A useful but simplified measure of refinery profitability is the “crack spread.” The crack spread is the difference in the sales price of the refined product (gasoline and fuel oil distillates) and the price of crude oil.
The crack spread is the easiest measure people have to measure future profit. But it is the least precise.
Before someone say you only need to be roughly right and not precisely wrong.
Remember this, you have no out. The only way hengyuan will go up, if it beats last quarter and last year by a fantastic amount. If it show even flat earning. Sure drop.
Business wise, hengyuan i still ok, but not that cheap anymore.
The crack spread tends to be sensitive to the slate of products produced from the refinery. Gasoline and distillate fuel oil (heating oil) are two typically high-valued products, and refineries are generally engineered to maximize production of gasoline and fuel oil.
The crack spread is also sensitive to the selection of the oil price used. There are systematic differences in the prices of heavy crude oils versus fairly light crude oil. Due to these differences, the crack spread calculation (while illustrative) may not be sensible for a particular refinery.
Posted by probability > Nov 16, 2017 01:56 PM | Report Abuse X
Study the data presented here carefully, you will never find a generous man sharing & spoon feeding such information in i3.
You will notice that Q3 average Gross refining margin 30 to 40% higher than Q1 (for Brent (Cracking) and Dubai (Cracking) - which is of slightly higher complexity than Simple refiners like Petron who does Hydroskimming).
This will result with Net refining Margin exploding by more than 50% relative to Q1 (minimum)!
Posted by probability > Nov 15, 2017 10:00 PM | Report Abuse X
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
3iii
12,917 posts
Posted by 3iii > 2017-11-13 21:09 |
Post removed.Why?