Posted by nokenzo > 2013-12-24 02:24 | Report Abuse

Hi Mr BSNg, just got the formula of Terminal FCF, $=CFn(1+g)/(R-g).

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-12-24 05:57 | Report Abuse

Hi nokenzo : pls try to use 69,794 as your base FCF to check if you can get Terminal FCF 1,310,701.

I got 69,794 from Table 2.

Table 2: Cash flows of Kfima 
Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Average

CFFO 52,589 131,052 137,909 114,196 56,521 98,453

Capex -49,513 -26,434 -24,022 -19,500 -23,826 -28,659

FCF 3,076 104,618 113,887 94,696 32,695 69,794

FCF/Revenue 0.60% 22.20% 26.40% 23.00% 8.90% 16%

FCF/IC 0.60% 25.80% 29.10% 27.70% 9.40% 19%

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-12-24 06:03 | Report Abuse

Hi nokenzo : if use your number 70,058 as base FCF, I got terminal FCF =1,315,659. PV FCF= 1,122,242.


add cash =272200
less current debt=-18500
Total PV FCF =1,375,942
less minority inetrest=-354,993
Total PV FCFE =1,020,949
FCF/share=IV = 3.78
MOS @1.96 = 48%

Do you get the same numbers ?

03:45am, do you live outside Malaysia ?

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-12-24 06:05 | Report Abuse

You can get Table 2 by double clicking the Title "Blog: Stock Pick Challenge - [KFIMA] by kcchongnz"

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-12-24 06:18 | Report Abuse

Hi kokenzo : I were a chemistry student, very dumb too. I spent many days in performing reverse engineering on the numbers by KC Chong to understand DCFA. I were shy to simply ask question, thus I spent lot of hours in reading at Investopedia.com and annual reports to map his numbers. Now I have little(not much and not validated) understanding on his numbers. Please feel free to ask whatever questions, let us learn together.

Happy learning.

Posted by nokenzo > 2013-12-24 09:18 | Report Abuse

Thank you very much, Mr BS Ng. Shall try to sort out later after office. I live in Kedah, usually wake up early to read mail and quite computer illiterate. Worst, now trying to understand finance! Me, too, because of KC, I learned to read AR. You are much better than me, hope to learn from you too.
Ecstasy, when I got certain figure right as stated by KC. This reminded me of my student time, I was really on top of the world when I can solve a maths equation.
Yes, happy learning together.

Posted by nokenzo > 2013-12-25 11:37 | Report Abuse

Hi Mr BS Ng, Merry Christmas, while most of us are enjoying the holiday, I am still struggling with the 'equation'. Starting from CFFO, I found certain discrepancy, could you advise when you are free?
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
nokenzo CFFO 52,898 131,051 137,909 114,196 56,521 62,207
Capex -49,659 -26,434 -24,022 -18,412 -23,826 -30,433
FCF 3,239 104,617 113,887 95,784 32,695 31,774


KC ChongCFFO 52,589 131,052 137,909 114,196 56,521 98,453
Capex -49,513 -26,434 -24,022 -19,500 -23,826 -28,659
FCF 3,076 104,618 113,887 94,696 32,695 69,794

BS Ng FCF 73,284 76,948 80,795 84,835 89,077

Posted by nokenzo > 2013-12-25 11:39 | Report Abuse

Hi Mr BS Ng, are you from Penang island? If so, do you go jogging in Botanical garden?

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-12-25 14:28 | Report Abuse

Hi Nokenzo : I did not calculate FCFO of the last 5 years and the average. I just used the numbers provided by KC Chong as Table #2.

My numbers of FCF {base FCF * (1+growth%)} =73,284, 76,948 80,795 84,835 89,077

Yr1=69794*(1+5%)=73,284,
Yr2=73,284*(1+5%)=76,948,
Yr3=76,948*(1+5%)=80,795
Yr4=80,795*(1+5%)=84,835
Yr5=84,835*(1+5%)=89,077
Terminal FCF= CFn(1+g%)/(R%-g%)=89,077*(1+3%)/(10%-3%)= 1,399,778

FV FCF= FCFF1 / (1 + WACC)^1 + FCFF2 / (1 + WACC)^2 + ... + FCFFn / (1 + WACC)^n

Yr1=73,284/(1+10%)^1+Yr2=76,948/(1+10%)^2+yr3+yr4+yr5+Yr Terminal= 1,399,778/(1+10%)^5=1,118,013.

Good Luck.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-12-25 14:39 | Report Abuse

The base FCF I used for the estimation of future FCF is the average of the FCF of last 5 years, ie 69794.

You notice last year's FCF is very usually low at about 3m only. The FCF before that are much higher. For example 2012 FCF is 105m, 2011 114m etc. Last year there was a build up of inventories and receivables which were unusual. Anyway I have checked the first quarter 2014 cash flow and most receivables have collected and inventories reduced. So it appears to be ok.

So I think the average 5-year FCF used as the base is conservative enough.

Posted by anbz > 2013-12-26 01:22 | Report Abuse

don't buy kfima...it's too expensive...look...another stock recommended

by kcchong...is pmcorp...only 21.5 cents...ask him why he recommends

lousy counters such as pmcorp..hahaha

Posted by anbz > 2013-12-26 01:28 | Report Abuse

ask him to make future FCF which must be the average of the FCF of last 5 years for pmcorps...u'll be surprised....ripley's believe or not..he will make u believe...lol

Posted by fatinvest > 2013-12-26 01:30 | Report Abuse

Go go go! Go to the company recommended by anbz, the beautiful one of it's kind Nova MSC, that superstar that should reach RM1.20 from RM0.06 before the UMNO general assembly in 2013 ( November 2013???)
Or did you mean 2023?
2033?
2043?
2053?

Posted by anbz > 2013-12-26 01:34 | Report Abuse

bsnpg, tan kw and many more are all his member of gang...jcool call them jcw gang...or is it jwc gang? can't remember

he also recommends fibon before...and they goreng it well..now look at fibon...what has happened???!!!

he and some of his gang also goreng pmcorp..and now what has happened?!!!

well his team are very powerful and have significant influences on their days...

but he likes to mix craps and truth

Posted by anbz > 2013-12-26 01:40 | Report Abuse

woe another member of the gang here..i wish i have loyal supporters like u

at least my recommended shares are not in ruin compared to fibon and pmcorp

---
one thing they doesn't move is because i don't have ability to influence people like kcchong

if not..some of mine would also shoot up...and fatin...i also recommended glomac when it was 77 cents...and pw-con when it was 68 cents

they are moving up u know...but if i have the ability to influence or con people like kc...i may made my case...lol

Posted by fatinvest > 2013-12-26 02:08 | Report Abuse

But did KC Chong inform his kakis that he had sold out PMCorp and Fibon after these shares have risen???
Did he???????
But did you tell people that all your Nove story was bullshit, and that people should not take your recommendation seriously???
Did you???

Posted by fatinvest > 2013-12-26 02:11 | Report Abuse

And KC got his influence not by spamming , like what you did!
He got his following because people know he is genuine, he knows his stuff, he is GOOD!
Not like you, anbz!
Not you!

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-12-26 06:39 | Report Abuse

fatinvest : 不错呀！在I3塗塗写写的我竟然可以被看成炒家。如果说我有炒家的财务能力，我真的不介意成为炒家。那种日子一定会超爽，因为股票本来就是我最大的兴趣嘛！

送给你与家人温馨的祝福-“聖誕快乐”+”新年快乐”

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-12-26 06:58 | Report Abuse

fatinvest : 有时候让没有逻辑与不講道理赢，未尝不是件好事。至少可以把精力时间用在更有用之处。你同意吗?

Posted by fatinvest > 2013-12-26 08:54 | Report Abuse

bsngpg: 哈哈， 圣诞快乐，新年进步.
本不想理这人，可是见他敢敢拿KC开刀， 就beh tahan, 非撩一撩他不可。
KC 有整串赚钱的counter, 而此仁兄却有整串带人去荷兰的counter，还大言不惭。。。
跳樑小丑一名。。。

Posted by Ntpboon > 2013-12-26 10:28 | Report Abuse

输与赢在股市见真章，羡慕和嫉妒无济于事。哈哈！

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-12-26 10:44 | Report Abuse

Fatinvest:
当我做不成成龙，我就说成龙是在耍㺅子戏、

当我沒金城武靓仔，那是金城武整容、

当我打不过林丹，那一定是中国在玩不公平手段、派出太外高手、

56年後，我还是没有競爭力，那不是我笨，而是你们搶走我的机会，雖然批不批你做生意的执照的权力全集中在我手上。

因为我没本事与你一样在股市赚钱，那也不是我笨，而是你骗人、

这就是我们马氏的本色，你吹昧！

Posted by fatinvest > 2013-12-26 11:07 | Report Abuse

没法子，都是别人的错。

当我问他有关Nova那股票时，他说只能怪他没KC那样的影响力，所以炒不起来（PM Corp thread)...
哇哈哈，还不知道我老同学在此人眼中是“大炒家”。。

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-12-26 12:30 | Report Abuse

Posted by anbz > Dec 26, 2013 01:22 AM | Report Abuse
don't buy kfima...it's too expensive...look...another stock recommended
by kcchong...is pmcorp...only 21.5 cents...ask him why he recommends
lousy counters such as pmcorp..hahaha

I NEVER RECOMMEND ANYBODY TO BUY KFIMA, HAVE I? IF I CAN REMEMBER, I TALKED ABOUT THE BUSINESS OF KFIMA, HOW IS ITS OPERATING PERFORMANCE,CASH FLOWS AND BALANCE SHEET. I ALSO TRIED VALUING KFIMA, AND COMPARED WITH ITS PRICE. THOSE WERE WHAT I HAVE DONE. DID I SAY ANBZ, YOU MUST BUY KFIMA, GUARANTEE YOU MAKE MONEY ONE?

I DIDN'T ASK PEOPLE TO BUY BECAUSE I KNOW SOMETHING YOU DON'T KNOW, IE I CAN BE WRONG IN MY ANALYSIS, MARKET MAY NOT AGREE WITH MY ANALYSIS, THE FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN ETC.

NOW YOU SPECIFICALLY RECOMMEND PEOPLE NOT TO BUY KFIMA. CAN SHARE WITH US WHY DO YOU THINK SO? WHY EXPENSIVE? WHAT METRICS DO YOU USE? HEY YOU ARE A MATHS GRADUATE, AREN'T YOU? WE ALL MATHEMATICS INCLINED PEOPLE LIKE TO USE NUMBERS, DON'T YOU?

DID I RECOMMEND PEOPLE TO BUY PMCORP? I REMEMBER I JUST DID A GRAHAM NET-NET VALUATION OF PMCORP AND MENTIONED THAT ITS CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENT IS CLOSE TO ITS SHARE PRICE. THAT WAS ALL I DID. I ALSO MENTIONED THAT ITS CHOCOLATE BUSINESS IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF IT IS GOING TO BE IMPRESSIVE IN THE FUTURE, ALL BASED ON WHAT I SAW IN THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS. WHERE DID I RECOMMEND YOU TO BUY PMCORP?

PMCORP IS A LOUSY COUNTER? DID I ACTUALLY TALKED ABOUT "COUNTER"? MOST OF THE TIME I TALKED ABOUT BUSINESS. THERE IS A BUSINESS BEHIND ALL STOCKS.

Posted by anbz > Dec 26, 2013 01:28 AM | Report Abuse

ask him to make future FCF which must be the average of the FCF of last 5 years for pmcorps...u'll be surprised....ripley's believe or not..he will make u believe...lol

DID I PROJECT THE FUTURE FREE CASH FLOWS OF PMCORP WHEN I DID THE GRAHAM NET-NET VALUATION? DO YOU KNOW WHEN SHOULD WE USE ASSET-BASED AND EARNINGS-BASED VALUATION MODEL TO GET THE INTRINSIC VALUE OF A COMPANY? BY THE WAY, DO YOU KNOW WHAT INTRINSIC VALUE IS? WHAT IS MARGIN OF SAFETY ETC? I GUESS NOT. ALL YOUR POSTS ARE ABOUT SHARE PRICES, WHICH DAY WHAT PRICE, GORENG THIS, GORENG THAT.

YOUNG MAN, IF YOU CONTINUE DOING THIS, YOU GOT NO FUTURE IN YOUR INVESTING EXPERIENCE. TRUST ME.

Posted by nokenzo > 2013-12-26 15:44 | Report Abuse

This chap should be ignored. His slanderous remark is to belittle both of you, Mr KC and BS. Both of you still command high respect from all your followers, including me. No amount of slandering can affect my admiration for both of you. Please ignore him. Both of you have done a great job. Salute you.

Posted by nokenzo > 2013-12-26 17:22 | Report Abuse

Hi Mr BS Ng and KC Chong, thank you very much. I have finally gotten the answer of FCF per share. Pardon the brain of biology student, can only record and cannot reason. I was banging on historical FCF and not the FV FCF.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-12-26 17:29 | Report Abuse

Hi nokenzo : CONGRATULATION!

I am just few months ahead you in chatting and learning from KC Chong and many others in I3. One of the surest things is that I am few notches behind him. So please do not making me uneasy by putting my name side by side with his except if you are talking about our good intention on this forum.

Another one which you can try on DCFA is Prestariang by KC too. Prestariang is a good counter. I want to buy it at a lower price as so how, I have unconsciously over invested lately. I am now queuing to let go some counters.

送给你与家人温馨的祝福-“聖誕快乐”+”新年快乐”

Posted by nokenzo > 2013-12-26 18:06 | Report Abuse

Thank you Mr BS Ng, shall try Prestariang. Merry Christmas and happy new year to you and family too.

Posted by fatinvest > 2013-12-26 18:20 | Report Abuse

KC is so kind hearted....

Posted by nokenzo > 2013-12-27 06:32 | Report Abuse

Hi Mr KC, how do you get 33m reduction in receivables in Q1 2014 comparing to 2013 receivables? Do you also include other receivables also as in the AR and quarterly report?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-12-27 08:03 | Report Abuse

Posted by nokenzo > Dec 27, 2013 06:32 AM | Report Abuse

Hi Mr KC, how do you get 33m reduction in receivables in Q1 2014 comparing to 2013 receivables? Do you also include other receivables also as in the AR and quarterly report?

That 33m is shown in the statement of "cash flow from operating activities" in the first quarter 2014 results. It includes all receivables.

Posted by nokenzo > 2013-12-27 08:24 | Report Abuse

Thanks, KC.

Posted by heavyth > 2013-12-27 11:23 | Report Abuse

kcchong what is your analysis for KFIMA for year 2014 ???

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-12-29 09:57 | Report Abuse

Hi Nokenzo: pls do not miss thread "Shall we avoid risks? - kcchongnz". It has good discussion on CFO. I saved the thread but have not gone into it yet as on vacation.

Posted by nokenzo > 2013-12-31 18:17 | Report Abuse

Thanks for highlighting. Shall save it also.

Posted by anbz > 2013-12-31 18:19 | Report Abuse

best buy RM 1.20

Posted by nokenzo > 2014-01-01 12:33 | Report Abuse

RM1.20????, if there is another crisis!

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-01-02 14:33 | Report Abuse

KC Chong: Pls allow me to re-post the below under the relevant thread of KFima. TQ.

So what is wrong with the pick on Kumpulan Fima which lost 2.4% since a year ago? - kcchongnz, Publish date: Thu, 2 Jan 14:00

-------------------------------------------------------------------

kcchongnz has left a new comment on your portfolio "Stock Pick Challenge 2013 2H - kcchongnz":

So what is wrong with the pick on Kumpulan Fima which lost 2.4% since a year ago? Well there were two or three people in i3 who constantly picked on me for choosing this stock. However they were not able to articulate on why my Kfima pick was such a bad move, except talking nonsense, all of them.

Looking back on the selection process again, I do not see what is wrong. It was selected based on its diversified durable business in security paper printing, palm oil, bulking, food etc. It had high ROIC of 25%, a healthy balance sheet with 255m net cash, or about RM1 per share, excellent quality of earnings with consistent and abundant cash flows from operations and free cash flow. Free cash flow is more than 20% of revenue and invested capital. And most of all, at RM2.06 at that time, the earnings yield (EV/Ebit) was 27%, a great number.

Sure its earnings has dropped by about 10% the last financial year, though its revenue still went up a little. Again which company with plantation as a major earnings didn’t have their earnings reduced last year when palm oil price is depressed? Many even made losses.

Based on Kfima’s last annual financial results, ROIC has dropped to 19%, but this is still a high return of capital. And at RM1.93 now, its earning yields (EV/Ebit) of 26% is still hell of a good bargain. This is a classic case of the Magic Formula Investing Strategy of Joel Greenblatt.

Buying something for less than its value is the most dependable way to make money. Buying discount from IV and having asset price move towards its value doesn’t require serendipity; it just requires that market participants wake up to reality.

Trying to buy below value isn’t infallible, but it’s the best chance we have.

The fact that despite its great fundamentals haven’t changed but its price has gone down a little while the overall market has gone up by 14%, it is even more compelling to keep Kumpulan Fima as a major stock in my portfolio in 2014.


Posted by kcchongnz at Jan 2, 2014 01:04 PM

Posted by RickyC > 2014-01-03 11:10 | Report Abuse

Kcchongz, is there any guidance of DCF method of yours? I would like to have a clearer picture.

Posted by aunloke > 2014-01-03 11:34 | Report Abuse

I also pick KFIMA for 2014 , we all know that KFIMA is undervalued like many undervalued stocks of which many have been adjusted during 2013 with KFIMA stands out not having any improvement, logically it should make the move.

Posted by iafx > 2014-01-03 11:38 | Report Abuse

TDM better

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-01-05 17:57 | Report Abuse

I am in queue buying more KFima, unfortunately there was nobody willing to sell it to me. I will patiently wait for it. I just need few cents lower than the current close. Just want to save few hundred for dinner lah.

Posted by houseofordos > 2014-01-05 19:15 | Report Abuse

bsngpg, I jump in on Friday... this is still the highest MOS stock in my portfolio... if didn't get at cheapest nvm la... next Mon might pump in more.. I smell an uptrend coming soon....

Posted by RickyC > 2014-01-05 19:30 | Report Abuse

tq tanKW for the links. :D

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-01-05 20:17 | Report Abuse

Houseofordos: I started to q in the last few days as I smelled the uptrend too. Ha! Ha!

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-01-05 20:19 | Report Abuse

I will not fight with you. Let you complete your shopping first. I am not in hurry. Good luck

Posted by nokenzo > 2014-01-31 12:03 | Report Abuse

Hi bsngpg, wishing you a happy, healthy, harmonious and prosperous CNY. Have not read your comment in this blog for a while.

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-01-31 12:17 | Report Abuse

Hi nokenzo: 祝福你与家人新春大吉，万事如意。

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-01-31 12:20 | Report Abuse

Hi kcchong, horseofordos and all "rationale" forumers : 祝福你与家人新春大吉，万事如意。

Posted by wayneteo > 2014-02-14 11:11 | Report Abuse

Thanks for sharing