Stock Pick Challenge 2013 2H
Stock Pick Challenge - [KFIMA] by kcchongnz
Kumpulan Fima
“Value portfolio managers buy and sell judiciously, choosing today’s ugly duckling that shows the promise of becoming tomorrow’s beautiful swan.”
Kumpulan Fima has been in my original portfolio for about 4 years now. At 2.06 now, it provides me with a total return of 220%, or a compounded annual rate of return of 34%, three times above the return of KLSE a year of 10% for the last 4 years. However, for the past one year, return has been unsatisfactory with a negative return of about 8%. Should I discard this stock now? No way!
The business
Kumpulan Fima Berhad is engaged in manufacturing and trading of security and confidential documents; bulk handling and storage of liquid products and cargoes, warehousing and transportation and customs forwarding services; Oil palm Plantation and manufacturing and packaging of food products.
It has a well diversified group of businesses. I won’t say these businesses are very great but each has reasonable growth in revenue and earnings for the last 10 years. All these businesses are durable and are expected to be around for many years to come.
Quality of the business
Kfima’s revenue and net profit has been growing at 8.2% and 23% to 487m and 104m respectively for the last 10 years. In recent years, Kumpulan Fima has been buying up plantation land for its next phase of growth. The growth in revenue is unabated but just last year, earnings has slipped by 10%, due to the low price of palm oil which makes up 30% of its revenue. All divisions remain profitable.
The good quality business of Kfima is evidenced from its high gross margin of average of 43% for the last 5 years (Table 1). Net profit margin is also high at an average of 21%. This results in good 5-year average ROE of 15% and high ROIC of 22%. Retained earnings have been growing at a CAGR of 15% a year.
Kfima’s quality of earnings is excellent as shown in Table 2 below. Its CFFOs are generally about the same as net income. There is good average free cash flow, 16% and 19% (both> >5%) of revenue and invested capital respectively for the last 5 years. It is noted that last year cash flow has deteriorated. It may be still too early to tell if they will further deteriorate.
Capital allocations
Kfima has spent quite a substantial amount of money buying plantation land, new plants and equipment for its business. 143m in total was spent for the last 5 years. The capital expenses were well spent as they yield higher earnings and better cash flows the following years. Due to the better earnings and cash flows, the company has been increasing its dividend payment from 3 sen per share five years ago to 8 sen for 2013. This gives a reasonable good dividend yield of 4%, higher than the bank fixed deposit rate.
Market Valuation
With such good business and operation performance, one would expect it would not be cheap to invest in this stock. But is it so?
AT RM 2.06, Kfima is trading at 7.2 times its earnings per share of 28.6 sen for the financial year ended 31 march 2013. Note that Kfima has an excess 272m cash or cash equivalent sitting in its balance sheet, or an excess cash of RM1.00 per share. Besides it has about 100m in investment properties and interest in associates.
Its enterprise value is less than 4 times its earnings before interest and tax, far below the industry average of more than 10 times. This translate to an earnings yield of 26%, much higher than my 10% requirement.
Hence at RM2.07 a piece, kfima will remain as a second stock in my new portfolio.
Table1: Quality of Kfima’s business
| Year | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | Average |
| Gross margin | 44% | 46% | 47% | 40% | 39% | 43% |
| Net margin | 21% | 25% | 25% | 14% | 13% | 20% |
| ROE | 12.50% | 15.50% | 16.60% | 16.00% | 15.60% | 15% |
| ROIC | 19.20% | 25.30% | 25.40% | 21.10% | 18.60% | 22% |
Table 2: Cash flows of Kfima
| Year | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | Average |
| CFFO | 52,589 | 131,052 | 137,909 | 114,196 | 56,521 | 98,453 |
| Capex | -49,513 | -26,434 | -24,022 | -19,500 | -23,826 | -28,659 |
| FCF | 3,076 | 10,4618 | 113,887 | 94,696 | 32,695 | 69,794 |
| FCF/Revenue | 0.60% | 22.20% | 26.40% | 23.00% | 8.90% | 16% |
| FCF/IC | 0.60% | 25.80% | 29.10% | 27.70% | 9.40% | 19% |
Additional Comments by kcchongnz at Aug 2, 2013 07:35 AM
What is the intrinsic value of Kumpulan Fima?
Financial theory postulated by John Burr Williams in his “The theory of investment value” says that the value of a stock is worth all of the future cash flows expected to be generated by the firm, discounted by an appropriate risk-adjusted rate. This theory has since been extensively used in contemporary finance.
There are two major assumptions used in the computation for the intrinsic value, or the present value, of the expected future cash flows of a company; earnings growth rate and the discount rate. Slight deviations of the assumptions can yield a vast difference in the intrinsic value.
The discount rate is related to what is the required return by the equity and debt holders respectively; i.e. how much risk premium above the risk-free rate would be required. For most practical purpose, in contrast with the academic approach in capital asset pricing model, a risk premium applied is related to how stable the earnings and cash flow of the company and its financial health. The 10-year MGS rate at the moment is about 4%. Kumpulan Fima earnings and cash flows have been steady for the last 10 years. It has a squeaky clean balance sheet. So it would be conservative to apply a risk premium of 6% above the MGS rate, or a required return of 10% (4%+6%). Using a before-tax borrowing rate of 6% for Kfima, it weighted average cost of capital is about 9.8%. This WACC will be used as the discount rate for the valuation of the firm.
The more difficult part is the assumption of future cash flows of the company which is related to its expected growth rate. A difference in assumption of growth of 10% will yield a completely different intrinsic value of the company. For example if one assumes Kfima’s earnings will grow by 5% for the next 5 years, and 3% subsequently, its intrinsic value is RM4.10. If his assumption is 10% growth for the next 5 years, the IV is RM4.95. So which growth rate is the right one?
When I carry out the computation of IV to decide whether to invest in a company, I would prefer to use conservative assumptions in its growth rate. In Kfima’s case, how about the assumption that its business will be stagnant, and there is no further growth, not even grow with the rate o finflation? In this case I would use the Earnings Power Valuation popularized by Columbia University Professor Bruce Greenwald. For those who are interested, please refer to the following link:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/
The intrinsic value of Kfima using the EPV is RM3.36 per share as shown below.
Figures in thousands
| Revenue | 486,524 |
| Ebit, | 126,763 |
| less income tax, | -37,766 |
| EBIT after tax | 88,997 |
| Add average D&A | 21,253 |
| Less average capex | -25,917 |
| Normalized Ebit | 84,334 |
| Cost of capital, R | 0 |
| Capitalized earnings=Nor Ebit/R | 857,956 |
| Add cash | 272,236 |
| Other investments | 110,462 |
| Less debts | -18,472 |
| EPV | 1,222,182 |
| Less minority interest | -315,821 |
| EPV to common shareholders | 906,361 |
| Number of shares | 269,987 |
| EPV/share, RM | 3.36 |
So at the close of Kfima’s share price at RM2.06 on 1/8/13, it is trading at a margin of safety of 39%.
Posted by kcchongnz at Aug 30, 2013 07:29 PM
Kumpulan Fima first quarter 2014 results
Revenue and profit before tax dropped by 3.2% and 18.7% to 112.8m and 30.1m respectively. The drop was mainly due to the poorer performance of the manufacturing and especially the food division. The palm oil division surprisingly did well with an increase in revenue and PBT. Bulking division also did slightly better.
My concern about its cash flow proved to be unnecessary as this quarter saw its receivables reduced by 33m. This improves its CFFO to 52.6m, 175% of its net profit. Free ash flow for this quarter is very good at 40m after continue spending 12.4m in PPE and biological assets.
The good cash flow is reflected in its balance sheet with cash increased by 18% to 321m from 272m last year.
Here I attempt to find the intrinsic value of Kumpulan Fima based on what was posted by Tan Kian Wei as appended in the following link:
http://klse.i3investor.com/
First I need to explain what are the few important data and assumptions I would use for the discount cash flow analysis.
Table 1 below shows the free cash flow for the last 5 years. For the starting free cash flow (FCF), I would use the five year average of 69.8m.
Table 1: FCF for the last 5 years
Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Average
FCF, m 3.1 104.6 113.9 94.7 32.7 69.8
One may query that if we consider to use the immediate past year FCF of just 3.1m which I sometimes do, then my computation will be totally out. However, if you look at the FCF of Kfima for the past 4 years before last year, there is a trend that FCF is trending upwards to more than 100m a year. Hence it would not be right to use just last year FCF which was exceptionally low. In fact Kfima has just announced its first quarter 2014 result which shows that there is about 40m FCF, just for a single quarter. Hence this confirm that using the last 5 year FCF as the starting FCF is reasonable if not conservative.
Next I need to have a reasonable assumption of what the growth rate of this FCF is for the next 5 years and thereafter. Kfima’s FCF has been growing at a CAGR of 43% before the fall of last year. If you consider the FCF for the first quarter 2014, the rate doesn’t seem to slow down. However using that rate of 43% would be grossly unjustifiable as it would be hugely liberal and would result in an exceptional high intrinsic value. What about an assumption of 5% growth for the next 5 years, and then 3% thereafter?
For the next assumption of a discount rate, I will stick to 10% as explained in my previous valuation exercise. Here the risk premium is just 6% above the long term MGS rate. This is because the company has steady earnings and cash flows and a very healthy balance sheet.
The following shows the intrinsic value of Kfima based on the discount cash flow analysis:
PV of FCF 1118m
Add cash 272.2m
Less debt 18.5m
PV of FCFE 1371.8m
Less minority interest 354.5m
PV FCF 1017.3m
Number of shares 270m
FCF per share RM3.77
MOS 48%
The above discount cash flow analysis shows that the intrinsic value of Kumpulan Fima is RM3.77. This represent 48% margin of safety investing in Kfima at RM1.96 now. Of course the market doesn't have to agree with me. Obviously it doesn't.
Posted by kcchongnz at Sep 8, 2013 07:16 PM
So what is wrong with the pick on Kumpulan Fima which lost 2.4% since a year ago? - kcchongnz
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 50 of 87 comments
Hi nokenzo : pls try to use 69,794 as your base FCF to check if you can get Terminal FCF 1,310,701.
I got 69,794 from Table 2.
Table 2: Cash flows of Kfima
Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Average
CFFO 52,589 131,052 137,909 114,196 56,521 98,453
Capex -49,513 -26,434 -24,022 -19,500 -23,826 -28,659
FCF 3,076 104,618 113,887 94,696 32,695 69,794
FCF/Revenue 0.60% 22.20% 26.40% 23.00% 8.90% 16%
FCF/IC 0.60% 25.80% 29.10% 27.70% 9.40% 19%
2013-12-24 05:57
Hi nokenzo : if use your number 70,058 as base FCF, I got terminal FCF =1,315,659. PV FCF= 1,122,242.
add cash =272200
less current debt=-18500
Total PV FCF =1,375,942
less minority inetrest=-354,993
Total PV FCFE =1,020,949
FCF/share=IV = 3.78
MOS @1.96 = 48%
Do you get the same numbers ?
03:45am, do you live outside Malaysia ?
2013-12-24 06:03
You can get Table 2 by double clicking the Title "Blog: Stock Pick Challenge - [KFIMA] by kcchongnz"
2013-12-24 06:05
Hi kokenzo : I were a chemistry student, very dumb too. I spent many days in performing reverse engineering on the numbers by KC Chong to understand DCFA. I were shy to simply ask question, thus I spent lot of hours in reading at Investopedia.com and annual reports to map his numbers. Now I have little(not much and not validated) understanding on his numbers. Please feel free to ask whatever questions, let us learn together.
Happy learning.
2013-12-24 06:18
Thank you very much, Mr BS Ng. Shall try to sort out later after office. I live in Kedah, usually wake up early to read mail and quite computer illiterate. Worst, now trying to understand finance! Me, too, because of KC, I learned to read AR. You are much better than me, hope to learn from you too.
Ecstasy, when I got certain figure right as stated by KC. This reminded me of my student time, I was really on top of the world when I can solve a maths equation.
Yes, happy learning together.
2013-12-24 09:18
Hi Mr BS Ng, Merry Christmas, while most of us are enjoying the holiday, I am still struggling with the 'equation'. Starting from CFFO, I found certain discrepancy, could you advise when you are free?
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008
nokenzo CFFO 52,898 131,051 137,909 114,196 56,521 62,207
Capex -49,659 -26,434 -24,022 -18,412 -23,826 -30,433
FCF 3,239 104,617 113,887 95,784 32,695 31,774
KC ChongCFFO 52,589 131,052 137,909 114,196 56,521 98,453
Capex -49,513 -26,434 -24,022 -19,500 -23,826 -28,659
FCF 3,076 104,618 113,887 94,696 32,695 69,794
BS Ng FCF 73,284 76,948 80,795 84,835 89,077
2013-12-25 11:37
Hi Mr BS Ng, are you from Penang island? If so, do you go jogging in Botanical garden?
2013-12-25 11:39
Hi Nokenzo : I did not calculate FCFO of the last 5 years and the average. I just used the numbers provided by KC Chong as Table #2.
My numbers of FCF {base FCF * (1+growth%)} =73,284, 76,948 80,795 84,835 89,077
Yr1=69794*(1+5%)=73,284,
Yr2=73,284*(1+5%)=76,948,
Yr3=76,948*(1+5%)=80,795
Yr4=80,795*(1+5%)=84,835
Yr5=84,835*(1+5%)=89,077
Terminal FCF= CFn(1+g%)/(R%-g%)=89,077*(1+3%)/(10%-3%)= 1,399,778
FV FCF= FCFF1 / (1 + WACC)^1 + FCFF2 / (1 + WACC)^2 + ... + FCFFn / (1 + WACC)^n
Yr1=73,284/(1+10%)^1+Yr2=76,948/(1+10%)^2+yr3+yr4+yr5+Yr Terminal= 1,399,778/(1+10%)^5=1,118,013.
Good Luck.
2013-12-25 14:28
The base FCF I used for the estimation of future FCF is the average of the FCF of last 5 years, ie 69794.
You notice last year's FCF is very usually low at about 3m only. The FCF before that are much higher. For example 2012 FCF is 105m, 2011 114m etc. Last year there was a build up of inventories and receivables which were unusual. Anyway I have checked the first quarter 2014 cash flow and most receivables have collected and inventories reduced. So it appears to be ok.
So I think the average 5-year FCF used as the base is conservative enough.
2013-12-25 14:39
don't buy kfima...it's too expensive...look...another stock recommended
by kcchong...is pmcorp...only 21.5 cents...ask him why he recommends
lousy counters such as pmcorp..hahaha
2013-12-26 01:22
ask him to make future FCF which must be the average of the FCF of last 5 years for pmcorps...u'll be surprised....ripley's believe or not..he will make u believe...lol
2013-12-26 01:28
Go go go! Go to the company recommended by anbz, the beautiful one of it's kind Nova MSC, that superstar that should reach RM1.20 from RM0.06 before the UMNO general assembly in 2013 ( November 2013???)
Or did you mean 2023?
2033?
2043?
2053?
2013-12-26 01:30
bsnpg, tan kw and many more are all his member of gang...jcool call them jcw gang...or is it jwc gang? can't remember
he also recommends fibon before...and they goreng it well..now look at fibon...what has happened???!!!
he and some of his gang also goreng pmcorp..and now what has happened?!!!
well his team are very powerful and have significant influences on their days...
but he likes to mix craps and truth
2013-12-26 01:34
woe another member of the gang here..i wish i have loyal supporters like u
at least my recommended shares are not in ruin compared to fibon and pmcorp
---
one thing they doesn't move is because i don't have ability to influence people like kcchong
if not..some of mine would also shoot up...and fatin...i also recommended glomac when it was 77 cents...and pw-con when it was 68 cents
they are moving up u know...but if i have the ability to influence or con people like kc...i may made my case...lol
2013-12-26 01:40
But did KC Chong inform his kakis that he had sold out PMCorp and Fibon after these shares have risen???
Did he???????
But did you tell people that all your Nove story was bullshit, and that people should not take your recommendation seriously???
Did you???
2013-12-26 02:08
And KC got his influence not by spamming , like what you did!
He got his following because people know he is genuine, he knows his stuff, he is GOOD!
Not like you, anbz!
Not you!
2013-12-26 02:11
fatinvest : 不错呀！在I3塗塗写写的我竟然可以被看成炒家。如果说我有炒家的财务能力，我真的不介意成为炒家。那种日子一定会超爽，因为股票本来就是我最大的兴趣嘛！
送给你与家人温馨的祝福-“聖誕快乐”+”新年快乐”
2013-12-26 06:39
bsngpg: 哈哈， 圣诞快乐，新年进步.
本不想理这人，可是见他敢敢拿KC开刀， 就beh tahan, 非撩一撩他不可。
KC 有整串赚钱的counter, 而此仁兄却有整串带人去荷兰的counter，还大言不惭。。。
跳樑小丑一名。。。
2013-12-26 08:54
Fatinvest:
当我做不成成龙，我就说成龙是在耍㺅子戏、
当我沒金城武靓仔，那是金城武整容、
当我打不过林丹，那一定是中国在玩不公平手段、派出太外高手、
56年後，我还是没有競爭力，那不是我笨，而是你们搶走我的机会，雖然批不批你做生意的执照的权力全集中在我手上。
因为我没本事与你一样在股市赚钱，那也不是我笨，而是你骗人、
这就是我们马氏的本色，你吹昧！
2013-12-26 10:44
没法子，都是别人的错。
当我问他有关Nova那股票时，他说只能怪他没KC那样的影响力，所以炒不起来（PM Corp thread)...
哇哈哈，还不知道我老同学在此人眼中是“大炒家”。。
2013-12-26 11:07
Posted by anbz > Dec 26, 2013 01:22 AM | Report Abuse
don't buy kfima...it's too expensive...look...another stock recommended
by kcchong...is pmcorp...only 21.5 cents...ask him why he recommends
lousy counters such as pmcorp..hahaha
I NEVER RECOMMEND ANYBODY TO BUY KFIMA, HAVE I? IF I CAN REMEMBER, I TALKED ABOUT THE BUSINESS OF KFIMA, HOW IS ITS OPERATING PERFORMANCE,CASH FLOWS AND BALANCE SHEET. I ALSO TRIED VALUING KFIMA, AND COMPARED WITH ITS PRICE. THOSE WERE WHAT I HAVE DONE. DID I SAY ANBZ, YOU MUST BUY KFIMA, GUARANTEE YOU MAKE MONEY ONE?
I DIDN'T ASK PEOPLE TO BUY BECAUSE I KNOW SOMETHING YOU DON'T KNOW, IE I CAN BE WRONG IN MY ANALYSIS, MARKET MAY NOT AGREE WITH MY ANALYSIS, THE FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN ETC.
NOW YOU SPECIFICALLY RECOMMEND PEOPLE NOT TO BUY KFIMA. CAN SHARE WITH US WHY DO YOU THINK SO? WHY EXPENSIVE? WHAT METRICS DO YOU USE? HEY YOU ARE A MATHS GRADUATE, AREN'T YOU? WE ALL MATHEMATICS INCLINED PEOPLE LIKE TO USE NUMBERS, DON'T YOU?
DID I RECOMMEND PEOPLE TO BUY PMCORP? I REMEMBER I JUST DID A GRAHAM NET-NET VALUATION OF PMCORP AND MENTIONED THAT ITS CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENT IS CLOSE TO ITS SHARE PRICE. THAT WAS ALL I DID. I ALSO MENTIONED THAT ITS CHOCOLATE BUSINESS IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF IT IS GOING TO BE IMPRESSIVE IN THE FUTURE, ALL BASED ON WHAT I SAW IN THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS. WHERE DID I RECOMMEND YOU TO BUY PMCORP?
PMCORP IS A LOUSY COUNTER? DID I ACTUALLY TALKED ABOUT "COUNTER"? MOST OF THE TIME I TALKED ABOUT BUSINESS. THERE IS A BUSINESS BEHIND ALL STOCKS.
Posted by anbz > Dec 26, 2013 01:28 AM | Report Abuse
ask him to make future FCF which must be the average of the FCF of last 5 years for pmcorps...u'll be surprised....ripley's believe or not..he will make u believe...lol
DID I PROJECT THE FUTURE FREE CASH FLOWS OF PMCORP WHEN I DID THE GRAHAM NET-NET VALUATION? DO YOU KNOW WHEN SHOULD WE USE ASSET-BASED AND EARNINGS-BASED VALUATION MODEL TO GET THE INTRINSIC VALUE OF A COMPANY? BY THE WAY, DO YOU KNOW WHAT INTRINSIC VALUE IS? WHAT IS MARGIN OF SAFETY ETC? I GUESS NOT. ALL YOUR POSTS ARE ABOUT SHARE PRICES, WHICH DAY WHAT PRICE, GORENG THIS, GORENG THAT.
YOUNG MAN, IF YOU CONTINUE DOING THIS, YOU GOT NO FUTURE IN YOUR INVESTING EXPERIENCE. TRUST ME.
2013-12-26 12:30
This chap should be ignored. His slanderous remark is to belittle both of you, Mr KC and BS. Both of you still command high respect from all your followers, including me. No amount of slandering can affect my admiration for both of you. Please ignore him. Both of you have done a great job. Salute you.
2013-12-26 15:44
Hi Mr BS Ng and KC Chong, thank you very much. I have finally gotten the answer of FCF per share. Pardon the brain of biology student, can only record and cannot reason. I was banging on historical FCF and not the FV FCF.
2013-12-26 17:22
Hi nokenzo : CONGRATULATION!
I am just few months ahead you in chatting and learning from KC Chong and many others in I3. One of the surest things is that I am few notches behind him. So please do not making me uneasy by putting my name side by side with his except if you are talking about our good intention on this forum.
Another one which you can try on DCFA is Prestariang by KC too. Prestariang is a good counter. I want to buy it at a lower price as so how, I have unconsciously over invested lately. I am now queuing to let go some counters.
送给你与家人温馨的祝福-“聖誕快乐”+”新年快乐”
2013-12-26 17:29
Thank you Mr BS Ng, shall try Prestariang. Merry Christmas and happy new year to you and family too.
2013-12-26 18:06
Hi Mr KC, how do you get 33m reduction in receivables in Q1 2014 comparing to 2013 receivables? Do you also include other receivables also as in the AR and quarterly report?
2013-12-27 06:32
Posted by nokenzo > Dec 27, 2013 06:32 AM | Report Abuse
Hi Mr KC, how do you get 33m reduction in receivables in Q1 2014 comparing to 2013 receivables? Do you also include other receivables also as in the AR and quarterly report?
That 33m is shown in the statement of "cash flow from operating activities" in the first quarter 2014 results. It includes all receivables.
2013-12-27 08:03
Hi Nokenzo: pls do not miss thread "Shall we avoid risks? - kcchongnz". It has good discussion on CFO. I saved the thread but have not gone into it yet as on vacation.
2013-12-29 09:57
KC Chong: Pls allow me to re-post the below under the relevant thread of KFima. TQ.
So what is wrong with the pick on Kumpulan Fima which lost 2.4% since a year ago? - kcchongnz, Publish date: Thu, 2 Jan 14:00
-------------------------------------------------------------------
kcchongnz has left a new comment on your portfolio "Stock Pick Challenge 2013 2H - kcchongnz":
So what is wrong with the pick on Kumpulan Fima which lost 2.4% since a year ago? Well there were two or three people in i3 who constantly picked on me for choosing this stock. However they were not able to articulate on why my Kfima pick was such a bad move, except talking nonsense, all of them.
Looking back on the selection process again, I do not see what is wrong. It was selected based on its diversified durable business in security paper printing, palm oil, bulking, food etc. It had high ROIC of 25%, a healthy balance sheet with 255m net cash, or about RM1 per share, excellent quality of earnings with consistent and abundant cash flows from operations and free cash flow. Free cash flow is more than 20% of revenue and invested capital. And most of all, at RM2.06 at that time, the earnings yield (EV/Ebit) was 27%, a great number.
Sure its earnings has dropped by about 10% the last financial year, though its revenue still went up a little. Again which company with plantation as a major earnings didn’t have their earnings reduced last year when palm oil price is depressed? Many even made losses.
Based on Kfima’s last annual financial results, ROIC has dropped to 19%, but this is still a high return of capital. And at RM1.93 now, its earning yields (EV/Ebit) of 26% is still hell of a good bargain. This is a classic case of the Magic Formula Investing Strategy of Joel Greenblatt.
Buying something for less than its value is the most dependable way to make money. Buying discount from IV and having asset price move towards its value doesn’t require serendipity; it just requires that market participants wake up to reality.
Trying to buy below value isn’t infallible, but it’s the best chance we have.
The fact that despite its great fundamentals haven’t changed but its price has gone down a little while the overall market has gone up by 14%, it is even more compelling to keep Kumpulan Fima as a major stock in my portfolio in 2014.
Posted by kcchongnz at Jan 2, 2014 01:04 PM
2014-01-02 14:33
Kcchongz, is there any guidance of DCF method of yours? I would like to have a clearer picture.
2014-01-03 11:10
I also pick KFIMA for 2014 , we all know that KFIMA is undervalued like many undervalued stocks of which many have been adjusted during 2013 with KFIMA stands out not having any improvement, logically it should make the move.
2014-01-03 11:34
I am in queue buying more KFima, unfortunately there was nobody willing to sell it to me. I will patiently wait for it. I just need few cents lower than the current close. Just want to save few hundred for dinner lah.
2014-01-05 17:57
bsngpg, I jump in on Friday... this is still the highest MOS stock in my portfolio... if didn't get at cheapest nvm la... next Mon might pump in more.. I smell an uptrend coming soon....
2014-01-05 19:15
Houseofordos: I started to q in the last few days as I smelled the uptrend too. Ha! Ha!
2014-01-05 20:17
I will not fight with you. Let you complete your shopping first. I am not in hurry. Good luck
2014-01-05 20:19
Hi bsngpg, wishing you a happy, healthy, harmonious and prosperous CNY. Have not read your comment in this blog for a while.
2014-01-31 12:03
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Ride The Bull Short The Bear
CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
nokenzo
Hi Mr BSNg, just got the formula of Terminal FCF, $=CFn(1+g)/(R-g).
2013-12-24 02:24