Tun, please retire for Malaysia.

Please please, enough, let the next generation take care of themselves, please.

Vaccine, well that might be 18 months or more down the roads. So stay at home if one has the means to stay at home. This is perfectly fine, one less vehicle on the road, good for the environment too.

What happen if one does not have the means? Please put yourself in their shoes and starve for a few days and do not touch your saving; with a couple of kids screaming down the house because they are hungry, I think their thinking will change very quickly.

But again, why must one's fear dictate how the rest (of the nation) should operate?

Beside, you as an individual also have the choice not to go out if you deemed that it is too dangerous. But why must the rest (who is running out of cash / saving) follow you?

First and foremost, I am not an Azmin fan, appreciate if you will advice which part of his statement is factually wrong - the suing part, or the cooperation part?

While I can understand the fear of the unknown, I think most people understand, green, yellow/orange and red (zones). Also, SOP, I think most (business) people also understand the need for and implementation of SOP before opening for business.

As the long lines outside pawn shops indicate, we are all low on cash, so what next, you are going to donate? No, so what is the next best thing, government continue to give - money from where?

So please advice which aspect is factually not correct so that I can correct my view too.

Thank you so much.

[02/05, 14:03] Dr Jemilah Mahmood (Malaysia): My advice as follows:

1. MCOs are not to end COVID but flatten the curve. And we have. We flatten the curve to ensure health systems are protected and able to cope.
2. Our health systems can cope. More than enough ventilators etc. Utilisation capacity now only 30% and in fact KKM starting to give front liners leave. Most cases >80% are mild.
3. COVID will not end for next two years. There will be small spikes and must not panic but aggressive tracing and quarantine and treatment
4. When there is a spike in an area an enhance MCO very localised to the area can be implemented immediately.
5. Enforcement will be important to ensure compliance. Both from government but also self enforcement - individual, community, companies.
6. Pandemics can be ended only when whole of society participated and is empowered. If you see something say something. Report to the police etc.
7. Economic impact and mental health is important. We have to face the bitter challenges of MCO and COVID but only if we pull together in the same direction we can win this.
8. The new normal is a reality. Stay home as much as you can. Keep a safe distance and wear a mask.
9. We need to live with COVID. Just as we need to live with dengue. All the preventive measures and early detection and treatment.
10. A vaccine at earliest may be available next year. Herd immunity is questionable as data on antibodies is still showing low conversion rate. So travel is limited.
11. Don’t compare Malaysia with Hokkaido. When they opened up they didn’t protect borders. Malaysia is protecting her borders. This is critical and one of requisites of WHO. We have taken steps beyond what was done in Japan as we have learnt from their experience.
[02/05, 14:03] Dr Jemilah Mahmood (Malaysia): The report by Chinese experts who came said we are ready. According to WHO criteria we have met most of them
[02/05, 14:03] Dr Jemilah Mahmood (Malaysia): I get many questions if the MCO was eased a little too early. Below are my standard responses so you may want to share with your family and friends.

[02/05, 14:03] Dr Jemilah Mahmood (Malaysia): My advice as follows:

1. MCOs are not to end COVID but flatten the curve. And we have. We flatten the curve to ensure health systems are protected and able to cope.
2. Our health systems can cope. More than enough ventilators etc. Utilisation capacity now only 30% and in fact KKM starting to give front liners leave. Most cases >80% are mild.
3. COVID will not end for next two years. There will be small spikes and must not panic but aggressive tracing and quarantine and treatment
4. When there is a spike in an area an enhance MCO very localised to the area can be implemented immediately.
5. Enforcement will be important to ensure compliance. Both from government but also self enforcement - individual, community, companies.
6. Pandemics can be ended only when whole of society participated and is empowered. If you see something say something. Report to the police etc.
7. Economic impact and mental health is important. We have to face the bitter challenges of MCO and COVID but only if we pull together in the same direction we can win this.
8. The new normal is a reality. Stay home as much as you can. Keep a safe distance and wear a mask.
9. We need to live with COVID. Just as we need to live with dengue. All the preventive measures and early detection and treatment.
10. A vaccine at earliest may be available next year. Herd immunity is questionable as data on antibodies is still showing low conversion rate. So travel is limited.
11. Don’t compare Malaysia with Hokkaido. When they opened up they didn’t protect borders. Malaysia is protecting her borders. This is critical and one of requisites of WHO. We have taken steps beyond what was done in Japan as we have learnt from their experience.
[02/05, 14:03] Dr Jemilah Mahmood (Malaysia): The report by Chinese experts who came said we are ready. According to WHO criteria we have met most of them
[02/05, 14:03] Dr Jemilah Mahmood (Malaysia): I get many questions if the MCO was eased a little too early. Below are my standard responses so you may want to share with your family and friends.

[02/05, 14:03] Dr Jemilah Mahmood (Malaysia): My advice as follows:

1. MCOs are not to end COVID but flatten the curve. And we have. We flatten the curve to ensure health systems are protected and able to cope.
2. Our health systems can cope. More than enough ventilators etc. Utilisation capacity now only 30% and in fact KKM starting to give front liners leave. Most cases >80% are mild.
3. COVID will not end for next two years. There will be small spikes and must not panic but aggressive tracing and quarantine and treatment
4. When there is a spike in an area an enhance MCO very localised to the area can be implemented immediately.
5. Enforcement will be important to ensure compliance. Both from government but also self enforcement - individual, community, companies.
6. Pandemics can be ended only when whole of society participated and is empowered. If you see something say something. Report to the police etc.
7. Economic impact and mental health is important. We have to face the bitter challenges of MCO and COVID but only if we pull together in the same direction we can win this.
8. The new normal is a reality. Stay home as much as you can. Keep a safe distance and wear a mask.
9. We need to live with COVID. Just as we need to live with dengue. All the preventive measures and early detection and treatment.
10. A vaccine at earliest may be available next year. Herd immunity is questionable as data on antibodies is still showing low conversion rate. So travel is limited.
11. Don’t compare Malaysia with Hokkaido. When they opened up they didn’t protect borders. Malaysia is protecting her borders. This is critical and one of requisites of WHO. We have taken steps beyond what was done in Japan as we have learnt from their experience.
[02/05, 14:03] Dr Jemilah Mahmood (Malaysia): The report by Chinese experts who came said we are ready. According to WHO criteria we have met most of them
[02/05, 14:03] Dr Jemilah Mahmood (Malaysia): I get many questions if the MCO was eased a little too early. Below are my standard responses so you may want to share with your family and friends.

Of course you are probably in a cruiser while a lot of Malaysian are in small boats and sampan. Some are not even in boats but swimming in this Covid 19 storm.

Are you (PBK) going to give/support their rentals/livelihood for until when????

This is a very shallow minded party populated by Tycoons.

I am humbled Philip. This is a thorough analysis of the milk industry in such a short time.

Am very happy for you and hope that this investment will be most fruitful to you.

Happy investing, stay safe especially with the impending relaxation, keep to at least 1.5m (in-fact 2m is better) physical distancing.

David, please let me clarify - I did not recommend, I just share the name with Philip since he inquired.

Nevertheless, many thanks for reading and especially for sharing your thoughts on the cow and goat milks.

Yes, the number of babies is reducing for the last 3 years to just over 15 millions. And yes competition is stiff. It is a threat indeed and thank you for the head-up, will need to monitor closely.

Once again, thanks for reading and commenting.

I support this, especially the green areas with physical distancing.

Philip, do invest in Feihe if your research/analysis dictate it to be.

I knew Ausnutria first before Feihe as it was only listed recently. But man, I only have so much fund.

In Hong Kong Exchange, companies are allowed to provide profit alert (either up or down). Yesterday, Ausnutria issued a (positive) profit alert that caused the share price to advance +15%.

Nonetheless thanks for sharing on Feihe.

Hi Choivo Capital - been a while since we last chat.

Management quickly appointed an independent review committee (IRC) (consisting of all independent directors) as well as an independent consultant (Deloitte Advisory (Hong Kong) Limited) reporting to the IRC (only) to carry out investigation on the allegations.

One can find the reports on the allegations https://doc.irasia.com/listco/hk/ausnutria/press/p191029.pdf.

Basically, there is no truth in the allegations made by Orca. Nonetheless, there are some improvement to be made that the company will do.

The quick response by management restored confident in the company. That is what a Chinese saying: 脚正不怕鞋歪 (an upright man is not afraid of gossip).

This quick response, nothing to hide attitude, to me is very important.

Hope that provided some answer - whatever it is you are looking for.

But do be careful, you might be participating in a morally reprehensible investment.

Stay safe.

i3lurker, I do not know whether to cry or laugh.

you said - "I dun buy on stock tips, definitely not from qqq3 or some other people who buy companies selling banned products"

Appreciate if you will illustrate more on why these products are banned (or rejected). Are you referring to infant formula milk (IFM) either from cow or goat or both that is banned in EU, UK & USA being sold in China. These products are formulated and blended with milk from the same sources in Netherlands (& Australia plus New Zealand) that a lot of other multinational companies procure their milk from.

The auditor, Ernst & Young i trust would not audit such a company knowingly importing banned products for sale. Also the many millions of Chinese (mother), that I don't think are so stupid after the 2008 melamine in milk incident to buy products that are banned in EU/UK/USA. And China's approving authorities allowing them to be sold is mind boggling.

Please, do point to the source(s) of information that led you to such conclusion. I would appreciate it very much as indeed I shared (construed as tips in your view) the company selling banned products (I and my family owned shares in the company).

You will be doing civic duty to correct my misguided morally reprehensible investment.

While I am in Malaysia, I believe I know among other things to surf the net and access information the world over just like you. Maybe I lack the assistance that you have, I could only access so many web-sites and I have yet to find any evidence that these products are banned in EU/UK/US. Not approved (yet) in US, that I know, as all IFM need to be approved by respective countries authorities on food before being allowed to be sold.

So laugh, the other interpretation to your statement is like a child crying over spilled milk (sorry, no pun intended - yes we are talking about a company selling milk here).

But, i3lurker, I am dead serious about the first part of my assertion and that is bordering on calling my integrity into question that I don't think you are doing. But if you are, please substantiate with facts, thank you very much. I will be the first to apologies to all readers that I knowingly mislead them if your facts are correct.

RWKL - you will need to do your own due diligent and also wait on i3lurker clarification on the banned products (true or false), you do not want to be morally bankrupt do you.

sslee - I am sorry you had such bad experience with the red chips - those were crooks IMHO. But that doesn't mean that this bunch in the milk company is not. However, their professional response to the assertion that their sells was manipulated recently by a hong kong specialist analyst firm that i3lurker pointed to (much) earlier is telling.

And as usual happy investing all.

Newton's third law is: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

Australia will learn this soon enough.

What does Australia benefit from parroting US view, gosh it is all the way on the other side of the world. Australia is much nearer to China then US ever will be. And the major export of coal and iron ore from Australia is to China.

Blind or what?

qqq33, the brilliance is in the decision making and FINALLY must take action - of course no action is also an action.

I fully agree that brilliance is seldom in the knowledge / knowing.

I fail many a time by not taking action.

qqq33 - what is the X-factors you talked about, appreciate if you will elaborate on this a bit .....

Thanks in advance.

Philip, thank you.

A brilliant investor I am not, lucky maybe.

It is Ausnutria (HKG: 1717) - listed in Hong Kong but predominantly sell milk (cow and goat) infant formula milks in China. The sources for the milk are Netherlands, Australia and New Zealand.

Happy investing.

Latuk Seri Rick Walker - US testing is highest in absolute number only. Iceland is the highest, about 135k per million population (this is a better indicator).

Yes, agree that many areas of Malaysia have gone without any new cases for days / weeks and hopefully, as the analysis by https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg, we will see the end of this around May 5th.

Thanks, David for the headup on new kits coming soon.

David, thank you for your explanation on testing. Fair, the more testing to identify carrier / mild cases and ISOLATING them would led to reduce local transmission. And thanks for the link.

i3lurker, if I am not mistaken, test in Australia is free. But of course, one can still go to private clinic for paid test.

probability - yes, these might be the other reasons for the slow reduction in new cases after such long lock-down.

My view is, Malaysians appear not wanting to come forward, maybe due to fear of authority (for whatever reason), for testing. This is especially those that have come in contact with known cases.

The low testing maybe due to inability to procure test-kits. Also, the testing criteria is strictly narrow to conserve test kits or time for healthcare workers, so they can concentrate on caring.

When the Facts Change, I Change My Mind. What Do You Do, Sir? - John Maynard Keynes

Thank you all for reading.

qqq33 said: "How much does fund managers pay for predictability, good management, corporate governance? A lot...........and a lot more than u can imagine.........."

Now this probably answered why PE is so high for QL.


i3lurker & Sslee - thank you for the discussion on CP.


valuelurker - yes that is also a strategy.

Philip - many thanks also for the many comments on how well QL is managing. However, while the price for eggs in Vietnam is higher than Malaysia now, you know it, now I know it, thanks to you, CP probably knows it too and a whole hosts of others. They all will be looking into expanding production to capture this higher margin market and before you know it (probably at most 3 years), price war ensure and margin will be low again.

This is not a competition (at least to me) on who has a better portfolio. I for one admit I do not have a portfolio as good as you. I am learning and what I learned from my analysis of QL is that it has (to me) reached a point of diminishing return on new investment. And for the life of me couldn't understand why someone would pay so much for it.

qqq33 said it succinctly that a lot of fund managers are willing to pay a lot for predictability, good management etc etc that you articulated so concisely.

So, it is important to understand what caused it to be so valuable - that is predictability, good management, good governance. And this is acceptable too.

To buy for growth, well NO (for me at least) and that is why i divested.

Mr Philip, it is OK to agree to disagree.

Happy investing everyone, stay home and stay safe.

Here is more data on what some doctors in US were already worried: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6879-2020-covid-19-red-dawn-rising/66f590d5cd41e11bea0f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

The thread of the email started on 28 Jan 2020. I am sure there already exchange of views on the seriousness of the pandemic much earlier.

And on 10 Jan 2020, the COVID 19 genome sequence was made publicly available by China.

So the doctors sleeping.....

Typical Western, especially US to blame others for all their failings and only they can be right, what a lot of craps....

What exactly is earlier? There were a lot of information coming out of China, Italy, Spain and France. Don't tell me they only looked at US data and information and do not trust the rest of the world because their healthcare system is not as good as US - like the test they cock-up. Pleassseddd.

I do not think it is lackadaisical attitude, more like willful blindness.

I still fail to see how testing will reduce new cases?

By the way, the numbers quoted are from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ that got all their data from the respective countries health department (or whatever authority that releases the information).

Mr Long numbers, good to hear from you with your usual gusto.

Yes it has been one year 3 months since I wrote this article.

I have divested mine and our family holding out of QL since then and invested outside of Malaysia (Not Berkshire).

The counter (consumer sphere) has provided me with about +17% annualized, even under Covid 19 condition. Lucky, I presumed despite the analysis carried out.

But of course, QL is a good counter (within Malaysia context) for years to come.

Like you, I have also invested overseas as the companies have that much more potential. This is because the market the companies is in is that much more bigger (the world vs Malaysia only).

But there is one area I have not mastered like you, low number of counters. I aim to reduce my portfolio to below ten if possible within 12 months.

Nevertheless, thank you for all the learning and happy investing.

Stay safe and physical (not social) distancing and all.

Australia is carrying out 17,020 tests per 1m population compared with 3,344 tests per 1m.

Testing per-se does not indicate why Australia outcome (reduced cases) are better than Malaysia.

These are therapeutic - that is to cure once you had the disease. Traditional Chinese Medicine is also known to be therapeutic.

Vaccine on the other hand prevent (stop) one that is vaccinated from getting the disease.

"The U.S. was also slow to recognize the seriousness of this new coronavirus, which caught the entire country unprepared."

That is all, just accept it, there is no perfect this or that.

The fact that US & a host of Western countries think that this is a joke at the beginning or rather it cannot spread to them cannot be pinned on China for being slow to recognized the Covid 19 issues or share information.

Just accept it and move on WEST.

no balls

Very well said DG.

So what is the difference between US and Malaysia.

Datuk, how to die standing? But, I am not so sure. Nonetheless, yes, all four (Tun, DS Anwar, LGE & LKS) should all retire and resign to take responsibility and let the new (& hopefully younger) generation take over steering the path that Malaysia should and will take over the coming years.

I think the use of word like "full" this and that in China is very misleading.

While I do not deny that China is the first country affected and recovered from CV19, if one take care to notice, the rest of the world is still gripping with it. That is, Europe, rest of Asia and US, are all markets of China. I do not think China domestic market will take up all the slack from the much reduced demand.

So, please be realistic when writing, really appreciate it very much.

Aiyo, please retire and keep your mouth shut except on coronavirus. PLEASE!!!!!

Very interesting, but I think the financial institutes are not that unkind, call the loan now and where is Yinson going to get the cash? Why the banks in Malaysia gave 6 months moratorium? I think that would be the same rational whereby the financial institutions that loan what ever billions to Yinson will not call on the loan.

But if they do, then the officers, yes there will be more than one person involved, must be living in some caves in the Himalaya.

Is this at all possible??

The Western press always insinuate that this is prevailing in China, now ITALY, a western country????

Ridiculous really!!!

I think there is an "abundance" of overreaction to COVID-19.

It is us human that do not want to follow order on self-quarantine that is causing the widespread infection.

So since we cannot stay still, get rid of the MCO, lets get herd immunity and get on with life. Then the stimulus may work. Allocate fund for new cemeteries, build new hospitals, employ more people as health care provider, etc, etc to fight COVID-19 and any new virus that come along, but do not close down the country / world.

We do not close car manufacturing plants for all the road deaths???? (Brazil President said this)

How to spend when almost all countries in the world is in lockdown. How to spend? What to stimulate when everyone has to stay at home??

What is the point really?

Injecting money, stimulate this and that but MCO - so how??

Latest, Australia is quarantine, quarantine! That is forced isolation for all returning Australian. And the police will enforce this!!

Where is the human right / individual right here???

That is what happening in the "democratic" western countries. Impinging on human rights. Australia also now put up oppressive laws, Tasmania kick out all visitors, soon US of A, the bastion of freedom, will also do like wise.

Ask citizen to keep social distancing, but don't want to listen, HOW?

Why not China? Lost face?

My take is, US will be the new epicenter, surpassing Italy. In Italy, already letting the old to die, simply not enough ventilator to go round. The same will be happening in US especially in the poorer part.

This is so unAmerican, trying to blame everyone except themselves for their inept preparedness.

YES, THAT IS THE WAY TUN, PLEASE RETIRE !!!!

SHAME TO THE MALAYSIAN YOUTH (ME INCLUDED), ALLOWING AN OLD MAN TO DICTATE OUR LIFE.

ENOUGH, PLEASE RETIRE !!!!!!!

ENOUGH TUN, PLEASE STOP AND RETIRE !!!!!!

i SECOND YOU DATUK SERI RICK - SICK OF TUN

ENOUGH TUN, PLEASE RETIRE !!!!