Posted by Flintstones > 2018-03-06 18:43 | Report Abuse

Smart guy trying to predict earnings again

Posted by traderman > 2018-03-06 18:54 | Report Abuse

smary guy, Euro 4M Mogas completion is delay. please study the quarter report first

Posted by Tom > 2018-03-06 18:58 | Report Abuse

炒家已经套利离场了.....业绩不差也没用了

Posted by Tom > 2018-03-06 19:00 | Report Abuse

stockraider眼睁睁看着hy打包

Posted by Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes > 2018-03-06 19:12 | Report Abuse

?

Posted by david_tan > 2018-03-06 19:15 | Report Abuse

traderman,

Management of HRCB had in their Q4 2017 report commented that a delay in the planned completion is expected but at the moment, there is no indication stating that it cannot be completed before the October 2018 dateline.

The delay also does not mean the exercise requires a timeframe longer than 2.5 months as planned; the delay is due to a longer time needed to fabricate the main equipment. It simply means that commencement of work will be delayed. As such, production downtime of 2.5 months remains.

Thank you.

traderman smary guy, Euro 4M Mogas completion is delay. please study the quarter report first
06/03/2018 18:54

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2018-03-06 19:32 | Report Abuse

A very good report, I like it.
Good work.
Look like David Tan and David Lim are all very good analysts.
Thumb up !!

Posted by feet > 2018-03-06 19:38 | Report Abuse

good analyst definition is getting the prediction wrong by a wide margin?

Zhuge_Liang A very good report, I like it.
Good work.
Look like David Tan and David Lim are all very good analysts.
Thumb up !!
06/03/2018 19:32

Posted by 3iii > 2018-03-06 19:44 | Report Abuse

Sorry, the author does not know how to value Hengyuan.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2018-03-06 19:46 | Report Abuse

Do not attack any writer here.
Please show us your reports to justify your comments.

Empty tin made the most noises.

Posted by Ed168 > 2018-03-06 19:51 | Report Abuse

Meaning y-o-y eps comparison still down. If the market is still weak, I don't see it can go higher PE. I will avoid for now.

Posted by tronx > 2018-03-06 19:51 | Report Abuse

Now wait another big fund to handle the price. Previous big fund already take profit and leave it to small potato. Good luck to those who continue hold whatever profit or loss.

Posted by pussycats > 2018-03-06 20:02 | Report Abuse

Smart guy trying to predict earnings again.Kiki Kiki

Posted by Up_down > 2018-03-06 20:07 | Report Abuse

Time lagging for claiming reinvestment allowance is the main concerned in near future. Can HY claim reinvestment allowance if the upgrading works has not been completed ?

Posted by VenFx > 2018-03-06 20:18 | Report Abuse

Wow, at 4p.e. Hrc will be parking at $10.80 ?
Should we discount it for the Safety of Margin ?

Thx to Davibtslim for such a good tabulated analyst.

Posted by slts > 2018-03-06 20:24 | Report Abuse

PE 4x is based on history
the the PE will expand once profit
drop drastically as predicted my analysts

Posted by feimah > 2018-03-06 20:28 | Report Abuse

HRC still has inventory value of RM1.1bn which wasn't factor in to the above calculation.
No point for HY keeping the inventory during the 2.5mth down time.

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-03-06 20:32 | Report Abuse

Wa, x cukup ke kena tipu by future eye.. skrg mau tipu lagi ke

Posted by traderman > 2018-03-06 20:34 | Report Abuse

smart guy, this is from latest report

B4 Status of Project Euro4M Mogas
On 16 June 2017, the Company had announced the Final Investment Decision on the Euro4M Mogas
project with planned completion in the 2nd half of 2018.
We continue to anticipate a delay in the planned completion of the Euro4M Mogas project due to the
longer than expected duration to fabricate the main equipment. We are currently evaluating options
to minimise the impact and will provide further information in due course.

Posted by traderman > 2018-03-06 20:34 | Report Abuse

B5 Profit forecast
The Company does not issue any profit forecast.
The Company continues to prepare for a planned major statutory turnaround scheduled to be carried
out in the third quarter of FY2018. This major turnaround is planned to take approximately 2.5 months.
Accordingly, revenues for the financial year ending 31 December 2018 will reflect the anticipated
reduction in sales and production activities.

Posted by VenFx > 2018-03-06 20:36 | Report Abuse

Posted by Icon8818 > Mar 6, 2018 08:26 PM | Report Abuse 

there are BIG ERRORs in the above estimation as shown below: 

(1) 2017 Gross profit was derived despite Inventory Gain more than 400 Million for the year. 

(2) 2017 Gross profit had exceptional Refining Margin due to Hurricane Harvey 


Take out the above two effects in 2017 and replace it with below for 2018: 

(1) Huge potential for Inventory loss (crude price has more downside risk) 

(2) Refining margin had significantly dipped as shown in Q4 2017 despite inventory gain for this quarter. The refining margin was higher in Q4 2017 than current Q1 2018. Current low margin is what to be expected for the whole year 2018. 

(3) The MTA shutdown will easily exceed 2.5 months. There is a huge risk of commissioning / troubleshooting not turning up well escalating delays to even a year. 

(4) The 25% Tax 


2018 has every reasons to be disaster for Hengyuan 

My sincere warnings to all

我 : i dont know how true is it,,,, but thx to shiw the blind spot here.

Posted by abang_misai > 2018-03-06 20:54 | Report Abuse

Buy

Posted by oldmanorangtua > 2018-03-06 20:57 | Report Abuse

see 3q2015lah shut down 44 days only then rugi more than 100m . shutdown 2.5 months u still have positive valuation? sorry i totally in DOUBT

Posted by michaelwong > 2018-03-06 21:08 | Report Abuse

Talk what also no point lah. The price is definitely going lower even how good it can be. Buying can only be done not solely based on trust of promoters. I am going to buy hy but not based on the choice of promoters, but on the right suitable price deemed fitted. Eversince, when hy was hovering over 19++, alot of promoters with vested interests keep shouting buy....buy....buy and going for more.

In the end today,how many got trapped, stuck up with hefty debts and broke..... do you know why ? Figured out yourself with clear conscience and with good intentions. Don't get irritated for what l have written solely not applying to you alone with offence intentions.

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2018-03-06 21:24 | Report Abuse

I would advise to stop promoting HY. Keep your good homework to urself. Don't mislead the others, hoping ur article can convince ppl to push up so that u can exit urself.

A GOOD FUNDAMENTAL company does not need excessive promotions. Let the market decides.

Posted by gohkimhock > 2018-03-06 22:16 | Report Abuse

KYY already left. So who is willing to push up a counter with vulnerability of earnings? Just move on to some better counters is a viable choice. I can see Heng Yuan breaking RM10 support very soon. Might be even tomorrow..

Posted by cooling > 2018-03-06 22:16 | Report Abuse

kyy already left...small fish how to move 10 bucks counter

Posted by shortinvestor77 > 2018-03-06 22:20 | Report Abuse

A typical China stock.

Posted by michaelwong > 2018-03-06 22:21 | Report Abuse

Fabien,l do agree with you.lt is their usual tricks to reap up high profits while left those blind followers bleeding in self despair and broke .

Posted by shortinvestor77 > 2018-03-06 22:21 | Report Abuse

KYY had his fingers burned in Xinquan before. He has learned his lesson and now smarter.

Posted by cooling > 2018-03-06 22:23 | Report Abuse

the rule of the game is to get out before the big shark leave....after the big shark leave it's game over

Posted by gladiator > 2018-03-06 22:40 | Report Abuse

KYY already left and his supporters will panic looking for the exit tomorrow. Sell first can buy back when upgrade complete.

Posted by andrewong > 2018-03-06 22:44 | Report Abuse

awesome article. big shark is just out temporary . they will buy back low - this is how the game go on .

Posted by cooling > 2018-03-06 22:47 | Report Abuse

yes OTB will sell all to u

Posted by limhh > 2018-03-06 22:48 | Report Abuse

game over. wake up.

Posted by andrewong > 2018-03-06 22:49 | Report Abuse

tell me which stock with low pe ratio but can get high eps.

Posted by andrewong > 2018-03-06 22:49 | Report Abuse

alots ppl are waitig for opportunity to buy low

Posted by ordinaryjoe > 2018-03-06 23:19 | Report Abuse

credit to david_tan for sharing

however, thanks to Icon8818 for highlighting factors we may miss.

what is certain is EPS for 2018 would be lower than 2017.

How much is HY worth?

Let's not forget that when we compare to regional or global peer, a lot of these companies are covered by analysts and earnings are quite predictable. It is not like HY when so many, called sifus diligently showed their analysis but actual results is only half of the estimates.

Let me draw your attention to HK listed Sinopec. PER based on FY2017 EPS is 7.5x with a dividend yield of 6%. A lot of analysts cover this stock.

How much discount would global investors pay for HY? when dividend yield is almost nil. Where investors find it difficult to forecast the earnings, almost nil dividend.

So, the next time some contributors bark 10X PER, think twice. For every ikan bilis buyer like you and me, someone is selling to you at RM17 and RM19.

Posted by tronx > 2018-03-07 06:17 | Report Abuse

Call warrant holder also kena trap, mother share also got people kena trap. Cut loss or if you believe HY will move up, then you continue to hold. But Call warrant holder have no choice, please keep update when is your call warrant last trading. Sell when you able to.

Posted by newbie911 > 2018-03-07 07:37 | Report Abuse

No matter how u analyse, u cant beat market maker....so dont put too much hope.

Posted by 3iii > 2018-03-07 07:40 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Wong > 2018-03-07 08:04 | Report Abuse

From HY Report:
The Company has changed its functional currency from RM to USD with effect from 1 January 2017 following the refinancing of the Company's borrowings to entirely USD denominated loans

Posted by cend0l > 2018-03-07 10:02 | Report Abuse

david so desperate to promote sinking hengyuan

Posted by SALAM > 2018-03-07 10:37 | Report Abuse

Syabas David for your analysis !! Btw, can one just rely on the CME webpage futures prices on Spore Mogas prices to estimate its coming revenue ? If so, then it's a straight forward case, right David?

Posted by traderman > 2018-03-07 10:39 | Report Abuse

really ANALyst

Posted by kennyyap1962 > 2018-03-07 11:51 | Report Abuse

D operator press,, D price down using accumulate &dump(1 sell & another buy using 7-10a/c) method @11.30am but still hold 4500Lot of share. How can these happen why no aughority investige?

Posted by apolloang > 2018-03-07 11:52 | Report Abuse

jibby says 2018 will be good year but now many stocks new low

Posted by david_tan > 2018-03-07 13:41 | Report Abuse

Icon 8818,

Below is my reply to your concerns.

1. Your inventory gain of RM400m is incorrect. I believe you are referring to MFRS 13 (Fair Value Measurement). The inventory is classified as a Level 1 asset and the market market value is quite readily available.

As at 31 December 2016, inventory is valued at RM826m. Brent crude price was RM255 per barrel. This translates to approximately 3.2m barrels in hand.

As at 31 December 2017, brent crude price was RM272 per barrel. The fair value of the said 3.2m barrels is therefore RM870m.

The fair value gain on inventories in FY 2017 was therefore only RM44m, and not RM400m claimed by you.


2. I agree that there was an exceptional gain in Q3 2017 and hence should not be taken into account for future projections. As such, our projected 2018 numbers were determined based on that of Q4 2017 (being the latest available numbers) and not the GP margin for the entire 2017. This was clearly explained in our analysis.


3. Re refining margin. It is incorrect to say that refining margin in 2018 thus far is below that seen in Q4 2017. As also pointed out in our analysis, 2018 thus far has seen a volatile crack spread movement. Yes, there were days when margins were below Q4 2017, but there were also days when margins were significantly higher than Q4 2017. You may refer to available information on the internet for confirmation.


4. Re plant upgrade shutdown. We believe that there is no basis for your stating that the planned exercise will 'easily exceed 2.5 months'. The said upgrade involves transfer of technology and know-how from HRCB's parent company in China. This is not a new exercise or technology to the Group as a whole. They are experienced professionals in an advanced industry.


5. Malaysia's corporate tax rate is 24%, and not 25% as stated by you.


6. Re the U$160m budgetted for upgrade exercise. Management had via the Q4 2017 report stated that RM542m had been approved and contracted for, while another RM205m had been approved but not contracted for.

The reinvestment allowance arising from this upgrade exercise is an approved tax incentive in Malaysia.

As HRCB will likely make a profit this year (as even your personal computation shows a profit of RM329m), the reinvestment allowance will certainly be of benefit to reduce HRCB's taxation expense for 2018.


I hope that the above clears your misunderstandings.

Thank you.



Icon8818 there are BIG ERRORs in the above estimation as shown below:

(1) 2017 Gross profit was derived despite Inventory Gain more than 400 Million for the year.

(2) 2017 Gross profit had exceptional Refining Margin due to Hurricane Harvey


Take out the above two effects in 2017 and replace it with below for 2018:

(1) Huge potential for Inventory loss (crude price has more downside risk)

(2) Refining margin had significantly dipped as shown in Q4 2017 despite inventory gain for this quarter. The refining margin was higher in Q4 2017 than current Q1 2018. Current low margin is what to be expected for the whole year 2018.

(3) The MTA shutdown will easily exceed 2.5 months. There is a huge risk of commissioning / troubleshooting not turning up well escalating delays to even a year.

(4) The 25% Tax


2018 has every reasons to be disaster for Hengyuan

My sincere warnings to all
06/03/2018 20:26


Capex of 160M was only budgetted, there is no certainty it will result with Tax reduction.

Also the tax benefit only becomes apparent when there is a good PBT to start with.

There is much bigger potential for a heavier inventory loss exceeding 200M.

Posted by Sapphire_88 > 2018-03-07 14:11 | Report Abuse

David tan, i'm expecting HY to report loss vs your GP of 65mil in 2018 Q3, lets come back here Nov18 to witness.

Posted by tftey > 2018-03-07 14:22 | Report Abuse

Regulatory requirement to comply to Euro 4 by October 2018, only 7 months away from now.
Scheduled shut down for upgrade / maintenance take 2 1/2 months.
The Q4 report mentioned delayed with the upgrading parts availability.
It is a big concern and we don't know how confident the plant would be upgraded successfully and in time by October.
What if the upgrading takes longer time require?
What if the commissioning not successful?
What if by October and the plant still can't produce products that comply to requirement. Zero sales??
Too many " IF " and all these associated with Risk.
Risk is very high compare to minimum opportunity.
Hence, be extra careful to buy at this price.