As tomorrow is the last day of the financial year of Hibiscus, the price one pay now will be for FY2019. Production for the FY2019 will be much higher than FY2018. And profit will be up by at least 100%. And PER will be in the low single figure (~ 5). Once the Mr. Market realize, the share price should appreciate much much ........

Thank you JayC. But I still do not understand this tax liability. Nevertheless, I know that Q4, is going to be excellent. And next financial year 2019 will be superb because of higher oil price and production. Main risk is a sudden depression.

This herd instinct is very hard to break. Hibis is in a sweet spot - "more" (read North Sabah) product that the world just cannot do without and willing to pay more too.

If one has sufficient fund to continue to pickup as it go lower while those that do not have, to sit at the sideline and watch the show.

Once this pessimism go away, the rebound should be sharp, after all, Q4 should equal Q1+Q2+Q3.

Have a good week ahead.

Of Dr Ken P

Appreciate someone please explain why the selling and buying

ICON8888, your introduction, it should be FY2018 and not FY2019.

As shown by the 3 analysts, FY2019 would be very good as it will be a full year with both Anasuria and North Sabah productions together, rather, than now 9 months only Anasuria plus final 4th quarter 2018 that will include both Anasuria and North Sabah.

So childish this LGE - shame on you. Scare the shit out of everyone with your theatrical. Happy now? Foreign fund has liquidated (net) about RM 4 billion since May 14. Looks like more with the constant flip-flopping, HSR cancelled now postponed, new national car project, Battersea, etc. Borrowing yen, this will increase our foreign borrowing, whatever for?

Please, SAVE MALAYSIA stop posting articles, enough already. Project done, move on.

I find the comments put forth here is most disturbing at best and totally nonsensical at the worst, save for @Ricky Yeo. Reaction in the market is like everything will end immediately, like, there is no tomorrow.

There got to be rule of law, that is, contracts awarded must be honored, especially those that had been awarded years ago. While those just awarded (like within last 6 months) could be cancelled with minimal loss to both parties (contractor as well as government). If there are corrupt practices, then, by all mean bring the evidence to MACC, charge them in court, not shout out here like they are guilty (especially just by association). Guilty until proven otherwise - is this the way forward??? Is this the new Malaysia we want? Guilty by association, guilty until proven otherwise?

Of course going forward, more competition is always desirable.

Tamat - http://www.imi.gov.my/images/fail_kenyataan_media/2018/5_May/media-kdn..., that is what Home Minister Muhyiddin said. Now my limited knowledge of Bahasa, "TAMAT" means end. In a contractual sense, NOT terminated. Terminated brings up a sense of premature "ending", normally due to some fault of the contractor.

So this "storm" (should be in a tea cup) is not warranted and smack of malicious intent.

Beside, the program of rehiring was announced to be ended on 31/12/2017 (http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2017/08/18/no-further-extension-immigra...). So there appear to have been an extension till this 30/6/2018 (quietly as there were no announcement to BURSA of such an extension by MYEG). And I believe there were many employers requesting that it be extended.

However another contract was awarded (on 10/10/17) to MyEG to repatriate foreign worker that will also end 30/6/2018.

But do note in the announcement by Home Minister (31/5/18), this repatriation program (called 3+1) will continue till 30/8/18. So maybe MyEG may have the contract (to repatriate IFW) extended in days to come to 30/8/18.

Now all this (above) have nothing to do with MyEG concession contract that will only expire May 2020, and the renewal of (legal) FW permit annually will be (should be) business as usual.

With chest thumping and shouting at the top of the hill "rule of law" by PH followers and elders, then the concession contract should be maintain till May 2020 at the least.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Tamat - http://www.imi.gov.my/images/fail_kenyataan_media/2018/5_May/media-kdn-rehiring-31May.pdf, that is what Home Minister Muhyiddin said. Now my limited knowledge of Bahasa, "TAMAT" means end. In a contractual sense, NOT terminated. Terminated brings up a sense of premature "ending", normally due to some fault of the contractor.

So this "storm" (should be in a tea cup) is not warranted and smack of malicious intent.

Beside as highlighted by @Primeinvestor, the program of rehiring was announced to be ended on 31/12/2017 (http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2017/08/18/no-further-extension-immigrations-31-programme-after-dec-31). So there appear to have been an extension till this 30/6/2018 (quietly as there were no announcement to BURSA of such an extension by MYEG). And I believe there were many employers requesting that it be extended.

However another contract was awarded (on 10/10/17) to MyEG to repatriate foreign worker that will also end 30/6/2018.

But do note in the announcement by Home Minister (31/5/18), this repatriation program (called 3+1) will continue till 30/8/18. So maybe MyEG may have the contract (to repatriate IFW) extended in days to come to 30/8/18.

Now all this (above) have nothing to do with MyEG concession contract that will only expire May 2020, and the renewal of (legal) FW permit annually will be (should be) business as usual.

With chest thumping and shouting at the top of the hill "rule of law" by PH followers and elders, then the concession contract should be maintain till May 2020 at the least.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Of course there might be some more accounting surprises; impairment of this and that, consultant fees, deposit for drilling rig (to drill UK side-track), write back maybe, etc; so your guess is as good as mine as to what eps it will be.

Going forward, Q4 2018 revenue would most likely topped the last 3 quarters put together; (2800uk+5500NSabah)*90 days=747,000 barrels; X USD 72/barrel = USD 53.8 million x 3.8 = RM 204.4 million. Say profit margin is 28% will give profit of RM 57.2 million = 4 sens/share. This should give full year of about 10.7 sens/share. The rest, PER etc only the market decide.Have a good week ahead.

Yes instead of HSR, MRT / LRT / Trams / Buses for all Malaysia!! Everyone benefit!!

I find your argument on road safety just to build HSR too simplistic and most absurd.

While the debt to GDP ratio is 50%, 80% or 200% is MOOT (depend on definition - 2 accountants already do not agree much less non-accountants arguing over this); again comparing countries will be meaningless if they are all not measured to the same (international) basis.

The purpose of having HSR or not should be base on benefit to the country, i.e. Malaysia; not only road safety but also economic and societal.

From the economic angle - my view is it benefit Singapore ONLY. In Malaysia only the rich, to increase the choices they have to go spend money in Singapore. What is there in KL that Singaporean cannot get in Singapore (and better some more).

The societal - through the (major to rural) roads, and Malaysian communities are much more disperse compared with Singapore that is a City state. The improvement of public transportation to the major and rural communities would be much more beneficial than HSR for sure. It will increase the mobility of the community between the urban / rural divide, a movement that will touch more people than HSR ever will.

Plus is own by Khazanah and EPF. Khazanah belongs to all Malaysian while EPF (indirectly) own by contributors that are mainly Malaysian.

Not all Malaysian use the tolled highway.

By removing toll (or lowered) without compensation, will be most unfair to the Malaysian (especially contributor to epf) that do not use the toll highway while they had contributed to the acquiring cost.

There are 32 millions Malaysian (latest data released not too long ago) and I believe at most half, 16 millions use the tolled highways. Is it fair to the remaining 16 millions? One can change the number as much as one likes, but you cannot escape the fact that there is a whole chunk of Malaysian given the short end of the deal.

Where is the justice to this?

And all of these highways are in the West coast where Malaysian have the highest income, can afford, user pay, so pay, please.

Have a nice weekend.

Khazanah belongs to all Malaysian while EPF (indirectly) own by contributors that are mainly Malaysian.

Not all Malaysian use the tolled highway.

By removing toll (or lowered) without compensation, will be most unfair to the Malaysian (especially contributor to epf) that do not use the toll highway while they had contributed to the acquiring cost.

There are 32 millions Malaysian (latest data released not too long ago) and I believe at most half, 16 millions use the tolled highways. Is it fair to the remaining 16 millions? One can change the number as much as one likes, but you cannot escape the fact that there is a whole chunk of Malaysian given the short end of the deal.

Where is the justice to this?

And all of these highways are in the West coast where Malaysian have the highest income, can afford, user pay, so pay, please.

Have a nice weekend.

To put thing in perspective, the e-government concession was won in an open-tender in 2000. That is, Tun M time (stepped down in 2003). There were 3 winners, MyEG, Konsortium Multimedia Swastas and mySpeed .com Sdn Bhd (this was taken over by MyEG in 2007).

At the end of the day, while can get contracts, must deliver and MYEG had and is still delivering.

It is pure business sense that MYEG make use of their strength / contacts within the government to secure more e-government delivery path-ways like foreign workers / maid work permit renewal, etc.

And I believe, Malaysian would want to continue to be able to interact with government agencies thru the internet rather than go to the offices and queue.

In fact there are already lots of competition in MYEG services like one can pay assessment (MYEG for DBKL only) directly thru banks, renew ones' driving licence thru Post Offices nationwide, buy insurance for your vehicle directly with any of the insurance companies and no need to use MYEG.

Everyone with an electronic devices like laptop, smartphones, etc knows that they sometime do not behave the way they were intended (software and hardware glitches). So, to revert all these services back to government that is notorious for poor maintenance, sooner or later all these services delivery quality will be left wanting. One can see idle passport-readers at immigration check-points. Also thru internet, there is hacking and security issues - where civil servants would be the last in the game to be profession (skill-set) in to fight these threat.

As MYEG delivers, why kill it just because they can perform? Just because they are close to the government of the day? So MYEG cannot be close to PH government? After all, all these e-government services requires close contact with implementing agencies to ensure system are running and on top, security of access and data protection as each of these agencies (JPJ, JPN, Immigration, etc) have hugh and sensitive data.

In summary;
- e-government is here to stay
- better to have private enterprise handle this; more efficient and effective and I believe at the end at lower cost compared with government agencies doing it themselves
- from an economy of scale, number of service providers would naturally be few and will result in a monopoly, duopoly or oligopoly.

E-government is only one aspect of MyEG. There is also e-wallet, foreign worker accommodation (basically a security issue), courier services, content provider and anything that could be "e". With the first mover advantage and network effect, MYEG will survive this and should grow from strength to strength.

Have a nice weekend.

@wow123, may I know what is the reason(s) MYEG should be taken to court and contract terminated? Please share.

OK, while I do not disagree to the setting up of a sovereign fund like the Norwegian's, to get dividend or gain (assuming no loss? from investment) to plug the lost revenue of RM40B will need much more than the minimum RM10B.

Assuming a dividend yield of say, 8% (which I think is the top of the range) from such a fund, the seed money will need to be RM500B for dividend of RM40B.

I am not pouring cold water but to put thing in perspective and be more pragmatic and realistic please.

Of course the next question is what will happen to Khazanah? Can it not be change to one similar to the Norwegian? Disband? Just because it is not set up by PH?

When was market not sentiment driven?

To all Malaysian bloggers here on i3, congratulation and I am humbled and wrong.

Here wishing the best to the future of Malaysia and may it prosper and be a place that all Malaysian would want to treat it as the first and only home.

So please bring back all your money parked offshore and make RM to USD about 3.5 as oil price is now above USD75/barrel.

Have a blessed weekend.

Who does not want a good clean government. I also want that.

But to put ones' bet on the biggest liar / racist / corruptor in chief, Dr M (and a good actor too, crying and all to gain sympathy), plus all the lies / bullshits spilling out of PH, I just cannot trust PH.

Forgive all you want, I just don't trust this man, Dr M who fly in private jet to nomination! It is all for himself and his sons ONLY.

A leopard never changes it spots, history always repeat itself.

Anywhere, thank you for the sharing, and happy voting, this is a free country after all, go and vote, "save the country", because there is this huge group of aliens (Bangladeshis) coming to vote BN or something like that - pian say kiay (cheat small kids), so damn insulting!

Seriously, a person like Dr M will change?!? I would like to be proven wrong.

As a Malaysian, it is so sad that we have no better choice?!? Come on there must be someone out there like Macron, New Zealand's Ardern, what's with the youth? Too late now, hopefully next GE.

Worse of all relying on blatant lies - bankrupt my foot! GST is bad for the country, gosh so naive, 160 other countries are wrong is it???, and the poor 2 million (and you all know who they mainly are) who pay income tax have to be relied on to continue to hold the whole country up while the remaining 28 millions (and you know who they mainly are) enjoy the country's hospital, roads, airports, ports, schools, etc without paying for the country upkeep. You call this justices?!? All Malaysian can pay and should pay, irregardless of colour of skin (white, yellow, chocolate, green) or even aliens from outer space.

Corruption, yes I also do not like. But please put your hand to your heart and said that you do not pay the traffic police to escape fine? Seriously. If you (majority of Malaysian) can do that than maybe, maybe, we can talk about change.

Serious changes like ensuring judges are appointed by a commission make up of prominent Malaysian, PM should not be finance minister, MACC to be answerable to Parliament, EC to be totally revamp and isolated from any political parties etc - then lets talk. Not lies.

Those who promise us paradise on earth never produced anything but hell - Karl Popper.

Bursalearner - base on the historical figures that was my conclusion. But the market (now) do not think so. So I really do not know.

3iii - which part? Comparing with Nestle, Dutch Lady, Aji or halving the PER? Please explain so that I can understand, thank you.

I have never invested in refinery before but drawn to it last year, 2017. And up till now still trying to understand why market behave the way it did. It sure is a complex business (high capex with wild fluctuation in revenue) and since they are people doing it, it must be profitable, otherwise why do it, there are so many other businesses one can do that is less complex and have a steady income with predictable profit.

Maybe we human just like to take risk, the more riskier the more kick.

Those who promise us paradise on earth never produced anything but a hell - Karl Popper

Be careful, when epf buy, not necessary epf per se, it is the fund manager entrusted by epf and these fund manager may have slightly different objective than that of epf.

Masterus, what are you trying to say, all these trade issues and monetary movement is going to affect CIMB? How? Please elaborate, thanks.

Tom, there is no need to call Mr Tan a liar. Everyone reading here should, no, MUST, use the thing between the ears to make their own decision. You can put forth your view that is different to Mr Tan, challenge please rather than just name calling. Then with more views, contrasting / collaborating, a better "path" become clear for all.

Have a nice weekend all.

Also during that period (2011 to 2014), the oil price was averaging USD 100+ per barrel (Of course after mid 2014 it plunged). Demand for oil refined products was being destroyed. So demand was reducing while capacity to refined increased - margin gone. Most, if not all refineries (in the world) lost money.

Mr Calvintaneng, I have the following comments:
a) Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) when they made the decision to sell PD refinery, the oil refining industry was in a doldrums (too many new refineries coming on-stream).
b) And RDS had to raise money to fund the takeover of their acquisition of British Gas. RDS not only sold PD, they also sold other refineries around the world during that period of time.
c) As recently as last year, RDS came out to say the oil refinery industry is the best with the change in the crack spread and the tightening of supply (i.e. fewer/no new refineries coming on-stream)
d) indeed your point on geographical constrain is very relevant.
e) costly refurbishment - well it was RDS excuse to make the sale more palpable for their shareholders. All refineries face the same refurbishment cost as oil refineries is an international business and cost anywhere in the world (yes including China) is more or less the same, save for manpower cost.
f) RAPID killing other refineries in Malaysia - currently up to 2025, the supply of refined oil products (RON 95, 97 / diesel, etc) is very tight given the increasing demand in Asia. The only thing that can de-rail this demand is a great recession or oil price suddenly leap above USD 80 a barrel. This (tightness) is also shown by Shell having an agreement to take all the products from Hengyuan for 10 years.
g) Of course, RAPID cost of production would be lower than HY as the boiler-plate of RAPID is 300,000 barrels per day vs 150,000 bpd for HY.
h) HY also able to refined crude from middle east. So input cost (feed-stock) for both is about the same.
i) About EV (electric vehicles), please!!! The introduction of EV will not hurt the refining business immediately. As if overnight all vehicles become electric. Yes in about 10 to 15 years time there will be a sizable of EV but till then, refineries should make some money going forward.

Have a good weekend all.

@Jeffreyteck - what an interesting take on the supplementary budget vs sweeping the floor.

Mr Ricky Yeo, fully agreed with your take on the dividend. Mr. Lee, if you want dividend as an income then probably HY is not for you. As a business man, I would not pay dividend as the business need upgrade and these upgrades (Euro4 & 5) is not cheap, and in addition fraught with all kind of risks - implementation risk, DT (Donald Trump) risk, financial risk, interest rate risk, etc. And the China investor is no difference from Shell and no superman as some make them out to be.

I think a lot of those thinks that was sold to US is actually from US companies manufacturing in China, probably more than 30%

It is too simplistic to say that SKorea, Japan and the other countries that export to US will immediately stop exporting to US and thus divert all their export to poor Malaysia. Please think deeper. Please do not forget that there is already an import duty imposed on steel bar coming to Malaysia since 2017 to 2019.

This is really a knee-jerk reaction out of all proportion as book value is about RM2 now selling for RM1, MOS is 100%. BUY!!!

Welcome and looking forward to your life story..

What are the counters?

Fabien Extr. That was what I thought that the OPR is 3% and not 6%. BTW, do you see Malaysia OPR going up this year and if so to what level. Thank you in advance.

Fully agreed that klia2 is poorly designed.

Basically, they need the money from klia2 to subsidies klia. Poor subsidizing the rich!!!!!!

We must all protest.

There is another fundamental difference between PetronM and HY, PetronM has retail, HY does not have.

Yes increase valuation for HY is possible but to be same as PetronM would be pushing it (asking too much). PDag only retail. So market is valuing retail higher as there is no worry of gain/loss due to oil price changes and crack spread. Less volatility compared with refining business. PDag continued to make money during the period 2011 to 2014 while refineries were bleeding red.

Easy, buy the refined products according to world price (more or less), marked up and sell (as demand sure there). Always make money (question of percentage only).

I added the project cost to the RM 1.757b debt is because at that time when Msia government mandated the Euro4 and Euro5, the company would be looking at raising debt for those projects hence the total debt would be about RM3B.

But of course, fund raising (right issue, private placement+debt, etc) could be an alternative, but the feeling then was no one want to pump in money.

Accepted that the current RM700M is for 2 projects, I read this in the 2016 annual report and as reported in Sundaily. But for simplicity lumped as one, my bad.

Moving forward, yes, HY currently is making tons of money, but the dynamic could change quite fast. These are:
1) new refineries coming on-stream thus increasing supply (this is for sure),
2) higher oil prices would lead to reduce growth in demand,
3) or oil prices could come down leading to losses in feed-stock (this losses could be larger than the crack spread)
4) The crack spread could come down from increase supply (as per 1) above) or reduce demand or 2018 no big hurricane (no shutdown in US), no fires, etc.

Projecting current conditions into the future is dangerous; for one, in 2018, HY definitely will make less money as the shutdown (no production!) is 2.5 months. In 2015, there was a 44 days shutdown, revenue, profit, cash flow were all down a lot for that quarter. And there could be unplanned shutdown as the refinery is run at full steam to cash in the high crack spread (as most refineries in the world are doing).

And the assumption that PetronM will shutdown for 6 years for the upgrade is not correct. The refinery will continue to run until the need to tie-in the new equipment to existing ones. Else, with your assumption, then HY also need to shutdown for the coming quarter till Oct 2018 then for the upgrade to EURO4M?

So yes, HY is making good money now, yes, higher valuation is possible. But be cautious, I am sure all of you are smart investors.

Could anyone point me to the RM 3 billion estimate, thank you as I could not find such an estimate.

InsiderR, it would be Shell is tied to certain technology as Shell (pioneer refinery business) probably co-finance the development of that technology for Euro4M and Euro5 and not forgetting estimate was made during high oil price environment. Price now should be 15 to 25% cheaper.

Nevertheless, Shell then had cold feet (sold many refineries assets around 2015/2016 not only Malaysia) but now very bullish on refinery business base on their announcement to bring back the cracker in US.

Perseverance was missing in SHELL.

As investor, perseverance is important to determine the correct facts, then direction (up or down) is known.

PETRON estimated cost to upgrade the SIMPLE 60k BPD refinery to a COMPLEX 120k BPD refinery for about RM6.4B may not be too high. Beside Petron costing cannot be compared with the RM700m Euro4M upgrade as they are totally different.

The internal estimate of RM3B quoted, is arrived as follows:

FY2014 - debt was RM 1.757B (gearing 84%)
upgrade to EURO4M is RM700M (to be implemented by 2018 1st Oct)
upgrade to EURO5 is RM500M (to be implemented by 2020)
Total RM2.957B i.e. RM3B.

Back in 2013 and 2014, with the mandated (compulsory) implementation of EURO4M and EURO5, Shell concluded, with then prevailing economic condition, the risk too much/high.

It is no miracle, just timing and LUCK. And to entice Shandong Hengyuan, the selling price was only about RM2.0 per share + HY had to refinance the RM 1.7B loan (basically become guarantor with Shell exit)

From the above, it can be seen that foresight and with timing, luck come along.

So looking towards 2018, 2019 and 2020, assuming everything remains unchanged, of course HY going to make superb profit (& cashflow). BUT economy is not like this, oil price might rise causing chain reaction that may bring back the environment similar to 2011 to 1H2014. More new/upgraded refineries increasing supply, etc, etc, 2018 is cloudy and 2019 even more cloudy.

Enjoy the run up for now and have a nice weekend.

Miracle performed by Chinese investor - this is too shortsighted/narrow a view. It was a timing issue. The long period of high oil price before the plunge from mid-2014 caused demand to sag and coupled with new refineries coming on during that period, caused too much supply of refined products chasing ever dwindling demand. This led to multi-years of losses (from 2011 to 2014), hence, majors (Shell, Exxon, etc) wanting to get out of the refining business.

This caused the big major to reduce production of refined products (i.e. mothball/shutdown some refineries and reduced maintenance from 2012 onward). In 2017, hurricanes (US 20+%refineries shutdown and some flooded), fires (in Europe) followed by major maintenance (US after flooding), all leading to lower supply.

Meanwhile, the low oil price since mid 2014 have caused demand to increase.

Supply down, demand up, the price of refined product skyrocketed.

That is why Hengyuan (and most refineries) making so much money, luck, or maybe they have better foresight than the majors (Shell, Exxon, etc), more LUCK in my humble view.

Come 2018, 3rd quarter will be a bad quarter as there will be a shutdown for about 2.5 months. This is mandatory (required by law for inspection to ensure that equipment remain safe for operation to continue and the upgrade to Euro4M). And there could be surprises (un-planned maintenance as the refinery has been running almost full, and the newly installed equipment for EURO 4M could have hiccup during run in).

So market may have factored this in, that is why lower PE. On top of this there probably some new refineries (elsewhere in the world) coming on-stream in 2018, thus increasing supply. With crude oil price appearing to rise in 2018, demand growth could start to slow and demand plateau. More supply chasing almost same demand; All this would lead to lower price for refined products.

Hengyuan will still make money but less than 2017 for sure.

Have a nice weekend.

Valuation is indeed fraught with individual perception on the "beauty" at hand. is Hengyuan beautiful or not - to some at 8.5, definitely yes, to others a BIG FAT NO.

But based on current cost to build a refinery as outlined by David, it cost anything north of RM 103 to 288 million per 1kbpd. So now with Hengyuan current rated production capacity of 125kpd, to build one similar would cost RM 13 billion vs current market price of about RM 3 billion.

OK because, the refinery at PD is old, etc etc, say discount 50%, that is only worth RM 6 billion, then the current price is cheap indeed.

If one check, the Chairman (a lady) had her CV cleaned and without reference to UMNO. Even The Edge reporting also did not mentioned her link to UMNO. Also note that KWAP had bought more than 30m shares lately. This bring KWAP shareholding to almost 5%.

Looking forward, Dato Munir may leave (MyEg) Board of Director. Then on paper all link to UMNO will be cleared.

This un-UMNO-nisation process and upping KWAP stakes is to protect MyEg in a possible Pakatan led Federal Government.

Don't get your hope up, in general, whether PH win or not, it is good for business (no link to political party). This is important as the next growth driver, foreign worker accommodation (FWA), will be in Selangor and Penang. That is where the (most FW) big market is. That is not to say in other States, MyEg is not working on. MyEg had already (or almost) completed obtaining the land for FWA in Johor.

The aim is 500 locations to accommodate 1m FW. Go work out the maths.

Have a happy week ahead.

MyEg is preparing themselves for post GE14 world.

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, and I must confess I am guilty of it many time over. Banting is a Hot roll (steel) coil plant (HRC) and it can also do CRC i.e cold roll coil. It is protected by Government in terms of HRC and have basically gone bankrupt as it has not made money since 2012. Hence, in this long steel product article, it is not relevant. So my previous comment on possible higher eps and lower pe is not relevant at all, infact it could be negative if impairment still an ongoing process.

hng33, thank you for the information on the revaluation of the Banting plant. Indeed if the Banting plant is revived, there will be exceptional gain from the revaluation (upward). Thus, eps would be higher in the coming quarters if Banting runs and PER could be much lower than 5 as postulated by Mr. Lim. All this assume that the demand of long steel remains high / very high for the coming 12 months.