Posted by micsoh > 2016-10-12 20:00 | Report Abuse

the buying queue never subside, good sign.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-10-12 20:13 | Report Abuse

Posted by kai8994 > Oct 12, 2016 12:09 PM | Report Abuse

What makes RGB attractive now is its ability to generate decent Free Cash Flow. It had alrdy generate RM29m in first half of FY2016.

FCF for FY2013 - FY2015 were ranging from RM28m - RM30m a year, >10% cash yield for the past 3 years.

Assuming average FCF is RM28m a year, 3% growth rate, 12% discount rate, and half of the current cash balance as excess cash - RM35m, RGB's intrinsic value (using DCF valuation) is about RM0.27.

Kai, your assumption a bit conservative.....

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-10-12 20:15 | Report Abuse

My guess is 40mil to 50mil cash flows. If expansion in other regions ok, should be 60mil or more

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-10-12 20:17 | Report Abuse

Not sue what tp comb gave?

Posted by excelyou > 2016-10-12 22:32 | Report Abuse

Not easy to find a counter with free cash of estimated at least RM100 million by end of the year. Accumulate more today.

Posted by Hunter2016 > 2016-10-13 16:55 | Report Abuse

Forming double top?

Posted by sleepy123 > 2016-10-13 17:03 | Report Abuse

@Hunter2016, what is double top?

Posted by Hunter2016 > 2016-10-13 17:26 | Report Abuse

you go sleep awhile, then you will learn it from your dream. or else, google it.

Posted by Mak David > 2016-10-13 20:42 | Report Abuse

Refer to 1yr chart it may go back to 0.17 and fly again......?

Posted by VenFx > 2016-10-14 23:32 | Report Abuse

RGB a far solid bet than Bornoil.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-10-15 00:25 | Report Abuse

Both also good.

Posted by maomaochong > 2016-10-15 07:42 | Report Abuse

paperplane is absolutely right :)

Posted by very_goat > 2016-10-15 11:56 | Report Abuse

火树银花

RGB 0037

（分享分享投资功课而已，不是叫你买卖。）

公司的报道相当多，不少的投资部落客也有详细的介绍这家公司的前景和分析。只要肯搜一搜，资料多，报导也多。（新闻的报导就不复述了。

公司的前身称为“梦城机构”，总部设在槟城。

这家公司的业务很简单，制造和维修老虎机（赌博机是也） 。

RGB有两个主要的业务：
（1）Sales&Marketing，简称（SSM）销售和市场营销
（2）Technical Support&Management，简称（TSM）技术支持和管理。

这是一家成长的小型公司。

2011年是转折点，从2012年开始，公司的盈利逐步提升。至于2016年能不能超越去年2015年的业绩，就看下来的两个季度了。从公司近期的表现应该不会低于2014 年的表现。但是，如果要达到比去年2015的盈利更上一层，会有一定的难度。姑且拭目以待。

上表显示公司内部的流动资产和流动债务组合情况。2013之前，流动资产和流动债务相差不远。但是，自2014年开始，公司的流动资产增加，流动债务减少，将两者之间的差距大幅度拉开。表示公司的资产组合往好的方面发展。公司对于债务的抗压能力越来越好。

将两者之间的关系转化为流动比例，就可以看得更加清楚：

年份 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 （半年）
流动比例 0.62 1.10 1.25 1.20 1.41 2.01 3.65

公司的流动比率不断加强，这是好现象。从2010 年的每1元债务，只有62仙的流动资产支撑，来到2015年的每1元债务，有2.01元短期流动资产支撑，直接跳上最新的每1元债务，有3.65元的资产支撑。说明公司的素质在加强，公司的架构稳定，债务不会对公司造成负担或威胁，投资安全度增加。

进一步以公司的整体财务架构来分析：

上图可以看到，公司的债务比例不断减少。公司的资产不断增加。
主要的原因是公司努力偿还债务，所以公司的资产素质不断的改善。

年份
总资产，总债务，资产比率

2010
307677，214797，1.43

2011
249,932，185,603，1.35

2012
230,556，162,033，1.42

2013
217,319，127,763，1.70

2014
267,814，147,413，1.82

2015
301,920，105,539，2.86

2016
278,333，83,888，3.32（2016年为半年的资产负债表）

从上表，可以看到公司的财务架构越来越稳定和安全。比2015年的每1元债务由2.86元的资产支撑，到2016半年的每1元债务，有3.32元资产支撑。表示公司财务稳定，越来越安全，不会突然一夜之间倒闭。

为什么公司能够很快的把债务解决，从而达到改善公司的素质？

这个当然跟公司的现金流有重大的关系。因为这家公司的现金流非常好，稳健、充沛。（可惜的是，公司的流通股数太多了，每股所得太稀了。）

以现金流的角度来看，公司的现金流非常稳健，可以说是非常充沛。 为何跟公司的账面盈利，却显得公司的盈利不是很好，盈利和现金流的相差这么大呢？

最主要的原因是，公司的 “折旧” 这个的数额相当大，每年把公司的2～4千万之间的营运资金隐藏起来。投资人得到了盈利的数据后，还必须参考现金流表，才能还原真相，把公司的这笔资金找出来。理解公司的整体运作和全貌。如果单单参考了盈利和每股盈利，就对公司下判断，恐怕会有所偏差。

如果将这笔列为折旧的资金，除与市场上流通的 1,330,524,000股，每股得 1.5仙至 3.0仙 ( RM 0.015 ~ RM 0.03 ) 。如果这笔数额加入每股盈利，可以直接让公司的每股盈利飙涨。

公司将这笔资金列为折旧，当然有公司的看法和考量。会计也有会计的准则和标准需要遵守。我们投资人挖出这一点，为的是让自己的对事情的理解更为全面和深入。在做出投资判断时，考虑的范围也更为周到。

年份
营运活动，投资活动，融资活动

2010
3051，-16048，1669

2011
54,175，-14965，-28849

2012
50,106，-30,133，-16,687

2013
48,090，-33,325，-18,052

2014
48,606，-22,413，-11,209

2015
50,929，-19,590，-15,529

2016
40,149，-7406，-30,838

进一步来看，现金流表，可以看到的是公司自2011年开始，公司的现金流稳定在5千万左右。

意思是，公司每年从生意中，创造了5千万的资金流入，可以让公司进行各个项目支配。

可以看到，公司在2011至2013年间，大部分的资金用在扩充业务（红线比青色线更低）。从2014年开始公司则加强偿还债务（融资活动现金流开支），而投资活动近年来则放缓了许多（红线上扬，青线夏下滑）。

在进行扩充业务和偿还债务同时，公司的现金却节节增加。请看下图：

这表示说，公司的资金充沛，不但有盈余，未来还有更大的能力可以回馈股东（股息派发增加）。

至于公司如何回馈股东，就看管理层的意向了。

如果说，要找出公司的价值在哪里，先看公司目前握有什么资产，有哪一些看得到的价值（例如现金啦、厂房机器、生产线、应收帐等等）。然后，在看公司的获利能力，竞争能力以及未来的成长、方向了……

http://www.investalks.com/forum/ ... age%3D1&page=94

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-10-16 01:59 | Report Abuse

Good article from investalks

Posted by moneyinc > 2016-10-16 18:33 | Report Abuse

i'm in the boat now, wait to collect profit~

Posted by valuelurker > 2016-10-16 20:02 | Report Abuse

foreign currency/export play

Posted by ooihk899 > 2016-10-16 21:34 | Report Abuse

sleepy1233 tenang saja, if the Q result good, price will fly.

Posted by buyvalue > 2016-10-17 00:04 | Report Abuse

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/801015/124-online-gaming-licenses-revoked

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-10-17 00:21 | Report Abuse

Good news? Now can't gamble online, need go into casino gamble, so good for rgb

Posted by kai8994 > 2016-10-17 10:25 | Report Abuse

Could be as RGB deal with slot machines placed in casino. Do note that the government has their shares at many of the casinos, will they disturb the casinos also?

That's the 'risk' one has to figure out before buying into RGB's growth story :)

Posted by excelyou > 2016-10-17 11:31 | Report Abuse

USD settled above 4.20 lately, bullish USD against RM will benefit RGB as at 30 Sept 2016.

Posted by excelyou > 2016-10-17 11:39 | Report Abuse

Performance highlight
-During the financial period under review, the Group has achieved double digit improvement for both Net Revenue (+29%) and Net
Profit Before Tax (+26%) as compared to 1H2015

-The Group will continue capturing business opportunities of key products under our SSM division portfolio, and to further improve
performance of concession machines and look for possible ways to reduce TSM operating cost

-The business performance is as planned and set on the right track, the management is confident to achieve better performance and
yield from both SSM and TSM division in Year 2016

Posted by nono118 > 2016-10-17 12:37 | Report Abuse

also so many good articles. if one article, price up 2 sen, it should be at 0.29.

Posted by Yunqi > 2016-10-17 14:49 | Report Abuse

请问有谁能说说菲律宾的政局会不会影响RGB在那里的生意？

Posted by ooihk899 > 2016-10-17 15:28 | Report Abuse

Looks like Nepal maybe the next growth area for RGB

Posted by maninblack888888 > 2016-10-17 15:37 | Report Abuse

shark eating the stock... cross over 20cents anytime.

Posted by nono118 > 2016-10-17 18:43 | Report Abuse

another write-up. so now 0.31

Posted by ooihk899 > 2016-10-18 11:29 | Report Abuse

Looks like going to break above .2 this round.

Posted by ltw1123 > 2016-10-18 11:30 | Report Abuse

It has touched the psychological point of 0.20 today! Good sign...

Posted by moneyinc > 2016-10-18 12:41 | Report Abuse

good sign!

Posted by leon312214 > 2016-10-18 14:06 | Report Abuse

big blocking in 0.2, if clear, then should be good

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-10-18 14:09 | Report Abuse

so fast, lets see if 0.20 can be broken

Posted by Yunqi > 2016-10-18 14:43 | Report Abuse

Congratulations everybody!

Posted by leon312214 > 2016-10-18 14:44 | Report Abuse

finally the greatest wall 0.2 is broke

Posted by skyz > 2016-10-18 14:51 | Report Abuse

sleepy123, u working for syndicates ah? nvr see u comment other forum geh? always also spam here

Posted by blacksnake > 2016-10-18 14:52 | Report Abuse

broken......

Posted by kentg03 > 2016-10-18 15:07 | Report Abuse

0.2 wall come again. big road block.

Posted by Ckk2266 > 2016-10-18 16:17 | Report Abuse

Aim The Bull

Posted by callmehorny > 2016-10-18 17:07 | Report Abuse

look forward to see it at 0.220

Posted by biba > 2016-10-18 17:09 | Report Abuse

gamble up ...buy up...

Posted by Yunqi > 2016-10-18 18:49 | Report Abuse

Still can't break 0.20

Posted by VenFx > 2016-10-18 19:13 | Report Abuse

Dudu 大, really stir RGB up .

Posted by dudu > 2016-10-18 20:50 | Report Abuse

Brother VenFx , 见笑了。Still early to judge. If RGB can stay above 0.20, than only i can say it is at the up trend wave. If fail, it just only a technical rebound. Anyway, i pick this share as long term investment.

Posted by VenFx > 2016-10-18 22:08 | Report Abuse

我 见证了 Dudu 大的粉丝群众立量 。

Posted by Koon Bee > 2016-10-18 23:42 | Report Abuse

I also in rgb

Posted by moneyinc > 2016-10-18 23:47 | Report Abuse

wait to collect profit

Posted by younginvestor92 > 2016-10-19 09:39 | Report Abuse

dudu=paperplane=maomaochong hahahhaha

Posted by ooihk899 > 2016-10-19 10:29 | Report Abuse

Looks like one day show only. Haiz....

Posted by Yunqi > 2016-10-19 10:32 | Report Abuse

Really disappoint again.

Posted by kai8994 > 2016-10-19 10:51 | Report Abuse

It's a free market, we cant stop the day traders and daily fluctuations. Learn to assess value of the company and wait for it :)