For full disclosure, I also bought TSH when it was RM1.10 because I felt that CPO prices were still rising nicely and Datuk Tan Aik Pen was buying but I sold at RM1.70 when the charts began to turn
I just rebought at RM1.37 as I noticed Datuk Tan is buying again. So I would also be happy if the market sees it my way but I am not ARROGANT enough to proclaim I will be right at the end of the road or blame others if I am wrong
You have clearly put targets of JTIASA at RM3.00 by year end and TSH at RMM3.00 by year end. These are clearly your words and prediction. So let's see, the market will decide and the good people if i3 will see
Most palm oil stocks are severely undervalued now due to whatever wrong reasons prices correction lately, so it's a matter of time palm oil stocks will burst like volcano eruption to historical price level with unprecedented historical high CPO 6,000-8,000 in Palm Oil Super Bull Run 2022-2023.
Furthermore, high food inflation & weaker ringgit will expedite market forces to buy palm oil stocks crazily...
Analysts repeatedly given wrong projection of CPO price and even though they have admitted their off track prediction and still continue to do it. It is hard not to believe they have bad intentions.
nice article @skoh888 ... i like ur2 suggestions, and im taking the first suggestion, and have already gone in, but on your point about IB, im sure u know that they issue 15 CWs and then someone will issue 1 PW... where is the fairness in this? Naturally it will be in their interest to push the mother share down, thats just their strategy, just like short selling, the strategy is clear, but you mentioned JTiasa has no CWs and yet not doing well.... thats a good point, how about hibiscus? any opinion?
Fed yields coming down means comodities going up again..in a few months u will see hyperinflation as US cant increase rates too much cos of too much debt.its nothing tp do with being cyclical its about excess money n fiat currency. In a few months we will know... No need argue lerr..
Cant blame ibs as this is something new... Just like they got gloves wrong as no ib person really understood wat we mrna vaccines.. They will just say sorry did not see it coming.. Lol.. Ur money ur call.. Unless u pay for advice which we dont.
Yes... oil palm trees will take like 7 years to mature to start bearing FFB.... but the Ukraine war won't last like 7 years.. so palm oil bull may just last 1 or 2... like gloves
Actually mkt is bearish & mkt is also skeptical of the commodity bulll run of;
1.CPO 2. Steel 3. Crude Oil 4. Crack spread 5. Aluminum, Tin and Copper
Thus mkt is taking a cautious approach to its sustainability mah!
If say CPO continue to perform at above Rm 5000 going fwd and the management has good corp governance & pays good div to reward shareholders, I m sure the Plantation share price will continue to go up mah!
Even if the CPO price come down to Rm 4000, I m sure the impact on plantation share price is minimal as currently it is not overvalue mah!
Currently with all food inflation in the world plus limited land available for future cultivation due to the environment concern, plantation valuation & its land will be valuable loh!
@raymond...thanks for your comment. I never liked Jtiasa and would never buy their shares as I am familiar with their hedging policies and previous excessive futures speculation. So even with high spot prices, they are not likely to enjoy the high prices or even lose money through bad short bets in the futures market
A sensible article with a practical piece of advice in conclusion.. Buy a portfolio of plantation stocks and hold for minimum 6 months if you think current high CPO prices can sustain. No conspiracy theories, no digging for treasure, no giving excuses of one kind or another for erroneous conjecture.
On market financial theory, Calvin is 100% correct. i3 gambler is totally wrong ! IB bank issues cw for the purpose to gamble with ikan billis. In gambling world ,the bankers must make sure they are on the advantage to make money from customers .So simple !!! Like that also don't know ! Pasar old lady selling kuih also know the secret !
Beltland, I don't even leave a comment here, why did you want to mention me here? skoh888 have also explained that "profit is derived more from the market making and spread activities". The Youtube video link that I put to Calvin post also explain IBs would not earn money that way. What to do with the Pasar old lady selling kuih? You look down on them? What an arrogant person you are. Telling what financial theory? You are joker?
what’s really obvious was when bankers has skin in gloves, they punt for gloves like no tomorrow. I still remember got one IB put market valuation of RM100B for topglove. But when comes to counters they have no skin in the game or worse, they issued SCW at low price, NEUTRAL or UNDERWEIGHT
@startofthebull....the definition of peak earnings DOES not mean that the companies are not profitable. They can still make super profits but may not see any profit growth. That's the definition of peak earnings.
For example based on yesterday's settlement price, the Dec2022 settled at RM5894 while the Feb2023 contract settled at RM5874. So If is no where near the spot price which is the Jun 2022 contract, currently trading at RM6710
However with so many variables in play especially the ongoing war in Russia, it is anybody's guess what the prices will be in 6 months! The futures just gives us an idea but it is not definitive
My way of valuation. I copy the market FCPO prices, AUG 2022 to FEB 2023, to my spreadsheet.
But for MAR 2023 and beyond, I do not take the market prices because sometime the volume is thin, and therefore not meaningful. What I do is to apply a formula so that from MAR 2023, the prices would converge to 10 years average price.
The latest 10 years average CPO price is RM2761, no need to adjust to inflation, as my calculation is also assume the production cost remain the same.
Now we can estimate the EPS for the next 5 years (20 quarters), Discount all the future EPSs back to today by a rate. Then the furthest quarterly EPS x 4, will be multiply with reasonable PE ratio, again discount it back to today. I prefer PE Ratio for: BKAWAN=12, KLK=20, SWKPLNT=12, TAANN=15, SIMEPLT=25
Sum up all the above and there I get the today's fair value for the companies.
New IPO: The onshore and offshore support services provider for the O&G industry, Steel Hawk Bhd aims to list on the Ace Market!
MQ Trader 5191 views | 5 d ago
0:17
New IPO: The largest mini-market player and a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd aims to list on the Main Market!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
calvintaneng
56,038 posts
Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-29 21:30 |
Post removed.Why?