Posted by Plantermen > 2024-03-08 09:28 | Report Abuse

The re ratings will come in once the DC earnings kick in and materialised. Initial target price will revised upwards. YTLP earnings are 80% generated by their foreign business operations which translate into FX gain vs our MYR

Posted by jenson68 > 2024-03-08 09:32 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the insight @ OTB!
Continue hold tight & keep for long term, hehe

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-03-08 09:37 | Report Abuse

Good summary, MR. OTB.

Agreed that AI data centre business will drive YTL Power to new highs in next 2 years.

Posted by OTB > 2024-03-08 10:42 | Report Abuse

The target price is derived from the EPS. I use a PER=15.
If the EPS for FY 2024 is higher than 0.42, I will revise up the target price using a PER=15.
Likewise, I will revise down the target price if the EPS is < 0.42.
I will monitor the earning of YTLPower very closely and update it accordingly.
I write this article with all good fundamental facts and also known facts available to public.
I write this article for easy reference.
Thank you.

Posted by Invest_888 > 2024-03-08 11:01 | Report Abuse

Once AI data centre contributes profit to YTLP, the share price will fly higher and higher.

Posted by Jilohhuat > 2024-03-08 12:15 | Report Abuse

Thank you Mr OTB , we do appreciate your kind input. You will get good karma.

Posted by OTB > 2024-03-08 17:12 | Report Abuse

Thank you for your kind words.
I also believe in karma.
Good deeds means good karma.

I share information here with good deeds.
According to my religion, I will be very bless.
I believe so because I make a fortune from YTLPower in 2023/4.
I sailang YTLPower at 1.10.
God bless me always.
Thank you.

Posted by MrFox > 2024-03-08 17:22 | Report Abuse

that is y i didnt panick ! to me the sharp drop in price today is just a passing storm!!!!

Posted by MrFox > 2024-03-08 17:32 | Report Abuse

certainly YTLP knows! as YTLP is REAL!!!!!
haha

Posted by Mabel > 2024-03-09 13:13 | Report Abuse

Good summary, MR. OTB.

Thank you so much for sharing...

With Power Cum Responsibility...

To Our Success !

Meow

Posted by sayyouloveme > 2024-03-12 14:25 | Report Abuse

Thanks for insights. I am new to collect YTLP. hopefully i am not too late.

Posted by OTB > 2024-03-12 17:11 | Report Abuse

Posted by cktay > 16 hours ago | Report Abuse

https://www.businesstoday.com.my/2024/03/11/ipp-ytlps-potential-value-on-dc-investments-yet-to-be-fully-priced-in-cgs-reiterates-add/

Posted by OTB > 2024-03-12 17:12 | Report Abuse

Posted by cktay > 16 hours ago | Report Abuse

IPP YTLP’s Potential Value On DC Investments Yet To Be Fully Priced In, CGS Reiterates Add
CGA reiterates Add on YTLP with an unchanged SOP-based TP of RM4.50

Posted by OTB > 2024-03-15 22:21 | Report Abuse

Hope that the share price of YTLPower will cross 3.71 next week to confirm a trend reversal.
Once 3.71 is crossed convincingly, stochastic, daily MACD, Parabolic SAR and Force index will show buy signals to confirm the long correction mode is over.
This correction is quite long, it lasted > 1.5 months.
The uptrend will start after 3.71 is crossed convincingly.
Good luck.
Thank you.

Posted by OTB > 2024-03-18 08:28 | Report Abuse

Posted by HuatRex1314 > 21 hours ago | Report Abuse
Based on my 20 years of TA analysis, ytlp will break above 3.70 very soon. Let's see.
------------------------
Looking at the closing price at 4.50 pm, many buyers appeared and absorbed many big selling orders.
The volume transacted at 4.50 pm is around 34 million shares at 3.68.
I believe your prediction is excellent, hope that the share price of YTLPower will cross 3.71 next week.
Good luck.
Thank you.

Posted by OTB > 2024-03-18 10:24 | Report Abuse

Posted by HuatRex1314 > 21 hours ago | Report Abuse
Based on my 20 years of TA analysis, ytlp will break above 3.70 very soon. Let's see.
------------------------
Looking at the closing price at 4.50 pm, many buyers appeared and absorbed many big selling orders.
The volume transacted at 4.50 pm is around 34 million shares at 3.68.
I believe your prediction is excellent, hope that the share price of YTLPower will cross 3.71 next week.
Good luck.
Thank you.
-------------------------------
I hope that the share price of YTLPower will cross 3.71 to confirm a trend reversal.
It is even better if the share price can cross 3.79 convincingly because 3.79 is the price level of 20-day EMA.
Once 3.71 is crossed convincingly, stochastic, daily MACD, Parabolic SAR and Force index will show buy signals to confirm the long correction mode is over.
This correction is quite long, it lasted > 1.5 months.
The uptrend will start after 3.71 is crossed convincingly.
Looking at the monthly chart, the present correction is a Second wave down. Once the Third Wave up starts, the share price movement will be very fierce. I believe the share price of YTLPower will move up north very fast. I also believe the target price of YTLPower in 2024 will be very high.
My 2 cents comment based on TA.
Thank you.

Posted by OTB > 2024-03-20 10:27 | Report Abuse

Posted by dragon328 > 16 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Hong Leong analyst Daniel Wong gave a very good update report on YTL Power this morning, reiterating BUY call with a tp of RM5.55.

After getting a management update, he commented on the latest AI venture development: "The mew setup YTL AI Cloud, in deploying and managing NVIDIA's latest Grace Blackwell-powered DGX Cloud (adopting GB200 GPUs), indicates NVIDIA's strong support of YTLPI's digital venture."

On Wessex Waters, he mentioned that the announced 11-12% average tariff hike for wholesale and 12-14% tariff hike for household effective Apr 2024 will revert Wessex into black in 4QFY2024 and a full year turnaround in FY25. It is also estimated of a further 15% increment in average tariff based on upcoming AMP8 (2025-2030) proposal for higher GBP3.5 billion capex spending (vs. GBP1.5bn in AMP7) and higher allowable real return (WACC based on CPIH) of 4.39% (vs 2.96% in AMP7). Hence he expects an even stronger results from FY26 onwards with accelerating RCV asset size (GBP4.2bn as at end-2023).

On PowerSeraya, he stated that Singapore's retail electricity prices continued to trend higher for the past few months (with actual data from major electricity retailers) despite the drop in average wholesale USEP. He said the management had guided that 75-80% of PowerSeraya business is driven by retail segment with another 10-15% by SP Group (i.e. vesting contracts with fixed margin). Hence the exposure to the wholesale USEP segment is just 5-10%.

"While YTLP does not have direct peers, we are still able to relate YTLP's earnings to Keppel, Sembcorb Industry and First Pacific with regards to the Singapore utilities sector. Bloomberg concensus has been estimating increasing earnings for Keppel, Sembcorp and First Pacific for FY12/24-26, contrary to YTLP's concensus estimating deteriorating earnings profile for FY06/24-26. We believe the concensus estimates is mainly due to concensus' lack of understanding of Singapore's utilities structure and consequently, earnings sustainability of YTLP."

This clearly supports my earlier argument that PowerSeraya's earnings will sustain into 2026 as there will be no new capacity supply in Singapore. Local analysts' projection of substantially lower earnings for PowerSeraya in FY06/24-26 is due to the lack of understanding of the Singapore electricity market and structure. They have obviously over-played the "normalisation" of PowerSeraya earnings.

Posted by OTB > 2024-03-20 10:28 | Report Abuse

Posted by dragon328 > 13 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Hong Leong analyst has made a non-biased and professional assessment of the earnings prospect of YTLP, projecting a net profit of RM3.327b (EPS of 41.1 sen) for FY24, RM3.794b (EPS of 46.8 sen) for FY25 and RM3.896b (EPS of 48.1 sen) for FY26.

These are very close to what I have projected earlier - EPS of 40-42 sen for FY24 and 45+ sen for FY25 incorporating only 6 months (Jan-Jun 25) of contribution from AI data centre.

Posted by OTB > 2024-03-20 22:11 | Report Abuse

Posted by cgtan2020 > 19 minutes ago | Report Abuse

@dragon328 CoreWeave will have about 45,000 GPU (NVIDIA HGX H100) in 2024, with each GPU rent @ USD4.76 per hour. If 90% of the capacities is on rent, it will generate about USD1.688Billion of revenue in 2024. How do you think YTL AI DC of 100MW will be like when all is deployed? Conservative guess will do.
-------------------------
Sorry !!
I try my method to calculate the EPS based on the aforesaid information.
Revenue = USD 1.688 Billion = RM 7.934 Billion (1 USD = RM 4.70)
EBITDA margin 50% = RM 3.967 Billion
PAT = 2.856 Billion (Assuming 28% tax)
NOSI = 8.158 Billion
Additional EPS = 0.35 in FY 2024
EPS from normal operations = 0.42
Total EPS = 0.77
If PER = 10, Target Price = 7.70
If PER = 15, Target Price = 11.55
Thank you.

Posted by Permutation > 2024-03-20 23:22 | Report Abuse

Looks like one should invest 100% in this counter?

Posted by CaoCao > 2024-03-20 23:33 | Report Abuse

This is an evil statement!!! Promote stock also has a limit. Never teach people all in !!!

Posted by Permutation > 10 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Looks like one should invest 100% in this counter?

Posted by Permutation > 2024-03-22 09:32 | Report Abuse

Evil Statement? hardly. Know your risk profile when investing. Want zero risk? put all in FD.
Want calculated risk ? YTLP. Today [ 22.3.2024] price RM3.90 . My 12 months TP RM6. ; 24 months TP RM7.50
Too far fetch? Dont buy. No one force you to buy. Look before you leap, think before you buy !

“Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to rank with those timid spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat.”