Posted by qqq3 > 2018-07-01 13:50 | Report Abuse

your own money, do what you want...

other people money is a different ball game.

Posted by Patron > 2018-07-01 13:51 | Report Abuse

i realize many of these fundamentalists like to write long essays quote this quote that but their results ain't that impressive. IMO

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-07-01 14:04 | Report Abuse

Posted by Patron > Jul 1, 2018 01:51 PM | Report Abuse

i realize many of these fundamentalists like to write long essays quote this quote that but their results ain't that impressive. IMO
===============

hammer hit nail on its head.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-07-01 14:05 | Report Abuse

quote this quote that....gets respectability.

Posted by lizi > 2018-07-01 14:06 | Report Abuse

fundamentalist is just one piece of the puzzle...why 80% cannot perform? same to so called fund manager, the professional one, also cannot perform.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-07-01 14:15 | Report Abuse

the days of throwing darts and get big winners are over.

those who can preserve wealth are the champions.

I think I have preserved my portfolio very well the last 6 months.

and I will continue to preserve my portfolio very well in coming 6 months.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-07-01 14:18 | Report Abuse

To Diversify or Not to Diversify,


every thing is about timing, about big picture and about objective.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-07-01 14:21 | Report Abuse

as far as big picture is concerned....I trying my best to be bullish, to be positive, I look for reasons to be bullish.....but it is such a difficult task.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-07-01 14:41 | Report Abuse

should we have big picture before investing and doing asset allocations? and what if our big picture is wrong? why should we have a better big picture than the rest of the market? what makes anyone think he can have a better big picture than the market?

we all want to be accurate but how do we know we will be accurate?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-07-01 19:59 | Report Abuse

Correct.

It's easier to talk about investing than actually getting good results investing.

In addition, many people can show good 5 year results due to luck.

I'll find out if I have alpha in another 18 years :)

≠=======================================
Patron i realize many of these fundamentalists like to write long essays quote this quote that but their results ain't that impressive. IMO
01/07/2018 13:51

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-07-01 20:07 | Report Abuse

Qqq3, you must have a very low opinion of people.

Just because someone quotes buffet, does not necessarily mean people will respect them, look at icap boss, he quotes the most, but his name now is dirt.

I don't strive to be respected. I strive to intellectually honest with others and myself. And one often finds that respect comes with the package.

Im superclear about my fund, its philosophy and the kind of investor I am. My investors can then self select if they want their money invested by me.

In any event, guaranteed amounts are only 22% of the fund, which is about 30% of my equity in the fund. So it's not like I'm over leveraging.

Thy also have a 3 year lock up. And my name when it comes to money is gold. I always pay my debts.

Usually 3 months or so before end of lock up period, I'll ask them if they plan to withdraw. And adjust accordingly.

If they want to, my personal savings can usually cover any redemption instantly.

Posted by Flintstones > 2018-07-01 20:11 | Report Abuse

Is Jon really investing other peoples money? I thought all his letters to investors were written to imaginary people.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-07-01 20:13 | Report Abuse

All fund managers are limited by a few things.

1) Their ability.
2) The need to at minimum match the performance of the index or their fellow managers.
3) To handle the expectations of their investors when it comes to redemptions. In 2009 many fund managers were holding net cash positions as their investors were pulling out money in the peak of the crisis.

Im only limited by the first. On the second and third, I sieve through my investors very very carefully and tightly. This ensures that I have a investors that are 100% with me.

I would rather not manage your money at all if you don't trust me or understand my process.

For those whom I think don't really understand the process but they really trust me and my ability, I ask them to invest using the guaranteed method.

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lizi fundamentalist is just one piece of the puzzle...why 80% cannot perform? same to so called fund manager, the professional one, also cannot perform.
01/07/2018 14:06

Posted by newbie911 > 2018-07-01 22:31 | Report Abuse

Mind to know min to join?
And how big is your fund.
Thanks.

Posted by FamousAmos > 2018-07-02 10:41 | Report Abuse

26 years old , pretty impressive already. my suggestion to the fish is , try to study the general conditions - the macros. i will say most of the fundamentalists are smart but being smart is probably the least important thing in the market. I am up 60% YTD and yes I have been in the market > 10 years , been through enough booms and bursts to give you my opinions.

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-07-02 10:46 | Report Abuse

Posted by Jon Choivo > Jul 1, 2018 07:59 PM | Report Abuse

Correct.

It's easier to talk about investing than actually getting good results investing.

In addition, many people can show good 5 year results due to luck.


One day U may find that not many people can show 5 years good results due to luck

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-07-02 10:48 | Report Abuse

In addition, many people can show good 5 year results due to luck.

If yr above statement is referring to OTB then u have lots more to learn fm stock mkt, young man.

Posted by FamousAmos > 2018-07-02 10:49 | Report Abuse

do you know where is the 10 years MGB-Tbills spread trading at ? what is the level of dollar index? hows the MSCI emerging market index? oil price? Dow ? Hang Seng ?

By studying the macros you will enhance your portfolio return.

"Rising tide lifts all boats."

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-07-02 10:50 | Report Abuse

fooled by randomness.
its ok, almost all human activities have randomness.

but life goes on.

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-07-02 10:53 | Report Abuse

If u stay in mkt longer, say for another 4 to 5 years, then u read again what u posted now, maybe u will have a very different thinking then

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-07-02 11:29 | Report Abuse

Posted by CharlesT > Jul 2, 2018 10:53 AM | Report Abuse

If u stay in mkt longer, say for another 4 to 5 years, then u read again what u posted now, maybe u will have a very different thinking then

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You are probably right, it would be weird for me not to change any aspect of my thinking or perspective over five years.

On OTB, i was not specifically referring to him, like i always said, he's a very good trader. But i'm not sure how sustainable is his current alpha, as the philosophy does not hold water with me. Its not just the results but the process as well.

Bull traders usually beat the broad index over the bull years and in down years really get whack, then they beat index again etc.

Tbf, Otb did beat the market in 2015. In 2018, his returns were supposed to be abysmally bad, but he cut loss in time, which is in line with is ta philosophy of cutting loss when SMA down 200.

My only criticism of his philosophy, is that TA to me, appears to be the tool used by people who don't know the real value of what they buy, or view stocks as just numbers on a screen, with more concern of what others and the market is thinking, instead of having independent thought.

During the years when warren buffet bough Washington Post and American Express. His portfolio went down by more than 50%. And yet, he was never happier, just buying more and more every day.

That to me is the sign of real ability.

1) To be able to identify the intrinsic value of companies.
2) To buy more or hold as prices fall,
3) To be right.

I'm not sure he hits those 3.

He says to buy masteel (i dont subscribe, i have no idea), but then he sells. He calls HY and Gamuda-we Ms Universe stocks that you must never sell no matter what happens, and he sells. Quite inconsistent.

Thought tbf, Soros was also very inconsistent in terms of what he say, he changes his mind often and his trades can turn in just minutes, and yet his record over the 40 years is exemplary. Some genius can be hard to be explained.

Maybe OTB is a genius and i just don't understand him, but based on the balance of probabilities, its a hard conclusion to make.

Maybe you are right, im just too young :)

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-07-02 11:35 | Report Abuse

Tell me one person who is successfully predicted major macro events consistently.

Its largely irrelevant to me. Though i do have some perspective on it, but i don't let it influence my portfolio that much.

Example, i figured PH the probabilities of PH winning, will be higher than priced into markets, and so my cash holdings went from 0% to 15%, i started collecting cash and getting new investors 3 months before. I figured prices should drop.

Day after election, market didn't drop, for a week it was stable. And then it started dropping, and it wasnt really due to elections, but due to pull back of liquidity around the world for emerging markets.

Right for the wrong reason and the wrong timing.

Seth Klarman, and Howard Marks have been expecting a recession for a long time due to various factors, and they are probably right, their logic and research is very hard to refute, but the timing is the devil in the details, and therefore, they don't really try and predict when it will happen, just a rough idea of where in the economic and credit cycle they're at and invest accordingly.

Being right too early is often indistinguishable from being wrong.


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Posted by FamousAmos > Jul 2, 2018 10:49 AM | Report Abuse

do you know where is the 10 years MGB-Tbills spread trading at ? what is the level of dollar index? hows the MSCI emerging market index? oil price? Dow ? Hang Seng ?

By studying the macros you will enhance your portfolio return.

"Rising tide lifts all boats."

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-07-02 11:37 | Report Abuse

Posted by Flintstones > Jul 1, 2018 08:11 PM | Report Abuse

Is Jon really investing other peoples money? I thought all his letters to investors were written to imaginary people.
======================================================================

I invest for a Nigerian prince, Saudi general and handsome man who email me.

The Nigerian prince email me say he got money problem, as me bank in. I really go bank in, and he really is real Nigerian prince with money!

Very lucky man.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-07-02 11:37 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-07-02 11:39 | Report Abuse

Posted by newbie911 > Jul 1, 2018 10:31 PM | Report Abuse

Mind to know min to join?
And how big is your fund.
Thanks.
======================================================================
Find me on fb, we can talk there.

The fund is small. I want to know if i have alpha first and build a track record before properly raising money. So it will likely remain small for the next 3-4 years.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-07-02 11:44 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by FamousAmos > 2018-07-02 15:00 | Report Abuse

you still dont get it. you dont predict. noone can predict. you follow the trend , make concentrated bet and watch your bet closely.

It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.

anyway good luck to you. its always great to see youngsters engage in Bursa instead of some money games.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2018-07-02 15:08 | Report Abuse

by FamousAmos > Jul 2, 2018 03:00 PM | Report Abuse

you still dont get it. you dont predict. noone can predict. you follow the trend , make concentrated bet and watch your bet closely.

It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.

anyway good luck to you. its always great to see youngsters engage in Bursa instead of some money games.
=============

I guess that answers my question below.....




y qqq3 > Jul 1, 2018 02:41 PM | Report Abuse

should we have big picture before investing and doing asset allocations? and what if our big picture is wrong? why should we have a better big picture than the rest of the market? what makes anyone think he can have a better big picture than the market?

we all want to be accurate but how do we know we will be accurate?

Posted by godhand > 2018-07-02 15:10 | Report Abuse

otb is a trader la fullstop. how trader makes money?

Posted by FamousAmos > 2018-07-02 15:11 | Report Abuse

^ i have been trading for living > 10 years .

Posted by Whey Whey > 2018-07-02 15:58 | Report Abuse

Hahahahaha

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-07-02 19:31 | Report Abuse

Haha if you've been around that long, you must have some alpha (im assuming your have a good track record here).

I'm not that good at day trading unfortunately. I only trade when i am very certain the EV is really really in my favor.

Before Brexit, i bought put options on the GPB versus the USD as i was pretty sure the odds are more like 50/50, instead of 95/5 which most people seem to think it is.

Before the US elections, i bought put options on the Peso against the RMB, as i was pretty sure that trump had at least 50% chance of winning while the markets was pricing as if he was destined to lose.

And in the latest elections, i bet 2:1 odds that PH would win. Lets say bet of RM1, PH win, i get RM2, PH Lose, i pay RM1.

So far 3/3. Haha really lucky.

I'm considering taking up football or sports bets where the odds are 6 to 1 or higher, as people tend to really badly miscalculate odds at that level. Its very hard to say with confidence someone is going to win only 16% of the time.



===================================================================================
FamousAmos you still dont get it. you dont predict. noone can predict. you follow the trend , make concentrated bet and watch your bet closely.

It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.

anyway good luck to you. its always great to see youngsters engage in Bursa instead of some money games.
02/07/2018 15:00

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2018-07-03 19:57 | Report Abuse

interesting topic. there is really no definitive guideline when come to diversification. my own portfolio construction rule is to own between 12-20 stocks, in stricter terms to have a concentrated portfolio of 15 stocks. having said that, i am currently holding 25 stocks. well, that's my own problem.

it;s just not the numbers really. to protect the downside depends on how you design the portfolio, like stocks chosen should be spread over different industries and the stocks preferably have low correlations, at least to minimse the unsystematic risk.

how much to weight, i would say in direct proportion to how much confidence in each stock. i set my own concentration rule of not more than 20% of portfolio. perhaps im not as confident as Jon. hahaha...

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-07-03 21:18 | Report Abuse

The correlation is one that makes sense and does not make sense to me at the same time. In a recession, correlation for everything goes to 1, all drop together. So i don't really pay attention to diversify in terms of industry, just find really good buys, and often they come from different industries haha.

Haha on the weight, really hard man, on one hand you have warren buffet level of weight, like 40% or more in one (amex,in his younger days), or you have super diversification, like yeoman and walter schloss, which is also not that bad of an idea, shows humility, which usually makes you money, assuming you hold long enough.

But like klarman says, it does not make that much sense if you know what is good and what is bad.

But i think if one has a small fund, say 30k or less. 5 stocks is plenty. Only after you break like 150k, should you start to look a little more.

My limit is 30%. I tend to buy too quickly, even for rce which was build over 8 months. Timecom i built up to initially 40% of fund in just 3 days lol.

But after that, i don't sell or resize, just buy other companies until the largest position fall to like 20% max.

As you can see from my portfolio sizing, where top 2 is 51%, and the rest is like split over 24 companies.

I just can't help a good buy, and there is too many, and so many good buy's are hard to compare against another and say its the cheapest or better one, except for a few.





===================================================================================
Fabien Extraordinaire interesting topic. there is really no definitive guideline when come to diversification. my own portfolio construction rule is to own between 12-20 stocks, in stricter terms to have a concentrated portfolio of 15 stocks. having said that, i am currently holding 25 stocks. well, that's my own problem.

it;s just not the numbers really. to protect the downside depends on how you design the portfolio, like stocks chosen should be spread over different industries and the stocks preferably have low correlations, at least to minimse the unsystematic risk.

how much to weight, i would say in direct proportion to how much confidence in each stock. i set my own concentration rule of not more than 20% of portfolio. perhaps im not as confident as Jon. hahaha...
03/07/2018 19:57

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2018-07-03 21:45 | Report Abuse

yeah, hence i said to minimise the unsystematic risk.

the systematic risk, i.e. the macroeconomy, can only be managed by asset allocation. equities, bonds, structured products, cash...

to certain extent, can managed the portfolio design also during recession times, example building positions in stalwarts, assets plays instead of fast grower and cyclical.

looking back at GFC that was the best time to load up the DLady, Nestle etc. etc.

Posted by Jon Choivo > Jul 3, 2018 09:18 PM | Report Abuse

The correlation is one that makes sense and does not make sense to me at the same time. In a recession, correlation for everything goes to 1, all drop together. So i don't really pay attention to diversify in terms of industry, just find really good buys, and often they come from different industries haha.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-07-03 21:47 | Report Abuse

GFC? Elections?

I wasnt expecting the run up really. Why would they go up in those times?

And how do you ensure you are being rational instead of rationalizing. That's also a really hard one for me.

Posted by Junichiro > 2018-07-03 22:22 | Report Abuse

Hi Jon, enlightening reading yr post. Talking abt diversification, from my experience, it would do nothing to protect yr portfolio in a big downturn. In anticipation of a downturn, I just sold all my shares rather than sitting on paper losses.
I did it in 1997 on the start of Asian crisis and continues to do so. Nobody knew it would be that bad. After the Thai Bath was attacked, I sold all my shares considering KLSE is already toppish.
Then , on 2nd Sept 1998, I went into the market buying 50000 shares of only one company. I did not diversify. Some 3 months later, I made a big gain which was far more than I lost when I sold out at the start of the crisis.

Posted by cheoky > 2018-07-03 22:33 | Report Abuse

otb isnt soros. otb thrive on subcription fee just like icap tan thrive on management fee. when tide come lift it same category as buffet and soros.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-07-03 22:40 | Report Abuse

Wow, a grizzled warrior here haha.

That was interesting. I'm not sure if you're lucky, or you have an edge.

My mom sold out before every single crisis. Because my dad always wanted to buy just before a crisis. Haha

Tbf, the house price probably dropped during the crisis, but you dont really feel it, since whole family living and using the house, and you dont have a screen and a figure showing you all the way.


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Posted by Junichiro > Jul 3, 2018 10:22 PM | Report Abuse

Hi Jon, enlightening reading yr post. Talking abt diversification, from my experience, it would do nothing to protect yr portfolio in a big downturn. In anticipation of a downturn, I just sold all my shares rather than sitting on paper losses.
I did it in 1997 on the start of Asian crisis and continues to do so. Nobody knew it would be that bad. After the Thai Bath was attacked, I sold all my shares considering KLSE is already toppish.
Then , on 2nd Sept 1998, I went into the market buying 50000 shares of only one company. I did not diversify. Some 3 months later, I made a big gain which was far more than I lost when I sold out at the start of the crisis.










If OTB, does the same returns without subscribers and in his own fund, i'll concede he definitely has alpha.

Now, i can argue the only reason his return so strong is not so much his thought process or picks. but his ability to rally people around his stocks.

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Posted by cheoky > Jul 3, 2018 10:33 PM | Report Abuse

otb isnt soros. otb thrive on subcription fee just like icap tan thrive on management fee. when tide come lift it same category as buffet and soros.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-07-03 22:41 | Report Abuse

Junichiro,

What do you find interesting these days, id like to pick your brain a little.

Posted by hollandking > 2018-07-03 22:42 | Report Abuse

if whole market fall, no point diversifying, where u go, u kena hammer, on contrary, if u focus on a few or less, u have more ammo to defend your position. Opening so many positions means harder to defend unless u want to sell some of the positions and used them to defend the other positions. Focusing means u must be sure counter u choose to focus is solid, no speculative type of counters, no management problem or bad records.

Posted by hollandking > 2018-07-03 22:43 | Report Abuse

i noticed something was weird since last year, that's why i restructured the whole thing.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-07-03 22:46 | Report Abuse

"Focusing means u must be sure counter u choose to focus is solid, no speculative type of counters, no management problem or bad records."

Myeg, Ekovest. See what happen.

How do you mean have more ammo? you hold 10% in 10 stocks versus 33% in 3 stocks, eitherway no cash unless you hold cash no?

Im cash is generally very low. so can't "defend", just buy every month depending what cheap.



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Posted by hollandking > Jul 3, 2018 10:42 PM | Report Abuse

if whole market fall, no point diversifying, where u go, u kena hammer, on contrary, if u focus on a few or less, u have more ammo to defend your position. Opening so many positions means harder to defend unless u want to sell some of the positions and used them to defend the other positions. Focusing means u must be sure counter u choose to focus is solid, no speculative type of counters, no management problem or bad records.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-07-04 01:17 | Report Abuse

What did you notice? Care to elaborate? I'm curious.

Posted by Junichiro > 2018-07-04 11:37 | Report Abuse

Hi Jon, I notice that u have Petron in yr portfolio. What puzzle me is why do u invest big time in a company with little liquidity? Most of the time, the seller is at the mercy at the buyer.

When I was very young, I bought shares in a company which has little trading. When I wanted to sell, I found a big gap between the buyer price n seller price. My senior advised me not to trade in illiquid shares. That was my first lesson.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-07-04 11:48 | Report Abuse

I look at liquidity as being dynamic.

When you want to sell in a bull market, alot of liquidity. When you want to buy in a bear market, also alot of liquidity. The problem is when you want to buy in bull and sell in bear.

My name is not warren buffet or even kyy. So building up a position or even selling a position is not a difficulty. Small ikan bilis only.

If i have say 30 million to invest, i can definitely see how some companies will take more time than others to build up a position. One of them is petronm. But im small ciku, 10 seconds can build up the position d.

I usually don't sell, and keep my money in the markets permanently, so i dont face your problem.

Posted by Junichiro > 2018-07-04 12:01 | Report Abuse

"The problem is when you want to buy in bull and sell in bear."

Hi Jon, I got the answer. It is enlightening reading yr postings!