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Dear uptrending,
RM 248 million is net profit.
Thank you.

According to statistic, 90% of investors lost money in stock market.
10% of investors made money in stock market.

It is understood that most of investors will talk bad about Jaks without verify FA of Jaks.
I expect may be 10% of people really put in effort to check the FA of Jaks.

Do your homework before you buy this stock.
Thank you.

Posted by Flintstones > Mar 5, 2020 8:03 PM | Report Abuse

Same players from heng yuan la. It is the same OTB + probability gang. Just replace stockraider with DK, you got the same gambling party

Posted by Flintstones > Mar 5, 2020 8:07 PM | Report Abuse

Not to say they wont make money. They might. People who wanna chase must discount the target price given by sifu by 50%. Remember, stockraider hengyuan TP RM 50
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Ans :
I recommend Hengyuan at 5.95 and the last one at 8.00.
I told all readers here I had sold all at 17.50.
All readers followed me are laughing all the way to the bank.
All records were still available in I3, you can check and verify them.

Please get your records right.
Please note that I have very good memory.

I recommend stock based on TA and FA, I am very sure FA of Jaks is very good.
You can verify my statement and check the FA.
I am not a gambler, I am an investor and I know what is my probability to win.
Thank you.

Net profit is RM 206 million.
EPS = 0.316
Target price is 3.16 at PER=10.
Thank you.

Hope this Miss Universe will win the title in 2021.
Thank you.

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Thank you i3lurker.

i3lurker,

I stop and walk away.
Thank you for your good advice.

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According to statistic, 90% of investors lost money in stock market.
10% of investors made money in stock market.
It is understood that more people will talk bad about most of the stocks.

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http://www.cnr.cn/gd/gdkx/20191206/t20191206_524886717.shtml在第一个合同年，项目两台机组持续保持安全、稳定、高负荷运行，机组负荷率达95.80%，累计发电86.86亿千瓦时，累计售电81.94亿千瓦时，年利用小时数7238小时，提前17天完成了购电协议规定的可用小时数要求。In the first contract year, the two units of the project continued to maintain safe, stable, and high-load operation. The unit load rate reached 95.80%, the cumulative power generation was 8.686 billion kWh, the cumulative power sales were 8.194 billion kWh, and the annual utilization hours were 7,238 hours. The available hours specified in the power purchase agreement were completed 17 days in advance.

Dear huahtai98,

The cumulative power generation was 8.686 billion kWh, the cumulative power sales were 8.194 billion kWh.
You cannot take 8.686 billion kwh.
You should take 8.194 billion kwh as net sale because some of electricity is used in the power plant itself.

Dk66 had explained this issue before.

Thank you.

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Dear DK66,

I wish to show you the below calculation how I can get RM 248 million.

The cumulative power sales of Vinh Tan 1 were 8.194 billion kwh based on annual 7,238 utilization hours.

Since Hai Duong power plant is the same spec as Vinh Tan 1, I will assume same cumulative power sales were 8.194 billion kwh.
Profit margin is USD 0.024 (2.4 USD cents).
USD to RM conversion is 4.20.
Jaks owns 30% stake.

Calculation
= 8,194 * 0.024 * 4.20 * 30% = RM 248 million.
This profit is tax free.
EPS = 248/651 = 0.38
If PER = 10, the target price is 3.80 in 2021.
If PER = 15, the target price is 5.70 in 2021.

Thank you.

Dear huahtai98,

I follow your method to count the annual net profit of Hai Duong power plant in Vietnam.

The cumulative power sales of Vinh Tan 1 were 8.194 billion kwh based on annual 7,238 utilization hours.

Since Hai Duong power plant is the same spec as Vinh Tan 1, I will assume same cumulative power sales were 8.194 billion kwh.
Profit margin is USD 0.024 (2.4 USD cents).
USD to RM conversion is 4.20.
Jaks owns 30% stake.

Calculation
= 8,194 * 0.024 * 4.20 * 30% = RM 248 million.
This profit is tax free.
EPS = 248/651 = 0.38
If PER = 10, the target price is 3.80 in 2021.
If PER = 15, the target price is 5.70 in 2021.

Thank you.

Dear Huahtai98,

Please use 7,238 which is the right one. Stay with your USD 2.4 cents.
Thank you.

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Dear DK66,

I was told COD of unit 1 is May/June 2020. This timing is not changed yet as far as I was told.

Please help to verify COD of unit 1.
Thank you.

I will clarify COD of unit 1 during my meeting with the management of Jaks.
I was told COD of unit 1 is May/June 2020. This timing is not changed yet as far as I was told.
Thank you.

Posted by hng33 > Mar 3, 2020 11:29 AM | Report Abuse

DK66, please notify OTB to use your figure above to seek confirmation with Jaks CEO when they have meeting next week. Thanks

Posted by hng33 > Mar 3, 2020 11:46 AM | Report Abuse

OK, hope OTB can publish too estimation derive from Jaks CEO expectation profit on IPP after meeting.
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Ans:
I had read all DK66's reports until I can memorize them.
I carry all the notes to attend the meeting.
Please note that I am a detail person, no worry.
Thank you.

I was told they will meet all analysts individually.
I recommend to them 4 analysts as follows :-
1. Public Bank
2. Affin Bank
3. HL Bank
4. Kenanga.

I will follow up with their IR department after I meet them next week.
Thank you.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/nanyang_stock_expert/2020-03-03-story-h1484684230.jsp
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The share price of Jaks will challenge 3.25 to 3.35 resistance level.
All Jaks investors will be laughing all the way to the bank.
When ??

DK66, please read this technical chart.
Thank you.

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Posted by probability > Feb 29, 2020 4:44 PM | Report Abuse

To those who may have chance to attend invite by JAKS management soon...
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Ans :
My intention to attend analyst briefing is to find out what is the projected profit of Hai Duong power plant in 2021 when both unit 1 and 2 are running at full capacity.
Will 30% of Jaks stake is > RM 250 million per year ?
If the answer is yes, I just put all the money on Jaks like what DK66 had done.
Thank you.

Posted by probability > Feb 29, 2020 10:51 PM | Report Abuse

@OTB, on 7238 hrs, it would be something that is easily achievable as proven by Vinh Tan 1. My query to the management would be, what was their 12% IRR based on - was it based on 6500 hrs operating hours?
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Ans :
In the planning stage, 6,500 hours is used.
7,238 hours is the actual one used in operation.
I hope I answer your question.
Thank you.

Posted by probability > Feb 8, 2020 10:59 PM | Report Abuse X

Just using a gap of 2 years between the cumulative cash out flow of US$ 1.87 Billion spent for the Power Plant and the first recurring future cash in flow from electricity Sales....estimated annual cash in flow would be RM 1.3 Billion to obtain an IRR of 12% .

The IRR of 12% is derived at an extremely conservative annual plant utilization rate of 6500 hrs.
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Ans :
I had checked with the management and confirmed the utilization rate is 7,238 hours.
Thank you.

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Posted by Tiger66 > Feb 28, 2020 4:19 PM | Report Abuse

On the 15 of March, another two weeks, the 1st unit 600 MW power station going for a test run and comissioning. It will be connecting to the national grid for the months of April and May 2020.
Annual production of electricity to estimated at 3.75 billions KWH for the 1st unit.
Revenue at 156 miliions a month with jaks portion of 47 millions ringgit. Additional EPS=26 cents.

Share price now at 50% discount. You can double your investment in 2-3 months.
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Dear Tiger66,
I work backward, net profit for unit 1 is 170 million per year.
The net profit for 2 units equal to 340 million a year.
My projection of RM 250 million can be easily achieved in 2021.
Please check and advise.
Thank you.

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qqq3 does not have any money, he depends on his wife to feed him.
He has no job for 20 years.
His investment in share is < 50k.
The present bearish market, may be his capital is lost completely.
Every time when KLSE is down, he will find way to provoke me.

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