Posted by Icon8888 > 2017-07-31 18:51 | Report Abuse

You are wrong. I have seen quite a few people get filthy rich by punting market ALONE (and do nothing else)

And it happened in Malaysia, not US， Europe or other developed countries

One of the best (my friend) made 2000% return over a period of 10 years (RM1.00 became RM20)

It was done by buying stocks based on reasonable PER and growth (Essentially KYY Golden Rule)

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2017-07-31 18:51 | Report Abuse

Icon, your demographic is not the general public.

Successful people very obvious, every day tell you how successful, people who lose money very quiet, never say anything, giving you the impression that a lot of people make money.

you go visit IWC forum see.

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-07-31 18:52 | Report Abuse

Few investor made it to the top it is acceptable
It is also backed by the facts that Forbes billionaire 1000 fortune only less than 10 is investor, the rest is businessmen
:)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2017-07-31 18:52 | Report Abuse

I am just telling the truth, instead of being politically correct

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2017-07-31 18:54 | Report Abuse

You are telling the truth for you. But you did not take expected value into account.

Outcome does not indicate probability.

People can do stupid things and make money, or do smart things and lose money.

I know people make few hundred k better on options during trump and brexit. I also know people lose that few hundred k in just a few month after.

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-07-31 19:01 | Report Abuse

It is good to make some money and feel the excitement of seeing money come and go
It is what money is meant to be
Of course making money is not my first priority in investment
It is just a part of my boring life to kill time
:)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2017-07-31 19:08 | Report Abuse

I am trying to open up a new intellectual frontier for this particular topic

It is easy to stick to the politically correct theorem that punting can't make you rich

But my past few years experience tells me something different has been happening in the market. The advent of internet technology facilitates information exchange through forum like i3. If you can make use of a forum like i3 to select your stocks (by brainstorming with others), you can emerge at the top of the food chain and consistently defeat other non i3 players (who are the majority). That is the new theoretical basis for Punting Can Make You Rich.

This is a new reality, so we should devote more attention to try to understand it, instead of strangling the baby in the cradle

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2017-07-31 19:12 | Report Abuse

Yes punting can make some rich. But icon, you are particularly good at it, most are not.

I remember what peter lynch said, you can never really be sure if you're a good investor. Studies show that you need at least 64 years record before you can say you are actually pretty good.

So many people so successful for years, some even for more than 10 years. Then suddenly, lose it all.

You know how to size bet and manage risk, and your articles are popular, so thats a major risk mitigator, when it comes to time risk.

Remember Croesus, story is not done until you die. Until then, better dont be greedy. You keep making money, later really sailang 100% on one stock because so confident, result down, limit down, margin call. Lose it all in a day.

Lim Goh Tong eldest son died owing RM400mil to cimb investment bank.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2017-07-31 19:15 | Report Abuse

Now punting make you rich, cause basically bull market for 10 years d (got some up and down, but nothing major). The people who started investing in the last few years, all very happy and make alot of money.

but its precisely these people who when crisis come, see portfolio down 30% in one day, wont know how to cope and panic sell, losing everything, cause they cannot participate in the future rebound.

My suggestion, if you think really you're really good and punting can make you rich, invest for your friend. Guarantee his capital, and EPF interest rate and give him 20% of the profit (above EPF) on top of it. Full skin in game.

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-07-31 19:25 | Report Abuse

There is one reason why investor cannot make it rich in stock anymore
because the margin trading limit is all time low at 2x to 3x cash up-front only. The last time the limit is at least 50x to 100x, it is the time when many become rich in stock market.
:)
Why people make it rich in property?
it is also because of the high leverage.
:)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2017-07-31 19:26 | Report Abuse

Fluctiations caused by bull bear cycles can be addressed. It is not true that bears come and will totally undo past 10 years gain

When beers come, it wipes off gain, but it opens up opportunity to profit in a way you can't get in normal time. Every crisis is an opportunity mah

So when come to long term performance, you can basically ignore the bear cycles. It is not relevant, provided you can PERSERVERE

Posted by Icon8888 > 2017-07-31 19:31 | Report Abuse

Can you already see the difference between your approach and mine ?

By declaring that "punting to get rich" is unachievable, you kill the entire idea with one stroke

By insisting that it is possible, I keep the debate alive, thereby provide the opportunity to further dissect the issue (for example : bull bear cycles, etc)

Instead of saying that "punting to get rich cannot be done", I would encourage people to rephrase the topic to become "punting to get rich is not easy, you need to fulfil the following conditions and do the following right things"

Can you now see where I am coming from ?

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2017-07-31 19:35 | Report Abuse

I am expecting value cap to kick in and drive up the market
and I am waiting for like forever
:)

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-07-31 19:36 | Report Abuse

Diversified portfolio, Mix of defensive stocks, thematic play and plus some of the warrants. Never agree with put all money in one stocks...

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2017-07-31 19:45 | Report Abuse

I'm not encouraging punting (pump and dump) to get rich, i'm encouraging being almost 70-80% invested at times, with you ready to leap in during bear markets.

You say what you're doing is "punting", but in essence what you're really doing is just value investing anyway, just that you focus more and cyclical, turnarounds and fast growth, but you try to get out somewhere near 10-20% of the peak.

Yes, you can make a lot of money in the market, if you're aiming to make 10 times in 10 years etc. But this is not what the people who started investing in the last couple years are aiming for. They are aiming for super fast returns like Aemulus, VIS, Krono, and they are coming in when prices are very close to all time high, not understanding that the risk is no longer much better than the rewards.They want 20% next week. Or double in a year. Alot of the people i know are super concentrated.

One friend of mine laughed at me for only making 35% in airasia, he makes 10-30% per day gambling on crypto, during the major drop the last few week, luckily he didn't lose everything since he had presence of mind to not sell all.

Icon,you are one of the few i really respect, because of how insanely good you are sometimes. You are the only guy i know who held airasia from 3 plus all the way down to 2.1 and even top up.

I bought in at 2.5 on the way down and topped up a little bit down, but i almost sold at 2.1 because i was looking at 15% loss and i keep thinking KYY comment to cut at 10%. I sold half when it rebound to 2.5 but luckily kept the rest and averaged up to 3 once i did my research properly.

TLDR: Many people who are investing now, they are not pricing the risk correctly, they think they are genius because everything going up.They think they are special.

I'm saying balance that arrogance and humility, since in investing you need both, the arrogance to go against the market, and the humility to know you might still be very stupid and wrong.

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2017-07-31 20:59 | Report Abuse

You are probably right if you are referring to the general working population. There are limitations such as capital, knowledge, time for the average income person.

However, it is still possible to get a good retirement life.

Posted by enigmatic > 2017-07-31 23:01 | Report Abuse

To me, what Jon Choivo and Icon8888 are arguing is essentially the same. Some people get rich merely by investing/speculating in the stockmarket. Some make it big, others may lose a little. Worse, some lose it all. If one knows what he/she is doing, perhaps 'sailang' on Hengyuan (when it was RM3) or bought KESM when it was undervalued, they definitely can become rich. The key to getting rich via stocks is to have sufficient knowledge, timing, high EQ (not easily swayed by emotiosn) & luck when you buy & sell.

No doubt some people can punt & hit the jackpot like Icon's friend has done. As Icon mentioned, it takes perseverance. The utilization of information, eg. i3investor.com allows investors to pick stocks more confidently. stick to one's price target despite the ups & downs. But on the other hand, Jon Choivo has a more conservative view on the majority of punters, where these eager punters are actually gamblers. These gamblers want fast, easy money. They jump on the bandwagon of any hot stock w/o doing any research whatsoever. Most, if not all, get burnt, simply because they can't control their emotions. When they see a 10% profit plummet to a 30% loss in the span of a few days (or months), they panic & sell at a loss.

“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”― Benjamin Graham

Icon8888 said as long as punters do the right things, they will get rich. But isn't that considered as doing research? If punters had done proper analysis, they won't be classified as punters. They should be called investors. They'll stand a chance to get rich via the share market. I don't think those who have conducted due diligence are categorized as punters/speculators. Surely these people will have higher chances of selecting winning stocks. But the reality is, most people don't have the patience. They want immediate results. They mindlessly follow the crowd to buy trending stocks. These are the majority of punters/speculators.

I'm inclined to Jon Choivo's view that the majority of punters don't have what it takes to get rich via stocks. If the majority of punters, (eg. 70% of them) lose money in the stock market or are not profiting much from it, it is certainly not wise to 'sailang' their hard-earned money into trading stocks. For punters, stocks are a source of extra income. Think of it as driving Uber/Grab part-time. It cannot replace working full-time for a living, though a few may attain great success. To the normal folk, returns from shares are a bonus. Realistically, dabbling in stocks without a job and hoping for the best isn't going to make any punter or speculator rich. It is akin to buying Toto/Magnum/Damacai everyday, hoping to strike big.