I have watch YouTube (about 53 seconds). He said, using Gadang as an example, he bought it previously because the orderbook contract is high. He said, he is not asking anyone to buy because at recent price, it is fully valued. He didn't said he had sold all the shares. That is my understanding. Please take a look at the YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8O2oZc8BVU
from his tone he is telling people gadang is now fully valued and therefore not to chase gadang. now there is a stock just like gadang which coldeye bought when nobody is interested. that stock is multico or mceholding
.....New paradigm III ...............................^.denial ...............................|.|.^.return to "normal" .....................Public..|.||.| ................Bull trap...|.V..\ ..........Institution.......|.......\...Fear .................Investor /.........| Smart money........./...........|....Capitulation .First sell off........./.media...\ Take.....____....../..attention.|.......Return to the mean ......Off/........\__/...................|....../ .....__/.........Bear....................\.../ __/...................Trap.................V..despair
@aidwiz, tx. investors and speculators looks at the Company from different perspective (due to different horizon and risk). 1. As I am looking a few years down the road, I look at what they have invested and roughly when are they bearing fruits. Beauty is in the eye of beholder. 2. I looked at the potential in RM120m invested in utility/plantation (more in the future), RM100m invested in Semenyih land, and also the JV with Kwasa Land, more recognition of Capital City (>80% more to go), 3. Multiple proposals in theory is a non event, it always depends on the sentiment of the day. But the free warrants is an attraction, normally positive. 4. I believe at RM2.90, Gadang has not reach its "full value" yet. On the basis of what they invested (RM120m in utility, RM100m in Semenyih land, JV for Cyberjaya and JV for Capital City (only about 20% or less taken up), and possibly more contracts to come. I based on roughly what these "projects" can earn in the future. So my horizon may be different from many others.
FM, your heard it right. He said he bought at RM1.60 and he is still holding. "Wor hai sze na chor" For me, it's a non event. Your decision should be independent of it. If your evaluation leads you to conclude that it is fully valued, then don't buy. Don't lose sleep on it. If you know another counter has better return than Gadang, quickly swap it. That is what independence is all about.
RU, when listening again, u r right. At the beginning, he talk about Gkent after saying Gadang. The entire clip is about GKent, fully valued, worth about RM3.50ex-bonus. (Perhaps those who went for the talk heard him said he had sold Gadang at RM3.00. JUST to clarify. Tx RU
Whoops, RU deleted his comment on the YouTube clips, not sure why. Anyway, based on the consensus, profit ranges for next 3 FYE is about RM85m-RM106m. Even average at RM95m, analyst gave a TP3.59 to 3.70. Use it as reference. The people who gets the ESOS is happy to see the price is down. I am happy for them. Happy employees, hopefully can make more money for the Group.
Based on the readings on the comments made in i3, most are unable to make "independent decision", i.e. they have no choice but to follow this guru or that guru or unable to do "adequate homework. Of course, there is also stockist/syndicates at play. Average volume for past few months is about 1-2m, today (11m, half day) and the other day (28m).
Some are also making "careless" remarks. But, if we look at the situation rationally, the current situation (volume > 10m) is really great for "prospective buyers" and "ESOS participants" (employee is smiling). They are smiling because, they can buy at about 19% discount from the peak price, and make more money when they grow the company. Otherwise, the ESOS is useless for them if the Company do not manage to grow at a reasonable rate.
As for the amount given for the proposed ESOS, it is also quite high, in percentage (>10%), but I believe it is also guided by SC or Bursa guidelines (within the law). Imagine, if the company is RM610m (@ RM2.75), 10% is RM61m. How many employee have such amount other than the MD (even MD is not paid more than RM2m a year). So how are they going to pick up the ESOS, even though it is selling at a discount of 10% to them?
Last but not least, for information only, at RM2.75 less net cash of 32sen and dividend 7 sen, the company you are paying is RM2.36 or RM610m. Average profit next 3 years about RM100m. Looks ok. Will be rerated once they secured another project of >RM500m.
sosfinance sifu, can you make an article regarding calculation after bonul split ,bonus issue and warrant, how much it will dilute the eps and pe and the effect
Before: divided by 2.5 After: times by 2.5 Add free warrants: times 0.5
So, closing price is RM1.26 Before: RM1.26 x 2.5 = RM3.15 Plus half of free warrants = RM0.69 x 0.5 = RM0.345 So, total Before Bonus+Free warrant = RM3.15 + RM0.345 = RM3.50 You may want to add back dividend RM0.07 If you sell everything on Monday at these prices, you are selling at RM3.57 (higher than the MD)
Of course: Monday prices will goes up further due to the announcement of the RM952m.
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shortinvestor77
5,487 posts
Posted by shortinvestor77 > 2016-11-05 19:27 | Report Abuse
Today Cold Eye said he sold Gadang already (just sold).