Posted by VenFx > 2018-08-31 17:16 | Report Abuse

Hope author may scan sensitivity for their feed grain cost impact too. Tq

Posted by NoctisShadow > 2018-08-31 17:39 | Report Abuse

Very interesting write-up. 50% collapse in share price looks compelling. Please share more...

Posted by shortinvestor77 > 2018-08-31 17:43 | Report Abuse

High material cost should be considered as well.

Posted by chkhooju > 2018-08-31 17:43 | Report Abuse

I, for one will definitely not catch a falling knife.

Posted by valuelurker > 2018-08-31 18:09 | Report Abuse

Lol dont use 'rebound strongly by next quarter' unless youre actually doing their accounts

Posted by Bruce88 > 2018-08-31 19:20 | Report Abuse

HerbertChua again ..

Posted by Temp > 2018-08-31 19:30 | Report Abuse

Not HerbertChua this time. "Someone" who can beat FutureEyes.

Posted by WaAdaLui > 2018-08-31 19:50 | Report Abuse

Always appreciate ppl who willing to share their homeworks. No matter good or bad news.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-08-31 21:08 | Report Abuse

Do you mind sharing your research on the nh foods jv.

Posted by santocs > 2018-08-31 21:20 | Report Abuse

Hi, thats good sharing, something that you may look into.

Egg section is just contributing 25% of Layhong's revenue.
Few more factor that may play around rather than just looking at price of egg.
Soybean and corn price may take huge impact too. Eggs come from chicken, and chicken come from Soybean and corn! Take not there will be some lagging for material price, as company will stock up these material 3 to 6 months normally.
On top of that, currency is impacting the profit too, as layhong use USD in material purchasing.

So, instead of looking at just egg price. There are more too look at.
Thats not so straight forward.

One thing to discover, what make the share price drop so much CONTINUOUSLY for 2 months. Everything come with reason. There are something that we do not know behind this huge & quick drop in share price.

Posted by ramada > 2018-08-31 21:30 | Report Abuse

Thanks for sharing. Hope this old articles can help you a bit.

https://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/blog/img/bl3557_20170522_001.jpg
https://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/blog/img/bl3557_20170522_002.jpg
https://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/blog/img/bl3557_20170522_003.jpg

https://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/blog/img/bl3557_20180224_014.jpg
https://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/blog/img/bl3557_20180224_015.jpg

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-08-31 21:34 | Report Abuse

sharing for thanks

Posted by winnerz > 2018-08-31 22:12 | Report Abuse

Thanks for sharing. Cut loss is not a big deal, the bigger deal is want to know how I die.

Posted by cheoky > 2018-08-31 22:29 | Report Abuse

Why not guess the Yap holding company is also short of cash. A margin unwinding cycle might in progress

Posted by NoctisShadow > 2018-09-01 08:01 | Report Abuse

When is part 2 coming out? Please let us know the timeline....

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2018-09-01 08:04 | Report Abuse

I am suspecting the same thing as cheoky

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-09-01 08:17 | Report Abuse

So monday can hoot?

Posted by smalltimer > 2018-09-01 08:28 | Report Abuse

My question is last quarter shld be high egg consume since more cakes & cookies being baked...& Since the price of chicken food increase..what'rationale to drop the egg price? Egg control price is 2-4 weeks during puasa...is this the caused? Then govt the culprit?

Posted by NoctisShadow > 2018-09-01 08:30 | Report Abuse

It is out already. For those who need the link https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/ckinginvest/172147.jsp

Posted by Chicken King > 2018-09-01 08:34 | Report Abuse

If you observe the egg price trend for the past few years, they have always came down during the Ramadan month. Reason is simple: less meals per day equals less demand for eggs. Eggs spoil in 2-3 weeks. So egg farmers will be scrambling to clear their stock. The oversupply will the cause egg prices to collapse.

Posted by smalltimer > Sep 1, 2018 08:28 AM | Report Abuse

My question is last quarter shld be high egg consume since more cakes & cookies being baked...& Since the price of chicken food increase..what'rationale to drop the egg price? Egg control price is 2-4 weeks during puasa...is this the caused? Then govt the culprit?

Posted by smalltimer > 2018-09-01 08:42 | Report Abuse

What about more cookies & cakes being baked? Since been in egg business for many years & if trend in ramadan is always throw price, why not reduce production hence reduce cost...sell as meat during ramadan la

Posted by Chicken King > 2018-09-01 08:55 | Report Abuse

A laying hen will continue to lay 5-7 eggs per week regardless of season. To reduce production would mean culling the hen. Most of the time, it is not worth culling them unless the egg prices fall too low for long periods of time. But once industry-wide volume is reduced, big players will benefit from the price rebound while small players need 6-8 weeks to re-grow new hens to catch up. Industrialized layer farms generally have stronger financials compared to mini farmers to sit through the low cycle.

Posted by smalltimer > Sep 1, 2018 08:42 AM | Report Abuse

What about more cookies & cakes being baked? Since been in egg business for many years & if trend in ramadan is always throw price, why not reduce production hence reduce cost...sell as meat during ramadan la

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2018-09-01 09:04 | Report Abuse

??

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2018-09-01 10:10 | Report Abuse

Wow....great insight

Posted by robot888 > 2018-09-01 10:58 | Report Abuse

To Chicken King, yr analysis is great But u must also take note of Layhong's net gearings ... its extreme HIGH. Interest expense also high.

Posted by robot888 > 2018-09-01 11:00 | Report Abuse

As at March 2018, its cash and short term investment stood at RM15.68 million, total debt stood at RM230.52 million.

Posted by robot888 > 2018-09-01 11:02 | Report Abuse

I am convince only if u can tell me how LayHong manage its finances.

Posted by robot888 > 2018-09-01 11:06 | Report Abuse

But how come LayHong's gearings high at current level. If u said so ... it is a net cash company by now.

Posted by Temp > 2018-09-01 11:30 | Report Abuse

robot888, wake up. If Lay Hong's cash flow good, you think you still can buy at such lower price? You can't sell the chicken and get the eggs mah.

Posted by value88 > 2018-09-01 11:56 | Report Abuse

Chicken King's article showed he/she has in depth knowledge on this industry. Thanks for sharing.

Posted by chkhooju > 2018-09-01 12:06 | Report Abuse

Kind of crazy to say this stock will trade limit up at this point. Or, shall I say sheer ignorance and stupidity?

Posted by Temp > 2018-09-01 14:08 | Report Abuse

Talk is cheap. If you think you can beat the great wizard in i3, then just sell your shares if have any.

When the wizard posted his article related to hrc and crc. You still don't know what's the difference between them. I advise you, keep serious in what the writer has mentioned above and go to do some homework.

Posted by probability > 2018-09-02 15:30 | Report Abuse

wasnt that to do with QL aggressive take over threat?

Posted by shpg22 > Sep 2, 2018 03:29 PM | Report Abuse

Everyone keep thinking investors had overreacted by selling down. When in actual facts it is the reverse, they had overreacted by buying up. The stock has been overvalued for quite some time.

Posted by shpg22 > 2018-09-02 15:31 | Report Abuse

Everyone keep thinking investors had overreacted by selling down. When in actual facts it is the reverse, they had overreacted by buying up. The stock has been overvalued for quite some time. Now it just normalized. The same goes for most poultry stock, the worst being QL.

Posted by apolloang > 2018-09-02 20:01 | Report Abuse

sasbadi down more than layhong

Posted by apolloang > 2018-09-02 20:02 | Report Abuse

titijaya and sapnrg also down more than layhong

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-09-02 20:04 | Report Abuse

u dump now still got some cash, u dump later become toilet paper

Posted by KLCI King > 2018-09-03 15:53 | Report Abuse

Good sharing with facts & references. Well done & thank you!

Herbert is thousands miles below the average standard, not to mention comparing him to good class articles.

Bruce88 HerbertChua again ..
31/08/2018 19:20

Posted by KLCI King > 2018-09-03 15:57 | Report Abuse

one of the best articles series so far in this year