Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-11-16 20:17 | Report Abuse

This article was first publised at paperplane's personal blog & is now published here with permission from paperplane.

Posted by gohkimhock > 2016-11-16 20:28 | Report Abuse

support paperplane. Muahahaha..

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-11-16 20:58 | Report Abuse

Very interesting & logical analysis, thanks for sharing, good job to paperplane.

Also thank moneysifu for your effort in publishing such good article for more people to read.

Posted by cheoky > 2016-11-16 21:01 | Report Abuse

Author forgot to mention years of supply vs demand deficit provides a support to tin price. Tmr paperlane 名人效益?

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-11-16 21:10 | Report Abuse

The rally of tin price was due to supply driven factor, where global tin supply was not able to meet demand of tin, even though tin demand was down by 3% last year.

Posted by LA777 > 2016-11-16 21:16 | Report Abuse

Thank you, paperplane and moneySIFU.

Posted by LA777 > 2016-11-16 21:17 | Report Abuse

I bought some today.

Posted by ABCDEFGHIJKLMN > 2016-11-16 21:30 | Report Abuse

First time read paperplane article, must give a big like

Posted by MRapolo > 2016-11-16 21:30 | Report Abuse

hope company start to pay dividend again next quarter..

Posted by WealthWizard > 2016-11-16 21:37 | Report Abuse

Finish reading, really informative. There is something very interesting in the tin price movement. Thank you for sharing again.

Posted by KLCI King > 2016-11-16 22:08 | Report Abuse

Good call? Bad call? Missed call? Let's come back & see next few weeks.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-11-16 22:22 | Report Abuse

Thanks to moneysifu. I hope someone can point out the worry here. Or concerns and negative points. Example, recent quarter still has further associates loss., Etc.

Posted by SuperMan 99 > 2016-11-16 22:23 | Report Abuse

Wow, I never know paperplane got personal blog, the writing also very good & organised. Well well well, good sharing, paperplane, thank you.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-11-16 22:24 | Report Abuse

Anyway, this stock will be my biggest stock next yr.

Posted by speakup > 2016-11-16 22:30 | Report Abuse

careful. Icapital incur BIG paper loss in MSC. They may cut loss.

Posted by ronnietan > 2016-11-16 22:39 | Report Abuse

Who's the author of this? paperplane2016 or moneySIFU, or they're the same person?

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-11-16 22:42 | Report Abuse

Nope, ronnietan, we are definitely not the same person.

The author is paperplane & I help to publish.

Posted by ronnietan > 2016-11-16 22:42 | Report Abuse

"Dr Neoh is one of the most famous value investors." Tan Teng Boo is well known too. Famous and great track record are 2 different things.
Do we know Dr Neoh's track record over say the last 10 or 20 years?

Posted by cheoky > 2016-11-16 22:46 | Report Abuse

Neoh live on stock dividend, I guess icap tan lives on unit holders fd interest. So relatively, dr neoh is richer than icap tan

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-11-16 22:48 | Report Abuse

Ronnie too young to know Dr.neoh, maybe stock raider bro, koko888, Calvin tan bro can talk a bit. The billionaire investor! Hip hop hooray

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-11-16 22:49 | Report Abuse

Ha, good point, ronnietan, I also don't know, frankly. Paperplane has been calling Dr Neoh as one of his real sifu.

Paperplane, mind to share with us about Dr Neoh's background & his past achievements?

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-11-16 22:51 | Report Abuse

Though I am not young, I guess it could be due to I have not actively participated investment forums until recently only.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-11-16 22:51 | Report Abuse

Dr.neoh probably got 30,40 years of track record.hehe

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-11-16 22:52 | Report Abuse

Oh, will check it out. I also knew coldeye 2 years ago after saw his books at book store.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-11-16 22:54 | Report Abuse

Welcome, paperplane, it's good article & I hope more people can see it here.
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Posted by paperplane2016 > Nov 16, 2016 10:22 PM | Report Abuse
Thanks to moneysifu. I hope someone can point out the worry here. Or concerns and negative points. Example, recent quarter still has further associates loss., Etc.

Posted by ronnietan > 2016-11-16 22:55 | Report Abuse

I'm not young, and know Dr Neoh's background, though his CAGR's not generally known. He's a credible, good value investor.
Btw, well done paperplane2016 in 2016.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-11-16 23:01 | Report Abuse

Seem like I am the only don't know, must check it out. Thank you, guys.

Posted by ronnietan > 2016-11-16 23:10 | Report Abuse

I bring up a few points not to find fault but no need to discuss areas of agreement. I feel it misleading to describe MSC as world's second largest tin producer, more likely it could be large as a smelter, processing tin ore into refined tin ingots. As a mining company, through Rahman, it's probably very small.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-11-16 23:12 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by ronnietan > 2016-11-16 23:13 | Report Abuse

"..cash yielding around RM1.58 a year." The single largest source of this year's cashflow is reduction of receivables, a good one-off move by mgt, but not something recurring, and considered as yielding every year.

Posted by ronnietan > 2016-11-16 23:14 | Report Abuse

I find most articles here tend to use 10x PE as a target.
Many property companies are at 5-7x for a couple of years now.
What's a safe PE for investors to pay for MSC? Just for discussion.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-11-16 23:15 | Report Abuse

Thank you very much, Mr Calvin.

Posted by ronnietan > 2016-11-16 23:19 | Report Abuse

I'd agree that was a good book for lessons from the 1985 recession and market crash.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-11-16 23:19 | Report Abuse

It's all about the stability & potential of future earnings. I go for 5-8, depending on the Tin market development.

Posted by pingdan > 2016-11-16 23:20 | Report Abuse

Damn why so fast reveal this share? I accumulating. Anyway keep in mind that the Msc have paid off over RM168mil debt in one year time. Most of the debt in USD have been clear off.As per 30 Sep 2016, the borrowing in term of USD only left RM778k. As per disclosure of annual report 2015, 6percent or RM32mil borrowing in term of USD as at 31December 2015. Hence we no need worry on the forex loss on borrowing as the borrowing in USD have nothing left compare to previous year

Posted by pingdan > 2016-11-16 23:22 | Report Abuse

Revenue generated also in term of USD. With the trump effect, i guess the USD will further strengthening in the next couple month. Wa tin price increase by 50percent and USD exchange rate also increase so much. Only idiot dun wan to buy this share which offer a huge potential upside for investor

Posted by ronnietan > 2016-11-16 23:22 | Report Abuse

Overall, MSC's interesting stock to study and feature.
My reservations were tin prices seem so volatile now. An understanding of the supply and demand for tin next year would be very helpful, like will a shortage persist into 2017.

Posted by pingdan > 2016-11-16 23:25 | Report Abuse

Imagine this company can pay off debt by RM168mil. If this company continue to current payment trend, this company will become pure cash company in 1 and half year. Next time dun say this company only value at PE10. As the second largest tin mining company in the world, i guess the PE ratio will be valued at pe15 or more

Posted by 张天师买股票 > 2016-11-16 23:30 | Report Abuse

前两个星期看到资本投资中文报，ICapital有专题报道并推荐中期买入马熔锡机构

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-11-16 23:37 | Report Abuse

Thank you, Ezra_Investor, PE is just an indicative figure, not conclusive. It will be more useful if comparing the companies within the same industry.

To me, it's all about the business, not PE only.
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Posted by moneySIFU > Nov 16, 2016 11:19 PM | Report Abuse X
It's all about the stability & potential of future earnings. I go for 5-8, depending on the Tin market development.

Posted by 张天师买股票 > 2016-11-16 23:41 | Report Abuse

看了之后就买了一点，现在看了纸飞机的分析，更有信心了。

谢谢纸飞机和钱师父， 感恩！

Posted by Ezra_Investor > 2016-11-16 23:45 | Report Abuse

No problem, just pointing out how to demyth the 10 PER myth.
Now that you understand it, this will come in handy next time when you value a stock.
Do understand that valuation is as important as the business itself, moneySIFU.
A wonderful business brought at a high price equals disaster.

Posted by RUOutOfUrMind > 2016-11-16 23:49 | Report Abuse

Funny, first time I see people teaching moneySIFU. Haha, moneySIFu don't know PE? Laugh die me lah, go & check his comments, he is one of the knowledgeable members in i3.

Posted by RUOutOfUrMind > 2016-11-16 23:51 | Report Abuse

See his works & comments at Ekovest-WB yourself, it was fantastic so to speak.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-11-16 23:58 | Report Abuse

I agree with Ronnie, applying a pe 10 could be a bit positive or optimistic. But looking at its cashfLow I have confident applying the pe at 10 .
Also another good point is tin price in global market. Recent quarter the management argue lower production, it actually trigger my worry also. If price good but nothing to sell also useless. I will closely monitor this stock to ensure no negative surprise.

Using pe might not be really accurate also for this stock as it always has some special write off to hide their great profits? It might be the mgt tricks. They are Singaporean, probably don't want to pay so much tax to Malaysia?? I guess only lah. Kiasu Mah. Haha

Posted by Ezra_Investor > 2016-11-17 00:03 | Report Abuse

Funny, either you are truly stupid, or you are arrogant but truly ignorant.
Since when have MoneySIFU truly written any analysis of a company?
It's Wealth Wizard who wrote them, not him. He supplement information on them.

You'll be surprised on how many people don't know what they don't know.
You are a classic example of them.
As an investor, we have an social obligation educate people.

It's alright, people like you are the reason why I don't like to teach people.
You cannot teach people who doesn't want to learn.

Posted by RUOutOfUrMind > Nov 16, 2016 11:49 PM | Report Abuse

Funny, first time I see people teaching moneySIFU. Haha, moneySIFu don't know PE? Laugh die me lah, go & check his comments, he is one of the knowledgeable members in i3.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-11-17 00:04 | Report Abuse

If I am management, I will rather try expand in acquiring tin mine in China and do production there. Trump will impose duty tax on import? But they have no choice. China is the only country willing to export. You think Canada although rich in resources willing to export you? Or Indonesia? They have all said tin is crucial for their own country. Basically no one willing to export it! That's why msc venture in Indonesia failed. The govt basically in almost every country knew tin is crucial and not willing to export.

One more good news I saw is Bursa going to start Tin Trading market soon and MSC shall be a crucial partners in commodity mkt.

Posted by Ezra_Investor > 2016-11-17 00:04 | Report Abuse

I will remove my postings, feeling dishearten by people like you, there's no point teaching others.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-11-17 00:06 | Report Abuse

Relax Ezra. Good sharing. Kindly ignore noises. You posting help many readers here.

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-11-17 00:06 | Report Abuse

Ronnie, I love to read your comments as it is very business minded talks.