Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-07 11:51 | Report Abuse

Is yinson a oil services unicorn? I think so, from the last 12 years since 2010, yinson has been a 100x company. imagine that for a malaysian company that not many people even realizes exists but can compete on the world stage.

Posted by ITreeinvestor > 2022-02-07 17:39 | Report Abuse

armada much better with pe5 only

Posted by Sslee > 2022-02-07 18:01 | Report Abuse

Do anyone sincerely believe a USD 120 per barrel oil is sustainable and desirable?

Do you know what is the cost for those land based oil production cost?
And what happen if these producers decide to open their tap to flood the market with oil?

Winter will be over soon and oil demand will tapper off.
So dream on the USD 120 per barrel oil.

Will new renewable energy take over fosil fuel in the future? The answer is not if but when.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-07 21:29 | Report Abuse

What is armada order book?

>>>>>>>>>
ITreeinvestor armada much better with pe5 only
07/02/2022 5:39 PM

Posted by MiaoMiao7 > 2022-02-07 21:58 | Report Abuse

@Sslee

I think in 1997 it was USD10 per barrel, or around there if i am not mistaken. Inflation will make sure oil will be USD100+ in the coming future, when? I dont know, 10 years from now? 20 years from now? who knows. it is going up for sure.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-07 22:19 | Report Abuse

Oil price sudden spike is not only because of oil demand but also due to shortage and disparity between supply and demand.

>>>>>>>>>>>
Winter will be over soon and oil demand will tapper off.
So dream on the USD 120 per barrel oil.

Posted by ahbah > 2022-02-07 22:25 | Report Abuse

Under investment in the oil industry leads to reduced production of oil.

So, USD 120 per barrel oil can become a reality in future.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-07 22:34 | Report Abuse

Yes, it takes time to restart productions and bring in drilling crew. In the meantime, those who are in the business will be enjoying huge earnings.

Posted by ahbah > 2022-02-07 22:40 | Report Abuse

Bankers are no longer supporting the oil industry. They prefer clean

energy like solar n electricity.

Oil / petrol powered vehicles are slowly been phased out.

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-02-07 23:37 | Report Abuse

sslee

oil production costs is a magical question

what is fixed is Exxon Permian costs USD30.00 per barrel
its land based so costs are flat lined


what is low is Saudi USD0.50 ex-well head costs. Saudi has huge social costs becoz 1 guy has 4 wives and 150 children, all not working and all paid a monthly amount by Govt.
[btw Malaysia wants to benchmark them in this no work got money matter too]
Long story short Saudi needs USD65 to 75 to make budget positive, so this becomes their oil production costs.

:)





Sslee Do anyone sincerely believe a USD 120 per barrel oil is sustainable and desirable?

Do you know what is the cost for those land based oil production cost?
And what happen if these producers decide to open their tap to flood the market with oil?

Winter will be over soon and oil demand will tapper off.
So dream on the USD 120 per barrel oil.

Will new renewable energy take over fosil fuel in the future? The answer is not if but when.
07/02/2022 6:01 PM

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-02-08 05:51 | Report Abuse

All the shale gas projects in US is reactivating at today’s oil price . I seriously doubt OPEC wants to see oil price above $100 for too long to encourage competition from shale.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-02-08 05:52 | Report Abuse

Bear in mind Oil market is always very cyclical and political.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-08 07:37 | Report Abuse

I personally believe shale as an industry does not work as the associated costs are far too high. Maybe once middle East production reduces.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-02-08 07:53 | Report Abuse

It is widely reported Shale oil production cost is USD35 - USD60 varying between producers. Opec once said in few years ago that oil price should be USD60 to thwart surge of shales production.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-08 08:30 | Report Abuse

Here is where we look at safety, do you buy bumi armada with a history of delays in FPSO uptime and lawsuits with clients on non production? They do have a firm order book of 15 billion ringgit, however their cash position is weak and will not be able to bid for more big jobs( I suspect FEED will go to yinson), meanwhile they are only recently out of the woods with there current contract oil price.

Meanwhile you have yinson which is double the market cap, yet they have 4 times the order book at 15 billion USD, a long history of completing their projects on time and on schedule, and most important they are linking with all the big clients with good payment.

Who will you choose? I know where my line in the sand is drawn.

Posted by Windy1974 > 2022-02-08 13:13 | Report Abuse

Hi Philip. Well written as usual and it shows how much time you have spent on your investment.
However, please enlighten me how is Hibiscus speculative stock? I am sure you have got basis? With oil price USD120, producers are the first to benefit. Especially so if the oil price could sustain. As you highlighted, any FPSO secured would be 3 years down the road. So, any new projects won't be materialised till 2025-2026 earliest. I have read up about investments in oil & gas going forward. The world at best gonna replaced the depleted production. Meaning that this is indeed a matured industry. Petronas, Shell etc not gonna produced more oil but they still can benefit from better prices. The only benefits services providers in O&G can get is by increased service rates (if any).
Is Yinson under valued? I don't know. Let's just highlight the risk.
1. Many FPSO contracts are about to expired. Extension is an unknown.
2. The long tenure FPSOs both from Brazil and yet to show profit.
As for renewable energy Yinson got into, what's the IRR? With my limited knowledge, i know energy companies go for RE to please the green activists and not on investment logic. It's like asking loan shark to put money in FD.
Last but not least, about half of the rights issue is for payment of bank borrowings. The articles claimed interest savings of RM22m, so i guess the loan interest around 4%? So now, since the FPSO returns are so high, what logic is there to repay bank borrowings with equity?
Being in business, i only repay loan when i can't utilise my equity for high returns or i have max my loan limits?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-02-08 17:16 | Report Abuse

Yinson is insolvent and technically bankrupt like Serba

Get out of this sinking ship

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-02-08 18:00 | Report Abuse

Yinson Debt Bomb has ballooned to over Rm7 Billions (more than twice that of Serba)

Now asking for "SOS" From shareholders' help by so much Rm1.22 Billions in a time when many have exhausted their investment capital and looking forlornly for some dividends instead

Looks like Yinson's troubles will be a burden to shareholders

What still want to ride this "dead" horse?

As they said, "If you know the horse you are riding on is dead the best course of action is to dismount'

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-08 19:10 | Report Abuse

My rationale comes from their business model. Hibiscus buys brownfield assets from shell and other customers who have gone through the majority of the extraction and sell it to hibiscus who believe that there is still more to dig and thus offer a bid for the assets. However being in the industry I think it is definitely more art than science on how much extraction can be done and selling at what price. Currently now at 90+ per barrel it would seem like a wonderful idea to buy, however if the oil price drops you will have the same case of sapura and armada which did speculative investments of the similar nature. Whether or not hibiscus paid a good price for the bid remains to be seen, however for the moment they seem to have struck black gold indeed.


>>>>>>>>>>

Windy1974 Hi Philip. Well written as usual and it shows how much time you have spent on your investment.
However, please enlighten me how is Hibiscus speculative stock?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-08 19:13 | Report Abuse

Yinson is definitely a bad investment. We should be looking at buying talamt and netx instead as they have huge assets! Those seem like a wonderful investment as calvintaneng is a top 30 shareholder in netx as I recall he claims.

What else do you know

>>>>>>>>
02/2022 5:16 PM

calvintaneng Yinson Debt Bomb has ballooned to over Rm7 Billions (more than twice that of Serba)

Posted by pokerpro88 > 2022-02-08 19:19 | Report Abuse

always enjoy your articles Philip! Good that you stand up to that clown who likes to spread negativity and hate

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2022-02-09 06:20 | Report Abuse

Very appreciated and thanks.