Do not get....distracted by the hyper inflation....currency debasement thing loh.....!!
For gpld....to be of great value & has utlity value....they must be totally lack of confidence in the issue of value of the country loh....!!
Talk about Germany.....the Mark was debased .....they need start a new currency a new mark....due to hyper inflation.....Then maybe there are some value on gold loh...!! Still people who own property beside gold also did very well mah.....!!
The other thing....when the Japanese....lost their war in Malaya...the Japanese....banana monies....was disbanded too & become useless....!! But still people who own farm land, properties and factories did very well too....!!
Than the issue of Vietnam....when the South Vietnam loss....people who want to run away....as boat people....carry some gold with them loh...!! But still even that....they can carry alternative assets like foreign currencies....bcos gold is heavy too.....!!
The example...showed...unless...they is war....and the country u r supporting lose the war....and u need to be a refugee to avoid prosecution ...then gold will have utility value loh....!! But they are alternative too like foreign currencies & diamond etc
So most of the time...business or ur share....will be a very good protection against inflation loh....!!
stockraider, U r financial expert, very highly competent one loh I salute your high competent skills loh
Please think out of the box for once in your life loh Go Singapore and make appointment with Jim Rogers to seek his advise on Asset Preservation strategy during hyperinflationary times Just do it for your understanding loh
All of you Valuë investors are brained damaged by Warren buffet "Value Investing Methodology" Dont you understand that Warren Buffett Value Investing has no place during hyperinflationary times? U all shall suffer financial depreciation in assets by using Warren Buffet Investment advise loh Why loh? Because your hurdle rate will be much more than 15% loh, it changes every day loh 15%, 30%, 100%, 1000%, 10,000% etc What is your NPV using these high discount rate loh? The answer is simple loh...nearly zero value loh Raider still no understand meh? Or Raider too stubborn to think out of box meh?
Value Investing will again become of value after hyperinflation ends
Raider Still think sunztzhe still talk rubbish meh?
Is currency wars happening now? Is currency wars currency debasement? What is your view state of economy in USA, EUROLAND, CHINA , JAPAN loh What are the Central banks in these countries doing or planning to do loh? Would worldwide liquidity shrink meh?
Stockraider! Yes, I am very confident BRIGHT is superb! Just want to hear from you! I did follow you in Invest few years back! All your recommendations mind blowing! Hope you write some in BRIGHT forum!
I lazy to argue with u on economics....currency war....meant printing monies....worldwide....this mean....cash will have less n less value mah.....!!
This mean inflation loh....!! This mean higher cost of living loh....!!
How to benefit from higher cost of living ? Do business or buy share that supply the thing people need and has the pricing power mah....!!
U buy gold.....but gold don give u return mah....!! u may not... even need gold....bcos....u cannot eat gold mah...!! As I say...u need gold....when u want to be a refugee during war loh...!!
Always stick to business....the frontline....to fight inflation loh...!!
I Believe in different asset portfolio. To do that we need to have deep understanding of different asset and purpose.
1) It is a generational Wisdom that we keep wedding gold rings and ornaments and pass those down from generation to the next; Well, it is Not productive But look at Purpose first. Don't calculate the return yet. Because the Purpose itself will save you during Emergency.
So adopt a good habit to Buy family gift in gold during occasions ya.
2) Very luckily some friends listen to me to Buy properties few years back and they are most grateful today. I have to shout them out of their minds as the Only thing they know is stock market and Warren Buffet.
I like rental income with good locations.
Look at our generational house passing down from one generation to the next. And we must be grateful that our Parents is capable of doing that.
3) Few friends always challenges me to do some Business. Well i manage a small investment in laundry shop and photostat shop as they don't require Big capital expenditure.
4) Some Mutual funds are doing quite well. You may want to park your money there Once in a year for savings.
5) Keep 20% of your Holding in FD. I consider cash as Investment as well.
6) Surely almost 50% of my investment is in stock market with good earning yield about 15%. I will be more Overweight in Plantation, general insurance and consumer products.
I hope this can be efficient frontier.
Lets talk about hyperinflation Only when it happens ya.
Most people here are cushioned by a benign interest rate environment They think that life is ever so good, nothing to worry They don't understand the concept behind uncontrolled money creation and its consequent impact on daily lives Uncontrolled money creation has its consequences but most people here are "kataks behind tempurung", thinks that life is ever so rosy well if you have not experienced it, how will you know? That is precisely the point
Very few will know about uncontrolled money creation until the symptoms appear By that time its too late, hyperinflation suddenly emerges Just like the calm sea before the tsunami unleashed its fury in Thailand Nobody knew that tsunami was approaching from far distance and even admired the beautiful long distant waves coming onshore How beautiful is the wave, wow look at its beauty!! little did they realized that tsunami is on the way heading towards them with sudden fury How many people died? killed by the sudden fury? Hyperinflation tsunami will have devastating effects, that's for sure
They may understand the concept of hyperinflation but they may not have the experience of living through one In reality they don't know how to deal with hyperinflation Talking and living through hyperinflation require different skillsets I have lived through hyperinflation elsewhere in this world I know what hyperinflation is all about,what it does to the economy, to ones daily life, to ones purchasing power
stockopertor, Just online and read your comments. When your spouse is tired of showing off old gold ring to friends , buy her a new gold chain, gold ring or gold coin. Gold coin she can keep. It is store of value just to diversify a wee bit as we are not 100% sure of what is going to happen in the financial future. For risk management buy highest quality and please get an authenthic certificate verification on % gold content.
Leno, You have a big ego, personality ala poisonality problem. Just look at yourself in the mirror and ask yourself this question
First Question: "Do I have big ego, personality ala poisonality problem?"
Second Question: "How can I further improve my self image"
Hopefully you will address your weaknesses honestly and make a stupendous real effort to self improve. Hiking up Kinabalu is peanuts compared to your path to self improvement and image remaking loh.
For a start please refrain from ridiculing others as Blue Chip Pundan Investor, Bodo Sombong type ... stupeed etc" as these reflect badly on your upbringing and also how your parents had brought up so. Sorry I have to be honest with you on this matter.
Since you are panlai investor I will ask you , what will be your Return on Invested Capital on PRK Corp after SCR? Let us compare apples with apples OK? I had also invested in PRK Corp. I got in @1.80 and got out @3.20. Next I enter MKH @2.65, sold off cum bonus @4.80, Reenter after bonus @ 3.62. Now MKH price@ 3.93. U r a financial expert, please calculate using just 1,000 shares.
Have u lived with hyperinflation meh? wow you talk so panlai lah Quote: "Panlai investor seldom tok kok about economy lor. Usually use bottom up lor. Take one company, analyse and make decision. So simple. Got correct or not leno said ? Sure correct wan" Unquote
When u r living in a hyperinflation country , do u still think "use bottom up lor. Take one company, analyse and make decision. So simple" is the right financial strategy ? Please ponder more loh.
Leno, I think u really "tok kok to yourself and had shown to yourself that you are indeed bodoh sombong..stupeed only loh."
In hyperinflation situation, Calvin Tan was spot on .."CASH IS TRASH". What is the point of high audited cash backing per share of a company in hyperinflation country like you so panlai panlai identify a company?
What would you do when you have cash in hyperinflation country? You still want to do Value investing methodology, hurdle rates discounting when the inflation rate keep on increasing by the hour? By the time you had computed the NPV, it is no longer valid loh. What will be your financial strategy to preserve the value of your cash in hyper inflationary period?
I hope you will take the above feedback positively to make effort to re-make your self image. If had not cared for you, I will not have even bothered to reply to your comments.
I so sincerely hope that you wont feel offended Leno as we all must rise above personal trivialities, personal prejudices to see the greater benefit of improving financial returns from investment through active discussion, challenging each other investment ideas, sharing info and sometimes heated exchanges. I believe that active but sometimes "heated challenge" is a very effective process to get the best value ideas out of every participants. Based on last night discussion on hyperinflation, I value the input from stockraider, Calvin Tan the most.
Thank you for your understanding. I hope this communication is also a learning process to you as well.
Raider already emphasis....the margin of safety share investment tech..can be used for all season.....even hyper inflation days loh...!!
In today...environment....there is no such thing as inflation all the way....or recession all the way mah......!! This is bcos there is always....intervention of the invisible hand loh....!!
Therefore....u can always expect some form of moderation loh...!! Take Greece for example...at the height of the crisis....the govt borrowing rate was 20% pa....and today it is around 5% pa....a big swing within a period of 1.5 year loh....!!
Raider always refrain...from recommending....to buy gold for protection against hyper inflation...bcos it a lousy option based on todays....environment....as gold....do not earn u anything loh...!! A simple purchase of quality undervalue stock....at hurdle rate of 15% pa above....can do a better job....of protecting u against hyper inflation loh.....!!
Raider....only see gold is useful.....when there is a war...and the govt u bet has collapse....and u need to run away as a refugee loh...!!
Those...holding gold at the height of Greece crisis at usd 2000...will be crying now as gold is only usd 1300 loh...!! Btw....u do not get any income loh....!!
Those who bought bonds and quality stocks at the height of greek crisis are laughing all the way to the bank loh....!!
those who bought value stocks graham or lynch style before, during, and after any crisis are laughing kekekekekek ... value investing is about margin of safety ... meaning having my back side cover in case of anything bad happening lor. Once cover backside then only waiting for upside mar. Simple or not ? See ... told u so simple mani time alredi ... KEKEKEKEKEK
Raider very good comments loh!! Raider ultra gold hawk loh! sunztzhe accept Raider views with open mind mah means sunztzhe mind still open to raider ideas mah Don't believe sunztzhe meh?
Hiyah gold/diamond can be present to wife/partner mah Gold/diamond not make wife/partner happy meh? Raider make so much money from hurdle rate investment loh Sure Raider can buy gold/diamond as birthday present to wife or partner mah or raider buy undervalue shares and give share certificate to raider wife/partner loh! Which present has higher perceived utility value loh?
of course lah..raider very competent in margin of safety technique loh just like money religion to raider mah, No meh? imagine raider live through hyperinflation, can still do hurdle rate investment technique mah, No meh?
Best time to do hurdle rate investment technique and act on it is near/at peak of inflation, near/at peak of interest rate mah No point doing and acting on hurdle rate investment technique at beginning and mid way of hyperinflation period mah Raider no agree meh?
So anyway, it was very refreshing to hear Marks talk about the macro. He was asked about how macro is getting to be more important in investing in these volatile times. He said that most people think macro will determine investment results (so they pay a lot of attention to it). But he points out that in investing, there is always another side to it.
Of course, it's desirable to be able to forecast the macro to improve your investment results, but the big question is can you do it? Can it be done? Marks said that he personally doesn't believe that you can be consistently superior in macro judgements. The two key words are consistently superior.
He also noted that the smartest investors from Buffett on down don't make macro judgements; they find great values to invest in.
He was asked what he thought will happen in Europe (just after telling them that forecasting macro can't be done consistently). He said that it is a complex situation but he is sure of three things:
1. He doesn't know what will happen in Europe 2. Nobody knows what will happen in Europe 3. If you ask an expert what they think and take their advice, you're making a mistake.
He quoted Mark Twain: "It's not what you don't know that gets you into trouble, it's what you know for certain that just ain't true".
Can you know more than others? That's the real question.
Hiyah depend on tukang tilik sifu also also loh Everyone got own kung fu mah tukang tilik sifu wayang kulit also mah What u no see, u wont know leh
No substitute for hard work loh Must know what info to look for leh Focus on Annual Report, Qtr report good mah Use brain power to do work good mah This sit down ,shake leg, telephone call, surf internet for info, i3 foruming, drink kopi can do mah
look for Chairman message, New business development, P&L, BS, Cashflow, Basic financial ratios, Notes to account, Top 30 Shareholders very good mah Cash per share, NTA per share, operational cashflow per share, Total debt Equity ratio, EPS, DPS, Compute ROCE,Gross Margin increase or decrease, Debt/Expenses increase or decrease very important mah No substitute for hard work loh
A company well being not really related to overall economy. More to own country policy. EVen in 98 times also got stocks go up, because they have expanded capacity. So profit doubled, so will stock price. Even not, after crisis sure double.
kc, I would like to ask, under what circumstances that a company may have negative cash from operations in cashflow statement but at the same time shows a net profit in a financial year? My question may sounds silly, sorry for that, but thank you in advance for willing to help me =D
Posted by screwdriver > Jun 14, 2014 10:27 PM | Report Abuse
kc, I would like to ask, under what circumstances that a company may have negative cash from operations in cashflow statement but at the same time shows a net profit in a financial year? My question may sounds silly, sorry for that, but thank you in advance for willing to help me =D
A contractor has claimed he has done 100m of work last year. Part of it he claimed that 10m is additional work or what he called variation order.
However he received only 50m cash for the year. 20m is still under certification from consultants, the 10m he claimed is disputed by the client. On top of that, the consultant slaps a 20m fine for liquidated and ascertained damages for delay.
Sounds familiar? This is very common for construction work and contract disputes.
How do you evaluate an IT comapny with high depreciation?
When I evaluate Opensys this company, I realize its ROIC/ROE are very low(about 10%) due to high depreciation. Its FCF/Invested capital is quite high(most of the time the ratio is >20%) because its fcf does not take into consideration depreciation.
when I try to get the intrinsic value of the company using DCF, i realize its value should be very high with conservative growth(1%-5%, I evaluate this comapny when it was 0.2x).
i think high depreciation means that there will be considerable capex to maintain operations.... One should look at average fcf over a longer period to be more conservative... but i think its quite ttrue that ROIC would not be great for capital intensive business...
What is your opinion for the folliwing statements?
1:High returns on existing capital—the capital already employed in a business—are almost meaningless without an ability to invest new capital at above-average returns. Returns on existing capital, whether high or low, are already refl ected in a company ’s operating income. In a static scenario, the driver of return to equity investors is the earnings yield—or free cash fl ow yield, to be more precise. If we pay less for a given level of earnings, we will earn a higher return. Whether the earnings number was achieved by employing X amount of capital or half of X is irrelevant. In a scenario without reinvestment, the only other driver of return will be whether management returns cash to shareholders or whether it insists on putting cash back into the business despite an absence of high-return projects
2:This commonsense use of EBITDA appears to have evolved into an overly broad application of the measure. If we analyze a telecom services company as a going concern, and the fi rm ’s maintenance capital expenditures approximate depreciation and amortization, EBITDA may obscure rather than illuminate owner earnings.
The manual of idea is a great book! Thank you for your recommendation. ANYMORE good books?Hahaha.
1) High return of existing capital meaningless? a. If a firm’s ROC is very low, where does it get the cash from to distribute better dividends for the purpose of returning cash to shareholders, to make maintenance capital expenses, or to invest in something else new which provides good return of this new capital etc, assuming the marginal return of this new capital cannot earn above average return reinvesting into the business? Issue more shares? Borrow more money? b. ROC is about operational efficiency, earnings yield, cash flow yield are about how much return to investor for the price he pays. They are two different things. c. Yes, the return to equity investors are earnings yield, cash flow yield etc. Of course the lower the price you pay, the higher the yields you get. However, the numerators of those metrics are still dependent on what is the return of capital, aren’t they? d. Don’t you think a higher efficient company deserves a higher market valuation?
2) Agree with your second point. I treat EBITDA as the firm’s earnings after all the bad stuff. Bad stuff is a real cost to the business, and how can we ignore this stuff?
I like this book. It is more of a fiction, an interesting story book. It is very interesting to read about corporation’s behavior and what you should avoid in investing.
Conspiracy of Fools: A true story of Enron, Kurt Eichenwald
Posted by NOBY > Feb 19, 2014 11:41 PM | Report Abuse KC, what is your view on MMODE recently announced Q4 results as you mention you are holding some ? A few things :- 1. One off very high deferred tax charge caused net profit to plunge to only RM490k. 2. Operating margins also plunged to only 10% due to higher operational costs. 3. The only bright spot is its high net cash holding of RM0.25 per share due to its healthy cashflows.
Mmode share price dropped from about 70 sen to less than 50 sen after the release of this quarterly report.
Posted by kcchongnz > Feb 20, 2014 04:53 PM | Report Abuse X Noby, You know I am not one who will get all worked out when there is a drop of profit just for a quarter, especially due to higher tax allowable, write-off of non-cash items etc.
The top-line is still growing. PE is single digit, and good cash flow and healthy balance sheet.
To be a value investor,you need to have the following attributes as written in the article here:
You need to have patience, and a lot of it You must be disciplined You must mind your behaviour You must know when to go against the crowd You must read a lot (annual reports, investing books etc.)
Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 20, 2013 12:40 PM | Report Abuse X Posted by xingxian > Sep 18, 2013 01:23 PM | Report Abuse Take a look at MMODE. Similar to FIBON IMO
Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 19, 2013 07:35 PM | Report Abuse X
Is M-Mode good for a long term investment? (19092013)
M-Mode Berhad is engaged in the provision of mobile contents and data application services with platform connected to mobile network operators in Malaysia and China.
M-Mode has a fantastic growth story. From 2006 to 2012, its revenue and net income grows by a CAGR of 37% and 75 to 62.1m and 13.2m respectively as shown in the appended Table 1.
Table: Revenue and net profit for M-Mode Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 Revenue 62070 75395 29207 22335 16129 13540 9432 Net Income 13232 12867 3425 3026 2096 1189 465 EPS, sen 8.1 8.0 2.2 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.4
M-Mode is one of the rare companies having a gross margin of over 40% and net profit margin above 20%. ROE and ROIC are high at 25% and 51% respectively, much higher than the costs of capitals and my requirement of 15% for a small capitalized company.
Quality of earnings is good with cash flows from operations higher than its net income. Free cash flow is positive every year with FCF above 50% of invested capital and 19% of revenue. MMode has a healthy balance sheet with an excess cash of 33.6m. Hence MMode is great company in every aspect. But is it a good company to invest in?
M-Mode’s share price rose by 4 sen today. At 57 sen a piece now, MMode is trading at a PE ratio of just 7.0. Enterprise value is also low at 4.5 times ebit (<<8 times). The price-to-book ratio is not excessive at 1.8.
Hence in my opinion, M-Mode is a great company good for long-term investment.
New IPO: The onshore and offshore support services provider for the O&G industry, Steel Hawk Bhd aims to list on the Ace Market!
MQ Trader 5873 views | 5 d ago
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New IPO: The largest mini-market player and a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd aims to list on the Main Market!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
fortunebullz
2,000 posts
Posted by fortunebullz > 2014-06-10 21:15 | Report Abuse
Hyperinflation only happen to badly manage economy! Dont bother to even discuss about hyperinflation in Malaysia! Non existence!