Posted by Tan Kin Thien > 2015-12-02 15:35 | Report Abuse

SUpport !

Posted by yctee > 2015-12-02 15:47 | Report Abuse

Good analysis

Posted by Tom > 2015-12-02 16:38 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by tc88 > 2015-12-02 17:07 | Report Abuse

Sound like author alr sold Genetec? haha....he wan buy cheaper?

Posted by RicheHo > 2015-12-02 17:11 | Report Abuse

haha tc88, I am not a shareholder of Genetec and did not bought any of it before :P

Posted by tony89 > 2015-12-03 01:03 | Report Abuse

However, when the catalyst of beneficiary of weakening of MYR no longer exists.

Have been thinking about tis recently. What will happen to those counters that price have gone up lots due to this?. Can someone enlighten me?

Posted by yongyou > 2015-12-03 08:15 | Report Abuse

Thanks for sharing

Posted by scottlee > 2015-12-03 09:25 | Report Abuse

You really know how the thing work..

Posted by Ezra_Investor > 2015-12-03 16:16 | Report Abuse

@tony89 - it depends on the companies itself. You must understand, weak MYR/ strong USD is a double edged sword.

If the company's business does not solely rely on the forex gain, then all should be good. Otherwise, the risk of reversal is there.

Take for example, not all of furniture stocks are riding on the weak MYR. Some companies have good business moats or good expansions stories such as Hevea, etc, which should not be affected that much even if ringgit were to rebound strongly.

Stock market is a cyclical thing, few years ago the trend is properties sector, but nowadays they are not, so picking the correct company is important.

What you want to buy, are those kind of companies which are more resilient.

Posted by tony89 > 2015-12-04 01:14 | Report Abuse

thanks ezra :)

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-01-03 00:40 | Report Abuse

Very good analysis! It is useful.

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-01-03 00:54 | Report Abuse

who is this richie Ho?
good job.

Hopes it saves some people some headaches.

all those Comintel players, have you done similar homework?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-01-03 03:53 | Report Abuse

Riche is a 20+ young man Actuarial Science student

If you appreciate his works, can subscribe by paying a small amount

Not expensive

He wants to earn some pocket money, to build up his cdpital base

I already subscribed

Always supportive of young people like that

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-01-03 03:59 | Report Abuse

He started so young, with exactly the right skill sets and concept

great future

I started punting at 28

Now I am 68

Hope I can have RM100 mil when I am 84, just like Uncle Koon

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-01-03 06:53 | Report Abuse

There is always new rules made by new people
It is nothing surprise to see a brand new rule setting by now,
some people want a rule to compare in quarter basis some in annual basic some want to see in decade basic, and they also people care about prospective basis and also longer prospective, one need to be very clear that they don't want to be in the middle of the two rules.

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-01-03 07:04 | Report Abuse

Forex gain is the new set of rules set by new people
Most of my top pick is forex beneficiary I will expect thing to work out good when I had a good start that is stick with the same rule, a good start contribute to 50% of your chance to success, another 50% come from holding power.

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-01-03 07:14 | Report Abuse

Make a point to see what the market is overlooking
Shutterstock
The truth about valuing stocks is that so much more is happening in subtext and behind the scenes. As we enter 2016, then, it’s worth looking deeper at what matters and what is overlooked when it comes to market valuation.

In a word, context matters most when we talk about valuation.


It should go without saying that even the most popular valuation measures are just data points in a vacuum. But we seem to have lost sight of that amid unscrupulous salesmen masquerading as “experts,” claiming the stock market is “about 80% overvalued.”



In 2016, don't let volatile markets cloud your financial plans(3:25)
How can households best manage and prepare their finances going into 2016 in the face of volatile markets? HighTower managing director Jordan Waxman joins Lunch Break to explain. Photo: Getty

Let’s look at McDonald’s Corp. MCD, -1.08% as a case study in how complicated and nuanced the market really is.

On the surface, I suppose 26 times earnings is indeed a bit rich for a restaurant stock that saw little profit expansion in 2015 and is actually seeing a declining top line. But forward estimates show McDonald’s shares trade at around 22 times next year’s profits — more in line with what some would call “normal.”

Of course, bears may note that sales are projected to drop next year even if profits edge up — to which bulls might respond that an impressive return on equity of more than 40% means McDonald’s can do plenty even with top-line troubles.

And besides, there’s news — namely, the all-day breakfast introduced at the beginning of the fourth quarter that will probably boost performance and lead to a nice earnings surprise. Of course, longer-term this may not be a good thing, as franchisees are already in revolt over a complicated menu and other uncomfortable corporate mandates as of late.

And so it goes, with analysis and rebuttals and speculation.

Nobody said investing was easy.

Oddly enough, however, many of the same investors who pride themselves on knowing how to read a 10-Q are refusing to do the research these days. They simply throw up their hands and say “because of valuation.”

Overlooking the future

The odd thing about many valuations is that they are based on projections of sales and earnings — and therefore are inherently flawed.

For instance, is it any wonder that oil mega-caps Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM, -0.20% and Chevron Corp. CVX, -0.14% trade at 20 times next year’s earnings? That’s because there are two ways for a high P/E at Exxon to resolve itself: either earnings come in better-than-expected to justify the current premium on its stock price, or earnings come in below targets to prove the current share price is not that out of whack after all.

What do you think is going to happen to Exxon, given these choices and the current state of oil prices?

Of course, as shocking as it may seem, Wall Street can and does occasionally offer proper guidance. That makes it all the more maddening to interpret whether forward estimates are too high or too low.

Beyond the factors that will alter the trajectory of an individual company are big-picture trends that affect sectors and asset classes.

Digging deeper into crashing crude oil prices, look at the dramatic selloff across the MLP space. Sure, it’s about oil just like Exxon, but it’s also about broader forces including the quest for yield as income-seeking investors have few alternatives.

A year ago, these master limited partnerships were hanging tough as a “safe” place to find yield, even as crude oil crashed from the mid-$90s to the mid-$50s at the end of 2014. The fact that oil has soured again surely has punished MLPs, but an equally compelling reason is the end of ZIRP as the Fed looks to “normalize” interest rates and investors may start to seek income in less-risky places. At the same time, the brutalized junk bond market ironically has made distressed “high-yield” offers more favorable to some fixed-income managers because they think they are finally being adequately compensated for risk.

And so it goes: News breaks, data is digested, and investors react. Some might be right, others might be too emotional — or just too early — to profit.

Valuation metrics surely play into these moves. But they are frequently the tail of the dog, with traders willing to pay a theoretical premium or afraid to buy at a theoretical discount based on their bigger-picture views of the future.

In other words, if valuation is driving your views of the future, instead of the future driving your views on valuation, you’re doing it wrong.

Posted by limkokboon > 2016-01-03 11:24 | Report Abuse

GENETEC is a mirror image of MQTECH. Read and see

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/800000082.jsp

MQTECH will fly too?

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-01-03 17:31 | Report Abuse

richie

.why don't get a job as analyst in a stockbroker?

doesn't that sound attractive?

Posted by RicheHo > 2016-01-03 18:40 | Report Abuse

Thanks all.

Hi desa20201956, i had no CFA qualification and i don't have any experience in analyst job. Am 24 in year 2016, wish to full time by end of tis year. I do write stock analysis as well. If you are interested, may leave ur email or send an email to richeho_92@hotmail.com

Posted by yeohhh > 2016-01-05 11:37 | Report Abuse

Really superb analysis ! thumb up !

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-01-06 15:36 | Report Abuse

I will recommend you take CFA exams. SunwayTES conducts courses, twice a year exams for part 1. Only a few thousand $. So cheap because it is mainly self studies.
You have the talent and love of this industry.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-01-10 21:46 | Report Abuse

I agree

Posted by imoogi99 > 2016-02-25 21:23 | Report Abuse

Since Genetec is story of the day, am commenting here so that this post came to light again. Read on.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-02-25 21:36 | Report Abuse

Now i know, richeho also cant be trusted???

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2016-02-25 21:38 | Report Abuse

ah plane.....don't 趁火打劫 la.....

richeHO is sincere and nice guy....... paperplane...U also nice guy at least to me

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-02-25 21:59 | Report Abuse

Haha.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-02-26 00:55 | Report Abuse

Thumbs up to Desa, good for sharing