Fortunebullz, I like this sentence "If you are good, probable you don't need it! But if you are bad, you only double or triple your bad luck", very true.
When I read hor all this margin financing, I think to my self hor, spend time with family or hv a cup of nice coffee better than argue hor because got no answer one. Mr Luk everyday got opinion, I advice him to drink coffee with me
I think on the question of taking margin finance...perhaps its clearer for some to get the message if we ask:
Is the money you are about to gain even if its 10 x the value you are about to invest by margin financing, worth when you weigh in the risk of 'losing it completely and spend the whole life working to get back your capital' - especially for youngsters.
Is such risk taking behaviour (independent on how high the value you may gain or how confident you are on your prediction)...worth it?
And....can your investment in stocks ever come close to the certainty of getting money in investing in property, land or fixed deposit, or own business- though may be a small return? Remember we are talking about certainty here - not the return value.
'uncertainty cannot be completely traded off with potential gain'
and...one should never 'stake' more than a certain fraction of their net assets value, i.e if one takes margin finance they must be prepared that they will lose it completely and thee total loss is still below say 30% person of their orginal net asset value.
So for youngster this 'loss cap' should be even lower - say 10%. The basic needs of house, car etc should never be compromised.
When you already have 'excess money' more than what would be required for normal retirement....then its upto you to gamble with the extra money.
Posted by Icon8888 > Jun 21, 2015 10:47 PM | Report Abuse Fortunebullz u r right - if u are good, no need margin
The above statement caries weight in this thread from both forumers, icon8888 and Fortunebullz as I have arguments with both you guys before, and surprise with your agreement. Not actually surprise if we are looking at the real issue, that should we tell the general public to use margin finance?
I remember my argument with icon8888 on the same issue and he used margin finance and he did well. I had no issue on that. Who am I to tell him not to when he made it? To be truthful, I used leverage too in 2009 when I re-mortgage my house to get a loan, and I invested all in Bursa then. You know lah, we are small timer, kuching kurat, where got investment banks offer us tens of million of margin finance?
I did make very good amplified profit with that loan if you have a look at my oldest portfolio which had gained 120% in two and a half years. What about the gain from 6 years ago using OPM? But am I proud of it? No! Did I tell the public that I have made big by doing so and encourage them to do so, knowing then it could all be due to luck?
Does it matter if I invest say less than a million compared to the big timers using tens of million? Do they carry more weight and more truth in telling the public to use OPM, than us kuching kurat?
We must have an idea of what the message we are projecting to the public, especially to our younger generations, that using OPM is not good for their well being, and the society in general. The general public and the younger generation!
Have we got the bad experience before like the huge leverage in 2008 in the US sub-prime crisis, and even now in thing like 1MDB at home, even in corporate?
All newbies, take heed of the wise words from KC Chong. Treat market with respect, because financial crises ALWAYS come like a thief in the night. It will always be unexpected. Even with their fancy degrees and doctorates, very few economists foresee the collapse of the subprime mortgage in 2007. Don't get yourself in a situation you cannot recover from if a black swan event happens, and always expect it to happen once of twice in your lifetime.
I share your views KC as I was one of those who bought R Sawit based on that bullish recommendation of it being the cheapest plantation stock in world and got burn in the process. Have sold at loss but still holding some. I don't blame any one but take it as expensive lesson learned.
"Here the problem is that using leverage—buying with borrowed money—doesn’t make anything a better investment or increase the probability of gains. It merely magnifies whatever gains or losses may materialize.And it introduces the risk of ruin if a portfolio fails to satisfy a contractual value test and lenders can demand their money back at a time when prices and illiquidity are depressed. Over the years leverage has been associated with high returns, but also with the most spectacular meltdowns and crashes." ~The Most Important Thing Illuminated.
Posted by thteh > Jun 22, 2015 09:56 AM | Report Abuse I share your views KC as I was one of those who bought R Sawit based on that bullish recommendation of it being the cheapest plantation stock in world and got burn in the process. Have sold at loss but still holding some. I don't blame any one but take it as expensive lesson learned.
thteh, glad you share my view, but I like your last sentence more:
"I don't blame any one but take it as expensive lesson learned."
Unlike this guy below, he chooses the five stocks as shown, only two of them are in my portfolio below:
The two, Plenitude +21.1%, which is twice better return than the broad market return of 12%, and Pantech is the only under performer, but it is still positive return at +3.7%.
The other two company warrants, uh, he was so "lucky", i only shared how warrants are being valued, and explain what financial risk management is being used with warrants, and he went to buy those two warrants at peak prices with margin finance and got "pok Kai". And then he blamed me!
Why didn't he follow me and buy the portfolio of 10 stock and made 120% in two and a half years, but instead punt with margin finance on the two warrants which were supposed to be used as teaching purpose. This is really a six sigma event!
[Posted by bad_stocks > Jun 21, 2015 09:20 PM | Report Abuse
What will happen if my margin portfolio have stocks like BIMB-W, MRCB-W, Padini, Pantech & Plenitude? ]
He need to have another new and better id. bad_stocks really bad luck.
If KYY is not good in his investment as pointed by KC, why KYY is so rich ? It is not possible to be 100% accurate in stocks selection , just look as VS !!!
Posted by Tvmen > Jun 22, 2015 11:59 AM | Report Abuse If KYY is not good in his investment as pointed by KC, why KYY is so rich ? It is not possible to be 100% accurate in stocks selection , just look as VS !!!
Please read what the thread is trying to share with you. You will learn something for sure.
My articles is always not about personality, but issues, and sharing of knowledge and experience.
Posted by Good_point_ > Jun 22, 2015 01:05 PM | Report Abuse If KC Chong always get high return as his blogs suggest why he need to ask for money from i3 forumers for his course? Why he is not as rich as KYY?
Although yours is a new id, I like to entertain your this question.
Yes, I am not as rich as KKY, that is for sure. Few people here can even come close to the wealth of KKY, as we have read from the blogs.
High return as in my blog? Yes, that is for sure, but that is in percentage term. In absolute term it is far far away from what KKY has in term of wealth. But does that mean a wealthier person is a better human being than a poor person, and must be accorded with higher standing and respect than the poor people?
So I am a poor person, and I teach people with my time and expertise. I don't cheat, and I don't steal. Do you have any problem with honest people earning a living? And why do you have a problem?
KC, aiya.. dont waste time responding to these type of comments, just flag them and let admin handle... you dont need to justify to these clowns...
The amount of articles and knowledge you have shared in this forum itself is worth more than all these braggers who come here flaunting their wealth like tin kosong... or telling people they bought at the lowest and sell at the highest... who cares how much money one has ? Forum is a place to exchange information and share knowledge...
KC, KYY is very sucessful in his share investment , is unfair for you to pick one of the stock that didn't perform in his portfolio and write a big story on it , not the question of rich or not rich.
Tvmen, nothing against KYY, he may be very successful yes, but dont you think its useful to learn from some of his mistakes which is what this article is about ? On the flip side, is it also fair to say that just because someone made big money on 1 or 2 stocks, that makes him a super investor ?
Posted by NOBY > Jun 22, 2015 01:50 PM | Report Abuse
KC, aiya.. dont waste time responding to these type of comments, just flag them and let admin handle... you dont need to justify to these clowns...
The amount of articles and knowledge you have shared in this forum itself is worth more than all these braggers who come here flaunting their wealth like tin kosong... or telling people they bought at the lowest and sell at the highest... who cares how much money one has ? Forum is a place to exchange information and share knowledge...
Noby, when I write an article, I truly want to share something which I think it is useful and important. A writer likes to have readers and also comments, the more constructive are the comments, the better, at least for me. Hence I have never flagged a single comment in any of my 137 articles. I try to answer as much as possible, as some of the articles can be misconstrued, and they often were misinterpreted. For those meaningless posts, I just ignore them. No, I won't get emotional about them.
Posted by Tvmen > Jun 22, 2015 02:04 PM | Report Abuse KC, KYY is very sucessful in his share investment , is unfair for you to pick one of the stock that didn't perform in his portfolio and write a big story on it , not the question of rich or not rich.
Put aside your hero worshiping mentality and try to read what the article is trying to convey to you. I am sure you can learn a thing or two there.
Whether I use Rimbunan Sawit of JayaTiasa, or FGVB, the valuable lessons you will learn are the same.
Go through the article again thoroughly and then come back to me and say you have learned nothing.
Anything that comes from malaysiafinance blog you should ignore as a rule. That guy is a pretender who knows nuts. Previously, I commented on one of his top picks saying he made a fundamental valuation error. Instead of acknowledging my comment or addressing it, he had quietly deleted it by the next morning. Then shortly after, he also quietly dropped that counter from his top pick list, giving some other BS reason. In actual fact, he had overlooked a simple accounting/valuation adjustment which vastly overstated that company's future maintainable earnings. Readers follow him at your own peril.
A lot of people worship rich people. When KYY first surfaced, many people treated him like God. Everything he said, people will heap praises on him (for what ? He is not going to give you a single sen). I was the first one to distance myself (cough cough, claim credit) ------- Posted by kcchongnz > Jun 22, 2015 03:14 PM | Report Abuse
Posted by Tvmen > Jun 22, 2015 02:04 PM | Report Abuse KC, KYY is very sucessful in his share investment , is unfair for you to pick one of the stock that didn't perform in his portfolio and write a big story on it , not the question of rich or not rich.
Put aside your hero worshiping mentality and try to read what the article is trying to convey to you. I am sure you can learn a thing or two there.
Just to sum it up. Like KC says, it's not about personality but his honest views on margin financing. Congrats to those who profited from margin financing but it is KC's hope and wish that the newbies especially, should not take this option in view of the high risk. trade and invest according to your affordability. Don't let losses affect your your everyday life - in work or in relationships with family and friends.
KC s value investing knowledge sharing and writing is the best in i3 investor, very good for youngster and beginner to learn and be guided the correct way ! After reading most of his analysis and write ups , I don't even hesitate a second, straight away emailed him, paid him the full package fee (incredibly cheap) and joined his private course !! Keep it up , KC !
KYY is no super investor though he likes to make out he is one. He is actually a big speculator by retail standards, taking a large position in selected stocks first and then start promoting them. As for his charitable activities, lots of bragging but little money actually goes out. Some people think he is an old conman, recycling himself time and time again with each new stock he picks. His present promotions are Latitude and VS Industry. Woe to those buy at current levels for when he sells, the stock price will drop like a stone. Ask those who followed him in RSawit, JTiasa or Mudajaya.
WOW! This is a great, high-quality post you've written here. Makes my casual researching at i3investor today worthwhile.
"To me, it is more important to learn from the mistakes of super investors, rather than their success. " <-- True. As well as learning from our own mistakes. By not repeating these, there will definitely be less losses. And bigger winners. One of my mistakes - I tend to get out way too early with a winning position. And then see the counter going up significantly higher.
Be open-minded, honest and willing to listen to others' opinions - we will be more successful, more consistent as a result.
But you have to look at the price. if the price is right, I think it is a good investment. Many people can't differentiate what is price, and what is value.
==Quote== Well, I never say one cannot use margin finance. It is his prerogative. But never encourage the pubic to use margin finance and this I will emphasize again and again as I view it as a good maxim to be propagated to our younger generation. ==Unquote==
Never, never use margin financing is the right approach as investing is about long haul, long term. The carrying interest can kill you. Never invest with OPM, like what is happening in Shanghai past few weeks. It can make up super rich and also can make you a beggar overnight if you are highly margin.
Pledged securities, Margin Financing, are specialized tools for the super rich who has cash-flow turnaround but not for those who don't have.
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Posted by cpng > 2015-06-21 21:13 | Report Abuse
一而再,再而三,以他为例子,老头子佛都有火。
还是你有种!