Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-06 14:18 | Report Abuse

choi...everybody lose money....nobody built plants lo...

that is the trouble with all these extrapolate here extrapolate there...all starts with the conclusions and work backwards.....

well...market bearish...every body runs for cover.....

Posted by speakup > 2018-12-06 14:18 | Report Abuse

PN17 coming?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-06 14:21 | Report Abuse

extrapolate here extrapolate there no use one...no one has more accurate information that the people doing the stuffs., and putting their money where the mouth is.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-06 14:22 | Report Abuse

Can build plants profitably.

But this one dont look like it.

Feel free to provide new information or insight that will prove me wrong.

===
Posted by qqq3 > Dec 6, 2018 02:18 PM | Report Abuse

choi...everybody lose money....nobody built plants lo...

that is the trouble with all these extrapolate here extrapolate there...all starts with the conclusions and work backwards.....

well...market bearish...every body runs for cover.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-06 14:24 | Report Abuse

bull or bear is a matter of practise, habits and character.....no need to extrapolate here extrapolate there.....my opinion...no need to prorate and extrapolate and reinvent the wheel......your figures not likely to be any more accurate than what the company/ bankers have......

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-06 14:25 | Report Abuse

not comfortable avoid.....

comfortable....why comfortable?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-06 14:26 | Report Abuse

anyway the share is at 50 sen

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-06 14:32 | Report Abuse

you skipped lunch just to write this article ?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-06 14:33 | Report Abuse

I also can find other bad things to say about Jaks...but at 50sen...if it right choice? its always about choice, always about taking the risk or not....and about the evidence.
more evidence less risk....and the least risk is to buy 1 MDB bonds...shit...company is a fraud still Pakatan government want to pay them in full....where got like that one?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-06 14:34 | Report Abuse

Posted by SarifahSelinder > Dec 6, 2018 02:26 PM |Report Abuse X

Sarifah tot patut use DCF for IPP now very confused 


Ah jon kasi tambah coal Rm 1,000,000,000 lain lain Rm 275,000,000 

Katakan la total cost Rm 2,000,000,000 setahun 

Kira estimate rate charge berapa USD per kWH to see reasonable or not? 

Up time 80% 

1,200MW= 1,200,000 (kW)  


Sarifah pun x tahu ok not x tahu kira

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-06 14:34 | Report Abuse

I dont take typically lunch. Makes me sleepy.

I had the research down from last time. And that long comment made in jaks forum.

Well, might as well compile it.

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-06 14:41 | Report Abuse

No wonder jaks got such a lucractive contracts...at first i thought ALP opened his legs to get it

Posted by pussycats > 2018-12-06 14:41 | Report Abuse

Good write up.

Posted by speakup > 2018-12-06 14:41 | Report Abuse

pn17 coming?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-06 14:43 | Report Abuse

Choivo Capital
Feel free to provide new information or insight that will prove me wrong.
========

it can be independently verified that the project cost is within norms in Vietnam and the world.....management did indeed convince analysts who go see them of this point.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-06 14:46 | Report Abuse

invest or not is choice..

but I don't like people justifying their opinions by extrapolate here, extrapolate there.....no need one...it is just a personal way of looking at things.......

some people use maths like maths is God...but their maths are based on assumptions....some times fantasies.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-06 14:49 | Report Abuse

serifah,

I think your method might be a touch too simplistic. Theres too many factors.

I think the best estimate is the EBIT of a power company in vietnam.

Do you calculations using your won method if you want.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-06 14:52 | Report Abuse

estimate rate charge berapa USD per kWH berapa bolih lari?

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-06 14:52 | Report Abuse

If they can compound the interest and just throw the plant plus debt to the vietnam govt after 25 years. Or even just pay 50% of interest cost.

Massively profitable.

But i have never seen such a contract in my life, so i doubt it.



CharlesT No wonder jaks got such a lucractive contracts...at first i thought ALP opened his legs to get it
06/12/2018 14:41

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-06 14:57 | Report Abuse

jon

I think your method might be a touch too simplistic. Theres too many factors.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-06 15:10 | Report Abuse

It covers alot more than yours.

Only question is if the cost structures of other plants is hugely different. No idea.

Or if those earnings have extraordinary expenses or income. Nope, but details are scares.

Or you can just trust KYY and by extension, indirectly, the management figure of Rm200 -300m EBITDA.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2018-12-06 15:20 | Report Abuse

Adoi Sarifah stick to DCF for IPP

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-06 15:40 | Report Abuse

Well, thats pretty much a given.

I call EBITDA bullshit figures.

Now, if you disagree, show me the figures.


Serifah, give me all your assumptions and supporting documents.

===
i3lurker classic layman (who are also qualified accountants) mistake

business success does not depend on EBITDA
06/12/2018 15:16

Posted by kasinathan > 2018-12-06 15:55 | Report Abuse

Choivol,

Your write carried zero common sense.... If you were right,

1) do you think the controlling shareholder in Jacks will want to venture into this losing money business in Vietnam?

2) do you think the banker will want to give out the loan, knowing the project is not viable?

Reexamine your thought again?

Posted by kasinathan > 2018-12-06 15:59 | Report Abuse

Until and unless you access to the real contract signed between jaks and the Vietnam party, you assumption is super dangerous and carried negative value!

How can you dare to undertake valuation exercise without the essence of contract? Are you a newbie?

Posted by kasinathan > 2018-12-06 16:01 | Report Abuse

You are irresponsible newbie? Or worse still with bad motive?

You have made yourself a disgraceful writer... Shame!

Posted by kasinathan > 2018-12-06 16:02 | Report Abuse

With this immature mentality, you learning will be a self deceitful journey...

Posted by 3iii > 2018-12-06 16:05 | Report Abuse

This company goes into the "too hard to understand" tray.

Posted by kasinathan > 2018-12-06 16:05 | Report Abuse

Please revisit your write up .. the story of blind and elephant....

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-12-06 16:08 | Report Abuse

kasinathan > Dec 6, 2018 04:05 PM | Report Abuse

Please revisit your write up .. the story of blind and elephant....
==========

that is what too much maths do to people.

Posted by kasinathan > 2018-12-06 16:18 | Report Abuse

1) acknowledging what you know is good,
2) acknowledging what you don't know is great

3) pretending what you know but actually you
don't know is bad
4) assuming scenario without substantiated by fact is stupid!

Clearly, choivol is 4.....

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-06 16:20 | Report Abuse

Kasi,

Its not my money on the line. If i were religious, i'll pray for you. But since im not.

Good luck.

Posted by kasinathan > 2018-12-06 16:20 | Report Abuse

Believing in 4...with ego is suicidal!

Posted by ew8888 > 2018-12-06 16:23 | Report Abuse

if they know this project cannot generate profit, y do they take up in the first place?

Posted by kasinathan > 2018-12-06 16:24 | Report Abuse

Choivol. I had got zero investment in jaks..... But that doesn't prevent me from correcting your mistake.... After all, you keep on wordship knowing mistake is more valuable than making blindly money when comes to investment

Posted by kasinathan > 2018-12-06 16:28 | Report Abuse

qqq3, ...that is half past six math... That's stupid!

The real mathematician won't araggont without the essential info...

Posted by kasinathan > 2018-12-06 16:29 | Report Abuse

The thinking faculty is impaired! Only half past six newbie dare to teach veterans here'

Posted by kasinathan > 2018-12-06 16:33 | Report Abuse

Choivol,

For the sake of yourself, prisoned in a dark room and ponder why you made this mistake, what scenario indulging you impaired your cognitive thinking?

That would be worth a million ringgit to your journey of learning.... No points trumpet the slogan publicly but living in an opposite reality!

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-06 16:38 | Report Abuse

Do a project so that over next twenty five years loss 400 mil per annum ?

Ok ok let's say jaks is stupid and they do they, what is the chance that CPECC is also stupid at the same time and jump in to die together ?

I surrender



ew8888 if they know this project cannot generate profit, y do they take up in the first place?
06/12/2018 16:23

Posted by kasinathan > 2018-12-06 16:42 | Report Abuse

Just ignore the story of blind and elephant..... Perhaps, my language is hard... But my motive is pure!

Bye bye

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-06 16:44 | Report Abuse

Not i say one.

Management/kyy say one. 200-300m a year before depreciation and interest cost.

You heard of commercial loan from bank no need pay interest?

I'll put it like this. You should consider reading more financial statements of failed companies.

Look at sapura and the seadrill deal. One look at the figures then can tell its a bad idea. But they did it.

in any event, just a 4% position for you. Its a gamble.

=====
Icon8888 Do a project so that over next twenty five years loss 400 mil per annum ?

Ok ok let's say jaks is stupid and they do they, what is the chance that CPECC is also stupid at the same time and jump in to die together ?

I surrender

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-06 16:46 | Report Abuse

Because they thought it would.

But i say the probabilties are low. We'll see a few years from now.

I'm happy to be proven wrong.

====
ew8888 if they know this project cannot generate profit, y do they take up in the first place?
06/12/2018 16:23

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-06 16:46 | Report Abuse

Maybe KYY's 200 mil per annum is referring to jaks' portion of 30% ?

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-06 16:50 | Report Abuse

Hmm he stated clearly its before dep and interest.

If he were to refer to 30% portion, i would think they would net those off?

Unless they mean net dividend, but that would mean the entire plant can transfer to gov with the debt.

Very unlikely.

Its a too hard for me, unless someone can bring some light into it.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-06 16:54 | Report Abuse

Now you sound not so sure anymore

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-06 17:00 | Report Abuse

I'm not the one putting money in it.

And i've never said i was sure.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2018-12-06 17:01 | Report Abuse

Anyway this is an entertaining article

Now people know how good you are in terms of analysis

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-06 17:02 | Report Abuse

Koon was so sure that vietnam ipp will be a heaven two years ago n now he is not so sure

Jon was so sure that vietnam ipp wil be holland 3 hours ago n now he is not so sure..

Happy guessing

Posted by CharlesT > 2018-12-06 17:03 | Report Abuse

Whoever can solve the puzzle can either go heaven or go holland

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2018-12-06 17:05 | Report Abuse

I'd rather be shown to be stupid and wrong.

At least i'll learn something.

Mind helping me out with that in relation to JAKS?

====
Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 6, 2018 05:00 PM | Report Abuse

Anyway this is an entertaining article

Now people know how good you are