Posted by Nonare > 2018-11-10 16:41 | Report Abuse

Hi KC, won't disagree completely with focusing on the process but the market can reward a wrong process for a long period of time e.g. someone investing in gold (for whatever reason), would have done 10x from 1970-1980 only to lose 80% over the next 2 decades.

Also I'm not sure if value investing has been proven by academic research. After all, CAPM and not value investing is still the standard curriculum at university. Furthermore, I hardly think EPF or KWAP or PNB has or would state that they invest based on value investing.

There are people who knows that they are gambling but there are also people who truly believes that they have an "investment process". For example, a prominent investor (who laid his case for one of the stocks in your Appendix) has clearly enunciated his investment process and has made his money. I suspect though you would have disagreed with his investment process and vice versa.

So I'm just wondering, and I don't mean any disrespect here, but I'm really curious as to how you convinced yourself your process is correct because I also struggle with this. I presume you would have to derive from first principles because quoting other successful investors (e.g. Buffett) or stock market returns won't be convincing. There are also other investors that don't adopt value investing that has shown tremendous success e.g. Stanley Druckenmiller, George Soros, James Simons. In short, how do you know your alpha factor was "value investing" and not say "malaysia small cap" or "high volatility" or something else?

Posted by dompeilee > 2018-11-10 16:45 | Report Abuse

A glance @ KESM thread will show you one of the biggest failed calls of the year by hstha -everyone knows his fiasco there- accumulate for a target of $22! Wohooohooooo!!! : https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/9334.jsp

Posted by dompeilee > 2018-11-10 16:46 | Report Abuse

That's his MO - he bought loads @ $15 hoping others would heed his call a la KYY & chase the stock up so he could UNLOAD...

Posted by dompeilee > 2018-11-10 16:54 | Report Abuse

Thanks, Musangking...you have been to Huaan thread & know the genuineness of my buy call there in Feb '17 when the price was still 3-3.5c.

Yet, LUCK was also a big factor in my Huaan trade - was stuck with big paper losses averaging down from my first purchases @ 15.5c in Sep '14 - yet when I bought 100,000+ shares at the time in 2017, I had already done my homework digging up everything I could find out about the biz(Good Process) & knew what I was buying by then...

Posted by dompeilee > 2018-11-10 17:00 | Report Abuse

Contrary to hstha's misinterpretations, I never claim to have a 100% success record - I have paper losses just like practically every professional fund manager in the world today, merely stating that I managed to find at least ONE stock(sometimes up to SIX in a day) to lock a paper profit on every single Bursa session since Jan 10th 2017.

But after my Huaan experience, I don't fear paper losses =)

Even my Daiman purchase @ 2.61 in '15 & SPB purchase @ 4.557 in '16 became profitable only by sheer luck...but I knew what I was buying into.

Posted by hstha > 2018-11-10 19:36 | Report Abuse

I have never talked with dompeilee before. But i believe that he did not buy Kesm and Huaan at a very low price a long time ago. He did not write about Kesm and Huaan at that time. Plus he is a swing trader.

Posted by hstha > 2018-11-10 19:38 | Report Abuse

You cannot find a job for two years. Get real.

Posted by probability > 2018-11-10 20:31 | Report Abuse

Hi KC, would love to know your opinion on Fundmyhome.

Smells like asking newbies to invest on warrants....if the mother share price (house price) appreciates in 5 year plus (warrant expiry) warrant owner gains...

if the house depreciates, damage on the buyers are significant.

frankly i did not understand the concept well

It would be nice to have your article on this as you would be able to articulate it well for everyone's understanding...especially the newbies

Posted by probability > 2018-11-10 20:34 | Report Abuse

The below is a nice graph giving summary:

https://media.malaymail.com/uploads/articles/2018/2018-11/distribution-of-sale-proceeds.jpg

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2018-11-10 20:45 | Report Abuse

Haha this guy keep aim koon koon .

Posted by probability > 2018-11-10 20:47 | Report Abuse

appears like more than the buyer the investors are the one taking the risks.... if the house price drops, they will lose a lot.

property sellers secured a value to their properties while these investors may risk not even having a normal return of 5% per annum...

the property sellers have passed the risk of their properties value appreciation to these innocent investors i guess...

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2018-11-10 21:27 | Report Abuse

I am laughing like no tomorrow . This Kc look cheap ,feel shame to his student.

Posted by probability > 2018-11-10 21:35 | Report Abuse

in a nutshell its like the buyer is the equity provider and the investors are the debt provider for a business of property investment (with income being the rental or appreciation)...

if the returns are much higher than the cost of debt in 5 years (5% per annum i guess), the equity providers made a wise decision...

else, both equity and debt provider would be losing...and the damage is higher on the equity provider

guess all boils down to the judgement of the equity provider on the expected return...

being first time home owner...meaning probably very young...might not make the best decision

and being more gullible, they are probably capitalized by the properties sellers to catalyze the purchasing activity and pull in these investors...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-11-10 22:15 | Report Abuse

Posted by Nonare > Nov 10, 2018 04:41 PM | Report Abuse

Hi KC, won't disagree completely with focusing on the process but the market can reward a wrong process for a long period of time e.g. someone investing in gold (for whatever reason), would have done 10x from 1970-1980 only to lose 80% over the next 2 decades.


Me: Focus on the process of course means the right process. I don't know what gold investors' process is, is there one?


Also I'm not sure if value investing has been proven by academic research. After all, CAPM and not value investing is still the standard curriculum at university. Furthermore, I hardly think EPF or KWAP or PNB has or would state that they invest based on value investing.


Me: You can actually read many of those research through scholar goggle, I think, which have many of them proving value investing works in the long term.
The curriculum in university in investing is not necessary the right approach in real life investing. I don't use it although I have gone through the curriculum and very good at it. I never use CAPM in investing myself.

EPF is not necessary following value investing. I actually doubt so.


There are people who knows that they are gambling but there are also people who truly believes that they have an "investment process". For example, a prominent investor (who laid his case for one of the stocks in your Appendix) has clearly enunciated his investment process and has made his money. I suspect though you would have disagreed with his investment process and vice versa.


Me: Is his process plausible? has it been proven successful rigorously? Do you find it is a successful process from his record, not from his wealth which he claims? You are right, I don't buy it.


So I'm just wondering, and I don't mean any disrespect here, but I'm really curious as to how you convinced yourself your process is correct because I also struggle with this. I presume you would have to derive from first principles because quoting other successful investors (e.g. Buffett) or stock market returns won't be convincing.


Me: Just goggle and read the numerous articles I have written on value investing in i3investor, and the records I have shown you there. There are hundreds of articles there. Then see if they can convince you. It is entirely up to you.
Value investing is buying good companies at cheap or reasonable price. Don't you think it is pure simple logic? So we have to have a good process to find good companies, and have some valuation techniques to determine price versus value.


There are also other investors that don't adopt value investing that has shown tremendous success e.g. Stanley Druckenmiller, George Soros, James Simons. In short, how do you know your alpha factor was "value investing" and not say "malaysia small cap" or "high volatility" or something else?

Me: I don't deny there are other ways of investing which can also be very successful. You must understand them and see if they suit you. For me, I am only propagating value investing.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-11-10 22:19 | Report Abuse

Posted by BuahCiku > Nov 10, 2018 08:51 PM | Report Abuse
Aiyo...uncle koon still writer no 1 enemy kah...why why why...move on lah...why why why ...keep writing uncle koon story...writer not boring kah...or...too boring baru write uncle koon story...sound like very petty leh..why why why ....aiyoyo...kikiki


Whose no 1 enemy?
Where does this person appears in my article?
How is this article his story?
Why is this person so great that I "keep writing his story"?
This article so "petty"? In what way?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-11-10 22:47 | Report Abuse

Posted by BuahCiku > Nov 10, 2018 10:39 PM | Report Abuse
Aiyo....why why why...everytime...qqq3...or...sendai..or ...jaks...not petty meh....read also can sense....pettyness...sourness...why why why...all...also....related to uncle koon....why why why..keep writing same companies...once enuf lah..why why why... cannot move on lah...never ending one keep writing lah....why why why....btw...can ask something...what you think about HRC...any comment on this company...can buy or not...aiyoyo...kikiki


Where do Jaks and Sendai appear in my article?

But very frankly speaking, Jaks and Sendai are perfect examples which good to be used again and again to illustrate how some people tout those shares and encouraging the public to use margin to sailang. A good lesson of the fall from RM1.80+ to less than half the value in less than half a year, that margin finance should never to be encouraged.

I seriously won't get bored using these same examples.

Posted by dompeilee > 2018-11-11 08:07 | Report Abuse

In answer to doubters of my claim to have purchased KESM early, before anyone in this forum, when no one wanted it, a screenshot of my contract statement from '13:

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xcqwBlEZ7hY/WTX3VXB3-oI/AAAAAAAAC-Y/IJDCH8ub-1IlNceKOBOfjK3cRPZeHK_FwCLcB/s1600/KESMpurchase.png


Unfortunately, the biggest promoter of KESM, hstha, chose to buy when it had already risen +783% from my entry level...LOL!!!

Posted by hstha > 2018-11-11 11:53 | Report Abuse

dompeilee, you have been struggling in life. You are very poor!
The amount you buy for each stock is like you are still a student, not a top trader!. How do you make a living???

-----------------
This very poor jobless person claims that he is a genius and a top trader. What a joke!! In 2016 he bought the amount of MYR 1374.11 for one stock He is broke!!

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-11-11 11:59 | Report Abuse

domp...I also can show contract note i bought at $ 4.....too bad I sold at $ 4.70...(I think)

Posted by hstha > 2018-11-11 12:15 | Report Abuse

Don't expect that the worst thing will happen. It will never happen. People have tendency to avoid the worst thing.

I informed you that the worst thing would not happen before the Malaysian budget announcement.

During Greek government-debt and DRB-HICOM crises, i was very optimistic because I knew the worst thing would never happen.

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2018-11-11 12:47 | Report Abuse

This KC very low class keep aim an old man to attack ,feel shame to your mom and your student, Kc your mom teach you attack a charity old man? I am laughing like no tomorrow.

Koon koon not a good investor but he have donate his money to help poor students, how about you KC? Did your mom got educate you? Kc your mom sure very proud la look what you have done Hahaha.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-11-11 12:59 | Report Abuse

hstha

stock market is about Games People Play....

who can play the game better.?

take the Budget or the US mid term elections,

people may have opinions about its likely outcomes ...and people starts discounting, buying or selling....and when the out come comes....how would the markets behave? Its games people play that determines stock prices......not the economic implications.......

so, we have buy on news, sell on news....we also have buy on news and goes higher and higher after the news.......which is it? would u care to punt?

whichever it is....until we have short selling ...no body makes any money unless he has a positive attitude......and willing to pay the price in risk.......

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-11-11 13:00 | Report Abuse

same too for kc.....the talkative value investor but no guts to buy shares can never make money.....



stock market is about Games People Play....

who can play the game better.?

take the Budget or the US mid term elections,

people may have opinions about its likely outcomes ...and people starts discounting, buying or selling....and when the out come comes....how would the markets behave? Its games people play that determines stock prices......not the economic implications.......

so, we have buy on news, sell on news....we also have buy on news and goes higher and higher after the news.......which is it? would u care to punt?

whichever it is....until we have short selling ...no body makes any money unless he has a positive attitude......and willing to pay the price in risk.......

Posted by hstha > 2018-11-11 13:20 | Report Abuse

dompeilee, don't show us your empty bag. You have bought the amount of MYR 1374.11 for one stock. I have never bought such a small amount. That's the way a poor man buys stocks.

----

Posted by dompeilee > 2018-11-11 17:00 | Report Abuse

hstha.. if you are really not DISHONEST,stop avoiding the question everyone has been asking - How many lots at each price above $15 did you buy? Now is the time to show off how much $$$ you USED TO have..c'mon c'mon c'mon..WahAAHAHHA!!!

Posted by hstha > 2018-11-11 17:28 | Report Abuse

dompeilee, No top traders buy the amount of USD 300 - 400 for each stock. Haha

---

Posted by hstha > 2018-11-11 17:38 | Report Abuse

Kesm is for my long-term investment. I don't mind a short-term paper loss for Kesm.

In FY208Q3 Kesm's revenue dropped compared to the previous quarter, but before that, Kesm's revenue had increased in 13 consecutive quarters!!

That's because a demand for vehicle electrification has been surging, so you can still expect Kesm's revenue will increase consecutively for a long time.

Posted by Koon Bee > 2018-11-11 21:21 | Report Abuse

Low class KC every day and night think of something to attack uncle Kyy.

Salute uncle Kyy did so much if charity by sponsoring hundred of students and to pg USM rm50 mil. Thumbs up!!

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-11-12 03:20 | Report Abuse

stock market.....its adapt or perish. This kc, the value investor, shows no ability to adapt.....sure to perish.

Traders are different. Traders always adapt. Traders always have to keep thinking and keep adapting.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-11-12 12:07 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Nov 11, 2018 11:59 AM | Report Abuse
domp...I also can show contract note i bought at $ 4.....too bad I sold at $ 4.70...(I think)


Can show this contract note ah?

Posted by qqq3 > Nov 11, 2018 12:17 PM | Report Abuse
I also sailang UMW $1 at that time sold soon after at $ 1.80.....went out to celebrate

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-11-12 12:12 | Report Abuse

kc...why would I want to show any thing? u think this is MACC investigation? This is only a forum.......

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-11-12 12:16 | Report Abuse

Why? Here is why.



Posted by calvintaneng > Nov 11, 2018 07:11 PM | Report Abuse
This qqq3 is Questionable queer gundu!

UMW WHERE GOT RM1. 00 IN YEAR 2008

I OWNED UMW SINCE YEAR 2004 UNTIL NOW - 14 YEARS ALREADY

I BOUGHT 10 LOTS OF UMW IN YEAR 2004 FOR RM4. 80. AND IT GAVE A ONE FOR ONE BONUS SO I HAD 20 LOTS OF UMW AT RM2. 40

Next year in 2005 UMW dropped to a low of rm2. 32. After that it shot up all the way to Rm16. 00 by year 2013.

For year 2008 UMW highest price was Rm7. 65 and the lowest price was rm4. 82

So you better keep your mouth shut if you don't know the history of UMW

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-11-12 12:18 | Report Abuse

Ops...someone kena tangkap

If wanna tell lie do some homework first lah

Wanna do something do it properly

Ahjib is yr best example

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-11-12 12:22 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Nov 11, 2018 12:17 PM | Report Abuse
I also sailang UMW $1 at that time sold soon after at $ 1.80.....went out to celebrate

Posted by qqq3 > Nov 12, 2018 12:12 PM | Report Abuse

kc...why would I want to show any thing? u think this is MACC investigation? This is only a forum.......

Posted by calvintaneng > Nov 11, 2018 07:11 PM | Report Abuse
This qqq3 is Questionable queer gundu!

UMW WHERE GOT RM1. 00 IN YEAR 2008

I OWNED UMW SINCE YEAR 2004 UNTIL NOW - 14 YEARS ALREADY

I BOUGHT 10 LOTS OF UMW IN YEAR 2004 FOR RM4. 80. AND IT GAVE A ONE FOR ONE BONUS SO I HAD 20 LOTS OF UMW AT RM2. 40

Next year in 2005 UMW dropped to a low of rm2. 32. After that it shot up all the way to Rm16. 00 by year 2013.

For year 2008 UMW highest price was Rm7. 65 and the lowest price was rm4. 82

Recorded.

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-11-12 12:25 | Report Abuse

Maybe u can try to twist saying u bought UMW at RM1.00 at 1957 or 1960+ or 1970+ after searching for the price history...

Still can win yr case....

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-11-12 12:25 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Nov 11, 2018 07:23 PM | Report Abuse X

ok...UMW $1...was the 1997 crisis......but the point is....all these tabulations are a form of trickery....

does not apply to active participants...and certainly does not apply to sifus or to kc..........

people forgot......every day stock market also got positive and negative reasons.....


https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600181853.jsp

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-11-12 12:26 | Report Abuse

Dont give up easily like KYY when he said sorry to KC after few days

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-11-12 12:27 | Report Abuse

Posted by CharlesT > Nov 12, 2018 12:25 PM | Report Abuse X

Maybe u can try to twist saying u bought UMW at RM1.00 at 1957 or 1960+ or 1970+ after searching for the price history...

Still can win yr case..

Posted by qqq3 > Nov 11, 2018 07:23 PM | Report Abuse X

ok...UMW $1...was the 1997 crisis......but the point is....all these tabulations are a form of trickery....

Fast learner...I like it..u are smarter than Koon coz u can learn fast

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-11-12 12:27 | Report Abuse

U owe me a cup of coffee Bro

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-11-12 12:31 | Report Abuse

Anyway KC is also not as smart as I thought...what for wasting a lot of time on a Idiot?

Better look for value stocks to hentam

Posted by kcchongnz > 2018-11-12 12:36 | Report Abuse

Posted by CharlesT > Nov 12, 2018 12:31 PM | Report Abuse
what for wasting a lot of time on a Idiot?

You are absolutely right!

Posted by ahbah > 2018-11-12 12:37 | Report Abuse

When mkt is high tide, everything float up even including pebbles, stones n giant rocks ! Then, luck counts very much.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-11-12 12:41 | Report Abuse

CharlesT > Nov 12, 2018 12:31 PM | Report Abuse

Better look for value stocks to hentam
=======================================

hantam your nuts. This is not the time to hantam shares. Hantam value investors can.

hantam all the inflexible people , hantam all who cannot adapt.

its not survival of the fittest, its survival of the most adaptable........, Neathethals, I was told used to be very fit.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-11-12 12:52 | Report Abuse

the problem of value investors fighting the last war.......


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/guru/181971.jsp

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-11-14 09:53 | Report Abuse

kc....

I got super stocks supermax and layhong.....u got or not?


luck?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-11-14 09:55 | Report Abuse

supermax, layhong, FLH.......

all companies expected to do well in current environment ...and shares reflecting it.....

luck or skill?

stock market so easy......

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-11-14 10:34 | Report Abuse

by rajachulan > Nov 14, 2018 10:04 AM | Report Abuse

Very interesting! if I may add

Fundamentals can go against price (stock go up on bad news)
By the time fundamentals is out, it’s usually too late to enter
It’s difficult to manage your risk based on fundamentals
=============

buy on rumor sell on news is well known....one of the first lessons people learn......but this is not the lesson here.....

the lesson here is really about front view drive vs rear view drive.......

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-11-14 10:36 | Report Abuse

http://blairbellecurve.com/we-only-see-a-version-of-the-truth/

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-11-14 13:31 | Report Abuse

kc....

this week, whole market down...my two big investments Layhong and Supermax becomes super stocks......luck or skill? u tell me.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-11-14 17:23 | Report Abuse

so where is that kc? luck or skill?