great links there brother iafx, i've seen that reuters before but don't know what should be clicked. thanks ... too many numbers , i've a degree in mathematics, but i hate this, so many numbers , that need to be studied. , and mr kcchongnz u stated that: --------------- equity = Assets - Liabilities.
With assets overvalued, it means equity will be bigger. As ROE=NI/Equity,
Hence ROE will be smaller, hence not looked better. ---------------------- u're refering to mbl or cbip? and if roe looked small because assets is overvalued , doesn't that mean the share is also overvalued? -------------------------- and about mbl ...i've looked at it before , low pe , but low volume and people don't like it, don't know why...so ignore it before, the nta stated in its last quarter is 0.89 ...then in rhbinvest is 0.98...don't know which is right...i'm a small trader ...i cannot be trapped by illiquid counter. but announcement on this counter was that it paid RM24,750,000 to overtake one of its subsidiary BY CASH... i don't know what is mean by cash... cash pakai duit sendirikah atau duit pinjam bank kah, if it was by its own money...this company is quite rich with cash isn't it? or is it the last of it? ------------------------------- one i called brother because i think he's a young man one i called mr because i think he's a senior -------- tq both ... by the way ehmmmm...promote ni ye ... mkland beli beli beli , others property company are buying lands... mkland is selling lands, beli beli , one of the parcel of a land ... i calculate in the mkland forum to be rm 3.6 billions...mr kcchongnz, am i right about this...just parcel of land around 261 acres in sg buloh...am i wrong?
Kcchongnz comparing cbip vs mbl, i prefer cbip because of patent and tax free status. Kernal crushing plant is relatively smaller than palm oil mill and also less in number. Most plantation will have 2 to 3 palm oil mill for every kernal plant. However competition in the kernal plant is considerably less.
i thought with degree in mathematics , i can be rich in bursa ... i was absolutely wrong...i get burnt, (hampir bangkrap in 2007),... because bursa is not just about numbers...that's why i don't count much with numbers too deeply like u all
Posted by anbz > Mar 30, 2013 09:55 PM | Report Abuse great links there brother iafx, i've seen that reuters before but don't know what should be clicked. thanks ... too many numbers , i've a degree in mathematics, but i hate this, so many numbers , that need to be studied.
ME: WHAT THE HELL IS THIS LINK FOR? DO WHAT WITH IT? FIND "REPORTS" OF CAGR? , and mr kcchongnz u stated that: --------------- equity = Assets - Liabilities.
With assets overvalued, it means equity will be bigger. As ROE=NI/Equity,
Hence ROE will be smaller, hence not looked better. ---------------------- u're refering to mbl or cbip? and if roe looked small because assets is overvalued , doesn't that mean the share is also overvalued?
ME; EQUITY=ASSETS-LIABILITIES, THAT IS THE VERY BASIC OF A BALANCE SHEET NECESSARY TO KNOW ABOUT THE FINANCIAL POSITION OF A COMPANY. IF YOU WANT TO INVEST IN THE STOCK MARKET, YOU MUST KNOW THIS. IT IS NOT ABOUT CBIP NOR MBL.
ROE IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT METRICS OF THE EFFICIENCY OF THE OPERATION OF A COMPANY. ROE=NI/EQUITY AND THERE ARE AT LEAST THREE WAYS OF ROE IS COMPUTED; ONE USING THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR EQUITY, ONE AT THE END OF THE YEAR, BUT THE MOST "THEORITICALLY CORRECT" ONE SHOULD BE USING THE AVERAGE OF THE TWO. -------------------------- and about mbl ...i've looked at it before , low pe , but low volume and people don't like it, don't know why...so ignore it before, the nta stated in its last quarter is 0.89 ...then in rhbinvest is 0.98...don't know which is right...i'm a small trader ...i cannot be trapped by illiquid counter. but announcement on this counter was that it paid RM24,750,000 to overtake one of its subsidiary BY CASH... i don't know what is mean by cash... cash pakai duit sendirikah atau duit pinjam bank kah, if it was by its own money...this company is quite rich with cash isn't it? or is it the last of it?
ME: AGAIN, LISTEN, LISTEN, LISTEN. DON'T DO TRADING. IT IS NOT SUITABLE FOR YOU. IT IS ESPECIALLY NOT SUITABLE FOR A RETAIL STOCK PLAYER. YOU CANNOT BEAT THOSE INSIDERS, MANIPULATORS AND THOSE VERY GOOD IN TA. STOCK NO LIQUIDITY? INVESTING, UNLIKE TRADING AND PUNTING, IS NOT ABOUT LIQUIDITY OF STOCK. I HAVE PROVIDED SO MANY EXAMPLES OF LONG AND SHORT TERM RETURNS OF NOT LIQUID STOCKS. THE RETURNS ARE GOOD WHEN COMPARED WITH THE MARKET RETURN. PURCHASE SOMETHING WITH CASH MEANS USING CASH, NO BORROWINGS, NO ISSUING SHARES ETC. ------------------------------- one i called brother because i think he's a young man one i called mr because i think he's a senior
ME; DO YOU THINK THE SENIOR IS BETTER IN FUNDAMENTALS OF INVESTING AND YOUR BROTHER. SERIOUSLY YOUR "BROTHER" KNOWS NUTS ABOUT INVESTING. IT IS OK IF ONE DOESN'T KNOW. NOBODY KNOWS EVERYTHING. BUT LOOK HOW HE REPEATEDLY MAKING A BLOODY FOOL OF HIMSELF EVERYWHERE. WELL, IT IS UP TO YOU WHETHER YOU WANT TO LISTEN TO YOUR BROTHER, OR YOUR SENIOR. -------- tq both ... by the way ehmmmm...promote ni ye ... mkland beli beli beli , others property company are buying lands... mkland is selling lands, beli beli , one of the parcel of a land ... i calculate in the mkland forum to be rm 3.6 billions...mr kcchongnz, am i right about this...just parcel of land around 261 acres in sg buloh...am i wrong?
ME; I HAVE WRITTEN ABOUT MKLAND A COUPLE OF TIMES. ITS FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE HAS NOT BEEN GOOD FOR MANY YEARS ALREADY. I DON'T KNOW ABOUT THAT LAND YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT. OK LAH BUT NOTHING GREAT IN MY OPINION. THE CREDIBILITY OF THE MANAGEMENT TO ME IS MORE IMPORTANT. THERE ARE SO MANY OTHER BETTER PROPERTY COMPANIES. I DON'T KNOW ABOUT ITS SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE THOUGH.
Posted by anbz > Mar 30, 2013 11:01 PM | Report Abuse i thought with degree in mathematics , i can be rich in bursa ... i was absolutely wrong...i get burnt, (hampir bangkrap in 2007),... because bursa is not just about numbers...that's why i don't count much with numbers too deeply like u all
ME: SEE I TOLD YOU NOT TO GAMBLE? I NOW YOU DON'T LIKE I SAY YOU GAMBLE, BUT GOOD MEDICINE NEVER TASTE SWEET. IF YOU HAVE FOLLOW THOSE NUMBERS; I MEAN LOOK AT THE BUSINESS OF A COMPANY, ITS OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCIES, FINANCIAL HEALTH, CASH FLOWS ETC; AND BUY THE STOCK AT A DISCOUNT TO ITS INTRINSIC VALUE, YOU WILL NEVER GET BURNT AND GO TO HOLLAND. LOOK AT THOSE GOOD STOCKS, EVEN IF YOU BOUGHT THEM AT THE PEAK IN EARLY 2008 AND PLUNGE DUE TO THE SUBLIME CRISIS, MOST OF THEM WOULD HAVE RECOVERED AND EVEN SCALE NEW HIGH IN SHARE PRICE.
YES, IT IS NOT ALL ABOUT NUMBERS, BUT THEY ARE IMPORTANT, DEPENDING WHICH NUMBERS YOU ARE PAYING ATTENTION TO.
house, i think MBL is berry berry interesting. Shall we look at it in more details? gark and anyone else?
Yeah CBIP has more established record and probably better business. But i always have this notion that a better company may not be a better investment. A not so great business may be a better investment depending on the orice you pay. Of course the not-so-good business must also be good also.
1. Good margins on products (kernel equipment) gross margin nearly 50%, net margin about 20%. This shows they have little competitors. Sales size remain a fraction of CBIP, due to less kernel plant than palm oil mill. 2. Net cash of 37 million, zero debt.Very little capex, very little depreciation, so everything is pure cashflow. pay 50% of earning as dividend, current rate about 7-8% yield. Pay VERY low tax due to pioneer status (for kernel crushing technology) similar to CBIP. 3. Selling at PE 5.5x, Reasonable profit growth > 10% cagr.The owners are buying a whole load of shares. Market is illiquid, micro cap, so will not attract institutional players. 4. Recently proposed to acquire 1,500 acres of plantation land in Sokor, Kelantan for 24 million. Price 16k/acre is of fair value as the oil palm are fully planted and newly matured. The plantation is profitable and is expected to contribute about 100-200k p.a. to MBL profit. 5. Interestingly 80% of sales is to outside of malaysia. Means he brand has captured international market. Biggest customer out of Malaysia is in Indonesia, Papua and Columbia.
Kcchong got an interesting arbitage play for you. Time com is going to distribute 0.24 shares of digi for every 1 share held. The stock now is worth RM4/share and will distribute RM1/share worth of digi stock as script dividend. The business is recently doing great and has turn around after may years of losses. However there is no guarantee the stock will not fall significantly after the digi shares distribution.
gark, with the closing price of digi last Friday at 4.63, the share dividend amount to RM1.11 per share. Found the pants (wonderful). But why didn't you tell me earlier, I mean before the announcement of this share dividend in December last year? No good friend lah you. Time Dotcom's share price has run up about 50 sen already oh from then.
But seriously, like declaring a cash dividend, the money is from the cash (in this case the shares of Digi) it holds in its balance sheet. What is the big effect? It is only the shareholders think oh now got distribution of money, must buy buy buy and chase up Time Dotcom's share price. Do you notice that the share price of Digi has dropped from a high of 5.35 a couples of months ago? Shareholders better get the share dividend asap. if not don't know whether digi's share price will further drop before the share dividend is distributed.
My personal opinion is if I want to invest in Time Dotcom, I will do so if there is a good future of its business (not the share dividend); and that the price is at a good discount to the expected future cash flows. Don't know much of Time Dotcom but from remembering an article or two about Time Dotcom, its future may be bright. This is not an arbitrage play.
Ooi, you got the right methods of valuation using Graham's Growth Model and the simple ROE. More important are the data and assumptions. Again in investment, we can't do anything without assumptions (just to preempt those unnecessary destructive criticisms).
If you are interested in CBIP and MBL, use their latest results ending 31/12/2012. Rr, like what house mentioned before, as MBL is not as established as CBIP, maybe one should use a higher Rr. Again no right or wrong because the balance sheet of MBL is great too and may warrant a low Rr of 10% like what you use. Since the growth rate of MBL is so high, why do you use 5% only, a growth in the next 5-7 years? Being conservative? Again no right of wrong here. But the difference in value is huge.
CBIP, you must exclude the extra-ordinary gain from the earnings, like sale of CBIP's plantation. They are one tine off event. Won't repeat. So is the ROE.
So do you see the art of valuation now? But in my opinion, if one use conservative assumptions and still get high margin of safety, the stock may offer a good opportunity to invest in.
Now I realized that the growth portion is small. for example, if the growth is 10%, 2*g is only 0.2, as compared to 8.5. That is why the figure doesn't change much when you alter the growth rate. This could mean that Graham doesn't place too much emphasize on growth, which is a forecast figure in the future. Just guessing.
Incidentally, the figure 8.5 is the PE ratio Graham used for all stocks; or if you flip it around, it is the earnings yield of about 12% which was Graham's desire.
Kcchongnz, what i mean to saythier bussiness looks good at rm 4, so the script divvy ia bonus. Currently selling at high pe but have very good growth rate. Virtual monopoly in the country internet backbone. Big big moat there....
gark, yeah I think I read about it. Time dotcom may have good future and prospect. But again this is all because of its political connection, am i right?
Looks like excellent margin of safety from mbl. Just too see if the profit is sustainable. Just noticed that they are not 100% reliant on palm oil. They do sell a small but increasing percentage of thier equipment to copra and jathropa. Bad thing is if they lose thier pioneer status,thier earnings will fall as they get taxed.
Both of you house and gark posted excellent financial and non-financial of MBL. house, your EPV valuation is good. You quick to put that in your own spreadsheet already. gark 12.00noon post on MBL is excellent too. Some more Ooi, a technical analysis expert also did well in fundamentals. Very good discussions here.
i noticed , gark u have such enormous knowledge when u talked about a stock counter...where the hell u got all these information?...very2 amazed by your detailed info that most of us don't have a single clue
kc, the 21.9% dividend yield for CBIP is one off... I dont expect it to be that high in the coming years as they need to reserve cash for their planting activities. MBL has no immediate huge capex need so i expect their dividend payout will be quite consistent..
What is MEV/EBIT ? what does this tell us ROIC ? Reterun on invested capital ? what is that ?
i found this in 2009 annual report. tax exempt to end by 2016
MBLT has been granted pioneer status by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry of Malaysia under the Promotion of Investments Act, 1986 for the manufacture of automated kernel crushing plant and related parts. With the pioneer status, 100% of the statutory business income of MBLT will be exempted from income tax for ten (10) years from 2006 (the first year in which MBLT has statutory business income
Anbz, to get full info you need to do proper research. I am sure all the guys here is doing their homework and not pluck info out of thin air. Each of them spend some time to read, gather anssummarise the info.
Read their quarterly repot, annual report and announcement on bursa. You can do it too,all info is public knowledge.
house, MEV is the abbreviation i used for the market enterprise value. It exclude those excess cash and other investment which is not part of the ordinary business of a company ("ordinary business" emphasized here again). It means these things can just be distributed to shareholders without affecting its ordinary business. So
MEV/Ebit is a measure like P/E but it is more appropriate to compare two companies with different cash position and capital structures.
Similarly for return on invested capital. These you can Google and find the explanations and why ROIC may be a better comparison between companies because of the difference in capital structures.
Comparing MBL and CBIP You can see that the margins of MBL is higher and hence its ROE. ROIC of MBL is fantastic at 36%, more than 3 times the cost of capital.
Actually both companies have done very ell last year with the high ROE and ROIC. MBL is better than cbip. With that you would expect MBL to have a higher valuation. We will ignore for the time being that cbip is a more established and bigger company.
However, that was not to be. CBIP is trading at a PE of 8.1 at 2.54. MBL is trading at a much lower PE ratio of 5.3 at 99 sen now. In term of times enterprise value over EBIT, cbip is also higher at 4.0 compared to 3.2 of MBL.
So if we ignore liquidity, MBL appears to be a better investment than cbip.
Oh house you may be right man. The stock has no liquidity. There is no coverage from any analyst. Kenanga also never follow. Also no show in apa ini "equity tracker". No wonder never go up lah. If you have bought it sure go to Holland liow. But wait let me look at its past return.
MBL 0.99 29/03/2013 Period 2-week 6-month 1 year 2-year 3 year Price 0.975 1.02 0.81 0.65 0.65 Return of stock 1.5% -2.9% 22.2% 52.3% 52.3% CAR 49% -5.8% 22.2% 23.4% 15.1%
Hey house not bad at all man. Its CAR twice that of the market return man for the last 1, 2 and 3-year return. Who said stock with no liquidity sure go to Holland one?
KC, do you think MBL would likely be able to sustain its good (or very good) performance of the past few years? I somehow think that the past few years' performance were boosted very much by the high production and price of palm oil; and as we are seeing since sometime last year, this industry is going through a bad spell and will continue to be cyclical.
Joshua, how about the 200 to 300 k ha planted since 2009 when the price is good and will be maturing gradually now? Leave them to rot or buy machine to process them? What do you think? A lot of people does not know palm oil plantation have a 3 year lag time.
Joshua, I personally don't know if MBL can sustain its excellent performance in the future. I am no Paul the Octopus. I always say I can't predict any share price. I bought MBL based on its recent past performance and its very low market valuation now. There is plenty of margin of safety for me. Palm oil industry is no doubt cyclical. But what do you think of gark's comment following yours? Isn't that logical? What about Ooi's comment that plantation index had bottom up, it is bullish now. I am not saying that their statements are definitely right.
to buy or not to buy ? it is easy. if after giving 30% or more discount for the company performance and the return is still more than the cost of finance, the purchase is profitable, and if using our own cash the return must be more than 3.5% that is the safe return we can get from FD.
Total Net Profit years = 10/10 Total Positive Operating Cash Flow years = 9/10 Total Dividend Payout years = 9/10 Total Positive Free Cash Flow years = 4/10
10 years Average Turnover = 255,442 31/12/2012 (Latest)= 404,431 Growth = 58.3% 10 years Average Net Profit = 92,069 31/12/2012 (Latest)= 131,580 Growth = 42.9%
Ooi, great post. All good. I used the EPV method as discussed before and the intrinsic value obtained doesn't differ much. I agree KSL is a good investment.
Posted by houseofordos > Apr 4, 2013 10:51 AM | Report Abuse cool website to do fundamental scanning on KLSE stocks http://klse.neobie.net/quote.php already found a few gems from here
house, why not discuss the gems you have found here?
Oh yeah, most good people in i3 site here share what they have. All religions teach their followers like that one. Why you said "promotion" ah? So narrow minded one meh? Hey by the way, you have copied a lot of my postings recently. Found anything to attack already or not? Still haven't found any ah? Aiseh!
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Posted by anbz > 2013-03-30 21:55 | Report Abuse
great links there brother iafx, i've seen that reuters before but don't know what should be clicked. thanks ... too many numbers , i've a degree in mathematics, but i hate this, so many numbers , that need to be studied.
,
and mr kcchongnz u stated that:
---------------
equity = Assets - Liabilities.
With assets overvalued, it means equity will be bigger. As ROE=NI/Equity,
Hence ROE will be smaller, hence not looked better.
----------------------
u're refering to mbl or cbip? and
if roe looked small because assets is overvalued , doesn't that mean the share is also overvalued?
--------------------------
and about mbl ...i've looked at it before , low pe , but low volume and people don't like it, don't know why...so ignore it before, the nta stated in its last quarter is 0.89 ...then in rhbinvest is 0.98...don't know which is right...i'm a small trader ...i cannot be trapped by illiquid counter. but announcement on this counter was that it paid RM24,750,000 to overtake one of its subsidiary BY CASH... i don't know what is mean by cash...
cash pakai duit sendirikah atau duit pinjam bank kah, if it was by its own money...this company is quite rich with cash isn't it? or is it the last of it?
-------------------------------
one i called brother because i think he's a young man
one i called mr because i think he's a senior
--------
tq both ... by the way ehmmmm...promote ni ye ... mkland beli beli beli , others property company are buying lands... mkland is selling lands, beli beli , one of the parcel of a land ... i calculate in the mkland forum to be rm 3.6 billions...mr kcchongnz, am i right about this...just parcel of land around 261 acres in sg buloh...am i wrong?