The interest expenses is a certainty (RM70m+ a year) while the revenue expected to be generated from the new rigs is uncertain, especially during this moment,,when oil price is staying at USD60-USD70...any mismatch between their actual revenue and their financial obligations will be a great danger to Perisai.This has yet to take into the consideration of the potential rise in interest rate in the next 2 years. I personally see there will be further downside risk in it's share prices in next year.
I agree. First half of 2015 is going to be tough. It will only recover after Perisai 102 (due to be completed in mid-2015) commences operation and after they can find charterers for Enterprise 3 and Rubicon. But the fact that the company is going through a rough patch is already reflected in the current price. If I am not mistaken, it has fallen the most among all the oil and gas counters (from RM1.60 to 50 sen).
Price has retraced abt 70% from it's peak (around RM1.70) and it seems yummy at this moment. However, their results for the next 2-3 quarters shouldn't be sexy and I am expecting further selling pressure. Anyway, it's now under my watchlist and will see how the big picture goes (Oil prices, M'sia's economy). The recent sharp plunged in all our oil and gas stocks (Armada, MHB are trading below their IPO's price now while PCHEM once touched their IPO's price at RM5.05) are unseen before....Or can I say they are no longer enjoying the high PE valuations (20-30) and now have to keep up with their peers in the regional countries (PE below 10)
40 sen would be a more realistic bottom in my opinion, but that is just under the assumption that it will fall further. It may or may not happen. For all you know, the price might suddenly rebound. It could go either way.
Much as I agree that the company is going through a difficult period, I doubt there will be further downside risks to its share prices next year because the current selling spree is caused not so much by the decline in earnings, but by the panic due to falling oil prices. Once oil prices stabilise, all the oil and gas counters will rebound. Thereafter, it is unlikely perisai will ever revisit current prices again, even with all its debts, as I believe that at 50 sen, most, if not all the negatives have already been factored in.
Its all depending on oil price........if u think oil price will rebound soon then the current price seems reasonable after the recent sharp plunge...if u think oil price will go lower and may stay for a while then the worst has yet to come.....here I m referring to oil n gas counters as awhole....as for those with high borrowings then stay more cautious
murali is giving more realistic info on tp.. rather than stonenut shouting like a desperate housewife..mayb got burn until underwear gone.. for us who has capital to hold for long term. 50sen is a good buy.. if really drop till 40sen.. even better can collect more. rather than getting 4% 1 year FD, the return should hv be better with buying this counter
Guys the real battle going to come..America shoot back saying still profiting at usd25 per barrel... saudi going to kick their arse at Usd40 testing the water...good luck!
tat was when the time i wrote the comment.. it was holding strong at 52sen.. but well i bought at 5.05 later before closing so what ? no big deal, i can make anoher round of profit even up 1 cent.. no need to laugh at people. only people with no $$ are complaining becoz no $$ to buy at cheap price.
latest news! Oil price tumbles Monday as Morgan Stanley said crude prices could average as little as $53 per barrel in 2015,......jialat tomorrow wat will happen to our KLCI ????
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murali
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Posted by murali > 2014-12-06 11:15 | Report Abuse
The interest expenses is a certainty (RM70m+ a year) while the revenue expected to be generated from the new rigs is uncertain, especially during this moment,,when oil price is staying at USD60-USD70...any mismatch between their actual revenue and their financial obligations will be a great danger to Perisai.This has yet to take into the consideration of the potential rise in interest rate in the next 2 years. I personally see there will be further downside risk in it's share prices in next year.