Posted by AndyKah > 2013-12-07 05:53 | Report Abuse

Andy Kah - http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/25107.jsp

Posted by Bruce88 > 2013-12-07 07:57 | Report Abuse

It is a great challenge to pick & hold winning stocks throughout the years !

Posted by skyland > 2013-12-07 08:09 | Report Abuse

tsh & cbip

Posted by 爱丽斯 梦幻世界 > 2013-12-07 18:28 | Report Abuse

Tan, ctr like ofi and wthorse should pay double brokerage. In practical if we buy low volume ctr need few day transaction?

Posted by thundercat > 2013-12-08 12:22 | Report Abuse

Hi Mr Tan, please see my portfolio for my stock pick and hold selection for 2014: http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/20919.jsp

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-12-16 18:36 | Report Abuse

Value, value and value

Almost everybody in the market has this slogan of “Buy low, sell high”., although I don’t deny that there are substantial percentage of people prefer to buy high and hope to sell higher. What does it mean by high, and low?

To me I can’t comprehend how one can accomplish the above if he doesn’t have the faintest idea of what is the intrinsic value of the stock. Do you?

I opine that for investing to be reliably successful, an accurate estimate of intrinsic value is the indispensable starting point. Without it, any hope for consistent success as an investor is just that: hope.

I have just talked about the asset based valuation in Graham net-net, and negative enterprise value; buy when total market value of a company’s stock is less than the amount by which the company’s current assets exceed total liability. In theory you could buy all the stocks, liquidate the current assets, pay off the debts, and end up with the business and some cash. Pocket the cash equal to the cost, and with more left over you have paid “less than nothing” for the business.

Value investor can also look for earnings, cash flows, dividend etc and try to quantify the company’s current value and buy when cheap. The valuation can be done using earnings power valuation, Gordon constant dividend growth model, or conservative assumptions in the discount cash flows analysis. Growth investing identifies companies with bright futures in projected earnings and cash flows. The reward for accurately predicting the future is more dramatic, provided you are right about the future. For me I think it is harder to see the future than the present. Hence in my book, consistency trumps drama.

The market is a weighing machine over a long term. If you do a good job valuing a stock and buying at a significant discount to its intrinsic value, the market will eventually agree with you with asset price move towards its value. It is just a matter of time. But don’t expect immediate success. Oh yes, you have to be right of course.

An investment approach based on solid value is the most dependable. In contrast, counting on others to give you a profit regardless of value is probably the least.

Selling for more than your asset’s worth. Hoped-for the arrival of a sucker can’t be counted on. Unlike having an under-priced asset move to its fair value.

Trying to buy below value isn’t infallible, but it’s the best chance we have.

KC Chong in Auckland (16/12/13)

Posted by francis5269 > 2013-12-17 11:04 | Report Abuse

Hi Mr.kc chong,"Hence in my book, consistency trumps drama". u have written a book how to value a oompany?can I buy it?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-12-17 11:45 | Report Abuse

francis, next time when my book is published, I will let you know and be sure you buy a copy, ok?

As for the time being, what I said "in my book", it remains just a synonym.

Posted by francis5269 > 2013-12-17 12:08 | Report Abuse

ok... I sure will buy it...time is money...pls write faster...haha... need to learn fast logical and analyse valuing a stock ... haha...thanks again mr.chong reply...

Posted by wayneteo > 2013-12-19 09:31 | Report Abuse

@kcchongnz I'm going to buy it to if you have one. Please keep me informed. Thanks :)

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-12-26 14:27 | Report Abuse

The share price of Hibiscus dropped from the height of RM2.70 to the morning closing today at RM1.52. This is a drop of 44%, yes 44% in just less than a week!

When I invest in long term, I have reasonable expectation of a consistent return of about 12% a year. To get back from RM1.52 to RM2.70, Hibiscus has to have its share price gained by 78%, just to make even. This 78% return requires 5 years time, each year at 12% return, to do that.

The hope of oil oozing out from the well was dashed with the report out at midnight on the Christmas Eve. Yes, it was based on hope. But it actually could have ended up the other way, that oil oozes out in abundant and the share price shoots to RM10 a share.

However, I don't want to put my money in something for retirement just based on hope.

This will be my guiding principle in selection for stocks to invest in 2014.

Posted by tewnama > 2013-12-26 14:30 | Report Abuse

kcchong, mahu cuba dsonic?

Posted by skyhawk > 2013-12-31 21:19 | Report Abuse

If anyone wants to organize the *trading challenge*,count me in.I am a trader.Buy and hold strategy is not my cup of tea.....

Posted by bursamalaysia > 2014-01-01 12:26 | Report Abuse

trading is not everyone cup of tea but value investment is a much safer bet

Posted by intelligent_investor > 2014-01-01 17:51 | Report Abuse

Mr Tan, I would like to participate in the stock pick.

My target CAGR is 15% and my stock pick for the 100k portfolio is

# Stock # of Share
1 AIRASIA 6,800
2 MULTICO 3,000
3 PTARAS 6,800
4 CSCENIC 9,100
5 KFIMA 2,600
6 LUXCHEM 3,800
7 TIENWAH 1,800
8 TOMYPAK 3,500
9 CBIP 3,100
10 FIMACOR 1,600
11 NOTION 14,700

Posted by skyland > 2014-01-01 17:55 | Report Abuse

I also want to participate

CBIP : 60%
TSH : 40%

Posted by growthinvestor > 2014-01-01 17:59 | Report Abuse

i take part in your competition

AAX 0.995 10k shares = 9950
CMMT 1.40 25k shares = 35000
SCGM 0.975 10k shares = 9750
Hapseng WA 1.26 25k shares = 31500
L&G LA 0.31 20k shares = 6200
Johotin WA 0.31 20k shares = 6200

TOTAL 98600

Posted by growthinvestor > 2014-01-01 18:04 | Report Abuse

dont have time for that analysis. sorry.

Posted by soojinhou > 2014-01-01 18:21 | Report Abuse

I'm in:

Stock / No of Share
1. CBIP 7,800
2. MALTON 18,200
3. PANTECH 10,300
4. INARI 9,200
5. INSTACO 58,000
6. ENGTEX 6,200
7. HEVEA 7,300

Thanks.

Posted by YiStock > 2014-01-01 19:04 | Report Abuse

Mr Tan, kindly please include me. TQVM

1) Cuscapi-Wa 200,000 shares (potential profitability from REV that bring value to the food & beverage industries plus expansion of regional market including china and middle east)
2) Grandflo-wa 50,000 shares (suffered paper losses last quarter due thailand operation but expect revenue to increase from this quarter onwards from confirmed business deal of RM 7.8 million...also dividend paying stock
3) Censof-wa 40,000 shares (GST preparation and realization)
4) Instaco-wb 100,000 shares (telecommunication sector to benefit from new budget on top of current revenue)
5) UMWOG 5,000 shares (aggressive expansion after listed)

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2014-01-01 19:10 | Report Abuse

kian wei bro, i also wanna play kikiki..

100k capital ,
buy 80k ytlpowr-wb at RM0.68 , <--- 0.05% ( RM 54498.52 )

buy 20k frb at RM0.73 , ( RM 14631.06)

buy 10k sunreit at RM 1.23 , ( RM $12,326.53 )

the rest put in cash.
(100k-RM54498.82-14631.06-12326.53 = RM 18543.59 cash in hand*)

im using mplus-online, the brokerage fees is 0.08% or minimum RM 8, if above RM 30k , the fees is 0.05%, thankq kikiki..

Posted by annie24 > 2014-01-02 10:07 | Report Abuse

Dear Mr.Tan, really wish you could continue managing this :)

Posted by soojinhou > 2014-01-02 15:18 | Report Abuse

No time to post detailed analysis like the sifus in this group. I'll just do some paragraphs on the selections.

Hevea

Other than having investment grade metrics, the reader can do the Excel himself, external factors are all positive. Ringgit may weaken, USD may strengthen. 90% of its products are exported, the first plus. Although its earnings are affected by the USD-denominated debt, it is able to pay down the debt at a considerably fast pace, pointing to a healthy free cash flow. As they get charged less interest as their debt shrinks, future earnings should grow. 2nd plus. US housing is also recovering, and they already have a presence in Philippines, which most likely will boost sales the same way as the reconstruction in Japan is now.

These are what I called "growth catalyst". Sifus like kcchongnz does not really like to include these in decision making, but I beg to differ. Everybody loves a growth story. If you manage to catch one before the breakout, the rewards are tremendous. I have 3 stocks that doubled up this year, Muhibah, Inari and Agritrade International (HK). If can catch one, the return is in the triple digits. I always look for growth catalyst and overweight my counters appropriately based on the feasibility of the catalyst. Strategy served me quite well in 2013. Let's see if 2014 can sustain.

Posted by jester > 2014-01-02 15:40 | Report Abuse

Dear Tan KW, am I too late to join? Newbie here trying to learn with everyone.

If I still can make it, my pick would be:

1) Pantech 20400
2) KSL 9200
3) Cenbond 13200
4) Perisai 19600
5) Sunreit 8100

As I'm late, you can either take closing price on 31/12/2013 as transaction price or up to today's date whichever brings me higher cost. It's a buy & hold anyway and I'm just trying to participate.

Thanks

Posted by HJey > 2014-01-02 23:06 | Report Abuse

Tan KW, kindly count me in too.

Buy based on today closed price.

AirAsia X 10,000
HapSeng X 12,000
L&G X 14,000
Magnum X 5,000
YeeLee X 15,000

Thank you.

Posted by jester > 2014-01-02 23:12 | Report Abuse

Thanks Mr Tan KW. Appreciate your support so much.
Thanks for being here in the community.

Have a nice day~

Posted by WiseEye > 2014-01-02 23:57 | Report Abuse

Hi Tan KW, hopefully you can take the trouble to include me as well. If the deadline is over, its okay =) . My pick is based on 2 Jan 2014. Any price u use would be fine, if exceed, just reduce from INSTACO.

My picks are:

Censof X 20000 (0.55)
GHLSYS X 20000(0.725)
INSTACO X 47000 (0.26)
REDTONE X 30000 (0.665)
CYPARK X 10000 (2.45)
YOCB X 10000 (0.935)
SCOMIES X 10000 (0.8)

Thanks a lot!

Posted by WiseEye > 2014-01-03 00:16 | Report Abuse

Just to provide my insights for my stock picks to share with forumers:

1) CENSOF - Mainly due to GST implementation, with 80++ gov + corporate clients in which they can capitalize to provide GST softwares. Acquisition of TIME also creates huge synergy especially for Dagang.Net. RM300m tender for contract in Philippines. Price have also reduced quite a bit from its high.

2)GHLSYS - Huge growth potential as Bank Negara intends to promote electronic based payment.Untapped potential in debit card usage in ASEAN. Management plans to create more source of income which is recurring in nature. Price have also reduced quite a bit from its high.

3) INSTACO - Trading at extremely deep discount. Low PE, high ROE. Recent budget to build 1,000++ telco towers in East Malaysia. Only 2 major players in this field, OCK and INSTACO, in which I believe both will get sizeable contracts. OCK has already went up a lot.

4) REDTONE - Trading at quite an attractive price. Turnaround company with bright future. Reason of purchase would be due to high chances of winning DTTB project, with partners like Huawei, PwC and Media Broadcast GmBH (successful German corporation). Redtone sold some subsi's shares to Sultan of Johor.

5) CYPARK - Huge potential in Renewable Energy. Percentage of billing revenue goes to RE from 1% to 1.6% in TNB bills.

6) YOCB - Trading at attractive price. Sustainable growth and will increase productivity capacity by 2015 with new factory built.

7) SCOMIES - Only O&G industry pick which provides Drilling Waste Management business in the O&G stream, in which is quite niche in Msia (SCOMIES - 50% market share in DWM). O&G has been saturated with many players with OSVs and its proper to look at O&G companies which does a different form of biz other than OSVs, FSPOs, etc (although SCOMIES also does OSV business).

My explanation is quite brief as I expect readers to further check with Google on specifics as well as to confirm my information.

Happy reading and I look forward to professional comments/insights from you all.

Posted by soojinhou > 2014-01-04 11:39 | Report Abuse

Inari

Although prices has gone up much, if 3Q13 results can be sustained (EPS 4.69), we are looking at a forward PER of 8.6 only, vs Gtronic's PER 17.

All external factors indicate that they should be able to sustain, at least for 4Q13 driven by Christmas sales and 1Q14 driven by China Mobile deal. New ipad sales are good, and they carry Avago's chip (from iFixit). Furthermore, Apple has just signed with China Mobile, which may boost their 1Q14 sales. As an export oriented company (84% products exported), they also should benefit from a weaker ringgit and a stronger USD in 2014.

Posted by soojinhou > 2014-01-23 14:58 | Report Abuse

Tan KW, sell all my Pantech and switch to Instaco can?

Posted by soojinhou > 2014-01-25 09:59 | Report Abuse

Tan KW, I don't trade, I invest. However, unlike pure fundamentalist I also put in a lot of effort studying growth catalyst proposals. As a result, I do change my mind every now and then if my assumptions proved incorrect. My strategy earned me 70% return from equities last year excluding dividends. Am I allowed to use my strategy in this competition or not? If I'm not allowed to, then forget it delete my portfolio I'm out. If I'm allowed to, then I would also like to switch all my Malton to Country View.

Posted by talkking > 2014-01-25 10:08 | Report Abuse

ok lah,out lah

Posted by growthinvestor > 2014-02-18 18:06 | Report Abuse

Total dividend
CMMT RM1125

Posted by milopanas > 2014-05-06 23:42 | Report Abuse

i akan research analyse semua orang stock.

Posted by optimusx8 > 2014-05-06 23:42 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by milopanas > 2014-05-07 13:32 | Report Abuse

ok.let start with overview dulu.14 orang,10 untung lebih dari market index.4 rugi below market.ini maksud 71% orang i3 untung dgn tactic buy hold sekarang.terbukti buy hold boleh.

Posted by milopanas > 2014-05-07 13:37 | Report Abuse

stock popular untung ialah CBIP. ini pilihan intelligent investor,skyland,soojinhou

stock popular rugi ialah Airasia.ini pilihan intelligent investor,TKW,HJey

Posted by milopanas > 2014-05-07 13:41 | Report Abuse

stock paling outstanding ialah inari wa,ecoworld.pilihan otb,Andy Kah

Posted by milopanas > 2014-05-07 13:46 | Report Abuse

stock sector pilihan popular ialah ICT dan property. Wiseeye portfolio concentrate banyak di ICT.diversificaton tak banyak tapi untung lebih market sekarang.

Posted by milopanas > 2014-05-07 13:49 | Report Abuse

2 stock dari 5 di property.ini pilihan HJey.masih untung lebih market sekarang.

Posted by milopanas > 2014-05-07 13:52 | Report Abuse

jester pilih 2 stock dari 5 di oil gas.rugi lebih market sekarang.

Posted by milopanas > 2014-05-07 13:55 | Report Abuse

7 pilihan berlainan industry.ini pilihan soonjinhou.

Posted by milopanas > 2014-05-07 13:56 | Report Abuse

FTCB pilih 3 stock lain.property untung tapi warrant rugi di ytlpower.

Posted by milopanas > 2014-05-07 13:59 | Report Abuse

80% capital YiStock ialah warrant.adakah warrant lebih sesuai utk short term dan ta saja kerana ciri ciri warrant.rugi dibawah market.

Posted by milopanas > 2014-05-07 14:02 | Report Abuse

3 stock plantation pilihan TKW dari total.adakah cpo price penyumbang kpd untung lebih market.

Posted by milopanas > 2014-05-07 14:04 | Report Abuse

rugi teruk di aax tapi untung di property.adakak airline stock tidak bagus utk buy hold strategy?

Posted by milopanas > 2014-05-07 14:05 | Report Abuse

2 stock saja tapi CBIP banyak untung utk bagi kedudukan no.1 sekarang.diversification atau focus lebih bagus?

Posted by milopanas > 2014-05-07 14:08 | Report Abuse

banyak diversification dgn 11 stock di inndustri lain.ini pilihan intelligent investor.untung lebih market.untung banyak di ptaras, cbip

Posted by bracoli > 2014-05-07 14:08 | Report Abuse

Milopanas since u r superbly good in evaluating others, why dont u create ur own stocks selection for Tankw? Im sure we all can learn from u as well..

Posted by milopanas > 2014-05-07 14:09 | Report Abuse

1 stock saja pilihan thundercat and jenis stock ialah cf.persoalan yg sama,warrant utk short term dan ta mugnkin lebih sesuai.