Posted by donfollowblindly > 2015-11-08 18:14 | Report Abuse

The cheaper the stocks I can buy the more money I can save is what I practised. What can I do with money saved?
1) Buy more other stocks.
2) Buy same stocks with higher quantity.
3) Spend on other things.

Posted by klee > 2015-11-08 18:52 | Report Abuse

Wise.

Posted by pisanggoreng > 2015-11-08 21:16 | Report Abuse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnLHsIlpse4

Posted by valuelurker > 2015-11-09 09:23 | Report Abuse

The ability of a business to control its prices and thereby margins gives rise to a moat. Walk into a Padini or Brands Outlet store locally and see for yourself.

The Padini share might be cheap now due to DY and MOS, but I don't expect it to be going forward. They will just not be able to compete on a cost basis - Uniqlo and H&M a prime example. They are hanging on a thread via their shoes - Vincci and perhaps their cheaper office attire segment. Hence, drop in revenues and subsequently profits and share price might prove to be a negative going forward. I see no upside, only stagnant price in the mid/long term

Posted by feiloh > 2015-11-09 12:23 | Report Abuse

Mr Chong...thanks for sharing....

Posted by shinado > 2015-11-09 20:56 | Report Abuse

valuelurker, I think you got it wrong there. Padini don't really depend on Vincci & office attire segment alone to survive. Below is extracted from Annual Report 2015:

2014 2015
Vincci
Revenue 206.1m 199.6m
Profit 17.6m 12.5m

Padini
Revenue 273.4m 316.2m
Profit 43.2m 40.3m

Seed
Revenue 91.4m 98.3m
Profit 8.3m 3.7m

Yee Fong Hung (Brand outlet)
Revenue 253.3m 316.1m
Profit 44.0m 44.5m

Mikihouse
Revenue 29.1m 35.5m
Profit 17.6m 2.0m

As you can see, the main revenue makers and profit generators are Padini and Brand Outlet. Whereas the rest of the segments experience a drop in profit, Brand Outlet's profit continue to increase. They have continued to expand Brand Outlet stores aggressively. The way I see it, Brand Outlet might just take over Padini as the main revenue and profit maker in FY 16 and beyond.

Posted by valuelurker > Nov 9, 2015 09:23 AM | Report Abuse

The ability of a business to control its prices and thereby margins gives rise to a moat. Walk into a Padini or Brands Outlet store locally and see for yourself.

The Padini share might be cheap now due to DY and MOS, but I don't expect it to be going forward. They will just not be able to compete on a cost basis - Uniqlo and H&M a prime example. They are hanging on a thread via their shoes - Vincci and perhaps their cheaper office attire segment. Hence, drop in revenues and subsequently profits and share price might prove to be a negative going forward. I see no upside, only stagnant price in the mid/long term

Posted by shinado > 2015-11-09 22:25 | Report Abuse

For the benefit of everyone who is curious, I have made some simple comparison between Padini and Uniqlo: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/shinado/85904.jsp

Posted by odie88 > 2015-11-22 00:29 | Report Abuse

Nice article and fundamental analysis with DDM, however a dividend growth of 10% is way too optimistic. 10% discount rate would be the same thing. But anyway, its only my point of view having that margin of padini continue to struggle.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-11-22 04:05 | Report Abuse

Posted by odie88 > Nov 22, 2015 12:29 AM | Report Abuse
Nice article and fundamental analysis with DDM, however a dividend growth of 10% is way too optimistic. 10% discount rate would be the same thing. But anyway, its only my point of view having that margin of padini continue to struggle.


Good comments. Those are the inherent problems with discount cash flow analysis. A change in discount rate and cash flows estimation, which is hard to do, change the intrinsic value by a substantial amount.

However, DCFA using DDM in my opinion is often more accurate because the estimation of dividend is not so uncertain as the change in free cash flows.

FCF fluctuates hugely every year, but dividend payment doesn't. Profitable companies do not want to reduce dividend to give a negative signal. As long as the company is able to pay the dividends, and one is conservative in the assumptions, one can be more comfortable with it.

Posted by 3iii > 2015-11-27 10:57 | Report Abuse

Very clearly written article on valuation. Though one can dispute on the assumptions, the method is sound. Padini announced a very good latest quarterly result.