Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 22:08 | Report Abuse

ik059

Yes ah?
That's what Mr. KE Tan told me. In any case please go check up on JTIASA WEBSITE.

It has over 300,000 ACRES Of PLANTATION LANDS. FAR MORE THAN ALL OTHER PLANTATION COMPANIES. Only FGV Has a little bit more than JTiasa.

Posted by Seek > 2016-03-09 22:18 | Report Abuse

Calvin, wrong figure.
Ik059 figure is right.
One acre can get 10 tons per year average.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 22:21 | Report Abuse

Seek from Segamat?

Yes! I love Segamat Durians!

I think I need to check with KE Tan again tomorrow.

Thks.

Posted by Seek > 2016-03-09 22:24 | Report Abuse

First 3years Palm tree no production.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 22:24 | Report Abuse

Ik059,

I think you are right. If 10 tons a year according to Seek, that's Rm25,550 yield for One Acre Land?

And If You Study the Land Cost of Pulau Bruit owned by JTiasa. It has a book value of around Rm170 per acre only.

So there is Bright Future for JTiasa

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 22:27 | Report Abuse

Ik059

KE Tan got lots of Palm Oil Lands in Johor. He won't sell even one acre of it. However, there is an advert about Oil Palm Lands being offered for only Rm90,000 an acre in Labis. What do you think? Is it cheap?

Posted by Balatika Hunter > 2016-03-09 22:34 | Report Abuse

Sir, do you know where land below the wind located? And Tan Sri Tiong group of companies located? In case kitak sik tau bah, plz visit sarawak and sabah. org malaya verly annoying, my colleague once told, he was going to Sabah in state of kuching. go to sarawak to visit kota kinabalu, matai tuai nuai jang. org malaya, fail geo.
estate productivity cud be measured by FBB produced MT per year per hect or per MT of oil produced per hect. The highest is Indonesia and cheap labour. PNG and Africa poor. Latin america, columbia is the fastest growing acerage year after year. not brazil. La Paz bio diesel in columbia. Estate production high does not mean company good. UP the most efficient company around. Just read fgv fin report, good to trade not invest. Jtiasa, run by Tan Sri Tiong's son, good to trade. no comment abt invest, better not to know. plz take a trip to kapit, baram, telupid, silam cave, kunak and nga entapau. maybe you get fresh empurau there Sir,

Posted by Seek > 2016-03-09 22:35 | Report Abuse

Calvin, u r using CPO price!
Must use the fresh fruit price.(ffb).
CPO price is 2,500rgt a ton.
FFB price is 400plus rgt.
One acre of Palm tree produce about 10 tons of FFB per year.
At 20% extraction rate, these 10tons is equivalent to 2 tons of CPO .
U have to rework the figure.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 22:36 | Report Abuse

Ik059,

It was shown to me by KE Tan. The advert is from Sin Chiew Newspaper. The rest I don't have information.

Last time my friend, Mr Bub from Skudai bought many pieces from Johor High Court Auction at around Rm55,000 to Rm60,000 an acre. Those lands were near Pontain & Kukup area in Johor State.

Posted by VenFx > 2016-03-09 22:40 | Report Abuse

The Land Below The Wind, imply for Sabah 
The Horbill Tropicana State, refer to Sarawak.

Posted by VenFx > 2016-03-09 22:43 | Report Abuse

Kmloong, has branch office at kuching, Sarawak, They r really efficient.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 22:43 | Report Abuse

VenFx

This I already know. Thks. You read with proper judgement. So many take things for granted. "LAND BELOW THE WIND" was a popular tv advert when pairin kittingan was in power?

I have only been to Kuching, Sarawak, the land of the hornbill. Will visit Sabah one day. Inshah Allah.

Posted by chabalang > 2016-03-09 22:48 | Report Abuse

I normally do not like to correct people's postings but your factual errors are rather glaring. From JT corporate presentation (Sizeable oil palm estate with an estimated plantable area of 69,589 ha. Planted 69,589 ha to-date Pg7 of http://jayatiasa.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/presentation_2QFY16.pdf) - around 172,000 acres. By the way, FGV, Sime Darby, IOI and KLK planted areas are larger.

As for JT land ownership. please vet carefully through the annual report...do the listed coy really own All the plantation land? FGV's key landbanks are 'leased' from Felda settlers. However, Sime Darby, IOI and KLK land are owned by them...that's why the three coy's mkt cap are in tens of billions.

There is no doubt that JT's oil palm plantation age profile is really good...with >70% in prime mature by FY18.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 22:49 | Report Abuse

SEEK,

You are right again!

KE Tan did refer to Fresh Fruit Bunches at Rm380 a ton early this year. And now Rm430 a ton? Up Rm50 ?

So One Acre can yield 2 tons of CPO.

Now Rm2,550 per ton. So 2 tonnes = Rm5,100 a month. Or Rm61,200 per year?

Ha! My friend Mr Bub who bought so many acres around Rm55K to Rm60K per acre must be laughing all the ways to the banks now. And KE Tan bought his for only a song from his rich brothers - one of them is my Johor Sifu.

Posted by Seek > 2016-03-09 22:54 | Report Abuse

No,it's 2 tons of CPO a year.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 22:54 | Report Abuse

Thank you chabalang,

I really appreciate your positive contributions!
Keep it up!

For once i3 Forum is filled with gentlemen with fruitful suggestions.

Many thanks!

I live in Singapore surrounded by concrete jungle.
By the way, once upon a time there was not even on rubber tree or oil palm tree in Malaysia.

The British brought them first into Singapore during the 19th Century and planted them First in the Singapore Botanical Garden. They were later introduced into Malaysia soil and turned into Great Success!

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-03-09 22:55 | Report Abuse

What happen to mulpha pmcorp pmcorp Kpscb nylex and etc

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 22:55 | Report Abuse

Should be,

Once upon a time there was not even one rubber tree or Oil Palm Tree in Malaysia.

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-03-09 22:57 | Report Abuse

All of them share the same features
Creative accounting high nta and low margin
No dividend!!

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 23:01 | Report Abuse

Balatiga Hunter,

Thanks for so much information. Ikan empurau? I heard it's very good. But cost thousands? Kapit? I bought one Jeep by Bank Pertanian through tender.

After buying it they told me there was no road to Kapit. Transport only by river when water is high enough. Ha! I managed to find a buyer from KK. So I got help from both Sarawakians & Sabahans in transporting the Jeep from Kapit to KK. Amazing but true. I did all this only by phone in KL

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 23:05 | Report Abuse

Haha! Seek

You got it right again!

Rm5,100 a year for Rm55,000 acre investment = 9.2% yield?

Since those lands Bub bought at only Rm55,000 per acre have more than doubled better sell them for 100% profit?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 23:10 | Report Abuse

PlsGiveBonus,

I bought Pm Corp when it was only 9 cents. Now giving a nice 8 cts cash pay out. After that my cost is only 1 cent. Believe or not it's up to you.

As for KPSCB I recommended it at 44 cents. See my post in icapbiz forum. It went past 60 cts for 36% gain.

Mulpha I last recommended at 25 cts. Now 29 cts. Up 16% in one month.
As for Nylex I am looking to buy more on weakness.
So please check carefully, ok?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 23:12 | Report Abuse

Ik059,

Yes, you are also correct! Must pay the Indon guy Rm80 to cut the Fresh Fruit? Must buy and apply fertilizer?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 23:29 | Report Abuse

Ik059,

If Rm250 a ton net profit.

Then One Year = Rm3,000?

So Bub land cost Rm55,000 get a yield of 5.4%? Slightly better than Bank FD. So for Johor Oil Palm Planters the purpose is for Land Appreciation?

As for Jtiasa'a lands in Pulau Bruit (An Island 30 to 50 miles north of Sibu/Sarikei (Pan Borneo Highway). The Land Cost is only Rm175 per acre.

If Rm3,000 per year yield = a whopping 1,700% gain?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 23:34 | Report Abuse

Ha! This evening's discussion reminds me of those "Brain Storming Times" with my Johor Sifu & Johor Buddies.

The checks & double checks prevent us from making careless mistakes.

We need all to "SEE" from different angles and directions before coming to a proper conclusion.

As the book says, "In the multitude of counselors there is safety"

So Calvin Really Appreciate All Who Contribute Positively here.

It makes my day indeed!

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-03-09 23:36 | Report Abuse

JTiasa eps 2.5 cent for each quarter
2.5 x 4 = 10.00

Giving JTiasa a forward P/E ratio of 10.00
At a price of 1.35 it is fully valued
The more reason to not buy

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 23:37 | Report Abuse

Ik059,

Correct. According to Jtiasa the trees are now maturing. So I think in coming years the result will turn better

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-03-09 23:43 | Report Abuse

The demand for oil palm will be low for the next few year
the shale oil will replace oil palm crude oil and even rubber when it can finally cost effective to produce

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 23:45 | Report Abuse

Ik059,

I always wonder why don't they rear animals inside those plantation lands to add value. After all wild grass is free fodder for the animals and palm fronts will provide shade.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 23:54 | Report Abuse

PlsGiveBonus,

Yes, shale oil will impact bio diesel oil (from corn, soy and palm oil)

However, Palm Oil is also used as food as in margerine & milk substitute.

Our teh tarik has no milk but only palm oil. So is our ice cream. Think how could McDonald sell ice cream on cone for only 50 cts? Palm Oil lah.

Every time we use Palmolive for bathing or shampoo we are using palm oil. Crude & shale oil are made into detergent. And for frying food only vegetable oil is in use (not crude oil or shale oil). So as long as human beings need to eat, drink (milo has more palm oil than cocoa or milk inside) or bathe we will use palm oil. It is the cheapest vegetable oil currently and for the foreSEEable future

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-09 23:57 | Report Abuse

Ik059,

Yes, I think those big time players think it is too troublesome to bother. One interesting small oil palm player is Tmakmur. They rear livestocks in their plantations for sale. I think all should adopt such good examples

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-03-10 00:02 | Report Abuse

Corn oil olive oil and soy oil will also compete with palm oil, demand for palm oil?
Very negligible, not to forget when it come to food substitute, palm oil margin will be forever low for no reason.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-10 00:12 | Report Abuse

Ik059,

My indon construction worker called Jarwo told me this true life story.

He used to rear cows for sale in Java Timor or Surabaya. Last time long ago he sold a cow for 2 million rupiah. Another worker called Beno also send money back home to buy calf and rear for sale when they are big enough.

Jarwo after selling his cow for 2 million rupiah (About Rm700?) That was 15 years ago. He then bought a small plot of land and planted trees.

He kept those trees for 7 long years until they have grown as tall as 30 meter and with a circumference of 6 feet. Someone offered to buy his trees for 8 million rupiah (About Rm2,800?). They were using these soft wood trees to make paper.

Then Jarwo again planted new tree seedlings. This time he intends to keep it up to 10 years. I asked him, "Why so long?" He replied, "These are hard wood trees which could be used as furniture like door beams & so worth even more."

Ha! I was so surprised that he can wait so long. Then I said him about his current land price. He said that it has appreciated from 2 million rupiah to 15 million rupiah now. But he is not selling. He will only sell the trees buy not the land.

Thinking of him I am musing, "Why not buy Plantation Stocks and Invest Longer Term?" So I think JTiasa fits a long term investment stock for me.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-10 00:17 | Report Abuse

PlsGiveBonus,

Olive Oil is too expensive. Corn oil also not cheap. Only soy oil can compete. But El Nino will wipe off all low trees like corn, sunflower or soy. And the coming La Nina will be worst with all its floods and devastations. So Only Tall Olive Trees And Oil Palm Trees will survive. Going into year 2017 & 2018 we might see CPO cross Rm3,000. Very possible.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-10 00:21 | Report Abuse

Correction:

Jarwo will only sell the trees but not the land.

Posted by sherlock > 2016-03-10 00:22 | Report Abuse

there are several fact that should take into consideration:

1.)one acre of oil palm can only produce only 1-1.2 ton of FFB(now even low due to cyclical low season.）
2.）in order to produce one ton of palm oil,3.5-3.8 ton of FFB was needed.
3.)plantation lands wont mature at same time.some might old,some might immature.thats why clearing and replanting is needed each year.
4.)FFB output of jtiasa was only around 55,000 tonnes per month,and their produce about 8,000 tonnes of palm oil per month.
5.)palm oil business only contribute about RM400 million or 30% of revenue to jtiasa,the rest still come from logging and wood business.

with revenue of only RM400 million per year,how do Jtiasa earn RM630 million extra profit in a year,even CPO really goes up to RM 3000 per ton？

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-10 00:23 | Report Abuse

Whoa!
Time passes fast. Already past midnight.

Go to go to bed now.

See You all tomorrow.

Good night everybody.

Posted by Vc Looi > 2016-03-10 01:19 | Report Abuse

Jtiasa has only 60787 hectares which is only 150000 acre, and 1 acre conservatively only yield 1 tan. Doesn't know how you make ur research ? Full of misleading info.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-10 06:34 | Report Abuse

Good morning Vc Looi,

Charles Haddon Spurgeon said, A BADLY CUT DIAMOND IS STILL BETTER THAN A WELL CUT CHERRY STONE.

In other words please SEE THE VALUE OF THE CONTENT even though the presentation is not perfect.

Hmm？

You think that JTIASA only got 150,000 acres land?
Have you counted carefully the SUM TOTAL of Jtiasa lands under PROPERTIES OWNED BY JTIASA IN THE ANNUAL REPORT OF 2015？

In any case if we take your assumption of only 150,000 acres and our friend Ik059 estimated profit of RM3,000 a year acre it will be

150,000 x 3,000 : RM450,000,000 PROFIT A YEAR AT CURRENT CPO PRICE OF RM2550 PER TON.

THAT WILL ACCELERATE UPWARD FURTHER WHEN CPO CONTINUES TO POWER UP BY EL NINO AND LA NINA！

AND SO OUR DAY IS BRIGHT!

I AM HAPPY TO BE ALIVE！

HAVE A GREAT DAY AHEAD,

REGARDS,
CALVIN

Posted by 3iii > 2016-03-10 07:39 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2016-03-10 08:22 | Report Abuse

Total revenue of JTiasa is about 1 billion ringgit per year. Assuming a rise of 15% in CPO price, its revenue can grow to 1.15 billion ringgit. Its present PBT and PAT for 2015 were 56 m and 34 m respectively; PBT margin was 5.4%. Assuming the increase in revenue based on better price of CPO all drops to the bottom line, this will add another 115 million to its PBT to 171m and PAT of about 136m. Its earnings peaked in the year 2011 when its PBT was 202 m, PAT was 147 m and PBT margin was at 23.2%.

Posted by 3iii > 2016-03-10 08:25 | Report Abuse

In 2011, it was trading between 1.88 to 2.01 per share, with average PE of 13.

Posted by Koon Bee > 2016-03-10 08:35 | Report Abuse

Calvin come up cheat ppl again? Nvm...nobody will trust u anymore

Posted by Tom > 2016-03-10 08:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by chabalang > 2016-03-10 08:42 | Report Abuse

@calvin, I note that your positive response.

For forecasting plantation profits, it is not just a simplistic 'how much an acre of palm oil can make in a year'. There are many factors to consider and as such, the earnings can fluctuate. To make things slightly easier: profit = revenue - costs.

Revenue of a oil palm plantation is generally dependent: (i) CPO, PKO & FFB selling price; and (ii) production volume of CPO, PKO and FFB. The selling price and production volume are dependent on various factors, in particular weather (forecasting weather is like fortune telling -> will someone even know accurately what is tomorrow's weather, let alone over the next year?). There are inter-play (inverse correlation) between prices and production volume (e.g. 1H16 industry production volume will be likely be lower due to El Nino, CPO prices expected to be up) as well as expected production volume of competing oils such as soya bean. Besides weather, there are various factors affecting production volume including age profile (significantly influence production volume), topography and soil of plantation land (please note peat soil land - yield are generally lower), availability of labour, clones planted, fertiliser used, any tree/biological stress & etc. There are many other factors affecting revenue such as regulatory & import duties imposed by buyer countries as well as environmental regulations, usage for bio-diesel mandate (e.g. when will Msia move to B10) and etc...

I leave costs part out...if not, my post will be too long.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-10 08:46 | Report Abuse

GOOD MORNING CHABALAN & ALL HERE,

STAR BUSINESS HEADLINES

"CPO BREAKS TREND"

Commodity Heads Towards Rm3,000 Per Tonne Level

EXTREMELY GOOD NEWS FOR JTIASA

Posted by Koon Bee > 2016-03-10 08:50 | Report Abuse

Haha...well said...true indeed!!


Tom
1522 posts
Posted by Tom > Mar 10, 2016 08:41 AM | Report Abuse

dikhead calvintaneng......

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-10 08:54 | Report Abuse

Thursday, 10 March 2016
Palm oil breaks trend, heads towards RM3,000 per tonne
BY LEONG HUNG YEE







Dr James Fy (left): At US$35 for Brent crude oil, CPO futures will stand at RM2,750 and hit RM2,900 per tonne on US$40 a barrel oil. Dorab Mistry (right): I believe we must now cast aside all ideas of crude palm oil futures at RM2,600 or RM2,700.
Dr James Fy (left): At US$35 for Brent crude oil, CPO futures will stand at RM2,750 and hit RM2,900 per tonne on US$40 a barrel oil. Dorab Mistry (right): I believe we must now cast aside all ideas of crude palm oil futures at RM2,600 or RM2,700.

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KUALA LUMPUR: After more than two years of falling prices, the outlook for the crude palm oil (CPO) market has improved, with a breakout in prices from the RM2,500-per-tonne level on the back of harsh weather conditions that have resulted in lower output from major plantations in Malaysia and Indonesia.

Experts predict with a greater degree of certainty that CPO is likely to hit RM3,000 per tonne, a level last traded in September 2012.

A firmer indication on the uptrend will be known when the palm oil inventory is announced today. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board is expected to release Malaysian palm oil data for the month of February 2016.

According to industry sources, inventory levels are heading towards 1.6 million tonnes as at the end of this month on the back of a 20% reduction in production across the board.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-03-10 08:56 | Report Abuse

Please Note:

"EXPERTS PREDICT WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF CERTAINTY THAT CPO IS LIKELY TO HIT RM3,000 PER TONNE, A LEVEL LAST TRADED IN SEPTEMBER 2012"

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-03-10 15:09 | Report Abuse

KUALA LUMPUR: The Securities Commission devoted a significant proportion of its investigative resources last year to working on cases concerning possible insider trading.

Of the 58 active investigations as of Dec 31, 2015, 43 were related to insider trading offences, the SC said in its 2015 Annual Report released here today.

The SC charged a total of 17 individuals in the Sessions Court last year, with 16 of them facing charges of committing insider trading, and one for furnishing a false statement to Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd.

It also said that in 2015, eight individuals were sentenced to imprisonment terms for various breaches of the securities laws.

These included sentences meted out following trials at the Sessions Court as well as by the High Court and Court of Appeal.

Meanwhile, a total of 22 referrals were received in 2015 on possible violations of securities laws.

Corporate governance transgressions formed the majority of referrals during the year at 41 per cent.

These cases were mainly in relation to acts by directors of Public Listed Companies (PLCs) which may have been done with the intention of causing wrongful loss to listed companies.

This, according to the SC, breaks away from the trend of previous years where the majority of referrals comprised mainly insider trading offences.

During the year, formal witness statements were recorded from 382 individuals to assist in gathering information for ongoing investigations.

Almost 80 per cent of them were professionals who were corporate advisors, accountants, lawyers, companies secretaries, persons licensed by the SC, securities account holders and directors and senior management of PLCs.

The SC also exercised its investigation powers to search 15 business premises in 2015 to gather relevant information and documents.

Given the increase in cross-border financial transactions, international co-operation continues to be critical in ensuring the success and effectiveness of its enforcement efforts, said the SC.

Last year, it made 22 requests for investigation assistance from securities regulators in seven countries, and received 10 requests from six jurisdictions for investigation assistance.

On administrative action, a total 41 was taken by the SC for various misconduct and breaches of securities laws last year.

During the year, RM1.04 million in penalties was imposed against various parties.

The SC also had 53 ongoing cases in the Sessions Court, High Court, Court of Appeal and Federal Court last year.

Of these cases, 28 per cent were related to corporate governance breaches such as financial misstatements and disclosure offences, and another 30 per to insider trading.

The rest concerned securities fraud, market manipulation, unlicensed activities and questions of law. -- Bernama