Posted by anbz > 2013-03-30 21:55 | Report Abuse

great links there brother iafx, i've seen that reuters before but don't know what should be clicked. thanks ... too many numbers , i've a degree in mathematics, but i hate this, so many numbers , that need to be studied.
,
and mr kcchongnz u stated that:
---------------
equity = Assets - Liabilities.

With assets overvalued, it means equity will be bigger. As ROE=NI/Equity,

Hence ROE will be smaller, hence not looked better.
----------------------
u're refering to mbl or cbip? and
if roe looked small because assets is overvalued , doesn't that mean the share is also overvalued?
--------------------------
and about mbl ...i've looked at it before , low pe , but low volume and people don't like it, don't know why...so ignore it before, the nta stated in its last quarter is 0.89 ...then in rhbinvest is 0.98...don't know which is right...i'm a small trader ...i cannot be trapped by illiquid counter. but announcement on this counter was that it paid RM24,750,000 to overtake one of its subsidiary BY CASH... i don't know what is mean by cash...
cash pakai duit sendirikah atau duit pinjam bank kah, if it was by its own money...this company is quite rich with cash isn't it? or is it the last of it?
-------------------------------
one i called brother because i think he's a young man
one i called mr because i think he's a senior
--------
tq both ... by the way ehmmmm...promote ni ye ... mkland beli beli beli , others property company are buying lands... mkland is selling lands, beli beli , one of the parcel of a land ... i calculate in the mkland forum to be rm 3.6 billions...mr kcchongnz, am i right about this...just parcel of land around 261 acres in sg buloh...am i wrong?

Posted by gark > 2013-03-30 22:14 | Report Abuse

Degree in mathematics? Lmao... you should be able to count everything right?

Posted by gark > 2013-03-30 22:18 | Report Abuse

Kcchongnz comparing cbip vs mbl, i prefer cbip because of patent and tax free status. Kernal crushing plant is relatively smaller than palm oil mill and also less in number. Most plantation will have 2 to 3 palm oil mill for every kernal plant. However competition in the kernal plant is considerably less.

Posted by anbz > 2013-03-30 23:01 | Report Abuse

i thought with degree in mathematics , i can be rich in bursa ... i was absolutely wrong...i get burnt, (hampir bangkrap in 2007),... because bursa is not just about numbers...that's why i don't count much with numbers too deeply like u all

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-03-31 00:50 | Report Abuse

http://sleepwellinvesting.blogspot.com/2012/03/cb-industrial-product-holding-vs-muar.html

looks like someone done a comparison before

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-03-31 00:51 | Report Abuse

gark, i agree that CBIp has a moat there... which is why i applied a higher R to the valuation analysis to MBL compared to CBIP....

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-31 09:14 | Report Abuse

Posted by anbz > Mar 30, 2013 09:55 PM | Report Abuse
great links there brother iafx, i've seen that reuters before but don't know what should be clicked. thanks ... too many numbers , i've a degree in mathematics, but i hate this, so many numbers , that need to be studied.

ME: WHAT THE HELL IS THIS LINK FOR? DO WHAT WITH IT? FIND "REPORTS" OF CAGR?
,
and mr kcchongnz u stated that:
---------------
equity = Assets - Liabilities.

With assets overvalued, it means equity will be bigger. As ROE=NI/Equity,

Hence ROE will be smaller, hence not looked better.
----------------------
u're refering to mbl or cbip? and
if roe looked small because assets is overvalued , doesn't that mean the share is also overvalued?

ME; EQUITY=ASSETS-LIABILITIES, THAT IS THE VERY BASIC OF A BALANCE SHEET NECESSARY TO KNOW ABOUT THE FINANCIAL POSITION OF A COMPANY. IF YOU WANT TO INVEST IN THE STOCK MARKET, YOU MUST KNOW THIS. IT IS NOT ABOUT CBIP NOR MBL.

ROE IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT METRICS OF THE EFFICIENCY OF THE OPERATION OF A COMPANY. ROE=NI/EQUITY AND THERE ARE AT LEAST THREE WAYS OF ROE IS COMPUTED; ONE USING THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR EQUITY, ONE AT THE END OF THE YEAR, BUT THE MOST "THEORITICALLY CORRECT" ONE SHOULD BE USING THE AVERAGE OF THE TWO.
--------------------------
and about mbl ...i've looked at it before , low pe , but low volume and people don't like it, don't know why...so ignore it before, the nta stated in its last quarter is 0.89 ...then in rhbinvest is 0.98...don't know which is right...i'm a small trader ...i cannot be trapped by illiquid counter. but announcement on this counter was that it paid RM24,750,000 to overtake one of its subsidiary BY CASH... i don't know what is mean by cash...
cash pakai duit sendirikah atau duit pinjam bank kah, if it was by its own money...this company is quite rich with cash isn't it? or is it the last of it?

ME: AGAIN, LISTEN, LISTEN, LISTEN. DON'T DO TRADING. IT IS NOT SUITABLE FOR YOU. IT IS ESPECIALLY NOT SUITABLE FOR A RETAIL STOCK PLAYER. YOU CANNOT BEAT THOSE INSIDERS, MANIPULATORS AND THOSE VERY GOOD IN TA. STOCK NO LIQUIDITY? INVESTING, UNLIKE TRADING AND PUNTING, IS NOT ABOUT LIQUIDITY OF STOCK. I HAVE PROVIDED SO MANY EXAMPLES OF LONG AND SHORT TERM RETURNS OF NOT LIQUID STOCKS. THE RETURNS ARE GOOD WHEN COMPARED WITH THE MARKET RETURN. PURCHASE SOMETHING WITH CASH MEANS USING CASH, NO BORROWINGS, NO ISSUING SHARES ETC.
-------------------------------
one i called brother because i think he's a young man
one i called mr because i think he's a senior

ME; DO YOU THINK THE SENIOR IS BETTER IN FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTING AND YOUR BROTHER. SERIOUSLY YOUR "BROTHER" KNOWS NUTS ABOUT INVESTING. IT IS OK IF ONE DOESN'T KNOW. NOBODY KNOWS EVERYTHING. BUT LOOK HOW HE REPEATEDLY MAKING A BLOODY FOOL OF HIMSELF EVERYWHERE. WELL, IT IS UP TO YOU WHETHER YOU WANT TO LISTEN TO YOUR BROTHER, OR YOUR SENIOR.
--------
tq both ... by the way ehmmmm...promote ni ye ... mkland beli beli beli , others property company are buying lands... mkland is selling lands, beli beli , one of the parcel of a land ... i calculate in the mkland forum to be rm 3.6 billions...mr kcchongnz, am i right about this...just parcel of land around 261 acres in sg buloh...am i wrong?

ME; I HAVE WRITTEN ABOUT MKLAND A COUPLE OF TIMES. ITS FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE HAS NOT BEEN GOOD FOR MANY YEARS ALREADY. I DON'T KNOW ABOUT THAT LAND YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT. OK LAH BUT NOTHING GREAT IN MY OPINION. THE CREDIBILITY OF THE MANAGEMENT TO ME IS MORE IMPORTANT. THERE ARE SO MANY OTHER BETTER PROPERTY COMPANIES. I DON'T KNOW ABOUT ITS SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE THOUGH.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-31 09:20 | Report Abuse

Posted by anbz > Mar 30, 2013 11:01 PM | Report Abuse
i thought with degree in mathematics , i can be rich in bursa ... i was absolutely wrong...i get burnt, (hampir bangkrap in 2007),... because bursa is not just about numbers...that's why i don't count much with numbers too deeply like u all

ME: SEE I TOLD YOU NOT TO GAMBLE? I NOW YOU DON'T LIKE I SAY YOU GAMBLE, BUT GOOD MEDICINE NEVER TASTE SWEET. IF YOU HAVE FOLLOW THOSE NUMBERS; I MEAN LOOK AT THE BUSINESS OF A COMPANY, ITS OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCIES, FINANCIAL HEALTH, CASH FLOWS ETC; AND BUY THE STOCK AT A DISCOUNT TO ITS INTRINSIC VALUE, YOU WILL NEVER GET BURNT AND GO TO HOLLAND. LOOK AT THOSE GOOD STOCKS, EVEN IF YOU BOUGHT THEM AT THE PEAK IN EARLY 2008 AND PLUNGE DUE TO THE SUBLIME CRISIS, MOST OF THEM WOULD HAVE RECOVERED AND EVEN SCALE NEW HIGH IN SHARE PRICE.

YES, IT IS NOT ALL ABOUT NUMBERS, BUT THEY ARE IMPORTANT, DEPENDING WHICH NUMBERS YOU ARE PAYING ATTENTION TO.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-31 10:03 | Report Abuse

house, i think MBL is berry berry interesting. Shall we look at it in more details? gark and anyone else?

Yeah CBIP has more established record and probably better business. But i always have this notion that a better company may not be a better investment. A not so great business may be a better investment depending on the orice you pay. Of course the not-so-good business must also be good also.

Posted by gark > 2013-03-31 11:29 | Report Abuse

anzb.. it is not the numbers that is important in investing, it is the meaning of the numbers which determines it all.

If you can understand the meaning of the various numbers, you can minimise your risk while maximise your potential gain.

Think risk first, then profit.

Posted by gark > 2013-03-31 12:00 | Report Abuse

MBL.. here goes overall view.

1. Good margins on products (kernel equipment) gross margin nearly 50%, net margin about 20%. This shows they have little competitors. Sales size remain a fraction of CBIP, due to less kernel plant than palm oil mill.
2. Net cash of 37 million, zero debt.Very little capex, very little depreciation, so everything is pure cashflow. pay 50% of earning as dividend, current rate about 7-8% yield. Pay VERY low tax due to pioneer status (for kernel crushing technology) similar to CBIP.
3. Selling at PE 5.5x, Reasonable profit growth > 10% cagr.The owners are buying a whole load of shares. Market is illiquid, micro cap, so will not attract institutional players.
4. Recently proposed to acquire 1,500 acres of plantation land in Sokor, Kelantan for 24 million. Price 16k/acre is of fair value as the oil palm are fully planted and newly matured. The plantation is profitable and is expected to contribute about 100-200k p.a. to MBL profit.
5. Interestingly 80% of sales is to outside of malaysia. Means he brand has captured international market. Biggest customer out of Malaysia is in Indonesia, Papua and Columbia.

Posted by gark > 2013-03-31 12:07 | Report Abuse

Kcchong got an interesting arbitage play for you. Time com is going to distribute 0.24 shares of digi for every 1 share held. The stock now is worth RM4/share and will distribute RM1/share worth of digi stock as script dividend. The business is recently doing great and has turn around after may years of losses. However there is no guarantee the stock will not fall significantly after the digi shares distribution.

Posted by gark > 2013-03-31 12:08 | Report Abuse

What do you think?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-31 12:54 | Report Abuse

gark, with the closing price of digi last Friday at 4.63, the share dividend amount to RM1.11 per share. Found the pants (wonderful). But why didn't you tell me earlier, I mean before the announcement of this share dividend in December last year? No good friend lah you. Time Dotcom's share price has run up about 50 sen already oh from then.

But seriously, like declaring a cash dividend, the money is from the cash (in this case the shares of Digi) it holds in its balance sheet. What is the big effect? It is only the shareholders think oh now got distribution of money, must buy buy buy and chase up Time Dotcom's share price. Do you notice that the share price of Digi has dropped from a high of 5.35 a couples of months ago? Shareholders better get the share dividend asap. if not don't know whether digi's share price will further drop before the share dividend is distributed.

My personal opinion is if I want to invest in Time Dotcom, I will do so if there is a good future of its business (not the share dividend); and that the price is at a good discount to the expected future cash flows. Don't know much of Time Dotcom but from remembering an article or two about Time Dotcom, its future may be bright. This is not an arbitrage play.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-03-31 13:07 | Report Abuse

Dear Kcchongnz,

I am not good in FA, I just want to try it on MBL and CBIP, please give your comment.

I emphasize on GROWTH.

MBL

3 years Average Turnover = 41,521
31/12/2011 (Latest)= 55,062
Growth = 32.6%
3 years Average Net Profit = 9,350
31/12/2011 (Latest)= 12,208
Growth = 30.6%
3 years Average Operating Activities = 4,636
31/12/2011 (Latest)= 10,703
Growth = 130.9%

EPS/2010/2011
7.8/13.3
Growth = 70.13%
ROE/2010/2011
12.4/17.5
Growth = 41.13%

Price CAGR% (Buy and hold)
History return = 12.65%
3 years return = 21.72%

Method 1 (Waren)
EPS = 0.133
g = 5% growth
Y = 3.5
IV=(EPS*(8.5+2g)*4.4)/Y
IV = 1.44
Current price = 0.97
Margin of safety = 32.6%

Method 2
IV=ROE/Rr*NTA
ROE = 17.5%
Rr = 10%
NTA = 0.75
IV = 1.31
Margin of safety = 26.0%

CBIP

10 years Average Turnover = 257,145
31/12/2011 (Latest)= 322,611
Growth = 25.5%
10 years Average Net Profit = 40,604
31/12/2011 (Latest)= 104,603
Growth = 157.6%
10 years Average Operating Activities = 37,170
31/12/2011 (Latest)= 119,790
Growth = 222.30%

EPS/2010/2011
49.7/77.7
Growth = 56.34
ROE/2010/2011
23.0/27.5
Growth = 19.57%

Price CAGR% (Buy and hold)
History return = 18.76%
3 years return = 25.03%

Method 1 (Waren)
EPS = 0.777
g = 4% growth
Y = 3.5
IV=(EPS*(8.5+2g)*4.4)/Y
IV = 8.38
Current price = 2.58
Margin of safety = 69.2%

Method 2
IV=ROE/Rr*NTA
ROE = 27.5%
Rr = 10%
NTA = 1.39
IV = 3.82
Margin of safety = 48.1%

The IV for MBL is ranging from 1.31 to 1.44.

The IV for CBIP is ranging from 3.82 to 8.38.
I think Method 1 for CBIP is not that accurate because EPS is very high for 2011.

Technical chart

MBL is an up trending stock now.
CBIP is still a down trending stock.

I prefer to buy MBL instead of CBIP.

Please comment.

Thank you.

Ooi

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-31 13:28 | Report Abuse

Ooi, you got the right methods of valuation using Graham's Growth Model and the simple ROE. More important are the data and assumptions. Again in investment, we can't do anything without assumptions (just to preempt those unnecessary destructive criticisms).

If you are interested in CBIP and MBL, use their latest results ending 31/12/2012. Rr, like what house mentioned before, as MBL is not as established as CBIP, maybe one should use a higher Rr. Again no right or wrong because the balance sheet of MBL is great too and may warrant a low Rr of 10% like what you use. Since the growth rate of MBL is so high, why do you use 5% only, a growth in the next 5-7 years? Being conservative? Again no right of wrong here. But the difference in value is huge.

CBIP, you must exclude the extra-ordinary gain from the earnings, like sale of CBIP's plantation. They are one tine off event. Won't repeat. So is the ROE.

So do you see the art of valuation now? But in my opinion, if one use conservative assumptions and still get high margin of safety, the stock may offer a good opportunity to invest in.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-03-31 13:37 | Report Abuse

Dear KC,

Even I use 10%, the IV is 1.45, an increase of 1 sen. If I use 15%, IV is 1.47.

I agree I should use higher growth rate.

Still learning.

Thank you.

Ooi

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-31 13:55 | Report Abuse

Ooi, looking at Graham's formula below:

IV=(EPS*(8.5+2g)*4.4)/Y

Now I realized that the growth portion is small. for example, if the growth is 10%, 2*g is only 0.2, as compared to 8.5. That is why the figure doesn't change much when you alter the growth rate. This could mean that Graham doesn't place too much emphasize on growth, which is a forecast figure in the future. Just guessing.

Incidentally, the figure 8.5 is the PE ratio Graham used for all stocks; or if you flip it around, it is the earnings yield of about 12% which was Graham's desire.

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-03-31 14:27 | Report Abuse

gark, their tax rate is like 2.x % . When does this low tax rates expire ?

Posted by gark > 2013-03-31 14:45 | Report Abuse

I am checking on this. They have pioneer status, usually tax free for 5 to 10 years.

Posted by gark > 2013-03-31 14:51 | Report Abuse

Kcchongnz, what i mean to saythier bussiness looks good at rm 4, so the script divvy ia bonus. Currently selling at high pe but have very good growth rate. Virtual monopoly in the country internet backbone. Big big moat there....

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-31 15:13 | Report Abuse

gark, yeah I think I read about it. Time dotcom may have good future and prospect. But again this is all because of its political connection, am i right?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-03-31 15:47 | Report Abuse

Dear all,

I use annual report for 31/12/2012.

MBL

4 years Average Turnover = 44,906
31/12/2012 (Latest)= 78,799
Growth = 75.5%
4 years Average Net Profit = 10,065
31/12/2012 (Latest)= 17,096
Growth = 69.9%
4 years Average Operating Activities = 6,153
31/12/2012 (Latest)= 22,631
Growth = 130.9%

EPS/2010/2011/2012
7.8/13.3/18.6
Growth = 40.32%
ROE/2010/2011/2012
12.4/17.5/20.8
Growth = 18.86%

Method 1 (Warren)
EPS = 0.186
g = 10% growth
Y = 3.5
IV=(EPS*(8.5+2g)*4.4)/Y
IV = 2.03
Current price = 0.97
Margin of safety = 52.2%

Method 2
IV=ROE/Rr*NTA
ROE = 20.8%
Rr = 10%
NTA = 0.89
IV = 1.85
Margin of safety = 47.6%

The price is ranging from 1.85 to 2.03, margin of safety is ranging from 47.6% to 52.2%.

There is a chance to double your money, look attractive to me.

Please note that technical chart for MBL is showing an up trending stock now. Higher high and higher low is a sign of an up trending stock.

Please comment.

Thank you.

Ooi

Posted by gark > 2013-03-31 15:57 | Report Abuse

Looks like excellent margin of safety from mbl. Just too see if the profit is sustainable. Just noticed that they are not 100% reliant on palm oil. They do sell a small but increasing percentage of thier equipment to copra and jathropa. Bad thing is if they lose thier pioneer status,thier earnings will fall as they get taxed.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-31 15:58 | Report Abuse

Found the pants (wonderful) Ooi. Now I am not a lone ranger now in fundamental analysis and valuation in i3 already. Great?

Just a remark here. If investing is so simple, all of us would have been a multimillionaire already.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-31 16:55 | Report Abuse

Both of you house and gark posted excellent financial and non-financial of MBL. house, your EPV valuation is good. You quick to put that in your own spreadsheet already. gark 12.00noon post on MBL is excellent too. Some more Ooi, a technical analysis expert also did well in fundamentals. Very good discussions here.

Posted by anbz > 2013-03-31 17:40 | Report Abuse

i noticed , gark u have such enormous knowledge when u talked about a stock counter...where the hell u got all these information?...very2 amazed by your detailed info that most of us don't have a single clue

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-31 17:42 | Report Abuse

Hi all, I summarize some of the latest metrics of both cbip and mbl in comparison tables for discussion purpose:

Growth past year
MBL CBIP
Revenue 43% 61%
EBIT 38% 78%
NI 40% 25%
Equity 18% 31%

Profitability
Gross Margin 43.2% 20.5%
EBIT margin 21.7% 17.1%
NI margin 21.7% 16.5%
ROE 22.5% 19.5%
ROIC 35.8% 25.2%

Market stats MBL CBIP
No. of shares 92000 272008
Price 0.97 2.51
Mar Cap 89240 682740
MEV 52423 357091
EPS $0.186 $0.315
P/E 5.2 8.0
MEV/EBIT 3.1 4.0
DY 10.3% 21.9%

Opinions are highly appreciated

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-03-31 18:54 | Report Abuse

kc, the 21.9% dividend yield for CBIP is one off... I dont expect it to be that high in the coming years as they need to reserve cash for their planting activities. MBL has no immediate huge capex need so i expect their dividend payout will be quite consistent..

What is MEV/EBIT ? what does this tell us
ROIC ? Reterun on invested capital ? what is that ?

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-03-31 18:55 | Report Abuse

i found this in 2009 annual report. tax exempt to end by 2016

MBLT has been granted pioneer status by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry of Malaysia under the Promotion of Investments Act, 1986 for the manufacture of automated kernel crushing plant and related parts. With the pioneer status, 100% of the statutory business income of MBLT will be exempted from income tax for ten (10) years from 2006 (the first year in which MBLT has statutory business income

Posted by gark > 2013-03-31 18:58 | Report Abuse

House, great info, wonder why they bury under an old annual report. Means mbl have longer pioneer status than cbip.

Posted by gark > 2013-03-31 19:02 | Report Abuse

Anbz, to get full info you need to do proper research. I am sure all the guys here is doing their homework and not pluck info out of thin air. Each of them spend some time to read, gather anssummarise the info.

Read their quarterly repot, annual report and announcement on bursa. You can do it too,all info is public knowledge.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-03-31 19:58 | Report Abuse

house, MEV is the abbreviation i used for the market enterprise value. It exclude those excess cash and other investment which is not part of the ordinary business of a company ("ordinary business" emphasized here again). It means these things can just be distributed to shareholders without affecting its ordinary business. So

MEV=market capitalization+total debts-excess cash-other investments

MEV/Ebit is a measure like P/E but it is more appropriate to compare two companies with different cash position and capital structures.

Similarly for return on invested capital. These you can Google and find the explanations and why ROIC may be a better comparison between companies because of the difference in capital structures.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-04-01 16:41 | Report Abuse

Comparing MBL and CBIP
You can see that the margins of MBL is higher and hence its ROE. ROIC of MBL is fantastic at 36%, more than 3 times the cost of capital.

Actually both companies have done very ell last year with the high ROE and ROIC. MBL is better than cbip. With that you would expect MBL to have a higher valuation. We will ignore for the time being that cbip is a more established and bigger company.

However, that was not to be. CBIP is trading at a PE of 8.1 at 2.54. MBL is trading at a much lower PE ratio of 5.3 at 99 sen now. In term of times enterprise value over EBIT, cbip is also higher at 4.0 compared to 3.2 of MBL.

So if we ignore liquidity, MBL appears to be a better investment than cbip.

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-04-01 17:13 | Report Abuse

perhaps we need to see MBL do the same thing like SKPRES where major shareholder sell down his stake to improve free float... haha

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-04-01 17:43 | Report Abuse

Oh house you may be right man. The stock has no liquidity. There is no coverage from any analyst. Kenanga also never follow. Also no show in apa ini "equity tracker". No wonder never go up lah. If you have bought it sure go to Holland liow. But wait let me look at its past return.

MBL 0.99 29/03/2013
Period 2-week 6-month 1 year 2-year 3 year
Price 0.975 1.02 0.81 0.65 0.65
Return of stock 1.5% -2.9% 22.2% 52.3% 52.3%
CAR 49% -5.8% 22.2% 23.4% 15.1%

Hey house not bad at all man. Its CAR twice that of the market return man for the last 1, 2 and 3-year return. Who said stock with no liquidity sure go to Holland one?

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-04-01 17:49 | Report Abuse

haha... true true.... need to keep for long term...

Posted by Joshua Lee > 2013-04-02 21:37 | Report Abuse

KC, do you think MBL would likely be able to sustain its good (or very good) performance of the past few years? I somehow think that the past few years' performance were boosted very much by the high production and price of palm oil; and as we are seeing since sometime last year, this industry is going through a bad spell and will continue to be cyclical.

Posted by gark > 2013-04-02 21:48 | Report Abuse

Joshua, how about the 200 to 300 k ha planted since 2009 when the price is good and will be maturing gradually now? Leave them to rot or buy machine to process them? What do you think? A lot of people does not know palm oil plantation have a 3 year lag time.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-04-02 22:29 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-04-03 04:48 | Report Abuse

Joshua, I personally don't know if MBL can sustain its excellent performance in the future. I am no Paul the Octopus. I always say I can't predict any share price. I bought MBL based on its recent past performance and its very low market valuation now. There is plenty of margin of safety for me. Palm oil industry is no doubt cyclical. But what do you think of gark's comment following yours? Isn't that logical? What about Ooi's comment that plantation index had bottom up, it is bullish now. I am not saying that their statements are definitely right.

Posted by aunloke > 2013-04-03 08:29 | Report Abuse

to buy or not to buy ? it is easy. if after giving 30% or more discount for the company performance and the return is still more than the cost of finance, the purchase is profitable, and if using our own cash the return must be more than 3.5% that is the safe return we can get from FD.

Posted by aunloke > 2013-04-03 08:40 | Report Abuse

BTW, this is the concept of ROIC-WACC must be positive in order to be profitable in any deal.

Posted by Joshua Lee > 2013-04-03 20:09 | Report Abuse

KC, Gark & Ooi, thanks a lot for your respective views.

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-04-04 10:51 | Report Abuse

cool website to do fundamental scanning on KLSE stocks
http://klse.neobie.net/quote.php

already found a few gems from here

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-04-04 14:24 | Report Abuse

Dear all,

I use annual report for 31/12/2012.

KSL

Total Net Profit years = 10/10
Total Positive Operating Cash Flow years = 9/10
Total Dividend Payout years = 9/10
Total Positive Free Cash Flow years = 4/10

10 years Average Turnover = 255,442
31/12/2012 (Latest)= 404,431
Growth = 58.3%
10 years Average Net Profit = 92,069
31/12/2012 (Latest)= 131,580
Growth = 42.9%

EPS/2010/2011/2012
32.0/21.5/34.1
Growth = 58.37%
ROE/2010/2011/2012
13.8/8.78/12.2
Growth = 38.95%
NTA/2010/2011/2012
2.51/2.46/2.79
Growth = 13.41

Method 1 (Warren)
EPS = 34.1
g = 10% growth
Y = 3.5
IV=(EPS*(8.5+2g)*4.4)/Y
IV = 3.73
Current price = 2.13
Margin of safety = 42.9%

Method 2
IV=ROE/Rr*NTA
ROE = 12.2%
Rr = 10%
NTA = 2.79
IV = 3.40
Margin of safety = 37.4%

The price is ranging from 3.40 to 3.73, margin of safety is ranging from 37.4% to 42.9%.

Margin of safety looks attractive to me.

Please note that technical chart for KSL is showing an up trending stock now. Higher high and higher low is a sign of an up trending stock.

Please comment.

Thank you.

Ooi

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-04-05 14:40 | Report Abuse

Ooi, great post. All good. I used the EPV method as discussed before and the intrinsic value obtained doesn't differ much. I agree KSL is a good investment.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-04-06 15:47 | Report Abuse

Posted by houseofordos > Apr 4, 2013 10:51 AM | Report Abuse
cool website to do fundamental scanning on KLSE stocks
http://klse.neobie.net/quote.php
already found a few gems from here

house, why not discuss the gems you have found here?

Posted by iafx > 2013-04-06 15:52 | Report Abuse

yeah... new promotion coming soon!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-04-06 15:58 | Report Abuse

Oh yeah, most good people in i3 site here share what they have. All religions teach their followers like that one. Why you said "promotion" ah? So narrow minded one meh? Hey by the way, you have copied a lot of my postings recently. Found anything to attack already or not? Still haven't found any ah? Aiseh!