The asset price has been inflated so high in tandem with the prolonged economic boon in USA. It's about to enter the slump period with asset can be diminishing 50% if the past downturn can be our guru.
conclusion is : don't buy and hold genting related stocks
management is the biggest shareholder, family control , can't do much about it, hostile take-over also no use, buy and hold long term sure mati.
unless limp cock tahi and his family hentam their own leg and do something stupid, then only got drama to watch, if not... the vampire will keep on sucking everyone else blood
boostmy is correct to say that this is a good deal. NY has very little casino, compared to Las vegas. It's the MOST VISITED city in USA Obtaining gaming license is extremely difficult, due to moral & legal issues. Now GenM buy over another license in Catskill at a mark-up of around 50%, sounds reasonable to me.
One of the best article i ever read. A very constructive analysis on the purchase and it make sense because the transaction would bring more benefit to the group, but many people don't see. Successful people are doing their best to grow the business bigger and better, instead of like so many people said LKT trying to con their money, what a pity.
GenM is buying the most important is gaming license, locality, synergies and branding in a good tourism location and the price doesn't even full blown price if they're going to built from scratch like that is happening to Genting Resort World.
New york has one of the most lousy tourist infrastructure in the world. it has shitty airport, shit bridges, shit roads. You can use Google Map street view to see that.
But despite all the shit, NY is the MOST visited tourist attraction in USA There's HUGE HUGE potential for hotels, theme parks, casino etc. The ang mo are too lazy to develop all these.
Boostmy: U hold alot of genm? Don forget Casino business wont be as good as previous. There are too many casino license. But based on my view, genm will reach 2.50 soon......
Price Paid Is Not Very Much Cheaper ----------------------------------- Actually Genting Malaysia will be paying only a small discount to the initial price KH paid because 2018 losses of USD 155 million.
So Genting Malaysia should be paying not more than USD 392 million less (USD 155 million x 0.84) ie USD 261 million value comparable.
Furthermore, the price did not taken into account 2019 losses which is likely to be around USD 155 million.
Sports Betting with Bet365 -------------------------- Contribution from sports betting will take awhile because there is a USD 12 million annual licence fee plus all takings will have to off-set Bet365 start-up costs. Only after that will Empire have a 50:50 share with Bet365.
New York only allows physical sports betting not online sports betting. Meaning those who bet must be at Catskills resorts.
Plan to shut Monticello Casino & Raceway ---------------------------------------- Empire plans to close its Monticello Casino & Raceway as they are currently cannibalising on Catskills. So if this plan is executed this year. You can expect further write-offs in 2019 that will impact Genting Malaysia's H2 2019 results.
Savings in interest ------------------- The only upside for 2019, is they will save a chunk of interest expenses (latest quarter interest is USD 17 million incurred and through net savings & savings in depreciation of closure of Monticello Casino & Raceway.
Revenue must rise quickly ------------------------- Revenue now is at USD 60 million per quarter and loss before interest is at around USD 20 million. Of the USD 60 million revenue only gaming is making significant money, ie for USD 45 million gaming revenue, they make about USD 11 million margins.
So if we are to eliminate the loss of USD 20 million, Empire will need either to improve gaming margins, current at a high of 25% compared with 15% last year or they have to increase gaming revenue by USD 100 million every quarter.
The improving GGR is quite convincing to show that Empire Resort is on the right track to breakeven. If GGR can continues to improve in quarters to come, I believe Empire Resort deal can turn from negative to positive.
I think the article above is more informative than what our local analysts have written. The analysts only stated Empire Resort has been at loss, but didn't analyse the GGR trend and etc to find out if Empire Resort has potential to breakeven in near future.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
kasinathan
967 posts
Posted by kasinathan > 2019-08-14 15:57 | Report Abuse
You are so naive.... The whole deal was viewed as conflict of interest and detrimental to the existing shareholder of GENM