Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock
A must read for every investor. Tetlock examines some of the best minds in predicting and their thinking process. You will learn some of the great tools like think probabilistically, outside view vs inside view, and be a fox, not a hedgehog.
In the last 3 to 5 years, the only company that I call great is Hartalega. Other than this company, no other company gives me an impression of a great company. Great stock, yes. Great company, maybe.
Dear all, One very important point I learn from KYY lecture that I forget to mention is, “Never fall in Love with your shares” No shares can go uptrend forever thus learn when to take profit or cut loss? www.koonyewyin.com/2016/11/09/how-to-be-a-super-investor-summary/ I post the parts stock selling criteria/reasons Stock selling criteria/reasons • The reasons we bought the share are no longer there or valid, • Raising cash to buy another better stock, • Fundamentals have changed, • The company is showing reduced quarterly profit (Q5 & Q6 EPS vs Q1 & Q2 EPS), • Shares which have gone up too rapidly. If the fundamentals are still intact, buy them back during correction, • Notes: sometimes it also depends on individual’s knowledge, understanding, experience, holding power, risk appetite and circumstances. He made no apology to those who still hold on to the JAYA TIASA when it is so clear to all that the reasons we bought the share are no longer there or valid.
stone...if the word great company restricts you, you can use other words such as exceptional companies...., what you want is a company this year will make more money than last year, still decent PE....you want some thing a bit more exceptional because you want to sailang,...you want some thing inside view confirms with outside view....you want some thing that can be tested with public information,
you want to give yourself a good probability by looking at the charts too.
Ten people sailang based on your criterias, 1 become rich, 2 become negative rich to banker, other into oblivious. Or all ten becomes rich? Icon pls advice
what to do? society does not want you to know its secrets/
cheoky > Feb 6, 2017 06:10 PM | Report Abuse
Ten people sailang based on your criterias, 1 become rich, 2 become negative rich to banker, other into oblivious. Or all ten becomes rich? Icon pls advice
A good example...is mammy promoting CSC at Rm 2.38 & above....raider says caution, despite raider having position in CSC.....bcos raider know CSC has run up alot loh....!!
Raider says choobee better, bcos....it has more margin of safety loh..!! The current share performance....confirm value investment in Choobee a much better choice than csc loh....!!
If u play dynamic investment....always check...whether still have reasonable margin of safety loh...!!
I tell you about Trump Trump suffers from narcistic personality disorder and over developed level 1 thinking from his reptilian brain and a defective level 2 thinking from the frontal lobe.
I hate people like you who so misreads the situation that now, the world is under random by a mad man.
Pnb...is doing badly...lately...just look at UMWOG loh....!! Also...Sime consolidate into a big holding company few yrs back....now want to break ....all these are done to con naive uncles & aunties loh..!!
For Sime...they promote...big consolidated holding as a successful model...just a few yrs....they now sing a diff tune ?
U must understand conman...can no longer con....they always change rules & stories....to try to regain its conning initiative loh..!!
Be wary of bumi...PNB fund...if they cannot ...take advantage of non bumi...who else they can take advantage mah...!!
Of course...they cannot...con bumi investors...not many mah...and agst their principle loh...!!
Myth Popular myth and fallacy found in all discussion forums and popular investment /trading books.
Set a realistic target take profits on 50% and let balance of 50% run with trailing exit price to protect profits.
What I have now learnt. forget all that. who has ever become rich, I mean really rich trading shares as opposed to finding a really exceptional company to invest in?
In that strategy, up a bit already want to sell 50% up a bit more, all gone....trailing stop even worse. trailing stop means sell into the slightest wind.
U MUST UNDERSTAND THE MINDSET OF TRADERS LOH....!! THEY ARE WARY OF OWNER OF STOCKS, WHO IS OUT TO CON THEIR MONIES..!! THEIR PROTECTION IS TO MONITOR THE STOCK PRICE AND THE BUSINESS PERFORMANCE CAREFULLY LOH...!!
How to be rich? really really rich? when all gone, have to go look for another company. the dog chasing its tail. Never ends and if lucky, goes no where.
Have there ever been a super investor who fall into the traps of random / temporary fluctuations? They all have their own opinions well before the random fluctuations, not just react to them except to take advantage of random fluctuations. SOME PEOPLE SAYS IT IS RANDOM FLUCTUATION....BUT TRADERS CALLED IT RED FLAGS INDICATOR LOH...!!
Investing as a business If investing is a business Then like all businesses, super investors learn very early to sailang. THIS IS RUBBISH LOH....U SEE KYY SAILANG ON XINGUAN, FLB, JTIASA....HOW MUCH HE LOSE LEH ?
That is totally different from what everyone is used to in listening to the media, books, and portfolio managers. I guess because of that, really really successful ones in the stock market is a rare thing.
One has to unlearn every thing that one has learnt of the stock market Sailang is a very difficult thing to do, especially difficult for normal conservative people to do. THIS KYY...ACTUALLY HAD INSIDER INFORMATION ON LIIHEN, VS ETC...THATS WHY MAKE GOOD MONIES...BUT THIS IS ILLEGAL LOH...!! IF U R A RETAILER U NORMALLY DO NOT HAVE THIS UNFAIR PRIVILEDGE LOH...!!
No guarantees. Everyone has only one life.
With everybody, the propensity to avoid uncertainties is very high . People will pay a high price to avoid uncertainties. This results in most normal people taking profits way way too early , even of shares of exceptional companies that they have identified.
All successful businessmen have struggled and sailang at least once in their lives. To the blessed ones come success. But success is also perspiration and preparation.
A bird in hand is not always better than 3 in the bush. If one can treat life as a game of probability, like the professional poker players do, we have increased our chances for success. U MUST "CHEE LEONG LOH" CHINESE SAYS IF U HAD NO BIG HEAD...DON WEAR SO BIG HAT LOH...!!
so, practice patience and look for the exceptional company .........THIS RAIDER AGREE...BUT NEVER FOLLOW KYY BCOS HE IS A CONMAN LOH....!! BUY WITH BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY..IN ORDER TO BE SUCCESSFUL MAH
This article can change your life if you give it a chance. Share this. RAIDER SAYS READ THE ARTICLE WITH A PINCH OF SALT LOH...!!
W BUFFET NEVER ADVOCATE....DYNAMIC INVESTMENT LOH....!! HE ADVOCATE GREAT COMPANY WITH GREAT COMPETITIVE MOAT LOH...!! HE ALSO ADVOCATE MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!
W.BUFFET IS A TRUE LONG TERM VALUE INVESTOR, UNLIKE KYY JUST A MODIFIED VERSION OF STOCK SPECULATOR MAH...!!
I made a bucket sailang on airasia at 0.9, and sold at 2.6, before it went up to 3.3. 100% plus full margin, all bought in 1 day. I would never sailang again. I was beyond lucky, it shoot up the next day and kept doing so for a year. If it go down the next day, i can really cry d.
You're right, when you find that right situation, you must be ready to throw a large amount at it. But for safety,it is 10-15% (max and cash), 30% if its really fucking extraordinary.
Look at valaent. Great (back then) company, many people hold a lot there, 94 to 27 dollar in a month. Its now USD14 per share.
You can only sailang, when its, you buying the whole company and can look at the entire books, front, back, right, centre. Or its really too fucking cheap. Like airasia then. I was beyond confident then, but i would never do it again.
My advice, 3-5% each company, if you think its better, 7-10%. You dont have perfect information. And there is 800-900 companies in Bursa, dont tell me you cannot find 10-20 worth investing in.
Stockraider, warren buffet is long term, but he's also short term. If you really look at his trading patterns, he got quite a few short term bets one.
Warren buffet sailang, also i dont think he throw more than 30% of his company total next worth into another company. None of his stock or companies held is worth more than 15% of berkshire.
You can only sailang, when its, you buying the whole company and can look at the entire books, front, back, right, centre. Or its really too fucking cheap. Like airasia then. I was beyond confident then, but i would never do it again.
My advice, 3-5% each company, if you think its better, 7-10%. You dont have perfect information. And there is 800-900 companies in Bursa, dont tell me you cannot find 10-20 worth investing in.
A VERY RIGHT CONCLUSION BY CHOIVO LOH....!! AT LEAST U UNDERSTAND THE RISK LOH...!!
too standard an advice, not suitable for the ambitious.
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My advice, 3-5% each company, if you think its better, 7-10%. You dont have perfect information. And there is 800-900 companies in Bursa, dont tell me you cannot find 10-20 worth investing in.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Ricky Yeo
1,637 posts
Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-02-06 12:20 | Report Abuse
If I sailang Ekovest in 2005, 10 years later what is my return?