The company itself does have some problems to trigger selldown to happen such as: I) the completion date of their projects is delayed. ii) the debt level is high iii) the directors pledged all their shares.
The selldown was triggered by an incident on 17th, it was accelerated by another incident on 23rd, and then short-sellers joined in, more selldown happened, directors met margin call and disposed of their shares, selldown deepen, more fear from retailers, more profit for short-sellers, further selldown happened and so on and so forth. It is a typical vicious cycle.
The selldown might have triggered as early as 17th May when the directors disposed of a relatively smaller amount of their shares (could be due to a margin call too). Since 24th May, the selldown accelerated probably due to the bond incident that happened on 23th May. I suppose that's why the CEO called in the RAM officer to reaffirm its rating on the 25th, and the announcement was made on the 27th. Otherwise, why would such an announcement related to RAM rating be published in the midst of selldown. Make sense to u ?
Hi Klse2022, yes, I am quite sure the reason doesn't relate to accounting fraud bcos there is a period of time for a company to be subject to a financial audit. For Cypark whose financial period ends in Oct, their last audit should fall between Nov'21 to Feb'22 before the FY21 annual report was published. For quarterly reports being published, they are not being audited. That's why u can see Cypark's Q1 FY22 report with the title says: "Unaudited" Condensed Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income For the First Quarter ended 31 January 2022
Let's study what was the reason for the selling pressure and disposal of shares from directors? - it was not a debt payment issue as RAM has reaffirmed its AA3 rating. - it was not LSS2 or WTE project issues as the management has explained the reasons for the delay and these projects will commence operation in Sept 2022. - it could not be audit discrepancy issue as it's audited FY21 annual report just published in Feb 2022, and there is no financial audit going on in Cypark now.
The BusyWeekly article (dated 28th May) pointed out that the possible reason was : On 23 May, there was an "extraordinary resolution notice" issued to bondholders. The changes include modifications to the transaction terms and payment structure. BusyWeekly opines that this could be the reason for triggering selling pressure on the next day, i.e. 24th May.
The timing makes sense as the above was what happened one day before the selling pressure started on 24th. Busyweekly also commented that, subsequently, the short-sellers came in to worsen the selling pressure and then directors might face margin call and had to dispose of some of their shares.
It is weird that EPF disposed of 5mil shares before the 2 directors did. The 5mil shares are a lot as Cypark's daily transaction volume is less than that on normal day. I noticed all the Cypark shares owned by the two directors are in the pledged account. Is it possible that the two directors foresaw they would face a margin call after the drastic drop on 24th and took the initiative to dispose before force selling comes? This is possible but not likely..
If Trump wins the coming election, more tariff on China is possible bcos he will has nothing to lose. But, before Nov'20 election, I don't think so. He will continue to attack China, especially verbally, from now till election day bcos he knows most American love to hear that. Anti-China move will win votes for him.
More tariff on China ? I don't think Trump dares to do so from now till Nov'20 election. The reason is US is struggling to recover from economic downturn. What they need to do is to think of many ways to boost their economic activity and employment. Imposing further tariff on China goods will go opposite direction.
Poor quarterly result but stock price didn't drop showed that the poor result was priced in. I think Sapnrg's provision for impairments is too much as they even do impairment for the anticipated prolonged recovery of oil price...is that necessary ? I think the management tried to do kitchen-sinking in this last quarter of FY20, so that FY21 results can look better.
Add SAPNRG at 10sen today. The fight between Russia and Saudi has ended. This means there is no supply related concern for crude oil now. What left is the demand concern, which has been impacted by Covid-19 pandemic. We can see that European countries are gradually opening up their economy. US also plans to do so in May. This means the demand for oil will come back, so as the crude oil price.
I cannot predict the crude oil price in future. But, I can be quite sure the oil price one to two months from now will be higher than today, so as the stock price of Sapura.
This article came out yesterday but Bursa has rebounded since end Mar'20, and Cold Eyes still asking us to wait for the bottom ? The bottom already passed lar.
This Coronavirus scare is differ from 2008 financial crisis that needs longer time to pass. When Europe and US's number of confirmed case per day starts to reduce, the stock market starts to recover. The market does not need to wait till vaccine is found or all the dusts settled. Remember, stock market is always forward-looking.
Nowadays, many do not look at the performance of Dow Jones on last trading day that much. What many look at is the performance of the future Dow Jones when Bursa opens on Monday. The future will give hint weather Dow Jones will trade higher or lower in the night, and therefor become the reference of many Bursa investors. Just refer to last 2 weeks' future Dow Jones and Bursa's movement, u would know what I mean above.
Many many stocks are cheap now, not only Genting. The market will recover sooner or later. The Covid-19 won't be there for very long. The investors just have to get through this difficult period. There is definite light in the end of the tunnel.
Sapure normally has impairment write-off in last Q4. The coming Q4 FY20 will see another round of impairment write-off ? or we will see reversal in impairment write-off since more projects are kicked off from Feb'2019 to Jan'2020 and higher utilisation of PPE, and hence reversal in PPE impairments ?
Only insiders know. But the price now is really really low, treating SAPNRG stock like rubbish. So, just add lar.
Market does not give high PE to SAM just like to other technology stocks, and I wonder why ? Maybe the reason is it has aerospace division, apart from semiconductor division. Market mainly appreciates semiconductor division as it will ride on 5G wave ?
SAM is indeed selling at cheap valuation based on its earnings capability.
Poor results due to project claims and variation orders. I think the management did kitchen-sinking in this quarter as all the bad things dump together into this quarter's account. What can hope is its stock price has plunged so much in past 1 year and has taken into account this quarter's poor results.
In next quarter, almost sure Muhibbah will back to profitability, so just has to endure for next 3 months till Jan-Mar'20 quarterly result to publish..
ABMB's earnings has normalised to 8+sen level. At this EPS level, its stock price should back to ~RM4 level. The subsequent quarters should see its earnings at about current level. ABMB is obviously undervalued. If not due to present panic sentiment, ABMB's stock price should surge this afternoon. Anyway, it is a matter of sooner or later. Holding ABMB needs not worry about current panic selling.
Good results ! If I take the last 4 quarters to do valuation, FIHB is selling at merely 4x PE multiple and 0.28 P/BV. How come market gives such low valuation to FIHB ?? I know it is not in popular industry, but its valuation is still too unreasonable.
My calculation shows the min fair value is RM2.59 per share, and that is the minimum fair value. The higher fair value would depend on what PE multiple the market is willing to give to Kobay.
Kobay is in the same industry, i.e. precision component, tooling and metal fabrication, as UWC and FPGroup. If one looks at their PE multiple and compare with Kobay's, u can see how much Kobay can go up in stock price if it can get PE multiple closer to its peers.
Great results as expected. Management has given guidance that this quarter would see good earnings. In next quarter, the Phase 1 expansion of Suzhou plant should start its contribution, but China operation may be impacted by Covid-19 and delay in work resumption. The longer term prospect for MPI remains good --> Hold MPI.
As expected, EPS has improved QoQ but lower YoY. Elsoft would perform better in year 2020 with the new 5G phones coming up, more LED flash lights are needed. Year 2019 was a bad year for semiconductor industry and it has passed.
Notion was actually made loss in last quarter, the EPS was boosted by insurance claims income and reversal of inventories written down. In Oct-Dec'19 quarter, its EPS may just be slight positive or even at loss again..
Its current stock price has "overrun" its potential improvement from EMS and Automotive segments by a lot. It is not wise to chase high at current price level. I think shareholder should dispose to take profit.
What i am trying to say is Notion's earnings has good potential to improve in FY20 and FY21 (as what management has guided) but its stock price has risen more than it's potential earnings improvement.
Sorry to pour cold water. The above are my sincere opinion after studying Notion's financial reports.
Some people curious why revenue increased by 44% QoQ but why net profit increased merely 1% QoQ. The reasons are there were forex loss, write-off for obsolete inventory, and year-end bonus to employees in Q4 quarter. If without these one-off items, Mi's net profit in this quarter will be even better !
Mi is in the right industry and managed by top-class management team.
Mi has reached my target price today but feeling very hesitate to sell bcos the management guided that the coming Q4 earnings should be good, and 2020 earnings will be even BETTER bcos customers have increased their capex budgets in 2020. For example, TSMC announced (in Oct'19)to increase capex by 40% in 2020.
In addition, in 2020, its new business segments, i.e. Mi Automotics and Mi Components, will commence operation and start to contribute to revenue and earnings.
I think I should hold Mi even at current price level. Hope the decision will turn out to be correct.
AWC is undervalued. Nothing wrong with this company, don't turn pessimistic just bcos its stock price drops. Market loves technology stocks now. AWC is kind of in the industry that people ignore. One day, market will give fair value to AWC.
Its good to have growth stocks (eg. tech stocks) + value stocks (eg. AWC) in our portfolio.
One can notice MI did well in last Q32019 but not other ATE players such as Vitrox, Elsoft, MMSV and Aemulus. This is bcos MI's ATE equipment is differ from others. MI produces wafer-level packaging (WLCSP) ATE and others are semiconductor component or PCBA ATE producers.
In semiconductor boom cycle, the wafer-level player benefits first and subsequently come down to semiconductor component packaging players. Just look at Taiwan TSMC, u would know what I mean.
Finally MHB registered profit in this quarter ! 2020 will be a turnaround year for MHB. If and when its Heavy Engineering segment's newly secured project reach the higher progression stage, MHB's earnings should improve further.
But of course the condition is Kobay must show growth in its revenue and earnings just like UWC and FoundPac did. I believe Kobay can achieve that in FY2020 riding on the recovery of semiconductor industry.
It is reasonable to compare Kobay with FoundPac and UWC because they belong to the same industry, i.e. precision components, tooling and metal fabrication. Both FoundPac and UWC are selling at 30x-40x PE multiple now, and Kobay is a much cheaper option as it is selling at merely 10x PE multiple.
The question is will market give Kobay higher PE multiple, just like they gave to UWC and FoundPac ? If market does recognise Kobay is a much cheaper option for precision parts industry one day, Kobay's stock price will surge.
I just noticed the total volume of 4.8k shares transacted today are all acquired by me. It's like Kobay open for trading today is solely for my sake, haha. Anyway, I have accumulated almost enough. Wait and hope for better quarterly result b4 end Feb.
Added SAPNRG. At this price, the downside risk is really very low. Even if it again make loss in coming Q, its stock price should stay at the same level. If SAPNRG can turn profitable in subsequent quarters, it's stock price will fly. Just look at its P/BV and outstanding orderbook, u can imagine how.