyle which consumes high energy on a per capita basis? As energy consumption grows in the future, the future demand for crude oil n gas may even exceed the future supply.

News & Blogs

2014-10-12 18:52 | Report Abuse

The drop in price of crude oil had spooked the market n created great uncertainty on the global stock markets. There is new evidence that the drop in crude oil prices is being manipulated to punish Russia. The key question to ask are
- will global consumption of energy decrease or increase in the future?
- can the supply of unconventional shale oil have a sustained significant impact on future crude oil supply ?
The global demand for energy produced from crude oil n gas will continue to grow as more n more emerging market countries in former Soviet republics, Asia n South America aspires for US n Western European lifestyle. This can only mean that the demand for energy will increase in the future. Major oilfields in the world r facing declining production n many have resorted to enhanced oil recovery to try to maintain production volume.
Unconventional shale oil n gas accounts for 2%-3% of world supply. The unconventional shale oil n gas has maximum production during the first year n thereafter the production tails off at an exponential rate where the maximum life of the shale field is 10 years. It may even be shorter.USA is now a gas exporter but how long can USA continue to export unconventional gas? The export may not be sustainable over a long time period as shale oil n gas production will be unreliable.

So the key question to ask is how long can the Price of crude oil remain at around USD 90 given that the people in the emerging economies in former Soviet republics, Asia, South America aspire for US n European lifestyle which consumes high energy on a per capita basis? As energy consumption grows in the future, the future demand for crude oil n gas may even exceed the future supply.

News & Blogs

2014-10-12 18:50 | Report Abuse

The drop in price of crude oil had spooked the market n created great uncertainty on the global stock markets. There is new evidence that the drop in crude oil prices is being manipulated to punish Russia. The key question to ask are
- will global consumption of energy decrease or increase in the future?
- can the supply of unconventional shale oil have a sustained significant impact on future crude oil supply ?
The global demand for energy produced from crude oil n gas will continue to grow as more n more emerging market countries in former Soviet republics, Asia n South America aspires for US n Western European lifestyle. This can only mean that the demand for energy will increase in the future. Major oilfields in the world r facing declining production n many have resorted to enhanced oil recovery to try to maintain production volume.
Unconventional shale oil n gas accounts for 2%-3% of world supply. The unconventional shale oil n gas has maximum production during the first year n thereafter the production tails off at an exponential rate where the maximum life of the shale field is 10 years. It may even be shorter.USA is now a gas exporter but how long can USA continue to export unconventional gas? The export may not be sustainable over a long time period as shale oil n gas production will be unreliable.

So the key question to ask is how long can the Price of crude oil remain at around USD 90 given that the people in the emerging economies in former Soviet republics, Asia, South America aspire for US n European lifestyle which consumes high energy on a per capita basis? As energy consumption grows in the future, the future demand for crude oil n gas may even exceed the future supply.

Stock

2014-10-12 16:01 | Report Abuse

nta drops--> price sure drop
nta stagnant--> price may drop or stagnate
nta keep on increasing--> price will consolidate with slight upside bias during market weakness but will spurt UP when bullishness returns.

Stock

2014-10-12 15:46 | Report Abuse

Who knows BJCORP business better? YOU OR BJCORP Management???? Please be realistic with an objective analysis rather than be guided blindly by emotional thinking

A little misguided knowledge is indeed very dangerous info that blinds ones objectivity..

Stock

2014-10-12 15:40 | Report Abuse

nta drops--> price sure drop
nta stagnant--> price may drop or stagnate
nta keep on increasing--> price will consolidate during market weakness but spurt UP when bull returns.

Question: What will be BJCORP future reported NTA@30/4/2015?
- nta less than RM 1.30
- nat same as RM 1.30
- nta more than RM 1.30

BJCORP management is confident that nta@30/4/2015 will be more than RM 1.30. So do u think the share price will drop further or consolidate and thereafter move higher??

If u think nta will drop further and have zero confidence in BJCORP management , then SELL
if u think nta will increase further and agreed with BJCORP management view on nta, then BUY

Who knows BJCORP business better? YOU OR BJCORP Management???? Please be realistic with an objective analysis rather than be guided blindly by emotional thinking

News & Blogs

2014-10-12 15:19 | Report Abuse

ya...Beach boy like u using high hurdle rates to identify terrific G spot stocks...will be a terrific cum exhilarating experience during this trying times...wish u lotsa luck OK.

By the way, please count me in as well on your G spot stock search hahahahahaha

News & Blogs

2014-10-12 15:11 | Report Abuse

stockoperator, OK got u ...and I will riddle it just for u ...u just go for G spot stocks where it takes great immense investment skill using high hurdle rates to find and locate the sweet G spots and that really makes the difference between weak holders and losers from the WINNERS like u !!! hahahahahaha

News & Blogs

2014-10-12 14:58 | Report Abuse

jolie2,
1st: Foreign equity funds had already underweighted BURSA. Very few foreign funds in BURSA now and that implies that future upside could be fast when foreign funds return.
2nd: CPO had already dropped, maybe bottom at RM 1800 to RM2,000(depends on RM FX rate to USD). With abolishment of export duty, maybe India may commence buying CPO.
3rd: Developers will have to sell more affordable homes especially selling houses less than RM 500,000 to young Malaysian households that qualify latest Budget 2015 incentives from the Msian government. Serious long term Developers with cheap sizeable land bank will thrive till 31st December 2016
4th: Penny stocks ( include small caps and mid caps) had already corrected and may possibly correct further. Nevertheless there are still undervalued penny stocks.

Market Crash? That is being very mellow dramatic. A market correction had happened and may persist for a short while more and thereafter global markets will be sideways for a while until the bull re-emerges

News & Blogs

2014-10-12 14:40 | Report Abuse

stockoperator, OK I do understand your riddle now...so you claim that you are always UP no matter what the market is? In that case you performed much better than Leno. Is that true? Or No Le hahahahaha

News & Blogs

2014-10-12 14:27 | Report Abuse

stockoperator, You are very fond of riddling your way through and you like riddles, don't you ? hahahahaha...

Can you be more clear cut and more concise in your expression next time instead of persisting with your riddling thoughts hahahahaha

Stock

2014-10-12 14:17 | Report Abuse

The Budget 2015 is positive for property sector due to:
- The Youth Housing Scheme program for the first house not exceeding RM500,000 for married youths aged between 25 and 40 years and with household income not exceeding RM10,000 where the government will provide a RM200 monthly financial assistance to borrowers for the first two years
-50 per cent stamp duty exemption on transfer documents and loan agreements for properties worth up to RM500,000 until 31st December 2016
-10 per cent loan guarantee so that they could obtain 100 per cent financing.
-Borrowers can withdraw from their EPF Account 2 to top up their monthly installment.

MKH will be a prime beneficiary of the Government's latest "Youth Housing Scheme" from now till 31st December 2016 as its land bank is located in a very attractive & fast appreciating location with 2 MRT stations to KL. Can expect good property sales up to 31st December 2016 besides increasing CPO production till 2016 as well.

At this price range MKH is a buying opportunity

Stock

2014-10-12 10:03 | Report Abuse

If you continue subscribe to this mindset and do nothing about the mindset that you subscribe to then it shall be so as you had already accepted and decided that that is so and there shall be no change.

Stock

2014-10-12 09:58 | Report Abuse

Does Malaysia really lack talented , competent and younger people who are just as capable or if not more capable than Khalid in finalizing the water deal? Under Khalid the water deal had dragged on for years where the rakyat were pawned and used as pawns and is this the example of leadership that the nation want is resolving a critical resource issue that affects the daily living, livelihood and growth of industries in Selangor and GDP of Malaysia?

Does Malaysia really lack such younger people with talents or is this just a subjective perception to the beholder only? Wouldn't you agree that it is high time that more and more younger people assumes more responsibilities and leadership roles for the betterment of the State and Country?

Stock

2014-10-12 09:49 | Report Abuse

Does Malaysia really lack talented , competent and younger people who are just as capable or if not more capable than Khalid in finalizing the water deal? Does Malaysia really lack such younger people with talents or is this just a subjective perception to the beholder only?

Stock

2014-10-10 22:50 | Report Abuse

nordimohd, Big Caps has limitations and uptrend is slow. Mid caps and small caps had corrected significantly and those with good fundamentals will move up.

Stock

2014-10-10 22:37 | Report Abuse

Buy and hold BIMB-WA for much higher % appreciation of your invested capital relative to mother share.

Stock

2014-10-10 22:22 | Report Abuse

nordimohd,
There will be a mid term election in USA on Nov 4, 2014.

The Dow in 64 Octobers since 1950 had been up 38 times(59%) and down 26 times(41%)and October month in USA is a "BEAR KILLER". This year being mid term election year October is particularly MORE BULLISH SINCE 1950. In the past 16 mid term elections in USA, the DJI rose 3.4% versus its 64 year average of 0.51% and The S&P rose 3.4% versus its 64 year average of 0.8%.

So based on past statistically significant evidence , October is an advantageous time to BUY ON WEAKNESS as the BEAR WILL BE KILLED IN OCTOBER 2014 and IT WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A BULL MARKET!

Stock

2014-10-10 22:19 | Report Abuse

There will be a mid term election in USA on Nov 4, 2014.

The Dow in 64 Octobers since 1950 had been up 38 times(59%) and down 26 times(41%)and October month in USA is a "BEAR KILLER". This year being mid term election year October is particularly MORE BULLISH SINCE 1950. In the past 16 mid term elections in USA, the DJI rose 3.4% versus its 64 year average of 0.51% and The S&P rose 3.4% versus its 64 year average of 0.8%.

So based on past statistically significant evidence , October is an advantageous time to BUY ON WEAKNESS as the BEAR WILL BE KILLED IN OCTOBER 2014 and IT WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A BULL MARKET!

Stock

2014-10-10 21:54 | Report Abuse

Joeylee, FA for KPS will improve further with time and this will impact on future TA readings. I rely on TA mainly on trend direction, support levels and resistance levels. I concur with hng33 views on KPS fundamentals and its future fundamentals will improve considerably. In view of this KPS improving FA will determine future TA price direction. KPS will consolidate for a while but with improving FA, the Price trend will be UP.

Stock

2014-10-10 21:43 | Report Abuse

nordimohd, Thanks for your kind words. I hope the article will give one a fresh macro perspective onto future potential funds flow

News & Blogs

2014-10-10 14:05 | Report Abuse

A glut of European savings and a lack of local investing opportunities could be set to keep a lid on U.S. borrowing costs and to drive global markets for years to come, say strategist Saravelos at Deutsche Bank. It is Europe’s huge savings glut – what we call euroglut – that will drive global trends for the foreseeable future.

At around $400 billion each year, Europe’s current account surplus is bigger than China’s in the 2000s. If sustained, it would be the largest surplus ever generated in the history of global financial markets.

This matters. Europe is the new China, and via large demand for foreign assets, it will play a dominant role in driving global asset price trends for the remainder of this decade. Globally, Europeans — among the world’s biggest savers — will drive capital flow trends for the rest of the decade, Saravelos predicts, making Europe the largest capital exporter in the 21st century.He sees the European Central Bank embarking on an aggressive round of asset purchases, which will push down real yields and create a domestic “asset shortage.”

That will prompt European investors to go abroad in the hunt for yield.

How would markets react? This is how Saravelos thinks it could play out:

The outflows will help drive the euro ever lower, eventually dropping below parity with the U.S. dollar, Saravelos says. He forecasts the euro to fetch just 95 cents by the end of 2017.

Yield curves will be very flat, with U.S. fixed income a “primary beneficiary” of European demand. In fact, if there is enough demand for long-dated instruments, the 10-year U.S. yield could easily trade below terminal Fed funds, a phenomenon that occurred in the 2000s amid the so-called bond conundrum and might become more likely now thanks to ever larger current-account surpluses, he says.

In the long run, this should also be good news for emerging markets as the flows make it more likely that marginal demand for emerging market assets goes up rather than down, he says.

Stock

2014-10-10 14:05 | Report Abuse

A glut of European savings and a lack of local investing opportunities could be set to keep a lid on U.S. borrowing costs and to drive global markets for years to come, say strategist Saravelos at Deutsche Bank. It is Europe’s huge savings glut – what we call euroglut – that will drive global trends for the foreseeable future.

At around $400 billion each year, Europe’s current account surplus is bigger than China’s in the 2000s. If sustained, it would be the largest surplus ever generated in the history of global financial markets.

This matters. Europe is the new China, and via large demand for foreign assets, it will play a dominant role in driving global asset price trends for the remainder of this decade. Globally, Europeans — among the world’s biggest savers — will drive capital flow trends for the rest of the decade, Saravelos predicts, making Europe the largest capital exporter in the 21st century.He sees the European Central Bank embarking on an aggressive round of asset purchases, which will push down real yields and create a domestic “asset shortage.”

That will prompt European investors to go abroad in the hunt for yield.

How would markets react? This is how Saravelos thinks it could play out:

The outflows will help drive the euro ever lower, eventually dropping below parity with the U.S. dollar, Saravelos says. He forecasts the euro to fetch just 95 cents by the end of 2017.

Yield curves will be very flat, with U.S. fixed income a “primary beneficiary” of European demand. In fact, if there is enough demand for long-dated instruments, the 10-year U.S. yield could easily trade below terminal Fed funds, a phenomenon that occurred in the 2000s amid the so-called bond conundrum and might become more likely now thanks to ever larger current-account surpluses, he says.

In the long run, this should also be good news for emerging markets as the flows make it more likely that marginal demand for emerging market assets goes up rather than down, he says.

Stock

2014-10-10 14:04 | Report Abuse

A glut of European savings and a lack of local investing opportunities could be set to keep a lid on U.S. borrowing costs and to drive global markets for years to come, say strategist Saravelos at Deutsche Bank. It is Europe’s huge savings glut – what we call euroglut – that will drive global trends for the foreseeable future.

At around $400 billion each year, Europe’s current account surplus is bigger than China’s in the 2000s. If sustained, it would be the largest surplus ever generated in the history of global financial markets.

This matters. Europe is the new China, and via large demand for foreign assets, it will play a dominant role in driving global asset price trends for the remainder of this decade. Globally, Europeans — among the world’s biggest savers — will drive capital flow trends for the rest of the decade, Saravelos predicts, making Europe the largest capital exporter in the 21st century.He sees the European Central Bank embarking on an aggressive round of asset purchases, which will push down real yields and create a domestic “asset shortage.”

That will prompt European investors to go abroad in the hunt for yield.

How would markets react? This is how Saravelos thinks it could play out:

The outflows will help drive the euro ever lower, eventually dropping below parity with the U.S. dollar, Saravelos says. He forecasts the euro to fetch just 95 cents by the end of 2017.

Yield curves will be very flat, with U.S. fixed income a “primary beneficiary” of European demand. In fact, if there is enough demand for long-dated instruments, the 10-year U.S. yield could easily trade below terminal Fed funds, a phenomenon that occurred in the 2000s amid the so-called bond conundrum and might become more likely now thanks to ever larger current-account surpluses, he says.

In the long run, this should also be good news for emerging markets as the flows make it more likely that marginal demand for emerging market assets goes up rather than down, he says.

Stock

2014-10-09 21:03 | Report Abuse

U think u can outsmart and outfox VT by going after fast money meh? If u think u can, better don't be too overconfident as over time u may win few battles but end up losing the war and by that time u will regret your decision.