Dont chase those oredi up a lot...take a look into those property counters 2-3 years ago....when export no longer in theme play then not easy to make money...dunno what will b the theme play in 2016
i was about to say the same thing, good observation murali, not just blindly take what people says. in this usd/myr theme, everything has been already priced in (over-valued) and when trend show sign of stagnant or reverse, time to take profit.
Posted by murali > Feb 7, 2016 09:07 AM | Report Abuse
When rm weaken abt 20% last year most of yr export counters up 200% n u never complaint up too much
exports is not a theme play. It is the only game in town. So if you don't want to buy in Dec and join the crowd, you can join in and buy when it is down as in now.
Why the only game in town?
A country in financial crisis, currency depreciated...any country, not just Malaysia, ...the only game in town is exports, earning hard currencies, the savoir and hope of the nation.
Since it is the only game in town....wouldn't it be more rewarding and safer to buy now compared to Dec?
and future movements of the ringgit? 50/ 50...maybe this, maybe that.
This is surely the time to buy the stocks that have come down....especially if this is already a filtered list of good strong companies at reasonable valuations.
Of course, those who are bearish will wait to buy lower ( or higher)....that is a perfectly reasonable attitude based on your own evaluations.
But I think this is the only game in town in 2016...it is all about the timing now
it is totally not fair to generalize all export companies in this case. Don't you know that it is the export company that have saved our country economy and make sure our current account is always positive. Agreed that some export company had gone up too much especially those with no increase of revenue but is not fair for company whose price increase due to improve earning from better revenue. We are all just lazy to go into detail and take the easy way to avoid all export company.
a lot of the export stocks are by definition labor intensive...the government has chosen the more popular road by increasing levy on foreign workers.
not very friendly to the entrepreneurs, but extremely popular with voters.
in most countries in similar situations , the government will put all their priority and tax incentives to help exporters gain foreign exchange....not this government.
Ah Koon want to sell, he will promote heavily. When you get trap and ask politely, you will get Ah Koon special summon.
Besides Murali, there are other clueless nuts like Timetokoon, CM, Tom, Up_down who are still holding Jaya Tiasa and Mudajaya. They continue to grumble, groan and mourning as if they have lost their beloved mothers.
Posted by Koon Yew Yin > Jul 7, 2014 10:06 AM | Report Abuse Lohman, I appreciate and understand your comment. My main object in saying that I bought large amount of Jaya Tiasa and Mudajaya is to show my confidence in them, although it may sound like bragging. Can you imagine what the readers will say when the price of these 2 counters come down after I boasted? I will have to find a place to hide.
Posted by timetokoon > Sep 25, 2015 02:52 PM | Report Abuse X
Koon Koon has this kind of habit, he likes to sell when asking everybody to buy...
Posted by Koon Yew Yin > August 30, 2015 Unfortunately, CPO price started to fall in June or July 2014 when JT price went up above Rm 2.70. As I said before you must not hesitate to sell when the reason to buy is no longer valid. Of course I sold as quickly as I could.
Posted by Koon Yew Yin > Jul 7, 2014 10:06 AM | Report Abuse
Lohman, I appreciate and understand your comment. My main object in saying that I bought large amount of Jaya Tiasa and Mudajaya is to show my confidence in them, although it may sound like bragging. Can you imagine what the readers will say when the price of these 2 counters come down after I boasted? I will have to find a place to hide.
Posted by timetokoon > Jan 5, 2016 09:57 AM | Report Abuse X
Ah Koon talk on Xinquan "stupid ones will lose money. As money cannot come down from the sky, the smart investors’ profit must come from those losers." "Those who have been losing money must really change their stock selection method and also their mindset." "They often criticize what I write to show that they are clever." Koon Koon lose 18% after kena conned by his accountant nephew http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/53120.jsp
Smart investors should at least possess 2nd level thinking.
In this article alone, 1st level thinking will consider which price level to enter or exit stocks mentioned here.
2nd level thinking will involve checking the motive (be it positive or negative reasons, equally likely) behind this article as well as analyzing several catchy phrases in the article. I conclude 2 most vital phrases that carry the most weight.
1. "Export manufacturers share prices dropped too much" - The 'dropped' comparison was done against strengthening of Ringgit rather than the % surge of price in recent months.
2. "when the increased profit is announced its share price will surely go up" - Two assumptions are made here: a) Increased profit and b) a definite increase in share price. 1st assumption can only be defended if one has insider's info that proves increasing profit in the quarters yet to be released to the public. 2nd assumption shall be refuted as there is no current theory that could prove a definite hike in share price.
I hope my comment will exhibit perspicacious judgement for investors.
Please do high level thinking when it comes to investing.
I suspect KYY started to dispose these 5 counter and acquire new counter slowly...i am very sure Kyy will post in new article with his new share after he is ready to dispose again
Do you know that the highest level thinking says it is a waste of time to pick stocks......that is what they teach you in finance classes.....they call it the perfect market.
You doubt the integrity of an 83 years old man? An 83 years man trade like a 23 years old young ciku.
------------------ Koon Bee 27 posts Posted by Koon Bee > Feb 7, 2016 11:44 AM | Report Abuse
I suspect KYY started to dispose these 5 counter and acquire new counter slowly...i am very sure Kyy will post in new article with his new share after he is ready to dispose again
I believe what you mentioned is termed as Market Theory (efficient market hypothesis) in finance. My suggestion of critical thinking and layering of thoughts have nothing to do with finance courses.
Posted by Koon Bee > Feb 7, 2016 11:44 AM | Report Abuse
I suspect KYY started to dispose these 5 counter and acquire new counter slowly...i am very sure Kyy will post in new article with his new share after he is ready to dispose again
Guys no one force you to buy or sell. Be rational thinking. Do not talk ill of others especially during Chinese New Year festival season. At least one thing for sure that mr. KYY had donated so much to education. Something you and I will not ne able to do in our whole life. So do respect and be gentleman on agree to disagreement. Wishing all a very happy and prosperous Chinese lunar year.
Luckily I sold Chinwell last week. Now no more KYY list stock. Play safe la. Just wondering why no promotion during 2014; now heavily promotion. A bit ironic isn't it ?????
Almost all the counters mentioned by KYY are with RSI of 30 (oversold) and below. Their quarterly results will be out by the end of this month and KYY is most probably right in saying this quarterly profits is unlikely to be affected by the recent appreciation of RM. These stocks are fundamentally right and technically, they are screaming buy.
Ringgit will plunge again soon, no doubt. but export counters will not get the premium valuation it enjoyed last December to early Jan again as the Msian overall market will get hit soon
Wait for China devluation and more defaults in commodity producing nations to trigger furhter selloff. The Msian market is a ticking bomb not, dropping 10-15% is quite possible anytime, hence there is much risk to be totally invested now.
Conserve 50% cash now and long only oil palm stocks
The ways of investing which I believe is logical and will make profits. However all assets prices are subject to a special risk called market risk. U will not be able to diversify this away no matter what you do. This is a true fact.
1. Knowledge is power. Learn n understand info. Always read info and articles with an open mind. If u Dun believe ask why. Go find out if true or false. Trouble is..ppl either blindly follow or blind condemn..why? Shame of losing? Fear?cannot admit mistakes? U only got yourself to blame for not listening or blindly following .... It's your money. .Hence your responsibility if u cannot understand that than u really have no brains to invest.
2. Market timing. I notice there's a lot of uneducated ppl looking for ways to make a quick profit by going for market timing. Unless by are a hedge fund with lots of resources..tough luck. U just can't do it. All proper sifu here will even advise on it. Even if u manage to go in properly.can u go out properly as well? Hence just find an average price to go in. Eg 1 year average price or low point. If u still ask ppl for easy way in. Dun blame if u lose money
3.nerves of steel. Markets are always volatile. U think Klee is bad? Look at China and especially the fx markets. Those are volatile. Can't stomach it? Then u have no business to be in it the first place. Idiots. If your stock u have is good u will even buy more when it goes down!
4.believe in yourself n confidence.that's why u must research properly and be confident. If u are u will hold on n not sell over simple volatility like the exchange rate. Lol. This is a damn good opportunity!!
5. Hold a portfolio. Do not put all your eggs in one basket. Buy at least 5. Remember market risk this will never ever go away. Can anyone honestly say they can predict that the oil price drop 2 years ago like shit? Never. Even if 2 stocks go down..at least 3 makes money is ok
6. Emotions n pride. This is the downfall of all ppl. U can lunci say u make money..true but the stock market is merciless. It doesn't care about your emotions or feelings..so if u get caught it's only your fault. Detach n cut loss if the company loses money. Do not hold on to it. I make a mistake on this in Gpacket. I lost a lot of money. Buck up n move on. Cut loss. If u can't then u may even lose all.
Even if u are a super investor u may still lose some money nobody is super lucky all the time. That's why u have to be prudent n careful n aalways monitor. The world's economy changes all the time. Hence we also need to Chg. There's no foolproof strategy in investing .only constant learning n detachment from emotions.
Good luck. PS. Know of John paulsen in the US? He made billions betting against sub prime in the US. Now he's losing money. I guess he got overconfident n greedy.
It is an educated guess plus foresight and experience,yes the appreciation of Myr is small but it is a sign of things to come. It is a long term reversal, with the foreign workers levy cost in going to go up. What goes up must come down, not everyday is a Sunday. At current price there is not much upside. 2016 earnings would be less than 2015. Game Over
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Tom
2,984 posts
Posted by Tom > 2016-02-07 08:55 | Report Abuse
where is hevea?