Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-16 11:05 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Apr 16, 2019 10:43 AM | Report Abuse X

My thoughts on this thing. By the end of the year, it will be above $ 1.00............in the mean time,

- what is the trading range?
- was this thing drag up by small cap sentiments in last few months?
- how low can it go if small cap sentiment disappears?
- next results will be drag down by cost of LTIP

What about 70 sen?....is it possible? Of course it is possible, any thing is possible in share market. I am not here to play God.

Long term funds like Philips is not convinced. He has his reasons and his points.

But share market is able taking your risks and getting rewarded for taking the risks and about grit...........

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-16 11:07 | Report Abuse

thanks to DK.............now everyone can be IPP expert.....maybe even get a job that requires such expertise.

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-16 11:08 | Report Abuse

I wonder how many would agree with me on my Matrix ......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-16 12:04 | Report Abuse

I have known they are closing coal plants in US left right and center due to competition from shale gas and as total cost of newer solar plants is competitive to variable cost of coal plants.

But this IPP is governed by PPA and the coal comes from upstream.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-16 13:52 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/yeo-bee-yin-malaysia-opens-tender-rm2b-largescale-solar-power-projects


"Tariffs are more stable for renewable energy because they are calculated based on the levelised cost of energy, instead of relying on market prices of fuel which is an issue we are currently faced with.

"While solar tariffs went as low as 33.98 sen per kilowatt hour under LSS2, we believe that tariffs could go lower with this open tender exercise and welcome the lowest prices," she said.

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-16 15:27 | Report Abuse

Anyone with alternative views ? Mr Sslee, Philip or any sifu ?

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-16 15:44 | Report Abuse

Any comment, icon8888, kcchongnz ?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-04-16 17:14 | Report Abuse

DK66

Mcm mana u get this 7.5b KwH?

The IPP produced 7.5b KwH of electricity annually

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-04-16 17:37 | Report Abuse

Jz nak tahu je

Sarifah faham u want to show there is guaranteed profit under the 2 tier PPA

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-04-16 17:59 | Report Abuse

What the...

How come Sarifah got drawn into tis kind of complicated calculations?

Sarifah has been relaying on the sistem that is working

Sarifah rely je on the lawyers engineers bankers dan experienced CPEEC to cover Sarifah back

No problem cara ni


LOL

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-16 18:12 | Report Abuse

Sarifah, 7.5b kWh is based on 77% plant load factor

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-16 18:14 | Report Abuse

1112000x24x365x77%

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-04-16 18:23 | Report Abuse

Not 600,000,000 × 2 × 0.77 × 24 × 365
= 8,094,240,000 kWH

Not 600,000,000 x 2? Ada susut nilai?

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-16 19:59 | Report Abuse

No, dependable capacity only 556,000 Kw per unit

Posted by Sslee > 2019-04-16 20:03 | Report Abuse

Dear DK66,
I am tired of speculation hence please attend the AGM and email in your questions in advance to JAKS IR.
Dear IR,
For the upcoming JAKS 17th AGM, Q&A session, I had prepared my questions as per below: It is my hope that CEO will well prepared and make presentation on the answers to my questions.
I refer: https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/st88k/5398_GAMUDA/pt/KENANGA/5398_GAMUDA_KENANGA_2019-04-12_HOLD_2.85_Vietnam%20Study%20Trip%20-%20Hustling%20and%20Bustling_-1645898265.pdf
Currently estimated to be 55% completed, management anticipates that it is able to commission the first of its two turbines possibly by the end of 2019.
Q1.Please confirms the first of its two turbines startup date?

Charging on units of power produced, assuming the plant is able to keep up with the minimum utilisation requirement; the project is expected to yield up to USD120.0m/year of net-of-tax profits.
Q2: Is minimum utilization requirement refer to 1,200x 1000 x 24 x 365 x 0.77 = 8,094,240,000 KWh per year?
Q3: If so the USD120 m/year of net-of –tax works out to be about USD 1.5 cents per KWh net of-tax guarantee profit per KWh. Please confirm?
Q4. I understand that the rate include a pass over Coal cost. Is this pass thro’ coal cost per KWh formulated with certain efficient Kg Coal/KWh X USD Kg of coal cost? And what is this efficient Kg coal/KWh?
Q5. Is this coal unit price base on international price + delivery cost to site? Or actual coal payment invoice? And of what Coal BTU heat value?
Q6. Are Capacity payment includes:
1. A fixed and variable operation and maintenance cost of the power plant? And what is the amount/year?
2. A fixed depreciation cost? And what is the amount/year?
3. A fixed repayment of JV’s USD 1.4 billion loan interest and principal? And what is the amount/year?
4. A sinking fund for Major Turnaround? And what is the amount/year?
5. Please give a brief 25 years expected Free Cash Flow per year? What is the dividend policy of distribution % CFC as dividend? Is JAKS intends to repatriate this dividend back to Malaysia? And reward JAKS shareholder with dividend?

After recognising the last mile of the power plant's outstanding bill only 46% billed in 4Q18 results, RM1.02b unbilled as of now:
Q7. Will this unbilled RM 1.02b Vietnam Power plant EPC works able to generated Net profit of RM 381.3 million to pay for JAKS 30% equity balance capital in JAKS Pacific Power Limited, Vietnam Power plant JV?

Concerning the group’s other operations, management hopes for their property development segment to achieve operating breakeven as it has secured more tenants for its EVOLVE Mall.
Q8. What is current EVOLVE mall occupation %? What % will be the breakeven? When and how to achieve this %?

Other avenues for consideration may be to bid for construction projects in Vietnam, having already established a presence here.
Q9. JAKS fare miserably on construction projects in Malaysia. What are the rational business reasons in bidding for constructions projects in Vietnam? Are you going to use Dividend from Power Plant JV to fund this construction projects? Is that mean no Power Plant JV dividend received by JAKS will be repatriated to Malaysia to give JAKS shareholders special dividend?
Q10. Any other questions you want the CEO to clarify.

Thank you

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-16 20:03 | Report Abuse

EVN only take the output at delivery point. You have to deduct the ancillary power consumption

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-16 20:39 | Report Abuse

sslee...I think u should stick with Insas.....don't go to Jaks AGM please......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-16 20:42 | Report Abuse

counting pubic hair.....

can know share go up or down by counting pubic hair?

Posted by hollandking > 2019-04-16 20:45 | Report Abuse

your jaks article u need to write TO UNCLE..... , if not he wont noticed. You need to convince him to come back, then u have a chance. U must be very convincing. He got hurt badly before, so he most likely wont come back BUT i think in his article he had written before not wrong to come back if after selling and it doesnt go your way, he say can buyback one. So not sure if it still hold or not

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-16 20:52 | Report Abuse

KYY is just a small time player. There are many other syndicates around. All Jaks need to do is to open the book let them see the earning projections, and make some arrangement to coordinate buy and sell, then the syndicates will happily participate

stretch your imagination a bit

dont always think that stocks wont move without KYY



Posted by hollandking > Apr 16, 2019 8:45 PM | Report Abuse

your jaks article u need to write TO UNCLE..... , if not he wont noticed. You need to convince him to come back, then u have a chance. U must be very convincing. He got hurt badly before, so he most likely wont come back BUT i think in his article he had written before not wrong to come back if after selling and it doesnt go your way, he say can buyback one. So not sure if it still hold or not

Posted by Ricky Kiat > 2019-04-16 21:23 | Report Abuse

bro sslee, tq for ur concern n effort.

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-16 21:24 | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee,

Thank you for your effort.

I can see your strong interest in looking for answers to clear your doubts in Jaks.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-04-17 08:33 | Report Abuse

Minimum 77% how high can the plant go? 100%?

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-04-17 08:40 | Report Abuse

Nampak questions mcm same style je Sslee boleh kerjasama dgn MSWG both asking almost questions yg sama


Is it a good idea to have MSWG watch over ALP too?

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-17 08:47 | Report Abuse

Around 90% top
---------------------
SarifahSelinder Minimum 77% how high can the plant go? 100%?
17/04/2019 8:33 AM

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-04-17 08:51 | Report Abuse

90% is good

Taksiran Sarifah can hit sbb Vietnam in need of power

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-17 09:12 | Report Abuse

As can be seen from the Matrix for Energy Charge that potential earnings upside depends on the efficiency of the plant as well as the level of electricity output

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-04-17 09:17 | Report Abuse

about USD 1.5 cents per KWh net of-tax guarantee profit per KWh??


13% more is a lot more of profit

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-17 09:24 | Report Abuse

I believe the capacity charge accounts for the 12% IRR required by the Investor as it is definite and guaranteed.

12% IRR is the maximum allowed by vietnam under BOT contract

Therefore, operators seek additional returns from the energy charge

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-17 10:06 | Report Abuse

AGMs............got to understand.....

no need ask questions one.......

It is for the Directors to dress their best and for us to dance or not......


If they don't know how to dress the best, ask questions also no use one...................

believe or not?

Just see how they dress ( their presentations) , can decide already.....


can decide to dance or not......

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-17 10:08 | Report Abuse

AGMs....u are not supposed to help them to dress

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-17 10:10 | Report Abuse

Trust me............counting hairs, u will not learn girl is beautiful or not.................

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-17 10:10 | Report Abuse

Since the management has been quite proactive in giving out information after the Q3 2018 results. I would expect them to do the same in AGM.

----------------------------------------
qqq3 AGMs............got to understand.....

no need ask questions one.......

Just see how they dress ( their presentations) , can decide already.....

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-17 10:15 | Report Abuse

DK66 > Apr 17, 2019 10:10 AM | Report Abuse

Since the management has been quite proactive in giving out information after the Q3 2018 results. I would expect them to do the same in AGM.
======

right...........

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-04-17 13:04 | Report Abuse

qqq3

Jgn so last gomen

Taksiran Sarifah ALP will be forthcoming in the AGM as the IPP Vietnam is celebration

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-17 13:06 | Report Abuse

SarifahSelinder > Apr 17, 2019 1:04 PM | Report Abuse

qqq3

Jgn so last gomen

Taksiran Sarifah ALP will be forthcoming in the AGM as the IPP Vietnam is celebration
==========

yes, I also think 2019 is the year for celebrations after the tough year of 2018.

Posted by wetmarket > 2019-04-17 14:48 | Report Abuse

DK66 - We are looking forward for the good times.

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-20 22:08 | Report Abuse

My oversight in the following formula;

Cost per BTU should be;

Cost per BTU = Total Coal Costs / (Total quantity of coal received x Heating Value of coal )

instead of;

Cost per BTU = (Total quantity of coal received x Heating Value of coal ) / Total Coal Costs