kcchongnz blog
Overconfidence, Market uncertainty, Portfolio Diversification and Leverage kcchongnz
I have been writing some articles with very critical comments about some stocks which I truly think are totally rubbish like these.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/45373.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/59866.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/66355.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/67199.jsp
These articles are just my opinions and I could be wrong (but not yet), but they were generally well accepted by all readers in i3investor because they were written to share knowledge and learn from each other. They were written to discuss about issues, and not about people.
However, I used to have great reservation in writing articles giving comments about some investment strategies of some well-respected people, and I tried to be cautious because they seem to hurt the feeling of their followers, as many treat them as idols. For example, don’t talk anything bad about what happened to icap. TTB’s followers will get agitated.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/64846.jsp
And do not give negative comments of the stocks ColdEye had owned before even though he had made some mistakes which we can learned from, although it was an old portfolio of his:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/76272.jsp
ColeEye is the local investor I most respect of, No. 1. For my course participants, the first thing I do is to distribute a eBookk of his and encourage all participants to read it first before each course officially starts. I do respect, but not idolize any guru in investing. I don’t think ColdEye even mind when I critically commented on his stocks in that portfolio. He is a much bigger man than that, I strongly believe. But we can learned from his mistakes. I believe if he reads i3investors, he would even share with us his mistakes and give us tips on how to avoid those mistakes. To me, it is more important to learn from the mistakes of super investors, rather than their success. We will learn more. But why are their followers so agitated?
See when I gave some negative comments on a stock called V.S Industries, a stock promoted by another super investor in Bursa?
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/76875.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/77138.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/77274.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/77720.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/77884.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/77938.jsp
I didn’t say V.S is not good but just mentioned a few concerns about the business and a number of his followers jumped on me. To tell you the truth, this super investor is also an idol of mine. I respect him, not in his stock investment and margin financing advice though, but as a senior citizen and a senior in my engineering profession, and his immense social and philanthropic contributions to the society.
Yeah, too many threads until he was “angry’ with me, as told by one of my friends here. Sorry, my intention was never to make him angry, as I have said, I respect him, but just to present my view. I thought it may be also good for him to know opposite views, maybe not him but others. Who knows?
Today, I would like to talk about how we can learn from him, more specifically his mistakes in investing so that we can avoid some of the pitfalls in investing. May be he could also chip in to teach us some lessons. Don’t you think these are more useful lessons? Your critical comments are welcomed.
The cognitive bias of overconfidence
Confidence is a quality personal trait for our career and whatever we do. When we have confidence, good results can be achieved easier. For example, if we are confident, we can do better in public speaking or networking. In investing, I believe one can do better too if he has the confidence to stand away from the crowd, provided he has the right experience, knowledge and the proper approach.
Overconfidence may be a healthy attribute too. It makes us feel good about ourselves, creating a positive framework with which to get through life's experiences. Unfortunately, being overconfident of our investment skills can lead to some disastrous results in investing in the stock market.
Let us look at these statements in the blog below:
http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.co.nz/2011/11/recommending-stock-now.html
Quote: [R. Sawit: In all my life, I have never been surer of making money than now in buying of R Sawit.
I have studied almost all the plantation stocks and in my opinion R. Sawit is the cheapest in terms of NTA and its profit growth prospect in the next few years. ……
Since the rights issues and the bonus issues were listed on 9th Nov, the daily volume traded has increased to a level that has not seen before. It closed at RM 0.83 on 9th Nov 2011. ……
As you know, I do not or very seldom recommend people to buy any share. But in this case, I am doing it because I strongly believe this share is the cheapest plantation company in terms of NTA and profit growth prospect in the next few years which is the single most important criterion in share selection.
Most of the palm trees are below 10 years old and their plan to continue planting on their remaining about 23,545 ha in the next 3 years. Imagine the increase value of this additional planted area?
………. Which business can give you more than 100% profit margin?
Total planted acreage is 49,300 ha. The cost per ha is 108672 million divided by 49,300 = Rm 21,756.
IOI announces about 3 months ago that they are buying about 11,900 ha of oil palm plantation from Dutaland Bhd for Rm 830 million cash = Rm 69,740 per ha.] Unquote 10th November 2011
Rimbunan Sawit’s share price did rise up to an adjusted price of about RM1.20 6 months later when the retail investors were chasing its bonus (free shares) and rights issues in mid-February 2012. However, its share price has since retreated by 56% to 52.5 sen at the close on 19th June 2015, from almost 4 years ago, while the broad market has a total return of 28% during the same period as shown in Figure 1 below. Of course we know who the people who made big money are when the share price ran up from 80 sen to RM1.20, and who those who got stuck with a hot potato are. No prize for guessing right. What happened to the “cheapest in terms of NTA and its profit growth prospect in the next few years.” stock?
Many issues were raised and commented in the blog at that time, but all brushed aside, due to the overconfidence of the blog owner and the writer. Among the issues raised were:
- Was the value based on per hectare of land area comparable between that of DutaLand which is in the Klang Valley, and that of RSawit in Sarawak?
- Are the management equally capable, and as credible, IOI and RSawit?
- Are their soil conditions, yields comparable?
- A comment here which was so critical, Blue Angel said...
I think you have "forgotten" to take into account dilutive impacts of preference shareholders converting to ordinary shares. If taking that into account, trailing PE for RSawit should be around 25x now, more expensive than Genting Plantation or any other big cap plantation stocks.
- Another one here, K C said...
Dali,
Can you please answer Blue angel's concern? If you are not sure, can you get back to KYY? I know you are not obliged to but I think you are responsible to clarify it. The irredeemable convertible preference shares are more than the ordinary shares before the right exercise. This means that the number of shares eventually will be more than doubled the 1300 m shares mentioned! A huge overstatement of its earnings per share potential
- How were the trees of RSawit planted? Were they at first just simply grew everyway wildly, and how to compare with IOI’s modern planting technology?
- Numerous others issues
Marker uncertainty
The most fatal oversight is negligence of the uncertainty of the market, the uncertainty of the palm oil price movement, trying to project and extrapolate a rosy prospect of the palm oil price in the future, instead of recognizing the cyclical nature of commodity prices and the power of mean reverting. Its price has dropped by 37% from USD1053 in November 2011 to USD662 per tonne now. Ignoring the market uncertainty, the competitions from soya oil, and thinking that trees grow to the sky itself is a form of fatal overconfidence.
Failure to diversify
Overconfidence also results in an investor feeling too bullish about a particular sector and concentrate all his eggs in one basket. Consider these statements:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/49099.jsp
[Koon Yew Yin 27th March 2014
About 80% of my total investment is on the plantation sector. I have Kulim, FGV, SOP, TH Plantation and Jaya Tiasa and their closing prices are Rm 3.40, 4.46, 6.40, 2.00 and 2.75 respectively. I must warn you that if you decide to buy, you are doing it at your own risk. ]
I did write a piece on FGVB 7 months ago when FGVB was at RM4.14. I am not sure if anyone took any heed on it.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/66355.jsp
These are the closing price of those plantation stocks on 19th June 2015. Kulim 2.55 (-25%), FGVB 1.75 (-61%), SOP 4.85 (-24%), THP 1.58 (-21%), and Jtiasa 1.60 (-42%).
It really pays to diversify. Don’t you agree? Or is it still wise to put 80% of one’s investment in just one sector? What is the cost of overconfidence in investing?
The cost of overconfidence
We have seen that overconfidence cause one to concentrate investments in a single stock or a single sector and fail to have a diversified portfolio of stocks in various sector in case he may be wrong as the investment world is full of uncertainties. Overconfidence causes one overly optimistic assessment of one’s knowledge and ability or control over a situation, and buying risky investments because he believes they are not risky. Overconfidence also causes one to seek only evidence confirming his own views and ignore contradicting evidences, and worst of all ridicule others for giving some good contradictory opinions which may be good for him.
Leverage, the fatal blow
What about if one combines overconfidence with leverage, say 50% in margin finance which one is very proud of making money all this while by doing so? He will lose all his equity and still left with some debts to pay the investment banks. If the market drop 30%, one needs to gain 60% to get back to normal, provided the investment banks don't force sell your stocks.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/44344.jsp
When you combine overconfidence and leverage, you get some pretty interesting results.
"When leverage works, it magnifies your gains. Your spouse thinks you're clever, and your neighbors get envious," explained Buffett in his 2010 shareholder letter.
"But leverage is addictive. Once having profited from its wonders, very few people retreat to more conservative practices. And as we all learned in third grade — and some relearned in 2008 — any series of positive numbers, however impressive the numbers may be, evaporates when multiplied by a single zero. History tells us that leverage all too often produces zeroes, even when it is employed by very smart people."
Conclusions
In my opinion, it pays to have good humility in investing, recognize our shortcoming that we are far from invincible and could be wrong, and get the free lunch in diversification, as a defence against uncertainties, because investing is full of uncertainties, something we can never foresee. Generating superior return is certainly an important aim, but safeguarding assets and protecting them from losses is just as crucial.
Well, I never say one cannot use margin finance. It is his prerogative. But never encourage the pubic to use margin finance and this I will emphasize again and again as I view it as a good maxim to be propagated to our younger generation. Invest safely with your excess money, for long term wealth building.
I sincerely hope this article is viewed in a positive light as a mean of learning from past experience, for all of us.
For those who are interested in investing in a safe way for long term wealth building, please contact me for a fee-based online course at
ckc14invest@gmail.com
K C Chong (21st June 2015)
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Discussions
6 people like this. Showing 37 of 37 comments
Fortunebullz, I like this sentence "If you are good, probable you don't need it! But if you are bad, you only double or triple your bad luck", very true.
2015-06-21 21:34
When I read hor all this margin financing, I think to my self hor, spend time with family or hv a cup of nice coffee better than argue hor because got no answer one. Mr Luk everyday got opinion, I advice him to drink coffee with me
2015-06-21 21:38
I think on the question of taking margin finance...perhaps its clearer for some to get the message if we ask:
Is the money you are about to gain even if its 10 x the value you are about to invest by margin financing, worth when you weigh in the risk of 'losing it completely and spend the whole life working to get back your capital' - especially for youngsters.
Is such risk taking behaviour (independent on how high the value you may gain or how confident you are on your prediction)...worth it?
And....can your investment in stocks ever come close to the certainty of getting money in investing in property, land or fixed deposit, or own business- though may be a small return?
Remember we are talking about certainty here - not the return value.
'uncertainty cannot be completely traded off with potential gain'
2015-06-21 22:48
and...one should never 'stake' more than a certain fraction of their net assets value, i.e if one takes margin finance they must be prepared that they will lose it completely and thee total loss is still below say 30% person of their orginal net asset value.
So for youngster this 'loss cap' should be even lower - say 10%. The basic needs of house, car etc should never be compromised.
When you already have 'excess money' more than what would be required for normal retirement....then its upto you to gamble with the extra money.
2015-06-21 23:05
Posted by Icon8888 > Jun 21, 2015 10:47 PM | Report Abuse
Fortunebullz u r right - if u are good, no need margin
The above statement caries weight in this thread from both forumers, icon8888 and Fortunebullz as I have arguments with both you guys before, and surprise with your agreement. Not actually surprise if we are looking at the real issue, that should we tell the general public to use margin finance?
I remember my argument with icon8888 on the same issue and he used margin finance and he did well. I had no issue on that. Who am I to tell him not to when he made it? To be truthful, I used leverage too in 2009 when I re-mortgage my house to get a loan, and I invested all in Bursa then. You know lah, we are small timer, kuching kurat, where got investment banks offer us tens of million of margin finance?
I did make very good amplified profit with that loan if you have a look at my oldest portfolio which had gained 120% in two and a half years. What about the gain from 6 years ago using OPM? But am I proud of it? No! Did I tell the public that I have made big by doing so and encourage them to do so, knowing then it could all be due to luck?
Does it matter if I invest say less than a million compared to the big timers using tens of million? Do they carry more weight and more truth in telling the public to use OPM, than us kuching kurat?
We must have an idea of what the message we are projecting to the public, especially to our younger generations, that using OPM is not good for their well being, and the society in general. The general public and the younger generation!
Have we got the bad experience before like the huge leverage in 2008 in the US sub-prime crisis, and even now in thing like 1MDB at home, even in corporate?
2015-06-22 03:18
All newbies, take heed of the wise words from KC Chong. Treat market with respect, because financial crises ALWAYS come like a thief in the night. It will always be unexpected. Even with their fancy degrees and doctorates, very few economists foresee the collapse of the subprime mortgage in 2007. Don't get yourself in a situation you cannot recover from if a black swan event happens, and always expect it to happen once of twice in your lifetime.
2015-06-22 08:23
I share your views KC as I was one of those who bought R Sawit based on that bullish recommendation of it being the cheapest plantation stock in world and got burn in the process. Have sold at loss but still holding some. I don't blame any one but take it as expensive lesson learned.
2015-06-22 09:56
"Here the problem is that using leverage—buying with borrowed money—doesn’t make anything a better investment or increase the probability of gains. It merely magnifies whatever gains or losses may materialize.And it introduces the risk of ruin if a portfolio fails to satisfy a contractual value test and lenders can demand their money back at a time when prices and illiquidity are depressed. Over the years leverage has been associated with high returns, but also with the most spectacular meltdowns and crashes." ~The Most Important Thing Illuminated.
2015-06-22 11:24
Posted by thteh > Jun 22, 2015 09:56 AM | Report Abuse
I share your views KC as I was one of those who bought R Sawit based on that bullish recommendation of it being the cheapest plantation stock in world and got burn in the process. Have sold at loss but still holding some. I don't blame any one but take it as expensive lesson learned.
thteh, glad you share my view, but I like your last sentence more:
"I don't blame any one but take it as expensive lesson learned."
Unlike this guy below, he chooses the five stocks as shown, only two of them are in my portfolio below:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/78390.jsp
The two, Plenitude +21.1%, which is twice better return than the broad market return of 12%, and Pantech is the only under performer, but it is still positive return at +3.7%.
The other two company warrants, uh, he was so "lucky", i only shared how warrants are being valued, and explain what financial risk management is being used with warrants, and he went to buy those two warrants at peak prices with margin finance and got "pok Kai". And then he blamed me!
Why didn't he follow me and buy the portfolio of 10 stock and made 120% in two and a half years, but instead punt with margin finance on the two warrants which were supposed to be used as teaching purpose. This is really a six sigma event!
[Posted by bad_stocks > Jun 21, 2015 09:20 PM | Report Abuse
What will happen if my margin portfolio have stocks like BIMB-W, MRCB-W, Padini, Pantech & Plenitude? ]
He need to have another new and better id. bad_stocks really bad luck.
2015-06-22 11:42
If KYY is not good in his investment as pointed by KC, why KYY is so rich ? It is not possible to be 100% accurate in stocks selection , just look as VS !!!
2015-06-22 11:59
Posted by Tvmen > Jun 22, 2015 11:59 AM | Report Abuse
If KYY is not good in his investment as pointed by KC, why KYY is so rich ? It is not possible to be 100% accurate in stocks selection , just look as VS !!!
Please read what the thread is trying to share with you. You will learn something for sure.
My articles is always not about personality, but issues, and sharing of knowledge and experience.
2015-06-22 12:31
Posted by Good_point_ > Jun 22, 2015 01:05 PM | Report Abuse
If KC Chong always get high return as his blogs suggest why he need to ask for money from i3 forumers for his course? Why he is not as rich as KYY?
Although yours is a new id, I like to entertain your this question.
Yes, I am not as rich as KKY, that is for sure. Few people here can even come close to the wealth of KKY, as we have read from the blogs.
High return as in my blog? Yes, that is for sure, but that is in percentage term. In absolute term it is far far away from what KKY has in term of wealth. But does that mean a wealthier person is a better human being than a poor person, and must be accorded with higher standing and respect than the poor people?
So I am a poor person, and I teach people with my time and expertise. I don't cheat, and I don't steal. Do you have any problem with honest people earning a living? And why do you have a problem?
2015-06-22 13:28
KC, aiya.. dont waste time responding to these type of comments, just flag them and let admin handle... you dont need to justify to these clowns...
The amount of articles and knowledge you have shared in this forum itself is worth more than all these braggers who come here flaunting their wealth like tin kosong... or telling people they bought at the lowest and sell at the highest... who cares how much money one has ? Forum is a place to exchange information and share knowledge...
2015-06-22 13:50
KC, KYY is very sucessful in his share investment , is unfair for you to pick one of the stock that didn't perform in his portfolio and write a big story on it , not the question of rich or not rich.
2015-06-22 14:04
Tvmen, nothing against KYY, he may be very successful yes, but dont you think its useful to learn from some of his mistakes which is what this article is about ? On the flip side, is it also fair to say that just because someone made big money on 1 or 2 stocks, that makes him a super investor ?
2015-06-22 14:10
Mr. Chong,you do not need to explain yourself. Your intention of educating is very valuable.
2015-06-22 14:25
From KC reply , you can feel the heat, it started with his comment on VS , VS go up temperature go up .
2015-06-22 14:32
Posted by NOBY > Jun 22, 2015 01:50 PM | Report Abuse
KC, aiya.. dont waste time responding to these type of comments, just flag them and let admin handle... you dont need to justify to these clowns...
The amount of articles and knowledge you have shared in this forum itself is worth more than all these braggers who come here flaunting their wealth like tin kosong... or telling people they bought at the lowest and sell at the highest... who cares how much money one has ? Forum is a place to exchange information and share knowledge...
Noby, when I write an article, I truly want to share something which I think it is useful and important. A writer likes to have readers and also comments, the more constructive are the comments, the better, at least for me. Hence I have never flagged a single comment in any of my 137 articles. I try to answer as much as possible, as some of the articles can be misconstrued, and they often were misinterpreted. For those meaningless posts, I just ignore them. No, I won't get emotional about them.
2015-06-22 15:05
Posted by Tvmen > Jun 22, 2015 02:04 PM | Report Abuse
KC, KYY is very sucessful in his share investment , is unfair for you to pick one of the stock that didn't perform in his portfolio and write a big story on it , not the question of rich or not rich.
Put aside your hero worshiping mentality and try to read what the article is trying to convey to you. I am sure you can learn a thing or two there.
Whether I use Rimbunan Sawit of JayaTiasa, or FGVB, the valuable lessons you will learn are the same.
Go through the article again thoroughly and then come back to me and say you have learned nothing.
2015-06-22 15:14
Anything that comes from malaysiafinance blog you should ignore as a rule. That guy is a pretender who knows nuts. Previously, I commented on one of his top picks saying he made a fundamental valuation error. Instead of acknowledging my comment or addressing it, he had quietly deleted it by the next morning. Then shortly after, he also quietly dropped that counter from his top pick list, giving some other BS reason. In actual fact, he had overlooked a simple accounting/valuation adjustment which vastly overstated that company's future maintainable earnings. Readers follow him at your own peril.
2015-06-22 18:42
A lot of people worship rich people. When KYY first surfaced, many people treated him like God. Everything he said, people will heap praises on him (for what ? He is not going to give you a single sen). I was the first one to distance myself (cough cough, claim credit)
-------
Posted by kcchongnz > Jun 22, 2015 03:14 PM | Report Abuse
Posted by Tvmen > Jun 22, 2015 02:04 PM | Report Abuse
KC, KYY is very sucessful in his share investment , is unfair for you to pick one of the stock that didn't perform in his portfolio and write a big story on it , not the question of rich or not rich.
Put aside your hero worshiping mentality and try to read what the article is trying to convey to you. I am sure you can learn a thing or two there.
2015-06-22 18:46
Just to sum it up. Like KC says, it's not about personality but his honest views on margin financing. Congrats to those who profited from margin financing but it is KC's hope and wish that the newbies especially, should not take this option in view of the high risk. trade and invest according to your affordability. Don't let losses affect your your everyday life - in work or in relationships with family and friends.
2015-06-22 19:15
KC s value investing knowledge sharing and writing is the best in i3 investor, very good for youngster and beginner to learn and be guided the correct way !
After reading most of his analysis and write ups , I don't even hesitate a second, straight away emailed him, paid him the full package fee (incredibly cheap) and joined his private course !!
Keep it up , KC !
2015-06-22 20:03
KYY is no super investor though he likes to make out he is one. He is actually a big speculator by retail standards, taking a large position in selected stocks first and then start promoting them. As for his charitable activities, lots of bragging but little money actually goes out. Some people think he is an old conman, recycling himself time and time again with each new stock he picks. His present promotions are Latitude and VS Industry. Woe to those buy at current levels for when he sells, the stock price will drop like a stone. Ask those who followed him in RSawit, JTiasa or Mudajaya.
2015-06-23 11:07
WOW! This is a great, high-quality post you've written here. Makes my casual researching at i3investor today worthwhile.
"To me, it is more important to learn from the mistakes of super investors, rather than their success. " <-- True. As well as learning from our own mistakes. By not repeating these, there will definitely be less losses. And bigger winners. One of my mistakes - I tend to get out way too early with a winning position. And then see the counter going up significantly higher.
Be open-minded, honest and willing to listen to others' opinions - we will be more successful, more consistent as a result.
2015-06-23 16:53
China a lot of people start jumping from high floor now ma
wish malaysia won't have much
2015-06-23 17:50
Posted by NinjaInPyjamas > Jun 23, 2015 10:50 PM | Report Abuse
KC, what is yr thought on fimacorp?
Which has better EPV?
My thought on fimacorp in term of company business is the same as my thought my Kumpulan fima here:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/78580.jsp
But you have to look at the price. if the price is right, I think it is a good investment. Many people can't differentiate what is price, and what is value.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/45032.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/75985.jsp
2015-06-24 07:49
==Quote==
Well, I never say one cannot use margin finance. It is his prerogative. But never encourage the pubic to use margin finance and this I will emphasize again and again as I view it as a good maxim to be propagated to our younger generation.
==Unquote==
Never, never use margin financing is the right approach as investing is about long haul, long term. The carrying interest can kill you. Never invest with OPM, like what is happening in Shanghai past few weeks. It can make up super rich and also can make you a beggar overnight if you are highly margin.
Pledged securities, Margin Financing, are specialized tools for the super rich who has cash-flow turnaround but not for those who don't have.
2015-06-24 08:12
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一而再,再而三,以他为例子,老头子佛都有火。
还是你有种!
2015-06-21 21:13