Posted by ronnietan > 2016-12-01 16:22 | Report Abuse

You're right, today.
As for the "doubters, non-entrepreneurs and scared types," they could be right tomorrow.
In Jan this year, as soon as RM strengthened, export stocks plunged, yes, plunged, even when record Q4 was going to be announced. Market was very efficient. A friend gave back RM20 mil in Jan/Feb.
Thanks for sharing your position, no need to call names on those who disagree.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-12-01 16:24 | Report Abuse

Correct only if status quo like last time.

For now Trump is in power and the equation has changed.

Why?

Answer::

Because US Debt has ballooned to USD 20 Trillion!

And Trump might tax all stocks imported to the US by at least 15%. For China Trump might tax up to 45%.

Malaysia also got high debt. Go Govt implemented 6% Gst tax for all.

So US might follow Malaysia by imposing tax.

Posted by buddyinvest > 2016-12-01 16:29 | Report Abuse

Calvin, your bompuri's debt is next to explosion threshold.

Posted by Unicorn_park > 2016-12-01 16:56 | Report Abuse

Bank Negara already said RM movement is due to speculative activities, not Malaysia's fundamental issues.
On mid-Aug: USD to MYR is 4.0. Now is 4.47.
Topglove is 4.4. Today ref. price is 5.28.

Today: USD vs MYR up 0.1%
Topglove down 3.4%

I bet someone in Topglove knows the MYR gonna strengthen back.

As for Liihen, it is already past its prime in May and now profits in declining mode.

Posted by YiStock > 2016-12-01 17:13 | Report Abuse

Trump will have 4 years time..what can be done in 4 years?

1) increase infra expenses to push economy- YES
2) pass a new law to impose minor tax so fund seated oversea can be repatriate back to US and invest into whatever government fiscal spending bond (with expectation of good return since fed going to raise rate soon) - YES
3) move back oversea job to usa? Apple and the rest will think think think...then 4 years past liao..- NO

RINGGIT strengthen? Maybe after election and if there is a major win.

RM 5 to USD 1 looks possible.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-12-01 17:39 | Report Abuse

stockmanny smart, i follow

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2016-12-01 18:21 | Report Abuse

Calculations wrong. 10% increase exchange will result in extra 15 mil sales, that's only gross sales.
Besides, it is correct sales is in a declining mode. That's the reason for no buyers
At best, it could maintaining last years figure with fired gain.
Ended Sep Q should have a huge jump for Christmas orders but it declined instead

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2016-12-01 18:25 | Report Abuse

Yes I also believe it would reverse with RM appreciation soon. Potential danger of US imposing tax

Posted by Flintstones > 2016-12-01 18:54 | Report Abuse

The export play, in my opinion, has limited upside and plenty of downside. The consensus view now is that RM would weaken with trump presidency. But lets face it. The consensus view is almost always wrong. Assuming RM do indeed go down to RM 5, that is only about a 10% movement. It is a far smaller movement compared to, say, RM 3 to RM 4.4. And also, many traders do not understand that most export companies are manufacturers who do not command high PE. Export companies are no Dutch Lady or Nestle. Even when you put 10x PE, I feel a but too rich as well.

Posted by lazycat > 2016-12-01 19:02 | Report Abuse

liihen management and big shareholder very shady, buy hevea homeriz better for a peace of mind

Posted by Up_down > 2016-12-01 19:06 | Report Abuse

Agreed with Flintstones. Export theme is a good play but don't put too much high hope on it. Many were enjoying the last great party before entering suffer stage. Think the old memory still haunted them.

Posted by shortinvestor77 > 2016-12-01 19:20 | Report Abuse

Support Stockman for Liihen. Its management is very good in tackle challenges ahead. Let's wait and see for more quarters after so many Q of excellent works. But Hevea and Homeritz already can't keep their momentum already, qr deteriorated is a fact.

Posted by lazycat > 2016-12-01 19:22 | Report Abuse

buy liihen if you feeling adventurous

Posted by yfchong > 2016-12-01 19:30 | Report Abuse

If could get kcloh to comment how nice.... have not heard of him

Posted by Up_down > 2016-12-01 19:36 | Report Abuse

Liihen is the highest potential counter in furniture industry now. Most companies in the industry are facing lackluster earnings at least until the next quarter.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-01 19:45 | Report Abuse

nevermind, we analyse only
nothing convinces people like seeing shares move!

Posted by buddyinvest > 2016-12-01 19:48 | Report Abuse

Posted by Lukesharewalker > Dec 1, 2016 06:21 PM | Report Abuse

Calculations wrong. 10% increase exchange will result in extra 15 mil sales, that's only gross sales.

Ans: Ringgit today revisits its 14-month low at 4.46 against the US Dollar. Ringgit retreats 8% since 1st October, 2016. The tumbling of Ringgit is a great boon to Liihen as its sales are 100% exported.

As per 3Q2016 report, its revenues & profits were respectively Rm 145mil & Rm 16mil. Assuming all other variables affecting its bottom line remain unchanged, the stronger US Dollar means its revenue is set to increase by the same percentage of 8% (RM11.6mil) to RM157mil.

Profit is however set to jump significantly 72% (RM11.6mil) from RM16mil to RM27.6mil. The above profit increase calculation does not take into account the potential unrealised forex gains from their receivables stipulated in the balance sheet.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-01 19:49 | Report Abuse

A friend gave back RM20 mil in Jan/Feb.

============

ronnie...a friend gave back because he join the last rally late after the share 100% , 200%.

Now, you have opportunity to enter as if nothing has happened.

Not disturbed ( yet)
No risk.

At least no extra risk.

Posted by Up_down > 2016-12-01 19:54 | Report Abuse

Wonder why most furniture companies did not report good earnings in last quarters while raw materials (plywood and chipboard) prices crashed recently as witness with poor earnings in timber companies. Any input?

Posted by buddyinvest > 2016-12-01 19:55 | Report Abuse

Posted by lazycat > Dec 1, 2016 07:02 PM | Report Abuse

liihen management and big shareholder very shady, buy hevea homeriz better for a peace of mind


Ans: Liihen has chalked up EPS growth (Y-to-Y)for the past 12 quarters consecutively. http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?type=A&value=L&source=M&securityCode=7089

This is a remarkable feat by an export stock. Can you find any like Liihen?

Posted by Junichiro > 2016-12-01 19:56 | Report Abuse

The USD appreciation gain for exporters is the low hanging fruit. Now, what if demand for their goods drop?
I think that is the reason why some export-orientated stocks rise and then drop again. That said, it is good for 'hit n run' strategy.

Posted by yfchong > 2016-12-01 20:09 | Report Abuse

Bro icon write some articles lah....

Posted by 77huat77 > 2016-12-01 20:11 | Report Abuse

Pohuat arh icon ? Glove counter facing latex and rubber price increase so not because insider knew something unicorn

Posted by 77huat77 > 2016-12-01 20:17 | Report Abuse

Thanks for informing

Posted by Abismail > 2016-12-01 20:19 | Report Abuse

Icon..i alraedy follow u buy tguan

Posted by 77huat77 > 2016-12-01 20:22 | Report Abuse

Icon any other export you like beside supermax, pohuat and tguan haha

Posted by newb1995 > 2016-12-01 20:25 | Report Abuse

Stockmanmy/Icon888,how about latitude?
Latitude latest earning higher than liihen but market cap still lower than liihen. Cash level also higher for latitude. Thanks.

Posted by VenFx > 2016-12-01 20:58 | Report Abuse

Stockmanmy, found your article getting cute.
Come, my challenge still valid.
Pick your pet.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-12-01 21:02 | Report Abuse

Ven

Professionals measure performance by returns per beta.

Not by gambling with Tek Seng and Comcorp

Posted by VenFx > 2016-12-01 21:09 | Report Abuse

Such as ? Pls share your result.
Hardly to find it from u.
Sorry ...

Posted by VenFx > 2016-12-01 21:16 | Report Abuse

Frankly, I like u more than Calvin.
U are unpredictable, always full of fun.

Posted by Unicorn_park > 2016-12-01 21:39 | Report Abuse

I always invest in recent good profit companies. Very safe way to earn money. Not intelligent enough to care much about outside factors like commodities prices.

Posted by 77huat77 > 2016-12-01 22:33 | Report Abuse

Why icon delete comment hahah

Posted by Kesley Tan > 2016-12-02 10:31 | Report Abuse

no way ringgit goin appreciate back as long as US hike-rates is ongoing.

Posted by Tryingtogetrich > 2016-12-02 15:36 | Report Abuse

The easier way is to play currency loh...... no need to worry about management of company

Posted by calvintaneng > 2016-12-02 15:43 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jason33 > 2016-12-02 15:47 | Report Abuse

need to be more selective this round for export, avoid those that are too reliant on US market to be safe.