money888 sorry to interrupt, yes, that's a conservative assumption.

Wednesday till Friday confirmed cases worldwide will likely tops 400,000.

Good we crossed RM10 with ease.

The charging will last much longer than expected. If you really know COVID, not cincai geng, one breath can make people sick for few days or die.

winwininvest, hza123, get a room! lol

Cannot lah. Now MCO, operation and harvesting very difficult.

You can buy CPO futures though. CPO cost increases, output reduces, good push for CPO price.

有道理，謝謝！

eddie, yup.

Tomorrow will go up another ringgit anyway.

agjl, really? OMG.

Today down a bit due to news of higher compensation of TG, Supermax should also need to pay more. However, Supermax should be able to handle easily.

Market really weak. Both physical market and stock market. Where else to put your money? Glove is still the safest investment.

Now vaccines come even later, the ultra high ASP can be sustain through two to four years.

Launch a satellite.

All time high today.

Ntpboon, 對，看到馬尾當你贏。

漲一塊，漲一塊。

zzz

Yeah, break rm11.07 pretty soon and full speed ahead.

Physical market is quiet, only place to invest safely is glove.

Glove will perform superbly when general market is not that good.

U.S. Blocks Palm Oil Imports From One of the Top Producers
By Elizabeth Elkin
September 30, 2020, 11:53 PM GMT+8 Updated on October 1, 2020, 1:12 AM GMT+8

Customs agency will detain palm oil made by Malaysia’s FGV
Order comes as the company faces forced-labor allegations


The U.S. has blocked imports of palm oil and palm oil products from Malaysia’s FGV Holdings Bhd., one of the world’s largest producers.

Shipments from the company and its subsidiaries will be held back at all ports of entry effective Wednesday, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection said in a statement. The order is based on what American authorities say is information that “reasonably indicates” the use of forced labor.

The move is the latest blow to the palm oil industry after the spread of the coronavirus shuttered restaurants, curbing demand for cooking oil. That comes after a spat between Malaysia and India hurt trade and companies grappled with smaller supplies.

The order is the result of a yearlong investigation that revealed labor abuse of vulnerability, deception, restriction of movement, isolation, intimidation and physical and sexual violence, according to the customs statement. Malaysia is the second-biggest shipper of palm oil to the U.S.

In a Sept. 26 statement, FGV said it’s fully committed to respecting human rights and upholding labor standards.

The global palm oil deficit is only likely to amplify after 2025 due to inadequate replanting in recent years and biodiesel mandates in Malaysia and Indonesia, according to Rabobank research.

In 2019, $441 million worth of tropical oils were imported to the U.S. from Malaysia, much of that being refined palm oil, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. Through the first seven months of 2020, the volume of such shipments was down 15%.

FYI

OTB is a self proclaimed stock guru whom won the stock pick competition long time ago. He had bad results in recent years though. His job is a remisier. Something like that.

Sometimes he is right and sometimes terribly wrong.

Well, first, Joe doesn't look like Alzheimer, of course Joe is not smart. Second, of course Trump is annoying and arrogant. Third, Trump still much more capable than Joe. Forth, clearly Hunter is corrupted. Fifth, I think Trump is wrong on carbon emission cut. Sixth, Trump is a bit over exaggerated on postal vote, after all only very few thrown away votes found, we have much more discarded votes found at river, beaches, etc at Malaysia.

Well written. Very professional.

跟當年崇禎一樣，抽簽！呵呵

Choivo, I reread the whole passage. Wonderful job, congratulations!

Herosan, its 40 cents or RM0.40 eps.

死雞撐飯蓋又能頂得多久。風水輪流轉，水門案又將被提起。不成功，便成仁！

Nice one! But I couldn't quite get it until I red the other article by JomnJerry.

If icon8888 still sees this, thanks to you.

Look very nice to me.

Bank account got too much money, the safe also exploded. Need to early dividend to reduce pressure. Keke

D-, poor nicole.

Finally someone did their homework properly. Well done, CS.

Due to structural step-up of demand plus shortage of raw material, turnover will be 25b and net profit will be 15b in FY22. More or less.

Now RM9.94 can beat Maybank liao

Just wait and see, patient!

In 8 more trading days TG will overtake Maybank as the largest cap company in Bursa, as promised by TS Lim.

Yes, we need more buyback!

On buyback. Share buyback is seen as strong signal by the company that its own share price is deeply undervalued.

If the company chooses to cancel the share bought back, then EPS will improve. In TopGlove's case, maybe the company will choose to distribute the bought back shares to the shareholders, as Supermax did.

Action speaks louder than words. TopGlove management's action to buy back is surely bold move to enhance shareholders' value. (Most companies in Bursa are either do not give a shxt on shareholders' value or slaughtering shareholders for their own benefit).

hahalol, I think sharing of news is ok.

40b new capacity of Intco will take some years to reach that. And by the time they did that, even Supermax also much bigger than that.

only 8b Nitrile currently, so that's quite far behind. Their main product is PVC glove? No competition.

I did DCF briefly and get like RM11.40.

Yaya, you hate Trump for getting a ticket.

我們做生意，很多時候做得好，就要投更多的錢進去，借更多的錢，花更多的時間，很多時候有苦自己知。

所以買點股票，買點債券，買點產業，做點慈善，有時對保持身心平衡有好處，是一件好事。共勉之！

老板文章寫得很好。

我覺得，當行業老大，要有容乃大。這一方面頂級就做得很好。在疫情時刻，帶領整個行業漲價，是老大風範。這是第一點。Harta起價得太慢，有點無厘頭。雖然我覺得Harta的效率頗高。而不起價錢就讓顧客或者各政府機構賺了，這並不符合經濟理論，也犧牲了股東利益。

我之前也是獨獨看好Harta， 但是Harta QnQ手套價才漲三十巴仙（還是最好的時刻）。人家頂級一個月手套就漲三十巴仙了。Harta的EPS才六，下一季可能有二十吧。頂級這一季EPS已經十五，還是分拆了，下一季可能就四十了。

疫情百年一遇，Harta可能因為不肯大起價而少賺了一百億，這一百億找誰來賠？而不起價根本就是破壞市場的供需關係。

一個不恰當的比諭，Harta就好像訓練精良的曹操軍隊，出征孫吳，在天時地利人和不利於自己的情況下赤壁大敗給周瑜。

*TOPG is of the view that glove ASPs, particularly for NBR gloves,are likely to remain high for up to a year. This is given the shortage of nitrile raw material, leading to difficulties in increasing production of NBR gloves for most glove makers,coupled with elevated global glove demand owing to Covid-19.

*At this juncture, we understand that ASPs for NBR gloves stand at US$70 per 1,000 pieces while latex gloves are at US$45 per 1,000 pieces. Owing to the strong global glove demand, it expects further ASP increases moving forward. For the NBR segment, it expects increases in ASP of 30% mom in Sep 20 and Oct 20, 15% mom in Nov 20 and an estimated 5% mom from Dec 20 onwards.

*For the NR segment, TOPG expects ASP hikes of 20% mom in Sep 20, 5% mom in Oct 20, followed by 10% mom in Nov 20.From Dec 20 onwards, TOPG expects NR ASPs to rise at a minimum of 5% mom until it starts to see a slowdown in demand for NR gloves. Based on this trajectory, it expects ASPs for NBR gloves to reach US$100 per 1,000 pieces in Nov 20. On the other hand, it expects ASPs for spot orders to potentially reach US$140-150 per 1,000 pieces by Nov 20.

*According to TOPG, it expects annual global glove demand to rise by 71% to 485bn pieces p.a.in 2022Ffrom 282bn in 2019. This will mainly be driven by higher demand,especially from countries with lower glove consumption per capita,as well as increased usage in non-medical sectors. With the robust growth rate, TOPG believes that the surge in global glove demand will outstrip new glove production supply from major manufacturers in Malaysia, Thailand and China

They likely to classify death to other categories such as heart attack or stroke.

Why are people die at the beginning stage and no more later? It is likely a form of hiding the truth. That's what happening in a one party dominance nation around the world.

Hold for as long as possible, until my suppliers sue me (which may never happen lah) or I found some other company which can earn more.

Disregard funny funny people talking, focus on the real deal.

Well, a fantastic set of results.

52% net profit margin before tax. (That's second best to selling drugs. )

Expenses increase 26% QoQ while facing material price increase and hire more people. Very very good performance indeed.

If you divide sales figures of this quarter by sales figure of march QR, then revenue has roughly +140%, which is much higher than +85% original projected by research house.

Look at the dividend, Q1, Q2, Q3 add up EPS 22. Dividend 10.
Q4 EPS 15.95, dividend 8.5. All slightly more than 50%. (Bad news for cw though, next year strong dividend stream will make cw holder harder to earn)

Assuming ASP increase Sep +20%, oct +20% and Nov +10%, average ASP will be +40.8%. Next QR will be Revenue 4.7b - expenses 1.7b = 3b more or less. EPS will be 30+ cents per share. FY21F eps will be RM1.2++.

Sounds good to me.

Congratulations to TopGlove Management and long term shareholders.

Eh, if i would do it.....maybe

NPV = Sum of net profits = NP 2020 + NP 2021 adjusted + NP 2022 adjusted + ....

to do it properly, maybe 3 stages better. Pandemic stage (ASP USD100++), normal grow stage (yearly 10% growth stage) and terminal stage (5% growth, beyond 2040 maybe)

NPV (roughly) = 2b (F20) + 8b(F21)/1.04 + 8b (F22)/(1.04)sq + 1.5b sqsq (F23-40)/(1.04)sqsqsq + terminal value.

NPV = 100.47b (roughly)

say rate of return is 4%.

我國華人要保持警覺，保持距離，免得引火上身。

Come come come, Tan Sri buyback again.....

(not that I wish Tan Sri to support share price, instead buyback will become dividend in the future)

csan wrote a good passage on harta. Its a bit unexcited to wait 2 years for a 2 baggers though (at this moment).

I think a good message from his article is increasing cost will weigh on profit. However, increasing cost will also 1. restrict competition from smaller players/newcomer, 2. further increase ASP due to scarcity of good quality gloves.

The glove runs now seems much longer than previously expected. I think if the pandemic peaked near June 2021, then maybe the glove runs may last till 2025 +-.

chopstick, action is more important than words.

Bornfree, its 2040. Must memorize, don't cincai. Keke

Let's work out the numbers:

Boss did say need to grow 30 times. Let's say this FY revenue 6b (I know in fact it will be higher), x30 is 180b by 2040.

180b is about USD45b which is not enough to be fortune 500 companies.

TG need USD60b revenue at least to be qualified.

In fact to grow 30 times in 20 years is not easy, unless meteor brings in more pandemic more often. (FYI, CCP blames US, Vietnam, Italy, Spain etc brought in the virus, the latest being meteor)

Can't wait until market opens.

Gogogo!!!

之前賣完了晒冷手套股，現在趕在業績出來前買回來。

哪位大神預估了業績？歡迎分享。

我幾個月前算的是EPS=2，懶得再算。

如果再有更多的錢，考慮買回母公司Ecoworld。

祝大家好運。

KY made mistake in his calculation again. Before and after right issue EPS must be diluted mah.

Anyway, next QR we shall see EPS RM0.50. Per annum is RM2.00. That's make Supermax RM20-40.

The Maybank report is at the (most) conservative side.

1. PE 9 times on 21E. That's the lowest you could give to the largest company in an industry. The range is anything between 9-30 times.

2. Estimated Net Profit 1b coming QR. The range is anything between 1b to 1.5b.

3. 11.2b 21E NP. Like!! Peaked at Q2 21, that's as far as we can see it now. Who knows about the future?

Once TG overtake Maybank as the largest cap., maybe Maybank can take it easy.

Now no.2 market cap. RM10.10 to beat Maybank. Hope Maybank rises, keke.

Look at the bright side, now is a practical drill to avoid zombie virus.

Happy to be part of the coming Malaysian 1st.

Soon, we will surpass Singapore in many ways. Nowadays, maybe a lot of people see the political arena as chaotic, but in fact it is democracy in action.