Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 12:13 | Report Abuse

No one is going to hurt u then

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 12:18 | Report Abuse

HY's past year EPS

FY 2017 EPS RM3+
FY 2018 EPS Rm0.10+
FY 2019 EPS RM0.11+
FY 2020 EPS RM0.80+
FY 2021 EPS RM0.25+
FY 2022 (FH) EPS RM2.38+

VS

Div so far RM0.16

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 12:19 | Report Abuse

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=where%27s+the+beef+commercial

Posted by CharlesT > 2022-09-03 12:20 | Report Abuse

Can attend their AGM n ask where's the cash........

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 12:21 | Report Abuse

They will divert & never answer u loh!

Posted by CharlesT > 8 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Can attend their AGM n ask where's the cash........

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-03 12:23 | Report Abuse

Aiyoyo stockraider
For H1 petronm also make realised derivative loss of RM 437,873,000 and
Unrealised derivative loss of RM 166,799,000.

But still managed to acheive record PBT of RM 384,424,000
Operating profit before changes in working capital of RM 637,472,000

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-03 12:32 | Report Abuse

I am in Petronm and HRC because of a simple reason crack spread had increased from a poor single digit in 2021 to double digit of USD 10+ in Jan and peak at USD 40+ in end June 2022.
If you have a very sudden increase in H1 and H2 some correction it will still be fine for refinery to earn a record profit.

Even if sudden refining margin collapse to negative their refining margin hedge done during H1 for H2 period will ensured H2 hedged amt of margin

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-03 12:34 | Report Abuse

CharleaT,
Just read the cashflow statement to know where they spend the money.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 12:34 | Report Abuse

Correctloh....culmulative eps of Rm 6.64 from 2017 to 2022 v div Rm 0.16 loh!

Thus just earnings from 2017 to 2022 net off dividend is Rm 6.54 per share mah!
This exclude its existing nta of Rm 3.36 per share in 31-12-2016
If u include this 2016 figure.....it will be Rm 9.9 per share loh!

The current NTA of Hengyuan per share is only rm 5.25 per share mah!
Compare to Rm 9.90 per share above loh!

That means Rm 9.90 minus Rm 5.25 per share = Rm 4.65 per share in which a big part of this is due to suspect siphoning from derivative in the form of derivative losses loh!

Posted by CharlesT > 4 minutes ago | Report Abuse

HY's past year EPS

FY 2017 EPS RM3+
FY 2018 EPS Rm0.10+
FY 2019 EPS RM0.11+
FY 2020 EPS RM0.80+
FY 2021 EPS RM0.25+
FY 2022 (FH) EPS RM2.38+

VS

Div so far RM0.16

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 12:41 | Report Abuse

Petron reported a positive position after flowing thru its hedging losses to the P&L top line, this should be what hedging operation should be all about by smoothing out its profitability but not in hengyuan case with losses run into billions ?

But hengyuan do not loh! It keep the hedging loss as no impact to EPS loh!

If we standardised the treatment like Petron....Hengyuan will be reporting huge losses loh!

Rightfully Hedging losses should flow thru P&L mah!

Thus Hengyuan performance appear very bad compare to Petron loh!

The most danger question is the hedging instrument is completely unrelated to business hedging but it is a device instrument to siphon money from hengyuan loh!

The red flags can be seen by;

1. Many qtr of hedging losses loh!
2. Very suspicious long dated of the hedging instrument loh!
3. Extremely large hedging value has been contracted mah!
4. Extremely Huge hedging losses incurred todate loh!

If the above suspicion is proven true.....then hengyuan will eventually be worthless just like Serba loh!

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-03 12:50 | Report Abuse

Stockraider know how much Capex is needed to upgrade refinery to produce:
EURO 4M Petrol
EURO 5 DIESEL

Both Petron and HRC already done the Capex for upgrading and this year onward will have more cash for dividend.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 12:53 | Report Abuse

The hedging losses may not reverse loh!

Bcos the instrument use is term as hedging....but it could be speculative if use wrongly instead of hedging mah!

The above scenario is bad....it could even be even worse....if it is fake siphoning instrument loh!

No one will know loh....bcos the disclosure is opaque....they just disclose as hedging losses...why loss & how loss & how big is the position & how long is unanswered.........unless a full forensic audit is done on this loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 12:56 | Report Abuse

Yes if this is spend on capex....this will appear in the balance sheet & the nta per share will not disappear from Rm 9.90 per share to Rm 5.25 per share now mah!

It is likely disappear due to hedging losses loh!

Posted by Sslee > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Stockraider know how much Capex is needed to upgrade refinery to produce:
EURO 4M Petrol
EURO 5 DIESEL

Both Petron and HRC already done the Capex for upgrading and this year onward will have more cash for dividend.

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 12:56 | Report Abuse

ADDITIONAL EXPLANATION BY PROBABILITY:

The reason why HY shows large unrealized loss on Cost of hedging reserve (COHR) is because it has around 18 million barrels of refined products, e.g Gasoline crack spread that is hedged for next 24 months at 12.7 USD/brl margin.


This is the Refining Margin Swap Contract (RMSC) shown as USD 227 million (USD 12.7 crack x 18 million barrels hedged).

As per accounting rules, this hedged contract (RMSC) has to show the opportunity lost / gained presuming the current crack spread of these refined products at the end of reporting Q2 22' (30 June) persist for the next 12 months.

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR) , loss / gain: (A-M) x V

A = hedged crack spread value, 12.7 USD/brl
V = barrels volume of refined products hedged, 18 million
M = Market pricing of the hedged refined product at end of reporting period (mark to market)

Since at the end of June 22', the avg crack spread of the refined products, e.g gasoline at 31.6 USD/brl, the opportunity lost for the period of hedging is

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 31.6) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= - 338 million USD or MYR 1,490,267,000

The above is what reported as (Asset 261,065,000 - Liabilities 1,751,332,000)

Out of the above a portion will go into 'Other comprehensive
(expense)/income' reported as Cost of hedging reserve.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 12:57 | Report Abuse

Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to its usual average of 5.7 USD/brl (currently its about 4.5 USD/brl)

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 5.7) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= 90 million USD or gain of MYR 395,000,000

When its a loss, COHR only shows the 'greater opportunity lost' compared to smaller opportunity gained by hedging - by locking down the margin.

When its a gain, COHR only shows the 'benefit of opportunity locked' compared to if you had not locked the opportunity available earlier.

As such, we can see why the above is not reported in P&L statement. It really does not matter - as what Rabbit2 said it becomes zero on maturity.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 12:59 | Report Abuse

The fear is still high risk of siphoning money loh!

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 13:36 | Report Abuse

HY refinery margin update - 2/09/22 (DIESEL CRACK BLASTED ABOVE 50$/brl!)
...........

Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 50.36/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 38.40/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (4.07 + 3.71) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7.77/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 50.4 ) + (0.07 x 38.40) + (0.35 x 7.77)+ (0.12 x 7.77)
= 23.18 + 2.70 + 2.72 + 0.93
= US $ 29.5 / brl
.................

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $29.5/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.404 Billion MYR
...................

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 15:52 | Report Abuse

Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to ZERO (currently its about 7.8 USD/brl)

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 0) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= 228 million USD or gain of MYR 1,000,005,000

GAIN of 1 BILLION on Cost of hedging reserve in Q2

But those who understand the above, they know it does not matter and that for gasoline their earnings is always going to be at 12.7 USD/brl.....

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 15:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 16:13 | Report Abuse

CharlesT > 5 hours ago | Report Abuse

As a general rule, apply a 90% discount on all the China Boss's Cos.

Second, spend yr time to study the contents of the Author n try to understand n verify so.

Third, check the Author's track records.....I have seen Sifu Probability's earlier analysis in Heng Yuan 1 (2017), Lionind (Steel Party in 2018) ,I think Dayang as well (2019).....

While I cant deny his facts n figures fm his previous posts sometimes do look convincing, but the ending is all the same.

See if we shall see a different ending this round.

Last but not least, back to my first sentence (As a general rule, apply a 90% discount on all the China Boss's Cos), it's oredi being proven 100% correct in Bursa for the past 10 years.

Good luck in HY.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 16:14 | Report Abuse

COHR gain of 390 million from loss of 1.1 billion will cause the NTA to jump by RM5 and if you add that to EPS of RM2, you get RM 7

that means by end of Q3, NTA is above RM12...WTF!

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-03 16:47 | Report Abuse

Let wait for Q3 result to speak for themselve and then let Q4 result to speak for themselve again.

refining profit is pretty std.
can U create more profits by simply shouting high crack spread?

ONLY driver to HUGE profits due to its super huge QR revenue.

I expect engineer to come up with better conclusion. And know how supply and demand equilibrium shift will make or break you.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-03 17:08 | Report Abuse

June 22 (Reuters) - Drivers around the world are feeling pain at the pump with fuel prices soaring, and costs are surging for heating buildings, power generation and industrial production.

Prices were already elevated before Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. But since mid-March, fuel costs have surged while crude prices are up only modestly. Much of the reason is a lack of adequate refining capacity to process crude into gasoline and diesel to meet high global demand.

HOW MUCH CAN THE WORLD REFINERIES PRODUCE DAILY?
Overall, there is enough capacity to refine about 100 million barrels of oil a day, according to the International Energy Agency, but about 20% of that capacity is not useable. Much of that unuseable capacity is in Latin America and other places where there is a lack of investment. That leaves somewhere around 82-83 million bpd in projected capacity.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

HOW MANY REFINERIES HAVE CLOSED?
The refining industry estimates that the world lost a total of 3.3 million barrels of daily refining capacity since the start of 2020. About a third of these losses occurred in the United States, with the rest in Russia, China, and Europe. Fuel demand crashed early in the pandemic when lockdowns and remote work were widespread. Before that, refining capacity had not declined in any year for at least three decades.

WILL REFINING PICK UP?
Global refining capacity is set to expand by 1 million bpd per day in 2022 and 1.6 million bpd in 2023.

HOW MUCH HAS REFINING DECLINED SINCE BEFORE THE PANDEMIC?
In April, 78 million barrels were processed daily, down sharply from the pre-pandemic average of 82.1 million bpd. The IEA expects refining to rebound during the summer to 81.9 million bpd as Chinese refiners come back online.

WHERE IS MOST REFINING CAPACITY OFFLINE, AND WHY?
The United States, China, Russia and Europe are all operating refineries at lower capacity than before the pandemic. U.S. refiners shut nearly one million bpd of capacity since 2019 for various reasons.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-03 17:09 | Report Abuse

By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and staff writer

Published Sep. 3, 2022 2:40 AM WIT | Updated Sep. 3, 2022 11:33 AM WIT

Tropical Storm Danielle and other areas of concern in the Atlantic




The first hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season took shape as Danielle -- the fourth named storm of the year -- strengthened on Friday, ending a historically tranquil stretch across the basin and kicking off what is expected to be a bustling period of tropical activity in the weeks to come.

AccuWeather meteorologists issued an update to the seasonal forecast on Sept. 2, predicting what they expect to take place over the nearly three months remaining until hurricane season officially winds down on Nov. 30. They are forecasting a total of 12 to 16 named tropical systems in the Atlantic hurricane basin when the final tally is in this season, including five to seven hurricanes, two or three of which may strengthen into major hurricanes (Category 3 strength with winds of 111 mph or higher) and three or four direct impacts to the United States.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-03 17:14 | Report Abuse

Know why diesel crack spread is much higher than petrol?

SINGAPORE MOGAS 92 UNLEADED (PLATTS) BRENT CRACK SPREAD FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)NYMEX
4.066
D
USD
+3.277
(+415.34%)

LOW SULPHUR GASOIL CRACK SPREAD (1000MT) FINANCIAL FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)NYMEX
50.364
D
USD
+3.867
(+8.32%)

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-03 17:18 | Report Abuse

So as chemist or engineer do you agreed with the statement you can blend petrol into diesel and sell it as diesel?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-09-03 17:22 | Report Abuse

Probability and Sslee presented all the facts , figures and published news on HY/refining business. Whereas many others are just making noises……..

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-09-03 17:27 | Report Abuse

Facts and figures from probability and Sslee are verifiable . Whereas, many others put up assumptions only . There are differences.

Posted by emsvsi > 2022-09-03 18:38 | Report Abuse

DEAR KOON
DOES THIS MEAN YOU ARE NOW BUYING HENGYUAN

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 19:03 | Report Abuse

sslee done it again...

What a beautiful discovery! thanks sslee



Posted by Sslee > Sep 3, 2022 6:17 PM | Report Abuse

If you look into HRC quarterly report.
On 31/12/19. NAPS is RM 6.7045.
Q1 end 31/03/20 EPS negative 41.37 cents but NAPS is now RM 7.4418

Posted by Sslee > Sep 3, 2022 6:32 PM | Report Abuse

You can check what is the mogas92 crack spread on 31/03/2020.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-09-03 19:03 | Report Abuse

Since June 2022, a group of Agents coordinated malicious attacks on HY with ulterior motives. The Agents have been spamming days and nights with all sorts of disinformation, half truth stories and baseless assumptions , ultimately driving good stock to far lower that its fair value.

The Agents are capitalizing on the fragile market sentiment and serious lack of market liquidity to drive away whatever little buying interest and caused fearful and weaker retailers to dump their shares at huge discounts. The modus operandi of the agents is very obvious, trade manipulations is obvious.

Just beware that the Agents are not angels to safeguard small and retail investors’ interest. They are instead preying on unsuspecting retailers.

The Agents and the bosses behind are now collecting cheap shares again.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-03 19:05 | Report Abuse

Everyone can check for themselve what is the commodities price of crude oil and refining finished products daily.

But for simplicity you just need to monitor the petrol , diesel and jet fuel crack spread and know your refinery using what crude and produce what refining finished products.

This information are all public available information.

I am in Petronm and HRC because of refining margin is now at very good high level compare to history poor single digit figure.

I will run fast fast if crude oil shot to USD 150 and refining margin drop to poor single digit.

What the point of high revenue if your refining margin is poor. High crude will make your working capital very high.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 00:30 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 09:05 | Report Abuse

Why General Raider says Sifu Sslee analysis on Hengyuan is dangerous flawed ?

1. Looking at the balance sheet HRC hedging losses as at 30-6-2022 amounted to rm Rm 1,329M of this sum of losses Rm 1189m or 90% are contributed by just 6 mths of operation result for the latest 30-6-2022 Financial result loh!

2. HRC derivative outstanding liabilities todate is Rm 1,781M whereas is derivative assets is Rm 261m, meaning net derivative negative exposure is Rm 1,520M.....meaning the counter party should be able received payment of Rm 1,520M from Hengyuan, it is just like your share margin losses loh!

3. Then why counterparty did not ask for margin call , since HRC has a huge negative equity of Rm 1520M leh ? Yes the counter party did ask for margin top up and hengyuan already paid, this can be seen from other receivable & prepayment payout increases by Rm 1,542M for the 6 mths mah!

In otherwords, Hengyuan 6 mths operating cashflow b4 working capital changes should be Rm 939m, after less Rm 1542M derivative top up amounting to negative cashflow of Rm 603M mah!

The route to potential financial collapse of Hengyuan, are written all there in the Derivative mah!

Do not get into this trap loh! Despite Hengyuan generated record positive operation cash flow of Rm 939m, its negative cashflow from derivative losses is rm 1,542m ( which already payout as other prepayment} thus HRC negative cashflow is Rm 603M.

Most importantly, Hengyuan borrowing & derivative liabilities had ballooned to Rm 3285M from just Rm 705m as at 31-12-2021 which a staggering increase of Rm 2580M, just within 6 mths and of this sum Rm 1542M is due to margin top up of derivative losses in the form of prepayment mah!

Lu tau boh ? The rot of Hengyuan has intensified alot loh!
Be very careful mah!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 09:09 | Report Abuse

All these Hengyuan info Raider presented is supported by fact & figures mah!

U can check it for yourself, since Raider had given direction where to Check Mah!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-09-04 09:43 | Report Abuse

The greatest form of ignorance is trying to look at the figures without understanding how it was captured as per accounting standard requirement and interpret according to their fancy as facts.

The greatest form of fxxl/stupxxity is accepting their above facts as true.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 12:12 | Report Abuse

The reasons why Raider need to uncovered the hidden truth about hengyuan bcos;

1. Innocent party like Ahfah son (Now gainfully employ as Technology System Analyst} has started to be interested of Hengyuan bcos of the huge EPS of Rm 2.22 reported in Q2 mah!
Just imagine a learned person like Ahfah son started to be greedy & interested n willing to accept in gambling on bad corporate governance stock like Hengyuan, what about the rest of laymen down the road leh ?
Alot of damage to their financial health will be coming to these people loh!

2. Also Raider trying hard to save Sifu SSLEE from damaging his prestigious reputation by acting as a fool in promoting Hengyuan loh....!
U see raider has soft spot for SSLEE, he is really kind gentleman & he is trying to do great services to the Society loh!
However Hengyuan which its magic reporting & highly complicated manipulative high finance is very complicated for Sifu SSLEE (general financial knowledge) to comprehend, in addition he has been mislead by people like Probability with his droves of fake duplicated IDS followers & supporters painting a fine picture on HRC, despite its core are roting loh!

It is a relieve for General Raider to hear Sifu SSLEE has a very small exposure on Hengyuan, thus Raider suggest he completely dispose it & switch quickly to Petron for better night sleep loh!

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 16:03 | Report Abuse

Just want to inform all readers,

For HY refinery its actually good if the gasoline margin stays low, as the lower it is the higher the Diesel & Jet fuel crack will go since refinery try to compensate their loss in gasoline with higher margins on other refined products.

Further, this will discourage simple refiners who produce mainly gasoline and fuel oil from increasing output and even shutting down their operation - reducing further diesel availability on the market.

HY which had hedged significant amount of gasoline (at about 20% of their sales volume - basically all their gasoline yield ) will be the greatest beneficiary among all regional refineries.

All the information are there, research carefully to gain an edge to make fantastic investment decision of a lifetime.
Good luck..